Carlos Llano

Universidad Autónoma de Madrid | UAM · Departamento de Análisis Económico (Teoría e Historia Económica)

Based on a micro-founded gravity equation and resorting to a new database of interregional trade flows within European Union countries, we study the asymmetric concentration of inflows in importing regions when exports come from regions with different geographical advantages in terms of their accessibility to the international border. As a case stu...

En el último informe trimestral de Cintereg dedicábamos el cuadro a realizar una primera incursión acerca del posible impacto económico de la guerra entre Rusia y Ucrania, y las sanciones adoptadas por la mayor parte de los países OTAN / OECD. En dicho análisis resumíamos los principales resultados obtenidos para las comunidades autónomas españolas...

El 24 de febrero las tropas rusas iniciaron la invasión de Ucrania, desplegando la mayor ofensiva militar en Europa desde la Segunda Guerra Mundial. Los países OTAN y la mayor parte de países OECD han reaccionado de forma decidida y coordinada, lanzando un potentísimo paquete de medidas económicas, dirigidas al estrangulamiento de la economía rusa,...

The objective of this paper is to link the literatures on economic complexity, income equality and environmental quality within the context of the Environmental Kuznets Trilemma. Within this framework, it is possible to measure the presence of an impossible trinity of irreconcilable objectives: economic growth, equal distribution of income and envi...

The evaluation of the Single European Market requires a better knowledge of the level of integration both between and within the EU countries. While some institutions are pushing for greater integration between EU countries, others may be introducing—purposely or collaterally—additional barriers to interaction. Several reports have reported the hig...

Empirical evidence has been lacking to explain trade agglomerations within countries. Starting with a novel micro-database of road freight shipments between Spanish municipalities for the period 2003–07, we break down city (municipal) trade flows into the extensive and intensive margins and assess trade frictions and trade concentration relying on...

En 2019, el prestigioso European Territorial Observatory Network (ESPON), lanzó el Proyecto IRIE, Interregional Relations in Europe (https://www.espon.eu/interregional-relations-europe-new-projectespon), una de las iniciativas más amplia desplegada hasta la fecha en el ámbito de los flujos interregionales en Europa. Con una duración de dos años, el...

Since 2007, Europe has been living through one of its deepest crises in recent history. What began as financial turmoil has quickly become a public-debt crunch. In Spain, public debt rose from less than 40% of GDP in 2008 to nearly 100% of GDP in 2013. This shock has resulted in a deterioration of public-debt ratings. In Spain, as in many other cou...

En el presente artículo se presenta la metodología y los resultados obtenidos en la trimestralización de los flujos de transporte de mercancías dentro de España. Partiendo de los datos anuales de movimientos de mercancías (1995-2007) según los principales modos de transporte disponibles en la base de datos C-intereg, se estiman los correspondientes...

Donald Trump´s so called trade wars and the COVID-19 pandemic are likely to have a substantial impact on international trade flows and would probably reshape globalization. As trade is restricted by tariffs, global value chains are shortened and international cooperation becomes more difficult, there is a chance that environmental sustainability wi...

With trade tensions running high, the Trump Administration is considering new tariffs on imported automobiles, and the main target would be the European Union, traditionally America’s closest ally. In this paper we combine disaggregated models to estimate the impact of these tariffs worldwide, and especially on Spain. First, a trade-policy simulati...

On March 8, US President Donald Trump approved new import tariffs on ‘iron and steel’ and ‘aluminum’ of 25% and 10%, respectively. The aim of this paper is to estimate the impact that this decision might have on the Spanish regions. Our empirical strategy combines three powerful models to address the trade effect both over the global economy, and m...

Greenhouse Gas (GHG) emissions is a topic of major concern worldwide. Following previous articles which provide a methodology for estimating GHG emissions associated with international trade by transport mode at the world level, in this paper, we estimate an equivalent database of GHG emissions for inter-regional trade flows within a country (Spain...

We analyse whether more populated cities have an export specialization different from the one of less populated cities. Using very detailed product-level export data for Brazilian urban areas over the period 2000–2013, we show that more populated cities export proportionately more skill-intensive and complex goods than less populated cities. This r...

Trade within and between countries can take place by alternative transport modes. Economic and logistical complexity is fostering multimodality as well as transport-mode competition. The international trade literature has given little attention to this issue. The aim of this paper is to analyze transport-mode competition in inter-provincial deliver...

We introduce a Bayesian hierarchical regression model that extends the traditional least-squares regression model used to estimate gravity or spatial interaction relations involving origin-destination flows. Spatial interaction models attempt to explain variation in flows from n origin regions to n destination regions resulting in a sample of N = n...

Recent literature has investigated the impact of social and business networks on the intensity of trade in goods between countries and within countries and the role played by these networks in the reduction of the border effect. This literature has found that such flows are positively correlated with migration stocks between pairs of countries/regi...

Trade and transport flows are usually considered synonyms. Consequently, it is standard to identify the origin of a flow with the point of production and the destination with the point of consumption. However, economic and logistical complexity may lead to a number of misrepresentations in the observation of specific dyadic records. Transport mode...

