Carsten Lemmen

• Dr. rer. nat
• Senior Researcher at Helmholtz-Zentrum Hereon

The SNS has recently become a European hub for installations of offshore wind farms (OWF), while extensive areas have been designated as marine protected areas (MPAs). Together with the already noticeable effects of climate warming, the region transforms from an area dominated by free ranging fisheries and shipping into an industrial landscape domi...

Computational models are complex scientific constructs that have become essential for us to better understand the world. Many models are valuable for peers within and beyond disciplinary boundaries. However, there are no widely agreed-upon standards for sharing models. This paper suggests 10 simple rules for you to both (i) ensure you share models...

Coastal ecosystems are increasingly experiencing anthropogenic pressures such as climate warming, CO2 increase, metal and organic pollution, overfishing, and resource extraction. Some resulting stressors are more direct like pollution and fisheries, and others more indirect like ocean acidification, yet they jointly affect marine biota, communities...

Human population dynamics and their drivers are not well understood, especially over the long term and on large scales. Here, we estimate demographic growth trajectories from 9 to 3 ka BP across the entire globe by employing summed probability distributions of radiocarbon dates. Our reconstruction reveals multicentennial growth cycles on all six in...

Models are critical tools for environmental science. They allow us to examine the limits of what we think we know and to project that knowledge into situations for which we have little or no data. They are by definition simplifications of reality. There are therefore inevitably times when it is necessary to consider adding a new process to a model...

In socio-environmental sciences, models are frequently used as tools to represent, understand, project and predict the behaviour of these complex systems. Along the modelling chain, Good Modelling Practices have been evolving that ensure -- amongst others -- that models are transparent and replicable. Whenever such models are represented in softwar...

The global industrialization of seascapes and climate change leads to an increased risk of severe impacts on marine ecosystem functioning. While broad scale spatio-temporal assessments of human pressures on marine ecosystems become more available, future trajectories of human activities at regional and local scales remain often speculative. Here we...

Viable North Sea (ViNoS) is an Agent-based Model of the German North Sea Small-scale Fisheries in a Social-Ecological Systems framework focussing on the adaptive behaviour of fishers facing regulatory, economic, and resource changes. Small-scale fisheries are an important part both of the cultural perception of the German North Sea coast and of its...

The spread of farming into Europe some 9000–5000 years ago involved not only the advent of new plants and animals, but also of people, tools, technologies, and knowledge. While they all can be assumed to follow Fickian diffusion gradients, the mechanisms of spread can be quite different: when people migrate, there is mass balance in the number of p...

We develop a new data assimilative (DA) approach by combining two parallel frameworks: a parallel DA framework (PDAF) and a flexible model coupling framework (ESMF). The new DA system is built on the ESMF at the top level that drives the PDAF and any combination of earth system modeling (ESM) components, to allow maximum flexibility and easy implem...

Marine litter is one of the most relevant pollution problems that our oceans are facing today. Marine litter in our oceans is a major threat to a sustainable planet. Here, we provide a comprehensive analysis of cutting-edge solutions developed globally to prevent, monitor and clean marine litter. Prevention in this research includes only innovative...

We here assess long-term trends in marine primary producers in the southern North Sea (SNS) with respect to ongoing regional Earth system changes. We applied a coupled high-resolution (1.5–4.5 km) 3d-physical-biogeochemical regional Earth System model that includes an advanced phytoplankton growth model and benthic biogeochemistry to hindcast ecosy...

Wildfire occurrence is influenced by climate, vegetation and human activities. A key challenge for understanding fire-climate-vegetation interactions is to quantify the effect vegetation has in mediating fire regime. Here, we explore the relative importance of Holocene land cover and dominant functional forest type, and climate dynamics on biomass...

Wildfire occurrence is influenced by climate, vegetation and human activities. A key challenge for understanding the risk of fires is quantifying the mediating effect of vegetation on fire regimes. Here, we explore the relative importance of Holocene land cover, land use, dominant functional forest type, and climate dynamics on biomass burning in t...

The increasing demand for renewable energy is projected to result in a 40-fold increase in offshore wind electricity in the European Union by~2030. Despite a great number of local impact studies for selected marine populations, the regional ecosystem impacts of offshore windfarm structures are not yet well investigated nor understood. Our study inv...

