Chantal Le Mouël

French National Institute for Agriculture, Food, and Environment (INRAE) | INRAE · Structures et Marchés Agricoles, Ressources et Territoires (SMART-LERECO)

Organic farming has gained attention as a sustainable form of agriculture. However, concerns have been raised about its relatively low productivity. This paper reviews 23 modeling studies devoted to the large-scale implementation of organic farming that explicitly consider food supply and demand, with a particular focus on the capability of the sim...

The need for an agroecological transition is regularly advocated by many actors and policymakers on the European scene, but many questions arise regarding the potential consequences that this transition may have on the rest of the world. Using a world biomass balance model, in this paper we show that a deep agroecological transition in the EU, if a...

Unlabelled: The dependence on imports of the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region for its food needs has increased steadily since the early 1960s, from 10% to about 40%. This import dependence could continue to rise in coming decades due to the projected MENA population growth and the expected negative impacts of climate change on the region...

This Study presents the key results of a research that analyses the implications of an ambitious agroecological transition across Europe, following the TYFA scenario. Published in 2018, what it proposes by 2050 is fully aligned with the objectives that the European Farm to Fork and Biodiversity strategies aim to achieve by 2030, in particular rega...

The nutrition transition transforms food systems globally and shapes public health and environmental change. Here we provide a global forward-looking assessment of a continued nutrition transition and its interlinked symptoms in respect to food consumption. These symptoms range from underweight and unbalanced diets to obesity, food waste and enviro...

Scenarios describe plausible and internally consistent views of the future. They can be used by scientists, policymakers and entrepreneurs to explore the challenges of global environmental change given an appropriate level of spatial and sectoral detail and systematic development. We followed a nine-step protocol to extend and enrich a set of globa...

Facing a growing and more affluent world population, changing climate and finite natural resources, world food systems will have to change in the future. The aim of the Agrimonde-Terra foresight study was to build global scenarios linking land use and food security, with special attention paid to overlooked aspects such as nutrition and health, in...

Moving towards a more sustainable future requires concerted actions, particularly in the context of global climate change. Integrated assessments of agricultural systems (IAAS) are considered valuable tools to provide sound information for policy and decision-making. IAAS use storylines to define socio-economic and environmental framework assumptio...

Les scénarios d’usage des terres et de sécurité alimentaire en 2050, issus de la prospective Agrimonde-Terra, offrent l’opportunité de réexaminer les termes du débat sur la place des productions animales dans l’usage des terres et la sécurité alimentaire, et par suite sur leur rôle au regard de l’avenir des systèmes alimentaires globaux. Les résult...

Increasing global levels of meat consumption are a threat to the environment and to human health. To identify measures that may change consumption patterns towards more plant- based foods, it is necessary to improve our understanding of the causes behind the demand for meat. In this paper we use data from 137 different countries to identify and ass...

Purpose Numerous policy instruments are applied to agricultural production in the European Union (EU27). Implementing them may significantly influence environmental impacts of agricultural production. A consequential life cycle assessment (CLCA) approach was used to investigate potential environmental impacts of two EU27 policy instruments: dairy q...

After a first foresight study on ‘World food security in 2050’ (Agrimonde), CIRAD and INRA have turned their attention to a new foresight exercise on ‘Land use and food security in 2050’ (Agrimonde-Terra). This new study seeks to highlight levers that could modify ongoing land-use patterns for improved food and nutrition security. Agrimonde-Terra...

Taking into account the evolution of the various components of the food and agricultural system in the Middle East-North Africa region since early 1960, we will seek to chart the trajectory of the increasing dependence on agricultural imports and to understand the current situation in the region and its sub-regions. To do this, we will focus succes...

The two reference scenarios and the results analysed previously rely on mere extensions of past trends and do not take into account possible breaks or ruptures other than those of accentuated climate change. Naturally, then, they are ‘scenarios of inaction’ which typically illustrate what might happen in the Middle East-North Africa region if ‘noth...

As we highlighted in the previous chapter, the large increase in agricultural imports in the Middle East-North Africa region between 1961 and 2011 is the result of a combination of several factors. A population explosion has combined with dietary changes and has led to a strong growth in demand for food and feed. Growth in regional agricultural pro...

Food Dependency in the Middle East and North Africa Region: Retrospective Analysis and Projections to 2050

At present, 40% of the agri-food needs of the Middle-East and North Africa (MENA) region is covered by imports, whereas this figure was just about 10% in the beginning of the 1960’s. Demographic growth and diet change has combined to increase food demand while the region’s agricultural production grew rapidly but much less than demand. In this geop...

Comment nourrir le monde en 2050 ? Une revue des réponses issues des études existantes basées sur des scénarios globaux Contrairement à la prédiction de Malthus, la croissance de la production alimentaire mondiale a été suffisante pour répondre à l'augmentation de la demande alimentaire, engendrée par la croissance démographique et économique, sans...

