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Publications (300)
RESUMO A floresta amazônica passou por mudanças climáticas significativas nos últimos 50 anos. Para combater as causas das mudanças climáticas, promover o desenvolvimento sustentável e apoiar Povos Indígenas e comunidades locais na região, o Painel Científico para a Amazônia introduziu o conceito de uma sociobioeconomia de saudáveis florestas em pé...
RESUMO As inundações sem precedentes de abril a maio de 2024 no Rio Grande do Sul afetaram mais de 90% do estado, deslocando centenas de milhares de pessoas e causando 172 mortes. O fenômeno El Niño Oscilação Sul foi considerado importante para explicar a variabilidade nas chuvas observadas, consistente com pesquisas anteriores que mostram que even...
Deforestation in the Brazilian Legal Amazon remains a challenge due to its detrimental effects on ecosystems and the associated increase in greenhouse gas emissions. Such deforestation can be driven by foreign demand in terms of international exports, as well as domestic demand. However, most efforts to quantify the associations between consumer ma...
To manage Earth in the Anthropocene, new tools, new institutions, and new forms of international cooperation will be required. Earth Virtualization Engines is proposed as an international federation of centers of excellence to empower all people to respond to the immense and urgent challenges posed by climate change.
This study provides a thorough analysis of the landslides that occurred in the city of São Sebastião, on the northern coast of São Paulo state, Brazil, in February 18th–19th, 2023. The meteorological condition during this event was characterized by a cold front crossing over a warmer-than-normal subtropical South Atlantic, off the coast of São Paul...
The possibility that the Amazon forest system could soon reach a tipping point, inducing large-scale collapse, has raised global concern1–3. For 65 million years, Amazonian forests remained relatively resilient to climatic variability. Now, the region is increasingly exposed to unprecedented stress from warming temperatures, extreme droughts, defor...
Brazil nut (Bertholletia excelsa) is an important species in the Amazon, but the relationships between seed production and climate change are still poorly understood. Seed production data were obtained for the entire Brazilian Amazon, while data on precipitation, relative humidity, vapor pressure deficit, and temperature (mean and maximum) were col...
Land use and atmospheric composition drivers of climate change can interact to affect both local and remote precipitation and temperature regimes. In this article, we investigate the impacts of Amazon savannization and climate change in a global coupled ocean-atmosphere model simulation. We find that both Amazon land use change and atmospheric radi...
A iniciativa Diálogos entre Saberes por uma Amazônia que Queremos oferece uma oportunidade única de disseminar as mensagens principais do Relatório para um público mais amplo através de uma linguagem mais acessível. Nesta iniciativa, SPA & Bori e a Nexo Políticas Públicas uniram suas habilidades em ciência e comunicação para amplificar a ciência so...
This study presents novel insight into the mechanisms of Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) reduction and its recovery under a warmer climate scenario. An one-thousand-year-long numerical simulation of a global coupled ocean–ice–atmosphere climate model, subjected to a stationary atmospheric radiative forcing, depict a coherent pict...
To manage Earth in the Anthropocene, new tools, new institutions, and new forms of international cooperation will be required. Earth Virtualization Engines are proposed as international federation of centers of excellence to empower all people to respond to the immense and urgent challenges posed by climate change.
Climate projections simulated by the Brazilian Earth System Model (BESM2.5) under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 climate scenarios are analyzed based on future changes of surface air temperature (SAT) and precipitation with respect to the historical reference period 1971–2000. Since BESM2.5 is the only climate model developed in a South American country, this s...
The Amazon forest carbon sink is declining, mainly as a result of land-use and climate change1-4. Here we investigate how changes in law enforcement of environmental protection policies may have affected the Amazonian carbon balance between 2010 and 2018 compared with 2019 and 2020, based on atmospheric CO2 vertical profiles5,6, deforestation7 and...
A Nova Economia da Amazônia é um estudo desenvolvido pelo WRI Brasil em parceria com 76 especialistas de instituições científicas de diversas regiões do país. O trabalho mostra que manter a floresta de pé não é uma ameaça para o desenvolvimento, muito pelo contrário, é uma oportunidade de crescimento qualificado e inclusivo para a região. Ao reconh...
Modelos econômicos desenvolvidos
por diferentes instituições brasileiras
foram combinados para projetar
cenários para a economia da
Amazônia Legal (AML) em 2050.
