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Introduction
I am an Associate Professor of Economics at UDEM Business School (AACSB-AMBA), University of Monterrey (UDEM) in Mexico and member of the National System of Researchers (SNI-2). I am interested in macroeconomic policy, open economy macroeconomics and structural change. My recent research focuses on the role that export and import composition plays on economic prrformance.
For more info: https://sites.google.com/view/carlos-carrasco/
Current institution
Additional affiliations
October 2008 - April 2015
Education
October 2008 - April 2013
Publications
Publications (50)
La combinación de nuevas técnicas estadísticas, la mayor capacidad de procesamiento y la disponibilidad de datos han permitido el desarrollo de nuevas áreas de investigación económica a partir de las métricas de complejidad económica. La literatura reciente ha estudiado la relación entre la complejidad económica, entendida como la capacidad de los...
La combinación de nuevas técnicas estadísticas, la mayor capacidad de procesamiento y la disponibilidad de datos han permitido el desarrollo de nuevas áreas de investigación económica a partir de las métricas de complejidad económica. La literatura reciente ha estudiado la relación entre la complejidad económica, entendida como la capacidad de los...
In recent months, a global surge in inflation rates has been attributed to numerous factors, including the Russian invasion of Ukraine and the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic. The dynamic and unforeseeable nature of these events poses a significant challenge to predictive models. Consequently, a persistent need arises to develop forecasting techniq...
This article examines the dynamics of general government debt across 27 transition and post-transition countries spanning from 1996 to 2019. We devise and assess a theoretical model incorporating key determinants shaping the trajectory of public debt. Our evaluation employs panel data models. The findings underscore inflation, GDP growth, and nomin...
Industrial societies have significantly increased greenhouse gas emissions, resulting in higher average temperatures compared to pre-industrial levels. This has disrupted the socio-environmental balance and led to more frequent extreme climatic events. In response, several organizations have developed strategies that prioritize reducing the environ...
The global financial crisis revealed the insufficiency of the microprudential approach in containing systemic risks associated with the procyclicality of credit and the build-in of bubbles in financial markets. Since then, different macroprudential regulation tools have been implemented, strengthening regulatory bodies and improving the monitoring...
In recent years, there have been substantial efforts to improve the efficiency of production resources, including energy use, to reduce the human footprint from economic activities. Increasing production capacity and incorporating new technologies that improve energy efficiency in the production process are two primary challenges faced by developin...
The relevance of high-tech industries has increased in recent years, particularly because of their effects on productivity and economic growth. However, the analysis of their relationship with the external sector is scarce, being a potential determinant of external imbalances. We examine the role of the share of high-tech exports and imports in the...
We analyse the relationship between the military interventions within the so-called war on drugs and the economic activity at the subnational level in Mexico. During the early years of the war on drugs, federal forces were stationed in several Mexican states to ensure their security, known as Joint Interventions (Operativos Conjuntos). We focus on...
We analyse the performance improvement on a monetary policy model of introducing non-conventional market attention (NCMA) indices generated using big data. To address this aim, we extracted top keywords by text mining Banco de Mexico's minutes. Then, we used Google search information according to the top keywords and related queries to generate NCM...
We investigate the trade-economic growth nexus in developing countries considering the structure of the external sector. The economic literature has examined the effects on growth of export composition, export diversification and import composition, individually. We add to this discussion by jointly evaluating the role of these three factors in the...
En los últimos cuarenta años, las economías latinoamericanas han sido partícipes del viraje mundial hacia la profundización de las relaciones económicas internacionales; no obstante, dicho cambio no se ha reflejado en un crecimiento económico sostenido que permita mejorar significativamente el nivel de vida de la región. Este artículo pretende serv...
Estudios recientes cuestionan el poder explicativo de la Ley de Thirlwall sobre el caso de México y otros países en desarrollo, debido a la omisión de la especialización del comercio exterior y al uso de series temporales en la evaluación empírica. Atendiendo a dichas críticas, se estiman las elasticidades ingreso de la demanda de exportaciones e i...