Blue mussels are among the most abundant bivalves in shallow water along the German coasts. As filter feeders, a major ecosystem service they provide is water filtration and the vertical transfer of suspended organic and attached inorganic material to the sea floor. Laboratory and field studies previously demonstrated that blue mussels can remove l...

The unprecedented use of Earth's resources by humans, in combination with increasing natural variability in natural processes over the past century, is affecting the evolution of the Earth system. To better understand natural processes and their potential future trajectories requires improved integration with and quantification of human processes....

Shelf and coastal sea processes extend from the atmosphere through the water column and into the seabed. These processes reflect intimate interactions between physical, chemical, and biological states on multiple scales. As a consequence, coastal system modelling requires a high and flexible degree of process and domain integration; this has so far...

The spread of farming into Europe some 9000–5000 years ago involved not only the advent of new plants and animals, but also of people, tools, technologies, and knowledge. While they all can be assumed to follow Fickian diffusion gradients, the mechanisms of spread can be quite different: when people migrate, there is mass balance in the number of p...

The activity of macrofauna on the sea floor is since long known to mediate deposition and erosion of suspended sediment, but so far most studies addressed this effect at a local scale. In the present paper, the contribution of the observed macrofauna distribution (exemplified by a bivalve, the bean-like Fabulina fabula, formerly known as Tellina fa...

The increasing demand for renewable energy is projected to result in a 40-fold increase in offshore wind electricity in the European Union by 2030. Despite a great number of local impact studies for selected marine populations, the regional ecosystem impacts of offshore wind farm structures are not yet well assessed nor understood. Our study invest...

The unprecedented use of Earth's resources by humans, in combination with the increasing natural variability in natural processes over the past century, is affecting evolution of the Earth system. To better understand natural processes and their potential future trajectories requires improved integration with and quantification of human processes....

Shelf and coastal sea processes extend from the atmosphere through the water column and into the sea bed. These processes are driven by physical, chemical, and biological interactions at local scales, and they are influenced by transport and cross strong spatial gradients. The linkages between domains and many different processes are not adequately...

Inferred European Holocene population size exhibits large fluctuations, particularly around the onset of farming. We attempt to find explanations for these fluctuations by employing the concept of cycling, especially that of the Adaptive Cycle. We base our analysis on chronologically and chorologically highly resolved ceramic and site data from the...

The most profound change in the relationship between humans and their environment was the introduction of agriculture and pastoralism. [....] For an understanding of the expansion process, it appears appropriate to apply a diffusive model. Broadly, these numerical modeling approaches can be catego- rized in correlative, continuous and discrete. Com...

Inferred European Holocene population size exhibits large fluctuations, particularly around the onset of farming. We attempt to find explanations for these fluctuations by employing the concept of cycling, especially that of the Adaptive Cycle. We base our analysis on chronologically and chorologically highly resolved ceramic and site data from the...

Inferred European Holocene population size exhibits large fluctuations, particularly around the onset of farming. We attempt to find explanations for these fluctuations by employing the concept of cycling, especially that of the Adaptive Cycle. We base our analysis on chronologically and chorologically highly resolved ceramic and site data from the...

As society struggles to find solutions to mitigate global warming, the demand for renewable energy technology has increased. Especially investment in offshore wind energy has proliferated in the European Union, with projections over the next 15 years estimating an over 40 fold increase in total offshore wind electricity. Though built with the goal...

Here, we present a community perspective on how to explore, exploit and evolve the diversity in aquatic ecosystem models. These models play an important role in understanding the functioning of aquatic ecosystems, filling in observation gaps and developing effective strategies for water quality management. In this spirit, numerous models have been...

For more than a decade, scientists have argued about the warmth of the current interglaciation. Was the warmth of the pre-industrial late Holocene natural in origin, the result of orbital changes that had not yet driven the system into a new glacial state? Or was it in considerable degree the result of humans intervening in the climate system throu...

To understand the two-way interaction between past societies and Holocene climate, we conduct a series of integrated model- and data-based studies. The climate-culture feedback is investigated using a coupled Earth System Civilization Model, including a new methodology to incorporate proxy information into an Earth System Model. Our study reconstru...

Was the spread of agropastoralism from the Eurasian founder regions dominated by demic or by cultural diffusion? This study employs a mathematical model of regional sociocultural development that includes different diffusion processes, local innovation and societal adaptation. This simulation hindcasts the emergence and expansion of agropastoral li...

