Chantelle Burton

Chantelle Burton
Met Office · Hadley Centre

Doctor of Philosophy

About

25
Publications
9,898
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455
Citations
Introduction

Publications

Publications (25)
Article
Full-text available
Timely spatially explicit warning of areas with high fire occurrence probability is an important component of strategic plans to prevent and monitor fires within South American (SA) Protected Areas (PAs). In this study, we present a five-level alert system, which combines both climatological and anthropogenic factors, the two main drivers of fires...
Article
Full-text available
Unprecedented fire events in recent years are leading to a demand for improved understanding of how climate change is already affecting fires, and how this could change in the future. Increased fire activity in South America is one of the most concerning of all the recent events, given the potential impacts on local ecosystems and the global climat...
Article
Full-text available
The sudden increase in Amazon fires early in the 2019 fire season made global headlines. While it has been heavily speculated that the fires were caused by deliberate human ignitions or human-induced landscape changes, there have also been suggestions that meteorological conditions could have played a role. Here, we ask two questions: were the 2019...
Technical Report
Full-text available
Os incêndios florestais e queimadas na América do Sul atingiram máximos de ocorrências entre fevereiro e junho, e também entre agosto e outubro de 2020, com esses oito meses sendo os valores mais altos já registrados desde 2011. Durante março, abril e maio de 2020, respectivamente, os focos de queimadas foram 21%, 49% e 10% maiores do que os picos...
Technical Report
Full-text available
This report identifies priority areas with a high probability of fire threat, in order to support decision making and planning strategies to mitigate the risk and impact of fires. The focus is on South American protected areas, Brazilian settlements and rural private properties in the Brazilian Amazon. These areas have an institutional structure or...
Technical Report
Full-text available
Este informe identifica las áreas prioritarias que presentan una alta probabilidad de amenaza de incendio, con el fin de apoyar la toma de decisiones y la planificación de estrategias para mitigar el riesgo y el impacto de los incendios. La atención se ha centrado en las zonas protegidas de América del Sur, los asentamientos brasileños y las propie...
Chapter
Observational studies of atmospheric CO2, land ecosystems, and ocean processes show that variability in the carbon cycle is closely related with ENSO. Years with a warm anomaly in the tropical Pacific show a faster CO2 rise due to weaker land carbon sinks, particularly in the tropics, with a partial offset by stronger net uptake by oceans. The oppo...
Technical Report
Full-text available
This Technical Note, produced in English, Portuguese and Spanish, identifies priority areas for reducing the likelihood of burning and forest fires in South America between August and October 2020. In South America, we identified 117 Protected Areas (PA) in a situation of High Alert and Alert. In total, there are more than 287,000 km2 and 146,000 k...
Article
Full-text available
El Niño years are characterized by a high sea surface temperature anomaly in the Equatorial Pacific Ocean, which leads to unusually warm and dry conditions over many fire-prone regions globally. This can lead to an increase in burned area and emissions from fire activity, and socio-economic, and environmental losses. Previous studies using satellit...
Article
Full-text available
In this study, we use simulations from seven global vegetation models to provide the first multi‐model estimate of fire impacts on global tree cover and the carbon cycle under current climate and anthropogenic land use conditions, averaged for the years 2001‐2012. Fire reduces the tree covered area and vegetation carbon storage by 10%. Regionally t...
Preprint
Full-text available
The sudden increase in Amazon fires early in the 2019 fire season made global headlines. While it has been heavily speculated that the fires were caused by deliberate human ignitions or human-induced landscape changes, there have also been suggestions that meteorological conditions could have played a role. Here, we ask two questions: were the 2019...
Conference Paper
Full-text available
A series of fire events have captured the attention of the public and press in the last couple of years. South America, for example, saw the largest increase in fire count in nearly 10 years, mainly in areas historically associated with deforestation in Amazonia. Meanwhile, South Eastern Australia has seen a number of devastating bush fires in rece...
Article
Full-text available
We investigate the skill of the GloSea5 seasonal forecasting system for two carbon cycle processes, which are strong contributors to global CO 2 variability: the impact of meteorological conditions on CO 2 uptake by vegetation (characterised by net primary productivity, NPP), and on fire occurrences (characterised by fire risk indices). Current sea...
Preprint
Seasonal forecasts of global CO₂ concentrations rely on the well-documented relationship with the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO), combined with estimated anthropogenic emissions. Here, we investigate the skill of the GloSea5 seasonal forecasting system for two carbon cycle processes that underlie the global CO₂–ENSO relationship: the impact of...
Article
Full-text available
Anthropogenically driven declines in tropical savannah burnt area1,2 have recently received attention due to their effect on trends in global burnt area3,4. Large-scale trends in ecosystems where vegetation has adapted to infrequent fire, especially in cooler and wetter forested areas, are less well understood. Here, small changes in fire regimes c...
Article
Full-text available
Disturbance of vegetation is a critical component of land cover, but is generally poorly constrained in land surface and carbon cycle models. In particular, land-use change and fire can be treated as large-scale disturbances without full representation of their underlying complexities and interactions. Here we describe developments to the land surf...
Article
Full-text available
This paper shows recent progress in our understanding of climate variability and trends in the Amazon region, and how these interact with land use change. The review includes an overview of up-to-date information on climate and hydrological variability, and on warming trends in Amazonia, which reached 0.6–0.7°C over the last 40 years, with 2016 as...
Article
Full-text available
The terrestrial biosphere shows substantial inertia in its response to environmental change. Hence, assessments of transient changes in ecosystem properties to 2100 do not capture the full magnitude of the response realized once ecosystems reach an effective equilibrium with the changed environmental boundary conditions. This equilibrium state can...
Article
Full-text available
The representation of disturbance is a critical factor in land-surface modelling, but is generally poorly constrained in carbon cycle models. In particular, land-use change and fire can be treated as large-scale disturbances without full representation of their underlying complexities and interactions. Here we describe developments to the land surf...
Article
The commitment to limit warming to 1.5 °C as set out in the Paris Agreement is widely regarded as ambitious and challenging. It has been proposed that reaching this target may require a number of actions, which could include some form of carbon removal or Solar Radiation Management in addition to strong emission reductions. Here we assess one theor...
Conference Paper
Full-text available
Global fire models typically describe fire as a consequence of fuel load, moisture, natural and anthropogenic ignitions, and land use suppression. A lack of information on the temporal and spatial distribution of these controls has meant that their simulated effects on predicting burnt area are largely untested. Despite this, there is a pervasive a...
Article
Full-text available
Idealized climate change simulations with a new physical climate model, HadGEM3-GC2 from The Met Office Hadley Centre are presented and contrasted with the earlier MOHC model, HadGEM2-ES. The role of atmospheric resolution is also investigated. The Transient Climate Response (TCR) is 1.9 K/2.1 K at N216/N96 and Effective Climate Sensitivity (ECS) i...

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Cited By

Projects

Project (1)
Project
Inference of drivers of fire regime change and unusual fire events.