Charles M. Bundrick

University of West Florida | UWF

Three-decade-old research suggests that although regression coefficients obtained with ordinary least squares (OLS) are optimal for fitting a model to a sample, unless the N over which the model was estimated is large, they are generally not very much superior and frequently inferior to equal weights or unit weights for making predictions in a vali...

In this paper a simulation technique borrowed from civil engineering is applied to American presidential elections to explore the key relationship between federal spending and incumbent reelection, represented by the fiscal model. On the one hand, as Machiavelli would have understood, an expansionary fiscal policy militates against incumbent reelec...

The October 2008 issue of PS published a symposium of presidential and congressional forecasts made in the summer leading up to the election. This article is an assessment of the accuracy of their models. The presidential election forecast made with the Fiscal Model three months before Election Day put the incumbents' share of the two-party vote (V...

In 2004, for the first time the fiscal model was employed for the purpose of real-time, ex ante forecasting of a presidential election. The results were encouraging (Cuzán and Bundrick 2005). This year, however, the model encounters a set of challenging conditions, relevant only to it, never seen in the data before. In this paper, we briefly summar...

Models for forecasting the outcome of elections to the U. S. House of Representatives have not been particularly successful (Jones and Cuzán 2006). To cite the most recent example, in 2002, when the Republicans added to their majority, three forecasting models designed by distinguished political scientists had wrongly predicted that the Democrats w...

In this paper we apply a simulation technique borrowed from civil engineering to the fiscal model of presidential elections. In this model, federal spending policy and presidential election outcomes are interrelated. On the one hand, as Machiavelli would have understood, an expansionary fiscal policy militates against incumbent reelection but a cut...

This paper compares the forecast of the 2004 presidential election generated with the fiscal model with those produced with models included in what we call the Campbell Collection, after the editor or co-editor of several successive special issues of P.S. Political Science and Politics devoted to forecasting. The analysis shows that the fiscal mode...

We tested the effects of four different sediment types collected from northern Gulf of Mexico estuarine systems on macroinfaunal colonization and community development in our laboratory flow-through microcosm system. Four sediments, types included , a beach sand, two fine-grained muds, but from different locations, and a 50:50 mixture of one of the...

This study was undertaken to compare the frequencies of vaginal infections among human immunodeficiency virus-infected women with those among human immunodeficiency virus-seronegative women. Human immunodeficiency virus-seropositive women attending a comprehensive care center for human immunodeficiency virus disease at the outpatient department of...

This article updates, deepens, and extends previous articles published in this journal on the relation between fiscal policy and presidential elections. It presents evidence that is consistent with the view that voters reward fiscal frugality and punish fiscal expansion. The relationship is robust with respect to economic conditions, presidential i...

Maslow's contention that happiness includes striving and is more than a hedonistic construct was tested in a sample of 146 homeless men. Since all participants were homeless, environmental experiences can be considered as largely held constant, allowing an examination of personality and happiness under conditions of strain. Principal axis factor an...

To investigate peak performance, 40 business leaders described personal experiences through interviews and the Privette Experience Questionnaire. In order to discriminate processes of peak performance from personality attributes of business leaders, their questionnaire data were compared with parallel data from a sample of 41 university men. Multiv...

This research note presents a model in which fiscal policy, measured by changes in the ratio of federal outlays to gross national product between election years, is a factor in explaining and forecasting the outcome of the past 30 presidential elections. Compared with six forecasting models assembled in a special issue of this journal in the fall o...

Seasonal patterns (i.e., December 1986, and April and October 1987) in benthic macroinfaunal abundance,distribution, and taxa composition at 19 sites in Perdido Bay, AL/FL, are evaluated to assess the relative importance of environmental factors as determinants of community structure. A total of 46 taxa from five phyla were collected with diver-hel...

Items from the 40-item Brief Index of Self-actualization were submitted to principal factor analysis with promax and oblique rotation (N = 620). With eigenvalues greater than 1 and factor loadings of .40 or higher, 32 items were retained as four factors, without overlap. A revised Brief Index of Self-actualization is presented as an improved measur...

The three-season average of sediment potential denitrification rates (PDRs) (i.e., NOâ⁻ saturated; acetylene blockage method) for five study areas within urban bayous and bays in the Pensacola Bay area, Florida, ranged between 43 and 223 nmol of N g⁻¹ h⁻¹. Average PDRs extrapolated to a unit area basis approximated 500 to 1000 μmol of N mâ...

