Carlos Carroll

Carlos Carroll
Klamath Center for Conservation Research

About

49
Publications
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3,422
Citations

Publications

Publications (49)
Article
Full-text available
Parties to the Convention on Biological Diversity are finalizing a new Global Biodiversity Framework (GBF) to more effectively guide efforts by the world's nations to address global loss of biodiversity and ecosystem services. Each party is required to mainstream the new framework and its component targets into national conservation strategies. To...
Article
Full-text available
Expanding the global protected area network is critical for addressing biodiversity declines and the climate crisis. However, how climate change will affect ecosystem representation within the protected area network remains unclear. Here we use spatial climate analogs to examine potential climate-driven shifts in terrestrial ecoregions and biomes u...
Article
Full-text available
Recent advances in genomics have increased our understanding of geographic patterns of intraspecific variation and the importance of this variation in enhancing species’ potential to adapt to novel threats. However, as part of an effort to limit the scope of the Endangered Species Act (ESA), the US government has proposed the removal of the gray wo...
Article
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Global and national commitments to slow biodiversity loss by expanding protected area networks also provide opportunities to evaluate conservation priorities in the face of climate change. Using recently developed indicators of climatic macrorefugia, environmental diversity, and corridors, we conducted a systematic, climate‐informed prioritization...
Article
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Climate connectivity, the ability of a landscape to promote or hinder the movement of organisms in response to a changing climate, is contingent on multiple factors including the distance organisms need to move to track suitable climate over time (i.e. climate velocity) and the resistance they experience along such routes. An additional considerati...
Article
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Although population viability analysis (PVA) can be an important tool for strengthening endangered species recovery efforts, the extent to which such analyses remain embedded in the social process of recovery planning is often unrecognized. We analyzed two recovery plans for the Mexican wolf that were developed using similar data and methods but ar...
Article
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As climatic conditions shift in coming decades, persistence of many populations will depend on their ability to colonize habitat newly suitable for their climatic requirements. Opportunities for such range shifts may be limited unless areas that facilitate dispersal under climate change are identified and protected from land uses that impede moveme...
Article
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As evidenced by past climatic refugia, locations projected to harbor remnants of present-day climates may serve as critical refugia for current biodiversity in the face of modern climate change. We mapped potential climatic refugia in the future across North America, defined as locations with increasingly rare climatic conditions. We identified the...
Article
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Government agencies faced with politically controversial decisions often discount or ignore scientific information, whether from agency staff or nongovernmental scientists. Recent developments in scientific integrity (the ability to perform, use, communicate, and publish science free from censorship or political interference) in Canada, Australia,...
Preprint
Full-text available
Government agencies faced with politically controversial decisions often discount or ignore scientific information, whether from agency staff or non-governmental scientists. Recent developments in scientific integrity (the ability to perform, use, communicate and publish science free from censorship or political interference) in Canada, Australia a...
Preprint
Full-text available
Government agencies faced with politically controversial decisions often discount or ignore scientific information, whether from agency staff or non-governmental scientists. Recent developments in scientific integrity (the ability to perform, use, communicate and publish science free from censorship or political interference) in Canada, Australia a...
Article
Aim To inform conservation planning in the face of climate change, our objectives were to map spatial patterns of tree and songbird macrorefugia; to identify climatic limiting factors by region and taxonomic group; and to quantify multi‐scale topographic components of end‐of‐century biotic refugia. Location United States and Canada outside the far...
Article
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As most regions of the earth transition to altered climatic conditions, new methods are needed to identify refugia and other areas whose conservation would facilitate persistence of biodiversity under climate change. We compared several common approaches to conservation planning focused on climate resilience over a broad range of ecological setting...
Article
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Increasing connectivity is an important strategy for facilitating species range shifts and maintaining biodiversity in the face of climate change. To date, however, few studies have included future climate projections in efforts to prioritize areas for increasing connectivity. Here, we identify key areas likely to facilitate climate-induced species...
Article
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Recovery criteria under the Endangered Species Act are the objective, measurable targets for determining whether the recovery of listed species has been achieved. Existing criteria have been criticized as inconsistent and poorly supported. Recent proposals for improving those criteria have recommended framing them around population viability analys...
Article
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The concept of conservation-reliant species has become increasingly prominent, particularly with species listed or under consideration for listing under the US Endangered Species Act (ESA). We have concerns about the trend toward what we see as an overly broad definition of conservation reliance. In addition to being of limited practical utility, o...
Article
Source-sink dynamics are an emergent property of complex species–landscape interactions. A better understanding of how human activities affect source-sink dynamics has the potential to inform and improve the management of species of conservation concern. Here we use a study of the northern spotted owl (Strix occidentalis caurina) to introduce new m...
Article
Full-text available
Many species listed under the US Endangered Species Act (ESA) face continuing threats and will require intervention to address those threats for decades. These species, which have been termed conservation-reliant, pose a challenge to the ESA's mandate for recovery of self-sustaining populations. Most references to conservation-reliant species by fe...
Article
Restoring connectivity between fragmented populations is an important tool for alleviating genetic threats to endangered species. Yet recovery plans typically lack quantitative criteria for ensuring such population connectivity. We demonstrate how models that integrate habitat, genetic, and demographic data can be used to develop connectivity crite...