A Nova Economia da Amazônia (NEA),
cenário orientado pelo Acordo de Paris,
desmatamento zero, expansão da
bioeconomia, restauração florestal e
adequação da agropecuária e matriz
e...
Biodiversity is proposed as a sustainable alternative for the economic development of high-biodiversity regions. Especially in the field of biodiversity genomics, the development of low-cost DNA sequencing opens an opportunity for new actors beyond academia to engage in genomic sequencing. However, it is challenging to adequately compensate non-aca...
On 15 February 2022, the city of Petrópolis in the highlands of the state of Rio de Janeiro, Brazil, received an unusually high volume of rain within 3 h (258 mm), generated by a strongly invigorated mesoscale convective system. It resulted in flash floods and subsequent landslides that caused the deadliest landslide disaster recorded in Petrópolis...
This study presents novel insight into the mechanisms of Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) reduction and its recovery under a warmer climate scenario. An one-thousand-year-long numerical simulation of a global coupled ocean-ice-atmosphere climate model, subjected to a stationary atmospheric radiative forcing, depict a coherent pict...
In this Review, we compare rates of anthropogenic and natural environmental changes in the Amazon and South America and in the larger Earth system. We focus on deforestation and carbon cycles because of their critical roles on the Amazon and Earth systems. We found that rates of anthropogenic processes that affect Amazonian ecosystems are up to hun...
From late May to early June 2022, 130 people died in catastrophic landslides and flash flood events triggered by exceptionally heavy rains in the states of Pernambuco, Alagoas, and Paraíba, along the coast of Northeast Brazil. Total rainfall in the city of Recife on May 25–30 was 551 mm, 140 mm higher than the average of the month of May. Rain was...
Six terrestrial biomes and a huge coastline make Brazil one of the most biodiverse countries in the world. However, the potential of Brazilian biodiversity as a valuable and sustainable source of wealth and development is still neglected. In order to reverse this scenario, the country needs to recognize and assume the power of its biodiversity, foc...
RESUMO Essa nota científica foi realizada a partir das notas e relatórios decorrentes do Seminário UrbanSus "50 anos de Estocolmo'72 e 30 anos da Rio'92: Desafios do Brasil do Presente para um Futuro Sustentável". Esse evento foi realizado no Instituto de Estudos Avançados da Universidade de São Paulo (IEA/USP) no formato híbrido (presencial e remo...
Losses in agricultural production, mainly caused by extreme temperature, rainfall and drought, have demanded the adaptation of the Brazilian agriculture to the ongoing climate change. This study aimed to evaluate, through an integrative review, the effects of agricultural practices established by two Brazilian public policies (ABC Plan and Planaveg...
Tropical forests are recognized for their role in providing diverse ecosystem services (ESs), with carbon uptake the best recognized. The capacity of tropical forests to provide ESs is strongly linked to their enormous biodiversity. However, causal relationships between biodiversity and ESs are poorly understood. This may be because biodiversity is...
The Amazon Forest is a major locus for carbon and water cycling in the climate system whose function has been degraded in recent decades by land use and climate change. Most studies of Amazonia’s carbon balance have been limited by sparse sampling. We measured 742 atmospheric vertical profiles of CO2 and CO over four regions of Amazonia from 2010 t...
Tropical forests are widely recognized for providing valuable ecosystem services (ES), but their existence is increasingly under pressure. The production of policy-relevant ES science is important to effectively convey their value. The main objective of this review is to insight into the associations between scientific knowledge, policy domains and...
Com o intuito de colaborar, no que diz respeito à Ciência e Tecnologia, na busca
de soluções para importantes problemas que afetam nossa sociedade, a Academia
Brasileira de Ciências (ABC) tem procurado adotar uma postura mais proativa, visando
a contribuir de maneira efetiva para o processo de formulação de políticas públicas.
Várias têm sido as fr...
Bioeconomy is an emerging trend that has disputed and competing definitions. However, it stands out on scientific, political, and economic agendas and is assuming increasing importance. Existing bioeconomies should be evaluated more by their production process than by the product itself. The concept of the bioeconomy has emerged in industrialized c...