Flow and sediment transport in coastal areas and shelves can be affected by the presence of benthic organisms. Depending on their feeding, sheltering and locomotion behavior, they may stabilize or destabilize the sediment by altering the erodibility, the critical bed shear stress, roughness, mud content, sediment aggregation and settling velocity....

The Modular System for Shelves and Coasts (MOSSCO) integrates physical, biological, chemical and geological models of shelves and coasts for the North Sea and Baltic Sea in an exchangeable way. The MOSSCO software forms a coupling framework for exchanging data and models, which distinguishes between physical domains (Earth System compartments such...

The Indus Valley Culture (IVC), often denoted by its major city Harappa, spanned almost two millennia from 3200 to 1300 BC. Its tradition reaches back to 7000 BC: a 4000 year long expansion of villages and towns, of trading activity, and of technological advancements culminates between 2600 and 1900 BC in the built-up of large brick-built cities, w...

Was the spread of agropastoralism from the Fertile Crescent throughout Europe influenced by extreme climate events, or was it independent of climate? We here generate idealized climate events using palaeoclimate records. In a mathematical model of regional sociocultural development, these events disturb the subsistence base of simulated forager and...

Sea surface temperature (SST) is the main driver of simulated climate in coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation models. A reliable reconstruction of past SST is necessary to simulate past climate realistically. We here present a novel method for reconstructing SST on the basis of terrestrial Holocene palaeothermometer data such that a climate...

The Indus Valley Civilization (IVC) was one of the first great civilizations in prehistory. This bronze age civilization flourished from the end of the fourth millennium BC. It disintegrated during the second millennium BC; despite much research effort, this decline is not well understood. Less research has been devoted to the emergence of the IVC,...

The Indus Valley Civilization (IVC) was one of the first great civilizations in prehistory. This bronze age civilization flourished from the end of the fourth millennium BC. It disintegrated during the second millennium BC; despite much research effort, this decline is not well understood. Less research has been devoted to the emergence of the IVC,...

In the many transitions from foraging to agropastoralism it is debated whether the primary drivers are innovations in technology or increases of population. The driver discussion traditionally separates Malthusian (technology driven) from Boserupian (population driven) theories. I present a numerical model of the transitions to agriculture and disc...

Humans have altered the Earth’s land surface since the Paleolithic mainly by clearing woody vegetation first to improve hunting and gathering opportunities, and later to provide agricultural cropland. In the Holocene, agriculture was established on nearly all continents and led to widespread modification of terrestrial ecosystems. To quantify the r...

The introduction and emergence of agriculture into Eastern North America (ENA) and Europe proceeded very differently in both subcontinents: it varied in timing, speed, and mechanism. Common to both regions, agricultural subsistence profited from the introduction of major staple crops which had been domesticated elsewhere; in both regions, the tempe...

Farming and herding were introduced to Europe from the Near East and Anatolia; there are, however, considerable arguments about the mechanisms of this transition. Were it people who moved and outplaced the indigenous hunter- gatherer groups or admixed with them? Or was it just material and information that moved-the Neolithic Package-consisting of...

In the many transitions from foraging to agropastoralism it is debated whether innovation in technology or increase of population is the primary driver. The driver discussion traditionally separates Malthusian (technology driven) from Boserupian (population driven) theories. I present a numerical model of the transition to agriculture and discuss t...

Farming and herding were introduced to Europe from the Near East and Anatolia; there are, however, considerable arguments about the mechanisms of this transition. Were it the people who moved and either outplaced, or admixed with, the indigenous hunter-gatherer groups? Or was it material and information that moved---the Neolithic Package---consisti...

Recurrent shifts in Holocene climate define the range of natural variability to which the signatures of human interference with the Earth system should be compared. Characterization of Holocene climate variability at the global scale becomes increasingly accessible due to a growing amount of paleoclimate records for the last 9000–11 000 yr. Here, w...

A reliable representation of sea surface temperatures (SST) is essential for realistic simulations of past climate, whereas for past societies the land climate was most important. We reconstruct SST such that a climate model reflects land climate and its variability as apparent in terrestrial proxies. For our study, we use the Earth system model of...