A partir de la apertura comercial unilateral a mediados de los años ochenta y especialmente con la firma del Tratado de Libre Comercio de América del Norte (TLCAN), el sector externo de la economía mexicana se transformó. No obstante, dicho impulso del sector externo no se ha visto reflejado en un incremento de las tasas de crecimiento de la econom...
In response to the global expansion of COVID-19, governments around the world have implemented social distancing measures resulting in an unprecedented fall in economic activity. Consequently, the economic growth forecasts for 2020 have been adjusted downward in most countries, yet the magnitude of the decline has been different. In this article, w...
Some Eurozone countries have been characterised by a persistently increasing trend in the external imbalances, involving potential risks. This research is pioneering in analysing the effects of export composition on the trade balance in manufacturing goods using bilateral trade flows among the EA-12 countries and their EU-15 partners. Based on dyna...
En este artículo se utilizan modelos dinámicos con datos de panel para estudiar los determinantes del balance comercial bilateral de México con 39 socios comerciales en el periodo 1990-2016. La literatura señala al ingreso y al tipo de cambio real como las variables independientes clave. Asimismo, se incluye la composición de las exportaciones como...
Based on a demand-side approach, Thirlwall’s law claims that, in the long-run, economic growth is constrained by the balance of payments. Income elasticity of demand for exports should be greater than income elasticity of demand for imports in order to grow faster than the limit imposed by export demand. Accordingly, accurate estimations of income...
En el presente artículo se utilizan modelos dinámicos con datos de panel con el objetivo de estudiar los determinantes del balance comercial bilateral de México con 39 socios comerciales en el periodo 1990-2016. La literatura señala al ingreso y al tipo de cambio real como las variables independientes clave. Aquí se incluye la composición de las ex...
El desarrollo e implementación de las tecnologías asociadas a la Industria 4.0 -caracterizadas por la interconectividad, digitalización y automatización de los procesos productivos- ha despertado un creciente interés en relación con el impacto potencial que dichas tecnologías tendrán sobre el empleo. En este contexto, este documento presenta un aná...
Conventional theory and several empirical studies state that incomes and exchange rates are the key determinants of the trade balance. Here, we argue that export and import composition are also key explanatory variables because some goods are inelastic and/or with a high added value, directly and indirectly affecting income and price elasticities a...
El trabajo analiza la evolución del Banco de México en términos de la autonomía económica, instrumental y política a través de las seis leyes (1925, 1932, 1936, 1941, 1984 y 1993) que han regido su actuar.
We consider the potential presence of a structural component in the external balance of 12 Eurozone countries. To this aim, we define the Structural Component of the External Balance as the unobservable part of the external balance that is stable or evolves slowly and around which fluctuations occur with a potentially cyclical origin that are corre...
Después del inicio de la crisis financiera global, los desequilibrios externos europeos —principalmente en los países del sur de la eurozona— fueron explícita o implícitamente relacionados con el comportamiento de las finanzas públicas dentro de la hipótesis de los déficits gemelos. A nivel teórico, un empeoramiento del balance presupuestario del s...
After the beginning of the financial crisis, European external imbalances —mainly in the southern countries— were explicitly or implicitly linked to the behaviour of the public finances under the so-called twin deficits hypothesis. At a theoretical level, a worsening of a government’s budgetary balance exerts upward pressure on real interest rates,...
We analyse the average effects of increased violence generated by Joint Interventions (Operativos Conjuntos) within the so-called war on drugs at the municipal level in Mexico on the percentage of the working population earning twice the minimum wage or less. We implement a semiparametric difference-in-differences approach (Abadie 2005; Houngbedji...
In this paper, we develop four hypotheses for the origins of European imbalances in the context of the European economic integration process. To test the validity of our hypotheses for Germany and Spain, we implement an Autoregressive Distributed Lag bounds testing approach. According to our results, in the German case, economic and financial integ...
In this article, we present preliminary results, analyzing the causality between external balance and fiscal variables (primary public balance, interest paid on debt and overall public balance) within the so-called twin deficits hypothesis for a set of six Eurozone countries – three core countries (Austria, Finland and Germany) and three peripher...