▪ Bioeconomia é um termo emergente, que oferece
definições diferentes e ainda em disputa. Destaca-se
nas agendas científica, política e econômica e tem
assumido importância crescente.
▪ As diferentes bioeconomias existentes devem ser
avaliadas mais pelo seu processo produtivo do que
pelo produto em si.
▪ A bioeconomia em países industrializados eme...
In recent years, the area affected by forest degradation in the Brazilian Amazon has frequently been higher than deforestation. From August 2006 to July 2019, the degraded area totaled 194,058 km2, representing almost two times the 99,630 km2 deforested in the same period. The impacts of degradation include biodiversity loss and changes in the carb...
On February 15, 2022, the city of Petrópolis in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil, received an unusually high volume of rain within three hours (258 mm). It resulted in flash floods and subsequent landslides that caused 231 fatalities, the deadliest landslide disaster recorded in Petrópolis. In this paper, we analyzed the root cause and the key triggering fac...
We review the consequences of environmental changes caused by human activities on forest products and forest-dependent communities in the Amazon region—the vast Amazonas River basin and the Guiana Shield in South America. We used the 2018 and 2021 Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change reports and recent scientific studies to present evidence an...
The Amazon is hypothesized to reach an irreversible “tipping point” when deforestation slows the hydrological cycle sufficiently that tropical forest ecosystems cannot be sustained. However, inception of such a tipping point has not been supported by observations and the relevant links between deforestation and atmospheric moisture recycling are po...
Fake controversies have influenced policy making on health and environmental issues for decades, resulting in major implementation setbacks worldwide. As a case study, in this paper we examine fake controversies produced by a small group of active Brazilian researchers that have seriously impacted environmental conservation, particularly in issues...
The Science Panel for the Amazon (SPA) is an unprecedented initiative convened under the auspices of the United Nations Sustainable Development Solutions Network (SDSN). The SPA is composed of over 200 preeminent scientists and researchers from the eight Amazonian countries, French Guiana, and global partners. These experts came together to debate,...
The relationships between deforestation and non-timber forest products (NTFPs) supply chains are investigated in 532 municipalities throughout the Brazilian Amazon. The NTFP production of acai berry (Euterpe spp.), andiroba (Carapa spp.), Brazil nut (Bertholletia excelsa Bonpl.), and tonka bean (Dipteryx spp.) has reduced with increasing deforestat...
Land use change and deforestation can influence local temperature and climate. Here we use a coupled ocean-atmosphere model to assess the impact of savannization of the Amazon Basin on the wet-bulb globe temperature heat stress index under two climate change scenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5). We find that heat stress exposure due to deforestation was c...
Amazonia hosts the Earth’s largest tropical forests and has been shown to be an important carbon sink over recent decades1,2,3. This carbon sink seems to be in decline, however, as a result of factors such as deforestation and climate change1,2,3. Here we investigate Amazonia’s carbon budget and the main drivers responsible for its change into a ca...
Humid tropical forests play a dominant role in the functioning of Earth but are under increasing threat from changes in land use and climate. How forest vulnerability varies across space and time and what level of stress forests can tolerate before facing a tipping point are poorly understood. Here, we develop a tropical forest vulnerability index...
In Latin America there is ample evidence of increases in extreme climatic events and climate change. Since the TAR, unusual extreme weather events have occurred in most
countries, such as continuous drought/flood episodes, the Hurricane Catarina in the South Atlantic, and the record hurricane season of 2005 in the Caribbean Basin. In addition, duri...
We present a new framework that allows understanding those we deem irrational in the climate debate. Realizing if the issue is one of information, beliefs, values or means opens the door for more constructive dialogue. Decision-makers diverge in their responses to the urgent need for action on climate and biodiversity. Action gaps are fueled by the...
This monograph presents expert assessments of four different facets of Latin American and Caribbean (LAC) forests at the start of the 2020s. In Chapter 1, Dan Nepstad and coauthors distill lessons from case studies of the application of various approaches to forest conservation and restoration in four countries: Brazil, Costa Rica, Ecuador, and Per...
The complete or partial collapse of the forests of Amazonia is consistently named as one of the top ten possible tipping points of Planet Earth in a changing climate. However, apart from a few observational studies that showed increased mortality after the severe droughts of 2005 and 2010, the evidence for such collapse depends primarily on modelli...
