Carlo Rondinini

Sapienza University of Rome | la sapienza · Department of Biology and Biotechnology "Charles Darwin" BBCD

The recent thematic Assessment Report on Invasive Alien Species and their Control of the Intergovernmental Science‐Policy Platform on Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services reaffirmed biological invasions as a major threat to biodiversity. Anticipating biological invasions is crucial for avoiding their ecological and socio‐economic impacts, particular...

The new key biodiversity areas (KBA) standard is an important method for identifying regions of the planet‐hosting unique biodiversity. KBAs are identified through the implementation of threshold‐based criteria that can be applied to any target species and region. Current methods to rapidly assess the existence of potential KBAs in different areas...

The Nature Futures Framework (NFF) is a novel tool for the development of positive scenarios centred on the relationship of nature and people, emphasising biodiversity as part of the solution to environmental challenges across various spatial and temporal scales, explicitly addressing a plurality of values for nature. In this work, we describe the...

Shared socioeconomic pathways are a key tool in predicting biodiversity scenarios and in the subsequent design of environmental policies. Here, we discuss how recent policy changes to global trade routes, agriculture, and energy production in response to the war in Ukraine are impacting socioeconomic scenarios used to set and assess biodiversity ta...

A key goal of the EU Biodiversity Strategy for 2030 is the design of a connected Trans European Nature Network (TEN-N), that helps to build a coherent and resilient network of protected areas across Europe. The TEN-N will need to consider and integrate societal perspectives on future biodiversity protection in Europe, accounting for multiple values...

The ecological impact of non‐native species arises from their establishment in local assemblages. However, the rates of non‐native spread in new regions and their determinants have not been comprehensively studied. Here, we combined global databases documenting the occurrence of non‐native species and residence of non‐native birds, mammals, and vas...

Poster presented at the 7th European Congress of Conservation Biology (ECCB 2024), held in Bologna (Italy) from 17th to 22nd June 2024. The paper is currently accepted in Conservation Letters.

Based on an extensive model intercomparison, we assessed trends in biodiversity and ecosystem services from historical reconstructions and future scenarios of land-use and climate change. During the 20th century, biodiversity declined globally by 2 to 11%, as estimated by a range of indicators. Provisioning ecosystem services increased several fold...

Many alien species are safe in their native ranges; however, some are threatened, posing a challenging conundrum for conservation and invasion science. We focused on alien threatened mammals, examining their distribution, pathways, threats, and conservation strategies. We also reassessed their IUCN Red List category to evaluate the effect of includ...

Global change is affecting insect populations worldwide as species declines have been reported from different areas of the planet. Novel approaches such as the identification of Key Biodiversity Areas (KBAs) could detect areas of high biodiversity value for insect populations. The KBA approach relies on standardised criteria to identify important s...

Biodiversity loss is a major global challenge and minimizing extinction rates is the goal of several multilateral environmental agreements. Policy decisions require comprehensive, spatially explicit information on species’ distributions and threats. We present an analysis of the conservation status of 14,669 European terrestrial, freshwater and mar...

The global decline of terrestrial species is largely due to the degradation, loss and fragmentation of their habitats. The conversion of natural ecosystems for cropland, rangeland, forest products and human infrastructure are the primary causes of habitat deterioration. Due to the paucity of data on the past distribution of species and the scarcity...

The global decline of terrestrial species is largely due to the degradation, loss and fragmentation of their habitats. The conversion of natural ecosystems for cropland, rangeland, forest products and human infrastructure are the primary causes of habitat deterioration. Due to the paucity of data on the past distribution of species and the scarcity...

Human pressure on the environment is increasing the frequency, diversity, and spatial extent of disease outbreaks. Despite international recognition, the interconnection between the health of the environment, animals, and humans has been historically overlooked. Past and current initiatives have often neglected prevention under the One Health prepa...

The new Key Biodiversity Areas (KBA) standard is an important method for identifying regions of the planet hosting unique biodiversity. KBAs are identified through the implementation of threshold-based criteria that can be applied to any target species and region. Efficient methods to rapidly assess the existence of potential KBAs in different area...

