Céline Carrere

University of Geneva | UNIGE · Department of Economics

We explore the impact of the introduction and design of labor clauses (LCs) in preferential trade agreements (PTAs) on bilateral trade flows over the period 1990-2014. While it is not a priori clear if the inclusion of LCs in PTAs will decrease or increase bilateral trade, we expect the direction of trade to matter, that is, we expect to observe th...

We embed a model of the labour market with sector-specific search-and-matching frictions into a Ricardian model with a continuum of goods to show that trade reduces unemployment in countries with comparative advantage in sectors with more efficient labour markets and leads to higher unemployment in countries with comparative advantage in sectors wi...

Gravity as both fact and theory is one of the great success stories of recent research on international trade, and has featured prominently in the policy debate over Brexit. We first review the facts, noting the overwhelming evidence that trade tends to fall with distance. We then introduce some expository tools for understanding CES theories of gr...

We develop a multicountry, multisector trade model featuring risk-averse workers, labor market frictions, unemployment benefits, and equilibrium unemployment. Trade opening leads to a reduction in unemployment when it simultaneously raises welfare and reallocates labor toward sectors with lower-than-average labor market frictions. We then estimate...

While the significant influence of cultural proximity on bilateral trade flows has been extensively documented in the literature, its possible role in times of crisis has not yet been raised. Relying on a panel estimation of a gravity model incorporating cultural proximity parameters, we evidence the existence of a significant surge in the impact o...

We study the effects of changes in trade openness on wages and employment across towns of different sizes, using Austrian regional data and the fall of the Iron Curtain as a quasi-experimental setting. We find improved access to foreign markets to boost both employment and nominal wages in border regions, but large towns tend to have larger wage re...

Comment l'ouverture au commerce international affecte-t-elle les régions qui y sont le plus exposées de par leur proximité aux frontières? Ce document résume les résultats de recherches empiriques récentes sur la question. Nos résultats démontrent que l'emploi et les salaires des bourgades et villages proches des frontières internationales croissen...

This paper focuses on developing countries’ pioneer exports to the OECD and obtains several important results on export dynamics, linking export experience and export survival. Using product level data at the SITC 5-digit level for 114 developing countries over the 1962–2009 period, we show that prior export experience obtained in non-OECD markets...

The ‘distance effect' measuring the elasticity of trade flows to distance has been found to be rising since the early 1970s in a host of studies based on the gravity model, leading observers to call it the ‘distance puzzle'. However, this puzzle is regularly challenged by new developments in the specification of the gravity equation or in its estim...

Dans un article théorique récent, Venables (2011) montre que lorsqu’une intégration régionale est créée entre pays pauvres et riches en ressources naturelles, les gains de l’intégration sont inégalement répartis entre les deux catégories de pays. Nous testons cette théorie sur les accords régionaux de la région Moyen-Orient et Afrique du Nord, nota...

This paper builds on theoretical predictions that show that gains from regional integration are unevenly distributed between resource rich and poor countries. It explores the effects of different integration schemes in the Middle East and North Africa. The results suggest that within the Pan Arab Free Trade Agreement, there is significant trade cre...

Using an “event analysis”, this paper complements the cross-country approach to the study of fiscal correlates of growth. Data on fiscal expenditures and growth for a database of 140 countries (118 developing countries) over 1972–2005 are reorganized around turning points providing a summary but encompassing description of “what is in the data”. Fo...

This paper surveys the empirical literature on export and import diversification and its linkages with growth. We review widely used measures of diversification and the evidence about their evolution focusing on how export diversification relates to trade liberalization and economic development. We also discuss the linkages between trade diversific...

We study the response of regional employment and nominal wages to trade liberalization, exploiting the natural experiment provided by the opening of Central and Eastern European markets after the fall of the Iron Curtain in 1990. Using data for Austrian municipalities, we examine differential pre- and post-1990 wage and employment growth rates betw...

This paper explores the evolution of OECD imports over time, measuring their concentration across origin countries at the product level. The authors find evidence of diversification followed, in the very last years of the sample period (post-2000), by a slight re-concentration. This re-concentration is entirely explained by the growing importance o...

With the reduction in tariff barriers, Non-tariff and behind-the-border measures (NTM and BTB) have increased in importance. This paper surveys the state of knowledge with the view to drawing implications for policy suggestions to reduce those NTM barriers that are welfare reducing. Following a description of data bases and their shortcomings, the...