When modelling interregional flows it is standard to identify the origin and destination of a flow with the point of production and consumption. However, the presence of hub-spoke structures or multimodal flows may introduce bias, such as being an additional source for cross-sectional correlation between dyadic flows. The aim of this paper is to mo...

The existence of large border effects is one of the main puzzles of international macroeconomics. The seminal paper by McCallum found that trade between any two Canadian provinces was (on average) 22 times greater than trade between any Canadian province and any United State (US). Although various authors have estimated internal and external border...

The border-effect literature confirms that sub-national units tend to trade more with the rest of their country than with foreign markets. However, it is likely that ongoing processes of trade integration will generate a trade-off between internal and external integration for sub-national units within countries. In this paper we estimate the intern...

Recent literature on border effect has fostered research on informal barriers to trade and the role played by network dependencies. In relation to social networks, it has been shown that intensity of trade in goods is positively correlated with migration flows between pairs of countries/regions. In this article, we investigate whether such a relati...

We introduce a Bayesian hierarchical regression model that extends the traditional least-squares regression model used to estimate gravity or spatial interaction relations involving origin-destination flows. Spatial interaction models attempt to explain variation in flows from n origin regions to n destination regions resulting in a sample of N = n...

We explore origin-destination forecasting of commodity flows between 15 Spanish regions, using data covering the period from 1995 to 2004. The one-year-ahead forecasts are based on a recently introduced spatial autoregressive variant of the traditional gravity model. Gravity (or spatial interaction models) attempt to explain variation in N=n2 flows...

Previous studies have shown that, not only countries, but also regions have a preference to trade within their administrative borders. Using unique trade flows data, we also find a large home bias in Spanish intranational trade. However, we show that this home bias disappears once we take into account the higher density of social and business netwo...

The existence of a large border effect is considered as one of the main puzzles of international macroeconomics. We show that the border effect is, to a large extent, an artefact of geographical concentration. To do so, we combine international flows with intra‐national flows data characterised by a high geographical grid. At this fine grid, intra‐...

In this paper, we develop an econometric analysis of the intra- and interregional trade flows of the accommodation, restaurant industry, and travel agency sectors in Spain by means of several specifications of the gravity model and three alternative databases containing the monetary flows for 2001 and 2007. The results obtained show the existence o...

The Heckscher–Ohlin–Vanek (HOV) model in its strict form has been strongly rejected by the data. Relaxing some assumptions of the standard HOV model is key to find improvements in its performance. We apply the Davis and Weinstein (2001) methodology to analyse the validity of the HOV model using regions rather than countries. Surprisingly, our resul...

A gravity-model approach is used to estimate the magnitude of the internal border (home bias) and external border (frontier) effects in Spain using industry-level trade flows. We find that the average border effects are about 30 and 10, respectively. Next we explore the variation in the industry-specific border effects. First, the border effects ar...

Recent empirical papers testing the performance of the Heckscher-Ohlin-Vanek (HOV) model suggest the need to relax its restrictive assumptions in order to reconcile the theory with the data. This paper examines whether introducing factor productivity differences could help to improve the performance of the HOV model in a regional setting. Using a n...

Completing data sets that are collected in heterogeneous units is a quite frequent problem. Chow and Lin (1971) were the first to develop a unified framework for the three problems (interpolation, extrapolation and distribution) of predicting times series by related series (the 'indicators'). This paper develops a spatial Chow-Lin procedure for cro...

Recent literature on border effect has demonstrated that national trade (intra- as well as interregional trade) tends to be more intense than international trade. Unfortunately, owing to the dearth of information on interregional economic relations, this important aspect of the economy has remained relatively ignored. In this article, the authors h...

Recent years have seen a surge of interest among industrial organization economists in using data on international trade flows as windows into competitiveness. For countries that are at least mid-sized (e.g., Spain), interregional trade tends to be as large as or significantly larger than international trade. The case of Catalonia, a Spanish region...

The assimilation of immigrants and their impact on the labour market of the host country have become a growing subject of study in recent literature. This is a topic of particular interest in countries like Spain, where immigration has become one of the main challenges of government policy in recent years. The Madrid region has experienced one of t...

RESUMEN: Este trabajo analiza los flujos monetarios domésticos del sector Turismo en España mediante diferentes especificaciones del modelo gravitatorio, aplicados a tres estimaciones alternativas de los flujos monetarios bilaterales. Los modelos han permitido identificar las principales variables que actúan como factores de atracción de los fluj...

Missing data in dynamic panel models occur quite often since detailed recording of the dependent variable is often not possible at all observation points in time and space. In this paper we develop classical and Bayesian methods to complete missing data in panel models. The Chow-Lin (1971) method is a classical method for completing dependent disag...

En este artículo se presenta la metodología básica y un análisis inicial de los primeros resultados obtenidos en la estimación del comercio intra e interregional español a nivel trimestral para el periodo 1995.I-2009.II. Partiendo de este objetivo básico, y siguiendo un esquema paralelo al utilizado en la estimación de la base de datos C-intereg so...