The Nature Futures Framework (NFF) is a heuristic tool for co-creating positive futures for nature and people. It seeks to open up a diversity of futures through mainly three value perspectives on nature – Nature for Nature, Nature for Society, and Nature as Culture. This paper describes how the NFF can be applied in modelling to support decision-m...

Habitat fragmentation and overexploitation of natural resources are the most prevalent and severe threats to biodiversity in tropical forests. Several studies have estimated the effect of these threats on species extinction risk, however the effect resulting from their interaction remains poorly understood. Here, we assess whether and how habitat a...

While the regional distribution of non-native species is increasingly well documented for some taxa, global analyses of non-native species in local assemblages are still missing. Here, we use a worldwide collection of assemblages from five taxa - ants, birds, mammals, spiders and vascular plants - to assess whether the incidence, frequency and prop...

The Common Agricultural Policy (CAP) is the European Union's main instrument for agricultural planning, with a new reform approved for 2023–2027. The CAP intends to align with the European Green Deal (EGD), a set of policy initiatives underpinning sustainable development and climate neutrality in the European Union (EU), but several flaws cast doub...

The spatial extent of marine and terrestrial protected areas (PAs) was amongst the most intensely debated issues prior to the decision about the post-2020 Global Biodiversity Framework (GBF) of the Convention on Biological Diversity. Positive impacts of PAs on habitats, species diversity and abundance are well documented. Yet, biodiversity loss con...

Human-wildlife conflict is one of the most pressing sustainable development challenges globally. This is particularly the case where ecologically and economically important wildlife impact the livelihoods of humans. Large carnivores are one such group and their co-occurrence with low-income rural communities often results in real or perceived lives...

Area of Habitat (AOH) is “the habitat available to a species, that is, habitat within its range”. It complements a geographic range map for a species by showing potential occupancy and reducing commission errors. AOH maps are produced by subtracting areas considered unsuitable for the species from their range map, using information on each species’...

The war in Ukraine comes at a time when the world is facing a critical moment in the need to reverse the biodiversity crisis. In response to the war, reactive changes to policy are potentially starting to shift the world from globalisation towards a form of regionalisation. This shift away from globalisation could hamper progress towards internatio...

Planning conservation actions requires detailed information on species' geographic distribution. Species distribution data are most needed in areas hosting unique or endangered biodiversity. Italy is one of the European countries with the highest levels of herpetological diversity and endemism and is home to several threatened species of amphibians...

Area of habitat (AOH) is a deductive model which maps the distribution of suitable habitats at suitable altitudes for a species inside its broad geographical range. The AOH maps have been validated using presence-only data for small subsets of species for different taxonomic groups, but no standard validation method exists when absence data are not...

Significance Protected areas are vital for conserving global biodiversity, but we lack information on the extent to which the current global protected area network is able to prevent local extinctions. Here we investigate this by assessing the potential size of individual populations of nearly 4,000 terrestrial mammals within protected areas. We fi...

Area of Habitat (AOH) is ‘the habitat available to a species, that is, habitat within its range’. It complements a geographic range map for a species by showing potential occupancy and reducing commission errors. AOH maps are produced by subtracting areas considered unsuitable for the species from their range map, using information on each species’...

Human impacts on the Earth’s biosphere are driving the global biodiversity crisis. Governments are preparing to agree on a set of actions intended to halt the loss of biodiversity and put it on a path to recovery by 2050. We provide evidence that the proposed actions can bend the curve for biodiversity, but only if these actions are implemented urg...

Habitat loss is the leading cause of the global decline in biodiversity, but the influence of human pressure within the matrix surrounding habitat fragments remains poorly understood. Here, we measure the relationship between fragmentation (the degree of fragmentation and the degree of patch isolation), matrix condition (measured as the extent of h...

EXPERT INPUT TO THE POST-2020 GLOBAL BIODIVERSITY FRAMEWORK: TRANSFORMATIVE ACTIONS ON ALL DRIVERS OF BIODIVERSITY LOSS ARE URGENTLY REQUIRED TO ACHIEVE THE GLOBAL GOALS BY 2050

The International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN) Red List of Threatened Species is central in biodiversity conservation, but insufficient resources hamper its long-term growth, updating, and consistency. Models or automated calculations can alleviate those challenges by providing standardised estimates required for assessments, or prioriti...