Artificial reef fish assemblages have the potential to alter the trophic structure of the nearby fauna by changing the available forage food. As the number and biomass of fish attracted to artificial reefs increases, they can reduce the potential energy available to sustain the assemblage. During 1994 we investigated the impact that artificial reef...

This article builds on our previous work, which showed that presiden tial popularity in Costa Rica is responsive to economic conditions. Here the analysis covers, in addition to Costa Rica, four sister republics which only recently have undergone democratization. We find that, as in the United States, presidential popularity in Central America rise...

Researchers interested in homeless persons have concentrated on disease, overlooking assets. The content of this paper challenges researchers to a more comprehensive view of homeless samples to include mental wellness. Recommendations for research are suggested.

To compare Taiwanese and Americans on selected experiential personality dimensions, the Experience Questionnaire was translated and tested with 27 Taiwanese in an American university. Descriptions by 129 Taiwanese of peak performance, peak experience, misery, failure, sport, and average events were compared with those made by 123 Americans. Analysi...

A 42-d flow-through experiment was conducted to evaluate the effects of the organo-phosphate pesticide, chlorpyrifos, and microcosm size (small: 144 cm2; large: 400 cm2) on benthic estuarine macroinvertebrate colonization. Nested central and perimeter (outside margin) cores were used to assess animal distribution within microcosms. Fine-grained, or...

Visual census (5-min point-count, 100 m2) was used to estimate fish assemblage parameters associated with artificial reef variables from 64 reefs over a 3-yr period in the northern Gulf of Mexico. Dependent variables, recorded by divers [i.e., number of species, number of individuals, length (TL in cm), and species diversity (H′)], were analyzed fo...

We examined marine benthic macroinvertebrate colonization and community structure at multiple spatial scales (study areas, reference and disposal sites, and depth zones within sites) within a 3-day period at three relatively widely separated (ca 60 km) dredged material disposal areas (Mermentau and Atchafalaya Rivers and Freshwater Bayou) in coasta...

Fiscal policy is both a contributor to and an effect of presidential electoral fortunes in the United States. An analysis of presidential election results between 1880 and 1992 shows that, except in periods of major war, an increase in the ratio of federal outlays to GNP has a negative effect on presidential reelection independent of inflation or g...

A total of 577 visual surveys (each of 5 min in duration and 100 m2 in area) were conducted throughout 1990 and 1991 at 32 locations off four Canary islands (i.e., Alegranza, Fuerteventura, Gran Canaria and Tenerife) with the objects of describing the coastal fish community, comparing the differences in the fish fauna within and between these islan...

Two of Maslow's concepts of peak experiences, defined as moments of highest happiness, were explored. First, these moments have many triggers but are widely recognized and identified in common ways. Second, although transitory, peak experiences often have lasting consequences. Using the Experience Questionnaire, 30 realtors described personal peak...

A40-item Brief Index of Self-Actualization was developed from Sumerlin's 65-item Personal Attitude Survey. The new instrument was developed wholly from Maslow's composite writings to measure his self-actualization model. The Personal Attitude Survey is composed of items written to capture 11 features that Abraham Maslow used to describe a self-actu...

Two six-week laboratory experiments were conducted to evaluate effects of pesticides and microcosm size on benthic estuarine macroinvertebrate recolonization. Sediments fortified with the pesticides (fenvalerate: controls, 5 (low) and 50 µg g−1 wet sediment (high); endosulfan: controls, 1 (low) and 10 µg g−1 wet sediment (high)) were fine-grained,...

Examined the relationship between physical self-efficacy as an appraisal of subjective biology and self-actualization in a sample of 160 Black and White graduate and undergraduate students. An r of .46 supports the association of subjective biology and self-actualization. Whereas there were no gender or racial differences in scores on self-actuali...

Religious values in counseling and preferences for religious or secular counseling were investigated in two geographic areas. Over-all, 164 respondents distinguished religious from secular counseling and endorsed the importance of religious issues and the availability of counseling which can deal with religious issues. 51 preferred religious counse...

Microcosms containing defaunated, fine estuarine sediments were field deployed to assess the effects of microcosm size on the rate of benthic macroinvertebrate recolonization and resulting community structure. Four sizes of microcosms (square acrylic plastic boxes: 7 cm side−1, 12 cm side−1, 20 cm side−1, and 32 cm side−1, all 6-cm deep) were deplo...

