Charles Ehlschlaeger

• PhD, Geography, UCSB
• Professor (Associate) at Engineer Research and Development Center; University of Illinois - Urbana

Risk analyses for geospatial activities are constantly undermined by plans that have been created by multiple organizations for unfamiliar geographies, involving imprecise data model and uncertain model parameters. Moreover, those responsible often have little capacity to communicate about complex geo-temporal patterns with fellow information creat...

Accurate uncertainty modelling of social activities is impossible using available geographic information data and typical geographic information system algorithms due to the Uncertain Geographic Context Problem (UGCoP). UGCoP worsens when data as vague or obsolete, competing social models are available, and parameter values are not fully known. Thi...

This research effort is developing a computational framework to support federated models of complex urban systems and enable information support for planning and response in emergency management. Systems analysis has been advocated to support emergency management activities, and there are a number of individual domain models designed to represent v...

My chapter is called "Narrative Foundations: Operational Advisor's Edition" and it starts on page 55. Entire paper Abstract: “Information” continues to demonstrate the vital and preeminent role it plays in enabling all of our sources of national power. From a military perspective, it must be adequately utilized and capitalized on to succeed in sha...

Title: The Stochastic Simulation Approach: Tools for Representing Spatial Application Uncertainty Abstract: This dissertation's goal is to establish some practical methodology allowing decision makers to quantitatively describe spatial application uncertainty. Most geographic applications provide a decision maker with single answer, with no suppor...

The potential for social media analysis, both in terms of data availability and software development, continues to expand because of easy to use APIs. Twitter has increasingly been used to study various research topics such as election predictions, disease spread, sentiments on public transportation, and how individuals and groups interact within p...

The ready and Department human to respond assistance of to Defense security and disaster threats stands relief (HA/DR) across the globe. Rapid response relies on forecasting probabilities of needs far in advance to ensure that soldiers and materiel are sufficient and adequately prepositioned, which is challenging in rapidly changing human and natur...

This paper presents a methodology of mapping population-centric social, infrastructural, and environmental metrics at neighborhood scale. This methodology extends traditional survey analysis methods to create cartographic products useful in agent-based modeling and geographic information analysis. It utilizes and synthesizes survey microdata, sub-u...

Combatant commands (CCMD) develop theater campaign plans (TCP) to organize and align operations, actions, and activities that achieve strategic effect. However, structured data is sparse and planners often rely on the qualitative analysis of subject matter experts (SMEs) when developing theater security cooperation programs. A lack of comprehensive...

Downloading CGFinal.zip will provide copies of all animations, figures, and text from the article.

Socio-Cultural Analysis (SCA) has evolved rapidly over the past decade as conflicts in Afghanistan and Iraq have forced the DOD to reappraise the techniques used to collect information about the populations in conflict zones. As these two major conflicts wind down, the DOD must recognize that SCA must evolve again due the changing responsibilities...

Traditional DOD information collection techniques are not robust enough to understand the rapidly changing urban environment in very large urban areas. Developing world megacities are especially difficult to monitor due to large migration in- and out-flows causing quickly changing population as well as the urban dynamics that increase as population...

This paper emerged from the “A World in Transformation: Challenges and Opportunities” Strategic Multi-layer Assessment (SMA) Conference in November 2012.2 Leaders from across the USG addressed the emerging challenges of the 21st century for defense analysts, planners, and operators. The first decade of the 21st century has ushered in a period of ra...

This White Volume assesses U.S. long term national security challenges, employing a global perspective that accounts for the changing political, economic, social, and psychological profiles of populations, and the rapid changes they experience in a globally connected information environment. It addresses many of the key national security challenges...

This chapter documents a simulation model developed to examine the dynamics of intimate partner violence (IPV) in a Midwestern US city. IPV is the term for personal abuse among intimate heterosexual partners. It affects all races and income levels, but the individuals at highest risk are African American, immigrant, and lower-income females (Intima...

The primary objective of this work is to provide military installation planners with a source book on the state of the art in how to analyze the probability and risks of habitat fragmentation for animal Threatened and Endangered Species (TES). The document provides a review of habitat fragmentation issues, focusing on those of highest concern to Ar...

Ehlschlaeger, C. R. (2005). Incorporating Second-Order Properties in “Digital Populations” for Cluster Detection Analysis and Agent-Based Modeling. Proceedings of the 8th International Conference on GeoComputation, Ann Arbor MI USA, http://www.geocomputation.org/2005/, 31 July - 3 August 2005, URL: http://www.geocomputation.org/2005/Ehlschlaeger.pd...

Recent advances in computer analysis techniques based on remotely sensed satellite images can be used with other geographic information systems (GIS) data to establish a scientifically derived baseline of growth near military installations. Developing such a trend analysis is one step in support of a military initiative to identify and mitigate pre...

This research generates a unique 3-D transformation as part of an error distribution model for each equiprobable realization using a sharing function within a genetic algorithm. Instead of finding the single “optimal” 3-D transformation, we generate many possible transformations that will register one dataset to another. A single “optimal” solution...

Over a decade ago, researchers envisioned techniques for representing spatial data errors in GI systems for the purpose of assessing application uncertainty. Recently, researchers have envisioned "uncertainty buttons" or "error buttons" for spatial data and applications. By "pressing the error button," decision makers would understand the impact of...

Spatial data uncertainty models (SDUM) are necessary tools that quantify the reliability of results from geographical information system (GIS) applications. One technique used by SDUM is Monte Carlo simulation, a technique that quantifies spatial data and application uncertainty by determining the possible range of application results. A complete M...

The Department of Defense often must carry out actions beyond United States territorial limits By Presidential Executive Order, regulation, and international treaty agreement, agencies of the government may be responsible for assessing the environmental affects of actions that are carried out in host countries. Environmental resource concerns an ov...

Decision makers are often forced to rely on maps too imprecise for their GIS applications. Monte Carlo simulation, a technique that generates many versions of possible application results, is one method for representing uncertainty for applications using overly generalized maps. For the purposes of this paper, an overly-generalized map contains an...

This paper examines methodologies for dynamically displaying information about uncertainty. Modeling uncertainty in elevation data results in the generation of dozens or hundreds of realizations of the elevation surface. Producing animations of these surfaces is an approach to exploratory data visualization that may assist the researcher in underst...

This work uses a stochastic simulation approach to explore the impact of uncertainty in digital elevation data within the context of the least-cost path algorithm. A method for deriving accuracy parameters from higher accuracy data, taking into account the impact of spatial autocorrelation, is explicated. It is demonstrated that the spatial complex...

Thesis (Ph.D.)--University of California, Santa Barbara, 1998. This dissertation's goal is to establish some practical methodology allowing decision makers to quantitatively describe spatial application uncertainty. Most geographic applications provide a decision maker with single answer, with no supporting information about the reliability of the...