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Introduction
Early Warning and Early Action in the context of armed conflict - Anticipatory Action
Skills and Expertise
Publications
Publications (10)
Armed conflict increases people's vulnerability to climate extremes. Since many of these climate extremes are predictable beforehand, Early Warning Early Action (EWEA) can help protect people's lives, livelihoods, and wellbeing. While such EWEA systems exist in several countries, there is limited scientific knowledge about EWEA in conflict-affected...
People affected by conflict are particularly vulnerable to climate shocks and climate change, yet little is known about climate change adaptation in fragile contexts. While climate events are one of the many contributing drivers of conflict, feedback from conflict increases vulnerability, thereby creating conditions for a vicious cycle of conflict....
Within the humanitarian sector, there is a pressing need to scale up anticipatory action as climate change-related disasters increase. This article evaluates forecasts relating to extreme weather events – extreme rainfall, tropical cyclones, river flooding and storm surge – in Myanmar and the Philippines to assess the feasibility of using such fore...
• The increasingly severe impacts of cyclones, floods and drought in the Eastern Caribbean necessitates a rethink in the way OECS member states prepare for disasters and build longer-term resilience.
• Preparedness plans are typically out of date and disaster risk management agencies have limited resources. As a result, actions taken when extreme...
Forecast-based humanitarian action enables actors to start their work before a predicted disaster strikes. This can prevent the loss of many more lives and livelihoods than purely reactive humanitarian action ever could. However, to increase the impact, anticipatory actions could be expanded to conflict situations. This working paper provides an ov...
Impact-based forecasting enables anticipatory actions and revolutionises responses
to weather and climate crises: turning forecasts and warnings from descriptions of
what the weather will be into assessments of what the weather will be into
assessments of what the weather will do enables organisations and individuals across
the world to anticipate...
The Impact Before Instruments series of technical discussion papers has been produced through a partnership of the Start Network, the Red Cross Red Crescent Climate Centre and the International Federation of Red Cross and Red Crescent Societies (IFRC). The
series responds to the increasing interest in the use of disaster risk financing (DRF) syste...
In 2017, Bangladesh experienced the worst floods in recent decades. Based on a forecast and pre-defined trigger level, a Red Cross Red Crescent project distributed an unconditional cash grant of BDT 5000 (USD 60 equivalent) to 1039 poor households in highly vulnerable, flood-prone communities in the Brahmaputra river basin before an early flood pea...
• Interest in forecast-based early action for floods in Kenya is growing as a result of the detrimental floods in 2018.
• There are promising entry points for linking flood forecasts with social protection systems to reduce impacts.
• Anticipatory cash transfers channelled through national social protection systems could have a specific role in hel...
Climate shocks contribute to a significant share of the humanitarian burden, and are a key factor in increasing poverty and food insecurity. Social protection is increasingly recognised as an instrument to help build resilience to climate risks through long-term, large-scale national systems. However, most experiences to date have focused on social...