Area of habitat (AOH) is defined as the “habitat available to a species, that is, habitat within its range” and is calculated by subtracting areas of unsuitable land cover and elevation from the range. The International Union for the Conservation of Nature (IUCN) Habitats Classification Scheme provides information on species habitat associations, a...

1. Biological invasions have emerged as one of the main drivers of biodiversity change and decline, and numbers of species classed as alien in parts of their ranges are rapidly rising. The European Union established a dedicated regulation to limit the impacts of invasive alien species (IAS), which is focused on the species on a Union List of IAS of...

We developed the DAMA (Distribution of Alien Mammals) database, a comprehensive source reporting the global distribution of the 230 species of mammals that have established self‐sustaining and free‐ranging populations outside their native range due to direct or indirect human action. Every alien range is accompanied by information on its invasion s...

Area of Habitat (AOH) is a deductive model which maps the distribution of suitable habitat at suitable altitudes for a species inside its broad geographical range. AOH maps have been validated using presence-only data for small subsets of species for different taxonomic groups, but no standard validation method exists when absence data are not avai...

The Nature Futures Framework (NFF) is a heuristic tool for co-creating positive futures for nature and people. It seeks to open up a diversity of futures through mainly three value perspectives on nature – Nature for Nature, Nature for Society, Nature as Culture. In this paper, we describe how the NFF can be applied in modelling to support policy....

Area of Habitat (AOH) is a deductive model which maps the distribution of suitable habitat at suitable altitudes for a species inside its broad geographical range. AOH maps have been validated using presence-only data for small subsets of species for different taxonomic groups, but no standard validation method exists when absence data are not avai...

Area of Habitat (AOH) is defined as the habitat available to a species, that is, habitat within its range and is produced by subtracting areas of unsuitable land cover and elevation from the range. Habitat associations are documented using the IUCN Habitats Classification Scheme, and unvalidated expert opinion has been used so far to match habitat...

The Convention on Biological Diversity’s post-2020 Global Biodiversity Framework will probably include a goal to stabilize and restore the status of species. Its delivery would be facilitated by making the actions required to halt and reverse species loss spatially explicit. Here, we develop a species threat abatement and restoration (STAR) metric...

The breadth of a species' climatic niche is an important ecological trait that allows adaptation to climate change, but human activities often reduce realised niche breadth by impacting species distributions. Some life‐history traits, such as dispersal ability and reproductive speed, allow species to cope with both human impact and climate change....

The use of species’ traits in macroecological analyses has gained popularity in the last decade, becoming an important tool to understand global biodiversity patterns. Currently, trait data can be found across a wide variety of data sets included in websites, articles, and books, each one with its own taxonomic classification, set of traits, and da...

Biological invasions have emerged as one of the main drivers of biodiversity change and decline, and numbers of alien species are rapidly rising. The European Union established a dedicated regulation to limit the impacts of invasive alien species (IAS), which is focused on a Union List of IAS of particular concern. However, no previous study has sp...

The projected loss of millions of square kilometres of natural ecosystems to meet future demand for food, animal feed, fibre and bioenergy crops is likely to massively escalate threats to biodiversity. Reducing these threats requires a detailed knowledge of how and where they are likely to be most severe. We developed a geographically explicit mode...

Habitat loss is the leading cause of global biodiversity decline, but the influence of human pressure within the matrix surrounding habitat fragments remains poorly understood. Here we measure the relationship between fragmentation, matrix condition (measured as the extent of high human footprint levels), and the change in extinction risk of 4,327...

Recent assessment reports by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) and the Intergovernmental Science-Policy Platform on Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services IPBES) have highlighted the risks to humanity arising from the unsustainable use of natural resources. Thus far, land, freshwater, and ocean exploitation have been the chief caus...