En el presente art�culo se presenta la metodolog�a y los resultados obtenidos en la trimestralizaci�n de los flujos de mercanc�as dentro de Espa�a. Partiendo de los datos anuales de movimientos de mercanc�as (1995-2007) seg�n los principales modos de transporte disponibles en la base de datos C-intereg, se estiman los correspondientes vectores de m...

En esta nota se presenta un modelo input-output interregional de la economía española referido al año 1995, que ha sido estimado a partir de una amplia colección de tablas input-output uni-regionales y de matrices de comercio interregionales estimadas a partir de flujos de transporte de mercancías. A partir de este modelo, y mediante la aplicación...

In this note we introduce the 1995 Spanish Interregional Input-Output Model, which was estimated using a wide set of One-region input-output tables and interregional trade matrices, estimated for each sector using interregional transport flows. Based on this framework, and by means of the Hypothetical Regional Extraction Method, the interregional b...

This paper uses an interregional input output model to estimate the economic impact of the EU structural funds received by the Spanish regions during the period 1995-1999. We attempt to cast further light on the interregional effects that the funds have produced in terms of output, value added and employment, not just in the regions where they were...

Studies of competitiveness tend to focus on a local economy's global interactions, particularly its international trade. But for countries that are at least mid-sized (such as Spain), interregional trade tends to be as large as or significantly larger than international trade. The case of Catalonia illustrates the importance of interregional flows...

Recent literature on border effect fostered research on informal barriers to trade and the role of networks promoting it. In relation to social networks, it has been shown that the intensity of trade of goods is positively correlated with the migration flows between any pair of coun-tries/regions. In this article we investigate if such relation als...

España es uno de los países líderes en el mundo en el sector del turismo. Este liderazgo ha fomentado la realización de estudios sobre el turismo de no residentes. Sin embargo, el número de estudios centrados en el comercio interior del sector es más limitado. En este artículo proponemos una metodología para estimar el comercio intra e interregiona...

En el presente artículo, y tras una primera presentación del proceso de elaboración de las tablas interregionales estimadas por el Instituto L. R. Klein, se aborda un análisis cuantitativo que trata de valorar los posibles sesgos derivados de la utilización de tablas interregionales, frente a las tablas unirregionales clásicas, así como las desviac...

España es uno de los países líderes mundiales en el sector del turismo. Este liderazgo ha fomentado la realización de estudios sobre el turismo de no residentes. Sin embargo, el número de estudios centrados en el comercio interior del sector es más limitado. En este artículo se propone una metodología para estimar el comercio intra e interregional...

Completing data sets that are collected in heterogeneous units is a quite frequent problem. Chow and Lin (1971) were the first to develop a united framework for the three problems (interpolation, extrapolation and distribution) of predicting times series by related series (the 'indicators'). This paper develops a spatial Chow-Lin procedure for cros...

Although the regional input-output charts and other sources of statistical information provide general information about the trade that some autonomous communities have “with the rest of Spain”, the main estimations of the interregional trade have occurred within the context of academic research projects. In this paper we put forth the method used...

El artículo analiza la relación entre la estructura urbana y el mercado laboral, valorando hasta qué punto el modelo monocéntrico de desarrollo urbano es válido para el área metropolitana de Madrid. Junto al análisis de la localización de las empresas y los hogares en la Comunidad, se analizan los flujos intermunicipales de commuting entre 1996-200...

This article analyze the relation between urban structure and labor markets, with the purpose of valuing to what extent the monocentric model fits with the recent development of Madrid metropolitan area. Starting with the analysis of the territorial localization of companies and households within the Madrid region, we analyze the inter-municipal co...

Por commuting se entiende los desplazamientos de los habitantes de un área metropolitana desde su lugar de residencia hasta el de trabajo u ocio. La intensidad, dirección y estabilidad de los desplazamientos laborales aportan una valiosa información acerca de las fuerzas que impulsan el crecimiento de una ciudad, de la forma en la que las empresas...

En este articulo se presenta un modelo input-output interregional de la economía española, que ha sido construido por un equipo de investigadores del Instituto L.R. Klein a partir de dos piezas de información: o Una colección completa de 17 tablas input-output uni-regionales construidas (o actualizadas) para 1995 (una para cada Comunidad Autónoma)...

In this paper we introduce the first version of INTERTIO, a Multiregional- Multisectoral model for the Spanish Economy. The model combines the spatial and sectoral dimensions assuming the theoretical and empirical possibilities and limitations of the interregional input-output model. The research tries to use most of the regional information availa...

Deviating from the factor content studies on the Heckscher-Ohlin-Vanek (HOV) theorem, this paper applies the methodology proposed by Choi and Krishna (2004) to test the restrictions (derived by Helpman, 1984) on the factor content of bilateral trade flows. They require neither factor price equalisation nor any restrictions on preferences. We test t...

Tesis doctoral publicada en E/I-IEF/2004.01 y http://www.ief.es/. Universidad Autónoma de Madrid, Facultad de Ciencias Económicas y Empresariales, Instituto L.R. Klein. Fecha de lectura: 11-06-01 Bibliogr. : p. 495-508