Carlos A. Nobre

This study presents novel insight into the mechanisms of Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) reduction and its recovery under a warmer climate scenario. An one-thousand-year-long numerical simulation of a global coupled ocean-ice-atmosphere climate model, subjected to a stationary atmospheric radiative forcing, depict a coherent pict...

In this Review, we compare rates of anthropogenic and natural environmental changes in the Amazon and South America and in the larger Earth system. We focus on deforestation and carbon cycles because of their critical roles on the Amazon and Earth systems. We found that rates of anthropogenic processes that affect Amazonian ecosystems are up to hun...

From late May to early June 2022, 130 people died in catastrophic landslides and flash flood events triggered by exceptionally heavy rains in the states of Pernambuco, Alagoas, and Paraíba, along the coast of Northeast Brazil. Total rainfall in the city of Recife on May 25–30 was 551 mm, 140 mm higher than the average of the month of May. Rain was...

Tropical forests are recognized for their role in providing diverse ecosystem services (ESs), with carbon uptake the best recognized. The capacity of tropical forests to provide ESs is strongly linked to their enormous biodiversity. However, causal relationships between biodiversity and ESs are poorly understood. This may be because biodiversity is...

The Amazon Forest is a major locus for carbon and water cycling in the climate system whose function has been degraded in recent decades by land use and climate change. Most studies of Amazonia’s carbon balance have been limited by sparse sampling. We measured 742 atmospheric vertical profiles of CO2 and CO over four regions of Amazonia from 2010 t...

Tropical forests are widely recognized for providing valuable ecosystem services (ES), but their existence is increasingly under pressure. The production of policy-relevant ES science is important to effectively convey their value. The main objective of this review is to insight into the associations between scientific knowledge, policy domains and...

Com o intuito de colaborar, no que diz respeito à Ciência e Tecnologia, na busca de soluções para importantes problemas que afetam nossa sociedade, a Academia Brasileira de Ciências (ABC) tem procurado adotar uma postura mais proativa, visando a contribuir de maneira efetiva para o processo de formulação de políticas públicas. Várias têm sido as fr...

Bioeconomy is an emerging trend that has disputed and competing definitions. However, it stands out on scientific, political, and economic agendas and is assuming increasing importance. Existing bioeconomies should be evaluated more by their production process than by the product itself. The concept of the bioeconomy has emerged in industrialized c...

▪ Bioeconomia é um termo emergente, que oferece definições diferentes e ainda em disputa. Destaca-se nas agendas científica, política e econômica e tem assumido importância crescente. ▪ As diferentes bioeconomias existentes devem ser avaliadas mais pelo seu processo produtivo do que pelo produto em si. ▪ A bioeconomia em países industrializados eme...

In recent years, the area affected by forest degradation in the Brazilian Amazon has frequently been higher than deforestation. From August 2006 to July 2019, the degraded area totaled 194,058 km2, representing almost two times the 99,630 km2 deforested in the same period. The impacts of degradation include biodiversity loss and changes in the carb...

On February 15, 2022, the city of Petrópolis in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil, received an unusually high volume of rain within three hours (258 mm). It resulted in flash floods and subsequent landslides that caused 231 fatalities, the deadliest landslide disaster recorded in Petrópolis. In this paper, we analyzed the root cause and the key triggering fac...

We review the consequences of environmental changes caused by human activities on forest products and forest-dependent communities in the Amazon region—the vast Amazonas River basin and the Guiana Shield in South America. We used the 2018 and 2021 Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change reports and recent scientific studies to present evidence an...

The Amazon is hypothesized to reach an irreversible “tipping point” when deforestation slows the hydrological cycle sufficiently that tropical forest ecosystems cannot be sustained. However, inception of such a tipping point has not been supported by observations and the relevant links between deforestation and atmospheric moisture recycling are po...

Fake controversies have influenced policy making on health and environmental issues for decades, resulting in major implementation setbacks worldwide. As a case study, in this paper we examine fake controversies produced by a small group of active Brazilian researchers that have seriously impacted environmental conservation, particularly in issues...

The Science Panel for the Amazon (SPA) is an unprecedented initiative convened under the auspices of the United Nations Sustainable Development Solutions Network (SDSN). The SPA is composed of over 200 preeminent scientists and researchers from the eight Amazonian countries, French Guiana, and global partners. These experts came together to debate,...

The relationships between deforestation and non-timber forest products (NTFPs) supply chains are investigated in 532 municipalities throughout the Brazilian Amazon. The NTFP production of acai berry (Euterpe spp.), andiroba (Carapa spp.), Brazil nut (Bertholletia excelsa Bonpl.), and tonka bean (Dipteryx spp.) has reduced with increasing deforestat...

Land use change and deforestation can influence local temperature and climate. Here we use a coupled ocean-atmosphere model to assess the impact of savannization of the Amazon Basin on the wet-bulb globe temperature heat stress index under two climate change scenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5). We find that heat stress exposure due to deforestation was c...