Conference Paper
Background/Question/Methods The use of simulation models in conservation biology, landscape ecology, and other disciplines is increasing. Models are essential tools for researchers who, for example, need to forecast future conditions, weigh competing recovery and mitigation strategies, or evaluate the consequences of stressor interactions on one...
Conference Paper
Background/Question/Methods Planning for the recovery of threatened species is increasingly informed by spatially-explicit population models. However, using simulation model results to guide land management decisions can be difficult due to the volume and complexity of model output. This is especially true when simulated movement data is used to...
Article
Centrality metrics evaluate paths between all possible pairwise combinations of sites on a landscape to rank the contribution of each site to facilitating ecological flows across the network of sites. Computational advances now allow application of centrality metrics to landscapes represented as continuous gradients of habitat quality. This avoids...
Article
Although well-studied vertebrates such as the Northern Spotted Owl (NSO) are often used as focal species in regional conservation plans, range shifts associated with climate change may compromise this role. I used the Maxent (maximum entropy) method to develop NSO distribution models from data on NSO locations, forest age, and an ensemble of climat...
Article
Biologists who develop and apply habitat models are often familiar with the statistical challenges posed by their data's spatial structure but are unsure of whether the use of complex spatial models will increase the utility of model results in planning. We compared the relative performance of nonspatial and hierarchical Bayesian spatial models for...
Article
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The effectiveness of a system of reserves may be compromised under climate change as species' habitat shifts to nonreserved areas, a problem that may be compounded when well-studied vertebrate species are used as conservation umbrellas for other taxa. The Northwest Forest Plan was among the first efforts to integrate conservation of wide-ranging fo...
Article
The U.S. Endangered Species Act (ESA) defines an endangered species as one "at risk of extinction throughout all or a significant portion of its range." The prevailing interpretation of this phrase, which focuses exclusively on the overall viability of listed species without regard to their geographic distribution, has led to development of listing...
Article
Regional conservation planning increasingly draws on habitat suitability models to support decisions regarding land allocation and management. Nevertheless, statistical techniques commonly used for developing such models may give misleading results because they fail to account for 3 factors common in data sets of species distribution: spatial autoc...
Article
Assessing the effects of climate change on threatened species requires moving beyond simple bioclimatic models to models that incorporate interactions among climatic trends, landscape change, environmental stochasticity, and species life history. Populations of marten (Martes americana) and lynx (Lynx canadensis) in southeastern Canada and the nort...
Article
Protection of area-limited species is an important component of plans to conserve biodiversity, but the habitat needs of such species can be different and important habitats may not align with existing reserves. We used empirically derived landscape suitability models for the spotted owl and the fisher to evaluate the overlap in habitat suitability...
Article
Summary 1. The Amur or Siberian tiger Panthera tigris altaica forms a relatively small and disjunct population of less than 600 individuals in the Russian Far East. Because tigers in this region require large territories to acquire sufficient prey, current strictly protected areas, comprising 3·4% (10 300 km 2 ) of the region, are unlikely to preve...
Article
We used a spatially explicit population model of wolves (Canis lupus) to propose a framework for defining rangewide recovery priorities and finer-scale strategies for regional reintroductions. The model predicts that Yellowstone and central Idaho, where wolves have recently been successfully reintroduced, hold the most secure core areas for wolves...
Article
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Aim Mammalian carnivores are considered particularly sensitive indicators of environmental change. Information on the distribution of carnivores from the early 1900s provides a unique opportunity to evaluate changes in their distributions over a 75-year period during which the influence of human uses of forest resources in California greatly increa...
Article
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To conserve biological diversity, protected-area networks must be based not only on current species distributions but also on the landscape's long-term capacity to support populations. We used spatially explicit population models requiring detailed habitat and demographic data to evaluate the ability of existing park systems in the Rocky Mountain r...
Article
Full-text available
Current reserve selection algorithms,have,difficulty evaluating,connectivity and,other factors necessary,to conserve,wide-ranging,species in developing,landscapes. Conversely, population viability analyses may incorporate detailed demographic data, but often lack sufficient spatial detail or are limited to too few,taxa to be relevant to regional co...
Article
Mammalian carnivores are increasingly the focus of reintroduction attempts in areas from which they have been extirpated by historic persecution. We used static and dynamic spatial models to evaluate whether a proposed wolf reintroduction to the southern Rocky Mountain region ( U.S.A ) would advance recovery by increasing species distribution beyon...
Article
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We conducted a systematic conservation assessment of the 10.8-million-ha Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem (GYE), integrating three basic approaches to conservation planning: protecting special elements, representing environmental variation, and securing habitat for focal species (grizzly bear [ Ursus arctos], wolf [Canis lupus], and wolverine [Gulo gu...
Article
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Viability analysis of well-selected focal species can complement ecosystem- level conservation planning by revealing thresholds in habitat area and landscape connec- tivity. Mammalian carnivores are good candidates for focal species because their distri- butional patterns often strongly reflect regional-scale population processes. We incorporated f...
Article
Full-text available
American martens (Martes americana) are associated strongly with mature conifer forests and once occurred throughout the mountains of the coastal Pacific states. We sought to document the distribution of martens in this region using historical records and to understand recent change in their distribution. We described the distribution of martens fr...
Article
Forest carnivores such as the fisher (Martes pennanti) have frequently been the target of conserva- tion concern because of their association in some regions with older forests and sensitivity to landscape-level habitat alteration. Although the fisher has been extirpated from most of its former range in the western United States, it is still found...