The objective of this chapter is to analyse the different effects of the economic and financial crisis among the European Union Member States, focusing on the behaviour of a number of real and financial variables since the year 2003 to evaluate the impact of the crisis.
The paper analyses the monetary policy responses of the European Central Bank
(ECB) to the global financial crisis and the European sovereign debt crisis.
Our goals are on the one hand to explain chronologically the main measures in
conventional and unconventional policies adopted by the ECB and on the other
hand to analyse their effects on key int...
Analizamos los factores de riesgos externo para la economía mexicana en el contexto de la disminución de los precios del petróleo
Tras la crisis de la deuda en América Latina se pusieron en marcha una serie de reformas y ajustes estructurales con el fin de estabilizar las econo-mías nacionales y reducir las fluctuaciones del ciclo económico. Por su parte, desde mediados de los años ochenta, los países desarrollados alcanzaron una mayor estabilidad en términos de inflación y c...
Tras la crisis de la deuda en América Latina se pusieron en marcha una serie de reformas y ajustes estructurales con el fin de estabilizar las economías nacionales y reducir las fluctuaciones del ciclo económico. Por su parte, desde mediados de los años ochenta, los países desarrollados alcanzaron una mayor estabilidad en términos de inflación y cr...
We study the origin of European imbalances in the context of European integration. As a whole, the European Union and Eurozone have had nearly balanced external accounts. However, member countries have presented divergent positions. We analyse the short-term and medium-term factors underlying the presence of European external imbalances. Our result...
En este trabajo estudiamos el origen de los desequilibrios macroeconómicos de la economía
española en el contexto del proceso de integración europea. Con tal fin, analizamos
algunas de las hipótesis destacadas en la literatura económica como causantes de los
desequilibrios en la cuenta corriente, las divergencias en la competitividad de los estados...
The paper analyses whether the composition of public spending is converging in the European Union. The novelty of the paper lies in the use of different techniques from traditional beta and sigma convergences, of the economic and functional classifications of public spending, and of two measures of the size of public expenditure: as a share of GDP...
This Forum aims to systematically describe and analyse the evolution of national financial systems within the EU over the past three decades. It analyses the processes of financialisation that have dominated this period as well as the causes and consequences of the financial crisis from the perspectives of five individual member states — Germany, F...
The objective of the paper is to analyse whether the use of Inflation Targeting (IT) has had an impact on the process of convergence of inflation rates between Latin American countries and the United States. The analysis is made using non-habitual convergence tests. Some implications arise from our analysis. First, IT countries have lower inflation...
This work studies the origin of macroeconomic imbalances in the Spanish economy in the context of European integration, analyzing some of the major hypotheses found in economic literature as causes of imbalances in current accounts, disparities in competitiveness among member states and the fiscal position of the Spanish government. We emphasize th...
p>El artículo analiza el comportamiento macroeconómico en países latinoamericanos en el estudio de 14 variables macroeconómicas de 17 países durante el periodo 1970-2010. Se muestra una acentuada convergencia en los resultados macroeconómicos, en especial a lo largo de la última década. Esta convergencia hace que no puede asociarse la reducción en...
In this article we analyse inflation expectations in Mexico. After a review of the theoretical and empirical literature, we apply unit root, normality and cointegration tests to the data provided by Banco de México (Banxico) in the Survey on the Expectations of the Private Sector Economics Specialists. Our results reject the null hypothesis of norm...
In this paper we analyze the effect of the implementation of inflation targeting (IT) in Mexico. The analysis focuses on the inflation convergence process between Mexico and the United States, on inflation expectations in Mexico, and on economic growth rates in the Mexican economy. Our results show that neither the fall in Mexican inflation rates n...
In the paper we analyze the impact of Inflation Targeting (IT) in Mexico. The objective is to evaluate the impact of the implementation of inflation targeting and full-fledged inflation targeting (FFIT) on the level and the variability of the inflation and the output in the Mexican economy. We conclude that inflation rates had been reduced in Mexic...
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