Alternative approaches to estimating the effects of nontariff measures (NTMs) on trade flows are discussed and evaluated critically. Recent econometric studies point to three results: (i) NTM restrictiveness measures based on an aggregate of ‘core’ NTMs are more restrictive than existing tariffs and, because of export composition towards agricultur...

This paper assesses the impact of internal infrastructure and landlockedness on Central Asian trade. The impact of landlockedness on Central Asian's trade costs is split into several components, using a panel gravity equation estimated on a large sample of countries (167 countries over 1992-2004). Our findings highlight that an improvement in the o...

This paper explores the evolution of OECD imports over time and as a function of income levels, measuring the concentration of those imports across origin countries at the product level. We find evidence of diversification followed, in the very last years of the sample period (post-2000), by a slight reconcentration. This reconcentration is entirel...

The"distance effect"measuring the elasticity of trade flows to distance has been rising since the early 1970s in a host of studies based on the gravity model, leading observers to call it the"distance puzzle". This paper reviews the evidence and explanations. Using an extensive data set of 124 countries over the period 1970-2005, the authors confir...

Abstract The paper develops two synthetic measures at the HS-10 level to depict effective market access for a country receiving preferential access and applies these to the market access ASEAN members would receive following the implementation of an FTA with the EU. First, the measures show that current effective market access for ASEAN EBA members...

The “distance effect” measuring the elasticity of trade flows to distance has been to be rising since the early 1970s in a host of studies based on the gravity model, leading observers to call it the “distance puzzle”. We review the evidence and explanations. Using an extensive data set of 124 countries over the period 1970-2005, we confirm the exi...

Alternative approaches to estimating the effects of nontariff measures (NTMs) on trade flows are discussed and evaluated critically. Recent econometric studies point to three results: (i) NTM restrictiveness measures based on an aggregate of ‘core’ NTMs are more restrictive than existing tariffs and, because of export composition towards agricultur...

With the reduction in tariff barriers, Non-tariff and behind-the-border measures (NTM and BTB) have increased in importance. This paper surveys the state of knowledge with the view to drawing implications for policy suggestions to reduce those NTM barriers that are welfare reducing. Following a description of data bases and their shortcomings, the...

LDCs hoped that the DOHA round would bring them greater market access in OECD countries than for non-LDCs. Using HS-6 tariff level data for the US and the EU for 2004, this paper estimates that, once the erosion from preferential access into the EU to non-LDCs is taken into account, LDCs have about a 3% preferential margin in the EU market. In the...

The paper develops two synthetic measures at the HS-10 level to depict effective market access for a country receiving preferential access and applies these to the market access ASEAN members would receive on impact following the implementation of an FTA with the EU. These measures reveal quite a different picture than one that would be gleaned fro...

The paper develops two synthetic measures at the HS-10 level to depict effective market access for a country receiving preferential access and applies these to the market access ASEAN members would receive on impact following the implementation of an FTA with the EU. First, the measures show that current effective market access for ASEAN EBA member...

By taking into account scale economies in transport, this paper challenges the accepted pessimistic view that regional preferential trade agreements (PTAs) between developing countries are harmful in welfare terms. In this paper, we assume the adoption of new transport technology when trade increases and show that, given the standard effect of a PT...

The paper explores the evolution of export diversification patterns along the economic development path. Using a large database with 159 countries over 17 years at the HS6 level of disaggregation (4'998 product lines) we look for action at the "intensive" and "extensive" margins (diversification of export values among active product lines and by ad...

This paper complements the cross-country approach by examining the correlates of growth acceleration in per capita gross domestic product around"significant"public expenditure episodes by reorganizing the data around turning points, or events. The authors define a growth event as an increase in average per capita growth of at least 2 percentage poi...

This paper complements the cross-country approach by examining the correlates of GDP per capita growth acceleration around "significant" public expenditure episodes by reorganizing the data around turning points, or "events". Here we define (i) a growth event as an increase in average per capita growth of at least 2 percentage points (pp) sustained...

Using data on preference and utilization rates of NAFTA for Mexican exports to the United States in 2001, this chapter proposes a method to estimate the likely costs of different Rules of Origin (RoO) for final and intermediate goods and compares these results with those obtained using the synthetic index proposed by Estevadeordal (2000). Econometr...