The major objectives of this paper are: (1) to review the pros and cons of the scenarios of past anthropogenic land cover change (ALCC) developed during the last ten years, (2) to discuss issues related to pollen-based reconstruction of the past land-cover and introduce a new method, REVEALS (Regional Estimates of VEgetation Abundance from Large Si...

The major objectives of this paper are: (1) to review the pros and cons of the scenarios of past anthropogenic land cover change (ALCC) developed during the last ten years, (2) to discuss issues related to pollen-based reconstruction of the past land-cover and introduce a new method, REVEALS (Regional Estimates of VEgetation Abundance from Large Si...

The major objectives of this paper are: (1) to review the pros and cons of the scenarios of past anthropogenic land cover change (ALCC) developed during the last ten years, (2) to discuss issues related to pollen-based reconstruction of the past land-cover and introduce a new method, REVEALS (Regional Estimates of VEgetation Abundance from Large Si...

The role of Pre- and Protohistoric anthropogenic land cover changes needs to be quantified i) to establish a baseline for comparison with current human impact on the environment and ii) to separate it from naturally occurring changes in our environment. Results are presented from the simple, adaptation-driven, spatially explicit Global Land Use and...

We present a simple, adaptation-driven, spatially explicit model of pre-Bronze age socio-technological change, called the Global Land Use and Technological Evolution Simulator (GLUES). The socio-technological realm is described by three characteristic traits: available technology, subsistence style ratio, and economic diversity. Human population an...

We integrate 130 globally distributed proxy time series to refine the understanding of climate variability during the Holocene. Cyclic anomalies and temporal trends in periodicity from the Lower to the Upper Holocene are extracted by combining Lomb-Scargle Fourier-transformed spectra with bootstrapping. Results were cross-checked by counting events...

The role of Pre- and Protohistoric anthropogenic land cover changes needs to be quantified i) to establish a baseline for comparison with current human impact on the environment and ii) to separate it from naturally occurring changes in our environment. Results are presented from the simple, adaptation-driven, spatially explicit Global Land Use and...

We investigate the extent to which quantities that are based on total column ozone are applicable as measures of ozone loss in the polar vortices. Such quantities have been used frequently in ozone assessments by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) and also to assess the performance of chemistry-climate models. The most commonly considered...

Current Earth System Models (ESM) lack the inclusion of the anthroposphere, despite the widespread and deliberate anthropogenic changes in land use that occurred during the Holocene, i.e.~by the introduction of herding and subsistence-to-intensive agriculture. Prehistoric land use change should be part of paleoclimate modeling initiatives in order...

We investigate the extent to which commonly considered quantities, based on total column ozone observations and simulations, are applicable as measures of ozone loss in the polar vortices. Such quantities have been used frequently in ozone assessments by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) and to assess the performance of chemistry-climate...

The tracer-tracer correlation technique (TRAC) has been widely employed to infer chemical ozone loss from observations. Yet, its applicability to chemistry-climate model (CCM) data is disputed. Here, we report the successful application of TRAC on the results of a CCM simulation. By comparing TRAC-calculated ozone loss to ozone loss derived with th...

In the recent WMO assessment of ozone depletion, the minimum ozone column is used to assess the evolution of the polar ozone layer simulated in several chemistry-climate models (CCMs). The ozone column may be strongly influenced by changes in transport and is therefore not well-suited to identify changes in chemistry. The quantification of chemical...

In the recent WMO assessment of ozone depletion, the minimum polar ozone column is used to assess the evolution of the polar ozone layer simulated in a variety of chemistry-climate models (CCMs). The total or stratospheric ozone column may, however, be strongly influenced by changes in transport and is therefore not well-suited to identify changes...

Daily ozone loss rates and total chemical ozone depletion during Arctic winter 1995/96 were evaluated based on ozone measurements by the Microwave Limb Sounder (MLS) instrument onboard the Upper Atmosphere Research Satellite (UARS). Employing the 3-dimensional transport scheme of the Chemical Lagrangian Model of the Stratosphere (CLaMS), trajectori...

During the Holocene strong gradients in the distribution of technologyincluding subsistence ways emerged on a global scale.These patterns were further amplified in historic times and are stillvisible through worldwide differences in national wealth.In order to evaluate major factors responsible for the shift fromforaging to food production we here...

Wuppertal, Univ., Diss., 2005. Computerdatei im Fernzugriff.