Key Biodiversity Areas (KBAs) are sites that contribute significantly to the global persistence of biodiversity. The purpose of the Guidelines for using A Global Standard for the Identification of Key Biodiversity Areas is to ensure that KBA identification is based on consistent, scientifically rigorous yet practical methods. These KBA Guidelines p...

Global biodiversity policy is at a crossroads. Recent global assessments of living nature (1, 2) and climate (3) show worsening trends and a rapidly narrowing window for action. The Convention on Biological Diversity (CBD) has recently announced that none of the 20 Aichi targets for biodiversity it set in 2010 has been reached and only six have bee...

Scientists have repeatedly argued that transformative, multiscale global scenarios are needed as tools in the quest to halt the decline of biodiversity and achieve sustainability goals. As a first step towards achieving this, the researchers who participated in the scenarios and models expert group of the Intergovernmental Science‐Policy Platform o...

Aichi Target 12 of the Convention on Biological Diversity (CBD) contains the aim to ‘prevent extinctions of known threatened species’. To measure the degree to which this was achieved, we used expert elicitation to estimate the number of bird and mammal species whose extinctions were prevented by conservation action in 1993–2020 (the lifetime of th...

We provide a global, spatially explicit characterization of 47 terrestrial habitat types, as defined in the International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN) habitat classification scheme, which is widely used in ecological analyses, including for quantifying species' area of Habitat. We produced this novel habitat map for the year 2015 by crea...

Targets for human development are increasingly connected with   targets for nature, however, existing scenarios do not explicitly address this relationship. Here, we outline a strategy to generate scenarios centred on our relationship with nature to inform decision-making at multiple scales.

Understanding changes in species distributions is essential to disentangle the mechanisms that drive their responses to anthropogenic habitat modification. Here we analyse the past (1970s) and current (2017) distribution of 204 species of terrestrial non-volant mammals to identify drivers of recent contraction and expansion in their range. We find...

Human pressure on the environment is driving a global decline of biodiversity. Anticipating whether this trend can be reverted under future scenarios is key to supporting policy decisions. We used the InSiGHTS framework to model the impacts of land-use and climate change on future habitat availability for 2,827 terrestrial mammals at 15 arcmin reso...

Despite the scientific consensus on the extinction crisis and its anthropogenic origin, the quantification of historical trends and of future scenarios of biodiversity and ecosystem services has been limited, due to the lack of inter-model comparisons and harmonized scenarios. Here, we present a multi-model analysis to assess the impacts of land-us...

Environmental change is rapidly accelerating, and many species will need to adapt to survive¹. Ensuring that protected areas cover populations across a broad range of environmental conditions could safeguard the processes that lead to such adaptations1,2,3. However, international conservation policies have largely neglected these considerations whe...

Scientists have repeatedly argued that transformative, multiscale global scenarios are needed as tools in the quest to halt the decline of biodiversity and achieve sustainability goals. As a first step towards achieving this, the Expert Group on Scenarios and Models of the Intergovernmental Science-Policy Platform on Biodiversity and Ecosystem Serv...

The breadth of a species' climatic niche is an important ecological trait that allows adaptation to climate change, but human activities drive niche erosion. Life-history traits, such as dispersal ability and reproductive speed, instead allow species to cope with climate change. But how do these characteristics act in combination with human pressur...

Aichi Target 12 of the Convention on Biological Diversity (CBD) aims to 'prevent extinctions of known threatened species'. To measure its success, we used a Delphi expert elicitation method to estimate the number of bird and mammal species whose extinctions were prevented by conservation action in 1993 - 2020 (the lifetime of the CBD) and 2010 - 20...

Growing domestic and international ethanol demand is expected to result in increased sugarcane cultivation in Brazil. Sugarcane expansion currently results in land-use changes mainly in the Cerrado and Atlantic Forest biomes, two severely threatened biodiversity hotspots. This study quantifies potential biodiversity impacts of increased ethanol dem...

The workshop drew on the ‘nature futures’ participatory scenario-building exercise initiated by the IPBES expert group on scenarios and models, and other biodiversity modelling initiatives such as the ISIMIP project2 working on adding biodiversity to the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) scenarios framework, the 'bending the curve' initiative3 l...