This paper uses a gravity model to assess ex-post regional trade agreements. The model includes 130 countries and is estimated with panel data over the period 1962–1996. The introduction of the correct number of dummy variables allows for identification of Vinerian trade creation and trade diversion effects, while the estimation method takes into a...

Building on earlier work by Estevadeordal (2000), we construct a synthetic index (R-index) intending to capture the restrictiveness of rules of origin in preferential trading agreements. The R-index is applied to NAFTA and the Single List of the EU s PANEURO system covering all of the EU s preferential trade agreements. The R-index highlights how a...

Preferential market access, either in the recent OECD initiatives or in the North-South FTAs require the use of rules of origin (RoO). Recent studies have questioned the extent of market access provided by these preferences. Using data on Mexican exports to the US in 2001, this paper estimates the likely costs of different RoO for final and interme...

It has been widely argued that, with the decline in trade costs, the importance of distance has declined over time. On the other hand, most gravity models find that the importance of distance on bilateral trade has increased over time. This puzzle is examined here. The paper develops a new measure of the distance of trade (dot) and shows that the d...

The effective market access granted to textiles and apparel under the North American Free Trade Agreement (nafta) is estimated, taking into account the presence of rules of origin. First, estimates are provided of the effect of tariff preferences combined with rules of origin on the border prices of Mexican final goods exported to the United States...

This paper estimates the effective market access granted under NAFTA in textiles and apparel by combining two approaches. First, we estimate the effect of tariff preferences and rules of origin on the border prices of Mexican final goods exported to the US and of US intermediates exported to Mexico. We find that one third of the estimated rise in t...

Building on earlier work by Estevadeordal, we construct a synthetic index (R-index) intending to capture the restrictiveness on market access due to product specific rules of origin (PSRO) that apply at the tariff-line level. The R-index is constructed for rules of origins under NAFTA and under the single list applying to PANEURO, the new regime ap...

Building on earlier work by Estevadeordal, we construct a synthetic index (R-index) intending to capture the restrictiveness on market access due to product specific rules of origin (PSRO) that apply at the tariff-line level. The R-index is constructed for rules of origins under NAFTA and under the single list applying to PANEURO, the new regime ap...

This paper estimates the effective market-access granted under NAFTA in textiles and apparel by combining two approaches. First, we estimate the effect of tariff preferences and rules of origin on the border prices of Mexican final goods exported to the US and of US intermediates exported to Mexico.

The estimated coefficient of distance on the volume of trade is generally found to increase rather than decrease through time using the traditional gravity model of trade. This distance puzzle proved robust to several ad hoc versions of the model using data for 1962--96 for a large sample of 130 countries. The introduction of an "augmented" barrier...

It has been widely argued that, with the decline in trade costs (for example, transport and communication costs), the importance of distance has declined over time. If so, this would be a boon for countries located far from the main centers of economic activity. The authors examine the evolution of countries'distance of trade (DOT) from 1962-2000....

Preferential market access, either in the recent OECD initiatives or in the North-South FTAs require the use of rules of origin (RoO). Recent studies have questioned the extent of market access provided by these preferences. Using data on Mexican exports to the US in 2001, this paper estimates the likely costs of different RoO for final and interme...

This paper uses a gravity model to assess ex-post regional trade agreements. The model includes 130 countries and is estimated with panel data over the period 1962-1996. The introduction of the correct number of dummy variables allows for identification of Vinerian trade creation and trade diversion effects, while the estimation method takes into a...

The aim of this paper is (i) to assess the impact of regional agreements on members' trade in Sub-Saharan Africa (intra-regional trade as well as trade with the rest of the world), controlling for the other traditional determinants, including geography and transport costs and (ii) to compare the respective effect of the preferential trade agreement...

This paper reports panel gravity estimates of aggregate bilateral trade for 130 countries over the period 1962-96 in which the coefficient of distance is allowed to change over time. In a standard specification, in which transport costs are proxied only, it is found paradoxically that the absolute value of the elasticity of bilateral trade to dista...

The aim of this paper is to analyze the determinants of public health expenditure in developing countries. This is done through an econometric analysis of panel data for 61 countries. A special interest is devoted to the role of external financial constraints, on corruption and on two aspects of the socio-politic situation : socio-politic unrest an...