Este artigo versa sobre o desenvolvimento sustentável da Amazônia por meio de transformações disruptivas.
Climate change effects can have significant impacts worldwide. Extreme events can modify water availability and agricultural production, making climate change planning an essential task. The National Institute for Space Research (INPE in Portuguese) in Brazil has made a large dataset of regional climate model outputs (simulations and projections) a...
Slowdowns of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation during Heinrich stadials (HS) caused reductions in cross-equatorial heat transport, southward shifts of the Intertropical Convergence Zone and intensification of precipitation over eastern tropical South America. While these changes are well described, the associated spatial sea surface t...
Forest degradation is widespread around the world, due to multiple factors such as unsustainable logging, agriculture, invasive species, fire, fuelwood gathering, and livestock grazing. In the Brazilian Amazon forest degradation from August 2006 to July 2016 reached 1,1 869 800 ha. The processes of forest degradation are still poorly understood, be...
The 10-Point Action Plan to catalyse a Circular Bioeconomy of Wellbeing is a call for collective and integrated action to global leaders, investors, companies, scientists, governments, non- governmental and intergovernmental organisations, funding agencies and society at large to put the world on a sustainable path.
Historically, during periods of extreme drought, food security in the drylands of the semiarid region of Northeast Brazil (NEB) is under severe risk due to agricultural collapse. The drought that started in 2012 continues to highlight the vulnerability of this region, and arid conditions have been detected during the last years mainly in the centra...
The WP discusses the importance of low carbon agriculture for adapting the Brazilian agricultural sector to climate change, emphasizing the production models supported by the ABC program for rural credit and Planaveg -The National Plan for Native Vegetation Recovery
In the last 50 years, the biosphere, upon which humanity depends, has been altered to an unparalleled degree. The current economic model relying on fossil resources and addicted to “growth at all costs” is putting at risk not only life on our planet, but also the world’s economy.
The need to react to the unprecedented COVID-19 crisis is a unique o...
The original version of the article unfortunately contained an error.
Leaders are failing to respond to the climate and environmental urgency the world is facing. A growing action gap, clearly visible during the recent CoP25, has been fueled by leaders' inability to respond efficiently to the mounting threats scientists—and increasingly society—are concerned about. Bridging this gap and tackling the growing polarizat...
‘Amazon 4.0’ Project
The raging fires that have devastated broad swathes of the Amazonian forest this past summer have reminded the public of the vulnerability of that region to climate hazards (droughts and subsequent risks of fire) and to the—at times reprehensible—intentions of some Brazilian economic actors (whose short-term interests and activ...
Important features of the Atlantic meridional mode (AMM) are not fully understood. We still do not know what determines its dominant decadal variability or the complex physical processes that sustain it. Using reanalysis datasets, we investigated the influence of the North Atlantic Ocean variability on the dominant decadal periodicity that characte...
O setor do agronegócio, as instituições financeiras, os investidores e a sociedade como
um todo devem atentar para a importância da intensificação sustentável da produção agrícola e da restauração florestal para o aumento da resiliência da agropecuária brasileira Este Working Paper discute as diferentes modalidades de agropecuária que auxiliam na a...
O Plano ABC e o Planaveg são instrumentos fundamentais para potencializar as modalidades de adaptação da agropecuária.O setor do agronegócio, as instituições
financeiras, os investidores e a sociedade como um todo devem atentar para a
importância da intensificação sustentável da produção agrícola e da restauração florestal para o aumento da resili...
A Revista Lancet Countdown: Acompanhando o Progresso em Saúde e Mudanças Climáticas é uma colaboração internacional multidisciplinar que objetiva monitorar as relações entre saúde pública e mudanças climáticas. Reúne 35 instituições acadêmicas e agências das Nações Unidas de todos os continentes, embasando-se na expertise de climatologistas, engenh...
Climate change is a global phenomenon that affects biophysical systems and human well-being. The Paris Agreement of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change entered into force in 2016 with the objective of strengthening the global response to climate change by keeping global temperature rise this century well below 2 °C above pre-i...
During the Younger Dryas (YD), paleoceanographic proxies indicate a weakening of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) resulting in a wide-spread surface cooling of the North Atlantic and a southward displacement of the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ). In the western tropical Atlantic, competingocean and atmospheric processes...