In spite of the wave of liberalization undertaken during the last decades, the debate, among economists, on the links and causality between openness, growth and income distribution is still open. Empirical results most often suggest that, in the long run, more outward-oriented countries register better economic growth performance. However, this emp...

This paper provides a review of 25 scenario studies and a synthesis of their main responses on how to feed the world up to 2050. The review also points out significant uncertainty regarding the extent to which the different identified levers may help to feed the world sustainably up to 2050. This allows us to emphasize some areas where further work...

Middle-East – North-Africa’s food and agricultural system: a retrospective analysis (1961-2011) Drawing from the Fao balances of commodities uses and resources from 1961 to 2011, this study shows that the great food dependency of Mena region is explained by the demographic growth, dietary evolution and the simultaneous changes of animal feeding t...

Since the 1st of April 2015, European dairy quotas, one of the iconic instruments of the Common Agricultural Policy, have been removed. With this removal, the European Commission expects to develop a more competitive and market-oriented dairy sector in light of increasing world food demand. In countries such as France, where quotas were administrat...

Fiche détaillée de l'ouvrage : http://www.quae.com/fr/r5074-la-dependance-alimentaire-de-lafrique-du-nord-et-du-moyen-orient-a-lhorizon-2050.html La région Afrique du Nord – Moyen-Orient est marquée par sa dépendance croissante vis-à-vis des importations agricoles. Cette dépendance devrait globalement s’accentuer et atteindre, notamment en cas de...

Drawing from the FAO balances of commodities uses and resources from 1961 to 2011, this study shows that the great food dependency of MENA region is explained by the demographic growth, dietary evolution and the simultaneous changes of animal feeding toward imported plant products (cereals and press cakes). These changes imply a six fold increase i...

This 4-page brief détails the Agrimonde-Terra scenario-building method and conceptual Framework.

GlobAgri-AgT has been used to simulate the impacts on world and regional land use, agricultural production and agricultural trade of the five Agrimonde-Terra scenarios.

The Agrimonde-Terra’s “land use and food security” system encompasses 3 external drivers: global political, economic and social context, climate change and food diets; and 5 direct drivers: urban-rural relationships, farm structures, cropping systems, livestock systems and forest systems. Hypotheses about the future of these drivers up to 2050 have...

Installment 11 of Creating a Sustainable Food Future shows that for people who consume high amounts of meat and dairy, shifting to diets with a greater share of plant-based foods could significantly reduce agriculture’s pressure on the environment. It introduces a protein scorecard ranking foods from lowest (plant-based foods) to highest impact (be...

Installment 11 of Creating a Sustainable Food Future shows that for people who consume high amounts of meat and dairy, shifting to diets with a greater share of plant-based foods could significantly reduce agriculture’s pressure on the environment. It introduces a protein scorecard ranking foods from lowest (plant-based foods) to highest impact (be...

In this paper we provide an assessment of the impacts of RTAs on agricultural trade, putting emphasis on the role of rules of origin (RO) which are always part of these agreements. We distinguish trade in raw agricultural products and trade in processed food products. Our sample includes 180 countries over four time periods: 2001, 2004, 2007 and 20...

Working Paper SMART - LERECO N°14-04

The perception of the environmental advantages of biofuels was originally positive and their development was promoted around the world. Few years ago the concept of Land Use Change (LUC) started to modify this initial statement. LUC may be defined as change in the purpose for which land is used by humans (e.g. between crop land, grass land, forest...

Heterogeneous simulation results, particularly in terms of signs of effects, are not easily comprehensible for policy makers. It is well known that many factors can have a substantial bearing upon model outcomes. In that context, the objective of this paper is to highlight the key importance of policy instrument modeling as regards to the assessmen...

We investigate the determinants of agricultural land price in several regions in France over the period 1994-2011 using individual plots transaction data, with a particular emphasis on agricultural subsidies and nitrate zoning regulations. We found a positive but relatively small capitalisation effect of the total subsidies per hectare. We found ev...

In this chapter, the authors investigate the determinants of agricultural land price in several regions in France over the period 1994-2011 using individual plots transaction data, with a particular emphasis on agricultural subsidies and nitrate zoning regulations. They found evidence that agricultural subsidies capitalised at least to some extent....

We investigate farm size inequality in France using agricultural censuses and farm structure surveys at the NUTS3 level (‘départements’) during the period 1970–2007. Using calculated Gini coefficients, we show that farm size inequality has not systematically increased in France. An econometric analysis of the determinants of farm size inequality re...

Les enjeux de l'évolution de la Politique agricole commune (PAC) après 2013 sont étroitement liés à la situation qui prévaudra sur les marchés agricoles communautaires et internationaux dans la prochaine décennie. Nous proposons ici une synthèse et une discussion de l'information existante quant à l'évolution des marchés des produits agricoles aprè...