Amazonia hosts the Earth’s largest tropical forests and has been shown to be an important carbon sink over recent decades1,2,3. This carbon sink seems to be in decline, however, as a result of factors such as deforestation and climate change1,2,3. Here we investigate Amazonia’s carbon budget and the main drivers responsible for its change into a ca...

Humid tropical forests play a dominant role in the functioning of Earth but are under increasing threat from changes in land use and climate. How forest vulnerability varies across space and time and what level of stress forests can tolerate before facing a tipping point are poorly understood. Here, we develop a tropical forest vulnerability index...

In Latin America there is ample evidence of increases in extreme climatic events and climate change. Since the TAR, unusual extreme weather events have occurred in most countries, such as continuous drought/flood episodes, the Hurricane Catarina in the South Atlantic, and the record hurricane season of 2005 in the Caribbean Basin. In addition, duri...

We present a new framework that allows understanding those we deem irrational in the climate debate. Realizing if the issue is one of information, beliefs, values or means opens the door for more constructive dialogue. Decision-makers diverge in their responses to the urgent need for action on climate and biodiversity. Action gaps are fueled by the...

This monograph presents expert assessments of four different facets of Latin American and Caribbean (LAC) forests at the start of the 2020s. In Chapter 1, Dan Nepstad and coauthors distill lessons from case studies of the application of various approaches to forest conservation and restoration in four countries: Brazil, Costa Rica, Ecuador, and Per...

The complete or partial collapse of the forests of Amazonia is consistently named as one of the top ten possible tipping points of Planet Earth in a changing climate. However, apart from a few observational studies that showed increased mortality after the severe droughts of 2005 and 2010, the evidence for such collapse depends primarily on modelli...

Climate change effects can have significant impacts worldwide. Extreme events can modify water availability and agricultural production, making climate change planning an essential task. The National Institute for Space Research (INPE in Portuguese) in Brazil has made a large dataset of regional climate model outputs (simulations and projections) a...

Slowdowns of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation during Heinrich stadials (HS) caused reductions in cross-equatorial heat transport, southward shifts of the Intertropical Convergence Zone and intensification of precipitation over eastern tropical South America. While these changes are well described, the associated spatial sea surface t...

Forest degradation is widespread around the world, due to multiple factors such as unsustainable logging, agriculture, invasive species, fire, fuelwood gathering, and livestock grazing. In the Brazilian Amazon forest degradation from August 2006 to July 2016 reached 1,1 869 800 ha. The processes of forest degradation are still poorly understood, be...

The 10-Point Action Plan to catalyse a Circular Bioeconomy of Wellbeing is a call for collective and integrated action to global leaders, investors, companies, scientists, governments, non- governmental and intergovernmental organisations, funding agencies and society at large to put the world on a sustainable path.

Historically, during periods of extreme drought, food security in the drylands of the semiarid region of Northeast Brazil (NEB) is under severe risk due to agricultural collapse. The drought that started in 2012 continues to highlight the vulnerability of this region, and arid conditions have been detected during the last years mainly in the centra...

The WP discusses the importance of low carbon agriculture for adapting the Brazilian agricultural sector to climate change, emphasizing the production models supported by the ABC program for rural credit and Planaveg -The National Plan for Native Vegetation Recovery

In the last 50 years, the biosphere, upon which humanity depends, has been altered to an unparalleled degree. The current economic model relying on fossil resources and addicted to “growth at all costs” is putting at risk not only life on our planet, but also the world’s economy. The need to react to the unprecedented COVID-19 crisis is a unique o...

The original version of the article unfortunately contained an error.

Leaders are failing to respond to the climate and environmental urgency the world is facing. A growing action gap, clearly visible during the recent CoP25, has been fueled by leaders' inability to respond efficiently to the mounting threats scientists—and increasingly society—are concerned about. Bridging this gap and tackling the growing polarizat...

‘Amazon 4.0’ Project The raging fires that have devastated broad swathes of the Amazonian forest this past summer have reminded the public of the vulnerability of that region to climate hazards (droughts and subsequent risks of fire) and to the—at times reprehensible—intentions of some Brazilian economic actors (whose short-term interests and activ...

Important features of the Atlantic meridional mode (AMM) are not fully understood. We still do not know what determines its dominant decadal variability or the complex physical processes that sustain it. Using reanalysis datasets, we investigated the influence of the North Atlantic Ocean variability on the dominant decadal periodicity that characte...

O setor do agronegócio, as instituições financeiras, os investidores e a sociedade como um todo devem atentar para a importância da intensificação sustentável da produção agrícola e da restauração florestal para o aumento da resiliência da agropecuária brasileira Este Working Paper discute as diferentes modalidades de agropecuária que auxiliam na a...

O Plano ABC e o Planaveg são instrumentos fundamentais para potencializar as modalidades de adaptação da agropecuária.O setor do agronegócio, as instituições financeiras, os investidores e a sociedade como um todo devem atentar para a importância da intensificação sustentável da produção agrícola e da restauração florestal para o aumento da resili...