Twelve plastic (polyolefin), cone-shaped artificial reef modules were deployed in 6.5 m of water in the Choctawhatchee Bay estuary to evaluate their effectiveness as an artificial habitat for fishes. The reef group consisted of four sets, each comprised of three modules or units. Holes (15, 20 and 25 cm diam) were cut into the sides of the modules...

Point count surveys (5 min, 100 m2) were conducted to gather fish assemblage data on the efficacy of using FADs and/or cinder blocks to increase fishery resources in an area along the southern coast of Gran Canaria. A comparison between the pre- and post-deployment faunal parameters indicates that 16 more species were attracted to the study area. T...

In this study, the psychological functioning of patients with chronic post-traumatic headache (PTH), chronic combination headache and chronic low back pain without headache, whose time of onset was similar, and a matched group of controls was investigated. The Symptom Checklist 90-Revised (SCL-90-R), State-Trait Anger Expression Inventory (STAXI),...

Five laboratory studies of benthic macroinvertebrate recolonization were conducted for six‐week periods to evaluate the effects of physical scaling factors (i.e. microcosm size, seawater flow rates and sediment depth) on benthic community structure. Design variables included four open‐faced acrylic containers of size‐7, ‐12, ‐20 and ‐32 cm/side; se...

In this analysis of racial confounds in the study of homelessness and self-actualization, 100 black and 71 white homeless men from a mission and a street environment were compared to test the hypothesis that the prototypes of black and white homeless men are different. Discriminant analysis of items from the Short Index of Self-actualization of Jon...

1 Many thanks to an anonymous reviewer of this journal, to Ray Fair, and to Randall Jones of the University of Central Oklahoma, from whose comments on earlier work of ours we have profited, for their criticisms and suggestions. Also, we are grateful to William Niskanen and Sam Peltzman who, at our request, offered suggestions to help us to explain...

The community variables (number of species, number of individuals, and species diversity) describing the assemblage were generally similar for all three recording methods but audio recorded parameters were higher in magnitude. Slate and audio techniques were more similar to each other than each was to video with regard to the assemblage variables....

Examined data from 123 college students to assess the salience and independence of the constructs of peak experience (PE), peak performance (PP), and flow and to identify common and distinguishing characteristics of the 3 experiences. Ss completed the Experience Questionnaire (G. Privette, 1984). The independence of PE, PP, and flow as experiential...

This paper set out to test whether, as in North America and Europe, economic conditions have an effect on the popularity of the Costa Rican chief executive. The results are positive: regression analysis demonstrates that in Costa Rica presidential popularity is enhanced by economic growth and damaged by inflation. These findings would seem to stren...

Intersexuality in the form of arrhenoidy, induced by environmental factors, is documented for the mosquitofish, Gambusia affinis (Howell et al. 1980). The masculinized condition of the secondary sex characters (chiefly the anal fin) among female mosquitofish occurs in stream sections receiving kraft mill effluent (KME), but is entirely absent both...

Reef fish assemblage survey results using Transect, Point, and Random in situ visual assessment techniques were evaluated and compared on a coral reef biotope off SW Puerto Rico. Parameters compared were: number of species, number of individuals, and species diversity. Divers using the Random technique recorded the highest number of species per sur...

Tested the efficacy of the Experience Questionnaire by addressing accessibility and salience of experiential data and independence of construct events. Data on construct events (peak performance, peak experience, flow, average events, misery, and failure) were gathered from 123 adults. Construct independence and salience of experiential data were s...

The study examined the effects on self-actualization of CETA supervisors who participated in a Rational Behavioral Training (RBT) group for 2-hour meetings over an 8-week period. The Personal Orientation Inventory (POI), an instrument that measures self-actualization, was administered to experimental and control groups prior to and after the group...

High School students who have had successful experience with elementary algebra, naive set theory, plane geometry, and mathematical systems form the audience for whom this paper was written. It is hoped, however, that others, too, will find it appropriate and enjoyable. It provides an example of a finite geometry; the axioms for a nine-point geomet...

This paper reports on a set of simulations of a fiscal model of American presidential elections previously developed by the authors in which, independently of economic conditions, fiscal expansion and consecutive terms in office combine to reduce the percent of the two-party vote going to the incumbents, thus contributing to their defeat. The model...

To compare psychological processes of peak, average, and failing performance in sport, the Experience Questionnaire was administered to adults (aged 21–35 yrs) who were not elite athletes. Data included 20 peak performances, 38 average performances, and 18 failing performances, all self-assessed. Discriminant analyses and multivariate analysis of v...