Impact de l’aide au commerce sur les échanges des pays receveurs : revue de la littérature et évaluation quantitative

L'Organisation commune de marché de la banane dans l'Union européenne : impact de la taille du contingent tarifaire appliqué aux bananes dollar et non traditionnelles ACP par Hervé Guyomard, Nadine Herrard, Catherine Laroche et Chantai Le Mouël Le 1er Juillet 1993, l'Union européenne (UE) a finalement instauré un marché commun de la banane. L'Organ...

Insertion des pays en développement dans le commerce mondial : diagnostic et typologie

Over the last decades, the number of farms has decreased while average farm size has increased in industrialised countries. We investigate whether these two concomitant trends have resulted in higher farmland concentration or not in the case of France. Deriving Gini coefficients as a measure of concentration from the estimation of parametric Lorenz...

The objective of this paper is to provide an overview of existing literature, both theoretically and empirically, on the extent to which agricultural subsidies do translate into higher land values and rents and finally benefit landowners instead of agricultural producers. Our review shows that agricultural support policy instruments contribute to i...

This paper applies a five-step approach to the investigation of the relationship between public subsidies, namely CAP direct payments, and managerial efficiency for French COP and beef farms in 2000. Managerial efficiency scores are calculated using a four-step approach that allows disentangling managerial inefficiency from unfavourable external co...

The recent implementation of the CAP Single Area Payments in the EU new Member States raises the question of whether a quick capitalisation of these payments is expected. capitalisation of public support to agriculture into land prices indicates that the benefits are partly transferred toward landowners rather than toward producers. This distributi...

This paper investigates the relationship between CAP direct payments and managerial efficiency for French crop and beef farms. Managerial efficiency scores are calculated using a four-step approach that allows to disentangle managerial inefficiency from other technical inefficiency components, notably what is due to unfavourable environment conditi...

The context of this study is the introduction of the Single Payment Scheme (SPS), providing decoupled income support to farmers via the Single Farm Payment (SFP), as the central element of the June 2003 Common Agricultural Policy (CAP) reform. France has chosen to implement a historical model (SFP based on the reference period 2000-2002) with the h...

The objective of this paper is to provide an overview of existing literature, both theoretically and empirically, on the extent to which agricultural subsidies do translate into higher land values and rents and finally benefit landowners instead of agricultural producers. Our review shows that agricultural support policy instruments contribute to i...

On 29 November 2005, the European Union (EU) unilaterally introduced a tariff of €176 per tonne to apply from 1 January 2006 to bananas imported from countries enjoying the Most Favoured Nation (MFN) status. The new EU trade policy includes a duty-free annual import quota of 775,000 tonnes for bananas originating from African, Caribbean and Paci...

The study proposes a way for accommodating the traditional Armington assumption to capture the possibility for a country to import imperfect substitutes as well as perfect substitutes for domestically produced goods. When this possibility is incorporated into a modelling framework, then a Common Agricultural Policy elimination scenario, including t...

The European Union is bound by World Trade Organisation agreements to move to a tariff-only import regime for bananas no later than 1 January 2006. What should change at that date is the trade regime, not the level of protection offered to African, Caribbean and Pacific (ACP) countries. This article provides an assessment of the trade impact of thi...

The European Union is bound by World Trade Organisation agreements to move to a tariff-only import system for bananas by no later than 1 January 2006. From that date, imports from non-ACP countries will be subject to a single tariff while ACP country bananas will continue to enter the EU market duty free. This regime will replace the highly contest...

The Environmental Stewardship Scheme provides payments to farmers for the provision of environmental services based on agricultural foregone income. This creates a potential incentive compatibility problem which, combined with an information asymmetry on farm land heterogeneity, could lead to adverse selection of farmers into the scheme. However, t...

This paper analyses and classifies four agricultural income support programmes (an output subsidy, a land subsidy, and a decoupled payment with and without mandatory production) according to their ability to achieve three domestic policy goals (income support, maintenance of a maximum number of farmers and reduction of negative externalities arisin...

numérisé, loi de King et modèle du Cobweb

This paper analyses and classifies four agricultural income support programmes (an output subsidy, a land subsidy, and a decoupled payment with and without mandatory production) according to their ability to achieve three domestic policy goals (income support, maintenance of a maximum number of farmers and reduction of negative externalities arisin...

Après avoir rappelé la genèse de la notion de multifonctionnalité et son traitement dans le cadre de l'Organisation mondiale du commerce, les auteurs abordent la question du lien entre la reconnaissance du caractère multifonctionnel de l'agriculture et de l'intervention de la puissance publique. Ils rappellent en premier lieu que l'existence de déf...

Analytical results in the literature suggest that counter-cyclical payments create risk-related incentives to produce even if they were "decoupled" under certainty (Hennessy, 1998). This paper develops a framework to assess the risk-related incentives to produce created by commodity programmes like the loan deficiency payments and the Counter-Cycli...