A Revista Lancet Countdown: Acompanhando o Progresso em Saúde e Mudanças Climáticas é uma colaboração internacional multidisciplinar que objetiva monitorar as relações entre saúde pública e mudanças climáticas. Reúne 35 instituições acadêmicas e agências das Nações Unidas de todos os continentes, embasando-se na expertise de climatologistas, engenh...

Climate change is a global phenomenon that affects biophysical systems and human well-being. The Paris Agreement of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change entered into force in 2016 with the objective of strengthening the global response to climate change by keeping global temperature rise this century well below 2 °C above pre-i...

During the Younger Dryas (YD), paleoceanographic proxies indicate a weakening of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) resulting in a wide-spread surface cooling of the North Atlantic and a southward displacement of the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ). In the western tropical Atlantic, competingocean and atmospheric processes...

My country’s government is squeezing research and pushing the rainforest to the brink. My country’s government is squeezing research and pushing the rainforest to the brink. Carlos Nobre

Scientific Framework to Save the Amazon By Scientists of the Amazon Countries and Global Partners September 30, 2019 We, the scientists who study and monitor the Amazon rainforest, appeal to the reason and conscience of humankind. The Amazon, the largest rainforest in the world, is at great risk of destruction, and with it the well-being of our ge...

https://science.sciencemag.org/content/365/6452/419/tab-e-letters

The performance of the coupled ocean–atmosphere component of the Brazilian Earth System Model version 2.5 (BESM-OA2.5) was evaluated in simulating the historical period 1850–2005. After a climate model validation procedure in which the main atmospheric and oceanic variabilities were evaluated against observed and reanalysis datasets, the evaluation...

Studies related to climate change scenarios and their impacts in key sectors of the Brazil need to be addressed. Measures to address the climate change impacts identified in the Brazilian energy, water agriculture and biodiversity sectors need to be implemented. Risk assessments for these sectors, as well as others such as water resources, urban ar...

This chapter considers four emission scenarios of CMIP5 simulations to analyze how greenhouse gases could evolve this century and to evaluate probabilities of additional warming to Brazil based on climate projections. The results are shown in values for average temperature and anomalies close to the surface. Thus, the probabilities for a range of d...

The Amazonian forest’s ability to provide environmental services is threatened by anthropogenic forcing at various scales, such as deforestation, fire, global and regional climate change, and extreme events. In addition to the impacts resulting from each one of these drivers, the synergistic effects potentially increase the risks. In the light of t...

This book maps extreme temperature increase under dangerous climate change scenarios in Brazil and their impacts on four key sectors: agriculture, health, biodiversity and energy. The book draws on a careful review of the literature and climate projections, including relative risk estimates. This synthesis summarizes the state-of-the-art knowledge...

O ponto de partida deste Relatório é a premissa que a direção da interação entre biodiversidade, clima e desenvolvimento é uma escolha humana. Esta interação se alterará ao longo do tempo, de maneira mais ou menos favorável à sociedade, dependendo do grau no qual o paradigma de desenvolvimento se transforme em direção a incorporar a conservação e u...

Large uncertainties still dominate the hypothesis of an abrupt large-scale shift of the Amazon forest caused by climate change [Amazonian forest dieback (AFD)] even though observational evidence shows the forest and regional climate changing. Here, we assess whether mitigation or adaptation action should be taken now, later, or not at all in light...

The abstract is published online only. If you did not include a short abstract for the online version when you submitted the manuscript, the first paragraph or the first 10 lines of the chapter will be displayed here. If possible, please provide us with an informative abstract. Studies related to climate change scenarios and their impacts in key se...

Southeastern Brazil is characterised by seasonal rainfall variability. This can have a great social, economic and environmental impact due to both excessive and deficient water availability. During 2014 and 2015, the region experienced one of the most severe droughts since 1960. The resulting water crisis has seriously affected water supply to the...

To effectively implement the Paris Agreement, capacity in carbon accounting must be strengthened in the developing world, and partnerships with local academic institutions can do the accounting for governments and fill the capacity gap. This paper highlights the Brazilian case, focusing on ways in which climate change science information and transp...

This report presents a general vision of the availability of water in Brazil within the context of climate variability and change. Despite Brazil having great water availability, its distribution among the regions is very uneven. The current situation, in terms of scarcity, is mainly due to inadequate planning of land and water use associated to ec...

ABSTRACT The Brazilian Scientific Mobility Program - Science without Borders (SwB) - saw the concession of over 101 thousand scholarships for Brazilian STEM students and education professionals to attend universities worldwide. As the first phase of this program ends, it is time to take a first look at its impacts, mainly on the undergraduate stude...

This study aims to describe the role of mobility in malaria transmission by discussing recent changes in population movements in the Brazilian Amazon and developing a flow map of disease transmission in this region.This study presents a descriptive analysis using an ecological approach on regional and local scales. The study location was the munici...

Location of the local administrative area of Porto Velho municipality, Rondônia State, Brazil. (TIF)

Representation of a weighted graph. (TIFF)