Carl Driesener

University of South Australia | UniSA · School of Marketing

Ultra‐light buyers, those who, on average, buy a brand once a year or less, are important by number and their contribution to brand purchase occasions. The initial research, however, was limited in scope and did not measure the contribution of these buyers to sales volume or value. By examining over 850 brands in almost 60 categories, we identify t...

This research provides nuanced insights from a consumer-centric behavioural psychology perspective, by developing a theoretically grounded motivational process model of product evaluation, viewed through a country-of-origin (COO) lens, incorporating the focal constructs of product involvement, product knowledge, consumer ethnocentrism (CET) and ant...

This research provides nuanced insights from a consumer-centric behavioural psychology perspective, by developing a theoretically grounded motivational process model of product evaluation, viewed through a country-of-origin (COO) lens, incorporating the focal constructs of product involvement, product knowledge, consumer ethnocentrism (CET) and ant...

The advice to musicians and marketers is to focus on what they love: a truism for practitioners is to find 1000 ‘true fans’ and make $100 from each of them (Kelly, 2008. 1000 True fans. The Technium). If this advice is correct, we should see musicians with loyal user bases engaging more with their favourite artists and less with other music, sugges...

Marketers need evidence to help them select music to promote their products. Ethnicity, social class and/or personality type can distinguish individual music tastes, but age and nostalgia may be the largest determinant of all (North, American Journal of Psychology, 123 , 199–208, 2010). Research into listener preference for music from different era...

We extend the utility of Goodhardt's negative binomial distribution‐Dirichlet model to demonstrate how it can be used to support portfolio decisions relating to retail assortments. The approach is based on analysing polarisation of loyalty, , obtained via a transformation of the model's S parameter, to investigate loyalty to attributes. Prior resea...

Fifty years ago, Gerald Goodhardt's analysis of audience duplication across television programs led to the discovery of the Duplication of Viewing law. This law was then extended to describe and predict customer sharing within product categories: the Duplication of Purchase Law. Many replications and extensions documented the law‐like status of thi...

We present a review of Gerald Goodhardt's most famous contribution to marketing science—the NBD‐Dirichlet model. This provides a powerful illustration of the complex pathway and useful associated discoveries that over 25 years lead to the specification and application of a key marketing model. We identify the process that started with the negative...

Market share growth requires building mental and physical availability among all category buyers. However, if younger category buyers are more likely to purchase new-to-market products, then perhaps younger buyers are, relatively speaking, more important for growth. This research investigates the relationship between category buyer age, brand buyer...

For almost nine decades, advertisers have relied on the Sainsbury Normal Method (SNM) to estimate net-reach where single-source data are either too expensive or unavailable. To the best of the authors' knowledge, no SNM validation studies have included catalogues, smartphone applications, websites, social media, or cinema. While few studies have ap...

The Dirichlet model is an empirical generalization describing and predicting repeated choice amongst a set of competitive alternatives. With the advent of big data, there are many new potential applications for this model. Its developers emphasized one goodness-of-fit statistic, and subsequent researchers have used this along with others. There is,...

This paper investigates consumer's behavioural loyalty to online supermarkets over time. We use three measures of behavioural loyalty (share of category requirements, repertoire size, and polarisation index) from four major online supermarkets in the UK across five categories. We find that loyalty to online supermarkets is high in the categories we...

Purpose This paper aims to show that strength-based theories of memory provide only a partial description of how consumers retrieve brands from memory. Dual-process theories of memory such as the Source of Activation Confusion (SAC) model provide a more robust explanation of brand retrieval by accounting for the separate effects of brand familiarit...

Purpose – At present no frameworks exist for services marketers to incorporate social media (SM) within marketing communications planning. The majority of integrated marketing communications (IMC) frameworks were developed prior to the development of the widespread use of digital and SM for information seeking, sales and service. The purpose of th...

The aim of the paper is to investigate whether deviations from the double jeopardy pattern observed in brand buying (panel) data such as niche brands (brands with few users, but high levels of brand loyalty) and change-of-pace brands (brands with many users, but low levels of brand loyalty) correspond with deviations from the same pattern in brand...

This research examines long-term loyalty change in a wide variety of FMCG categories in the UK and USA, over time periods ranging from six to thirteen years. The study uses three loyalty measures: polarization index (φ), average brand share of requirements (SCR), and average repertoire size. Analysis over 26 categories shows mixed results for the p...

This research examines long-term loyalty change in a wide variety of FMCG categories in the UK and the USA, over time periods ranging from six to thirteen years. The study uses three loyalty measures: polarization index (φ), average brand share of requirements (SCR), and average repertoire size. Analysis over 26 categories shows mixed results for t...

Little is known about the market performance of brands that carry light claims (for example low fat, low sugar) in comparison to their regular counterparts. In order to fill this gap, we explore whether light brands perform similarly to regular brands in terms of (a) brand performance measures (BPMs), such as market share (MS) and penetration, (b)...

This article reports the relationship that specific elements of search engine advertisements (SEAs) have with click-through rates (CTRs) within Google AdWord Campaigns. In total, 1,880 separate advertisements with more than 57 million impressions and 185,000 click-throughs were analyzed. The main finding is that some elements have both positive and...

The negative binomial distribution (NBD) has been widely used in marketing for modeling purchase frequency counts, particularly in packaged goods contexts. A key managerially relevant use of this model is Conditional Trend Analysis (CTA)—a method of benchmarking future sales utilizing the NBD conditional expectation. CTA allows brand managers to id...

The Dirichlet is one of the most important theoretical achievements of marketing science. It provides insights into the distribution of consumer loyalties and is used widely in industry for benchmarking and interpreting brand performance. The Dirichlet's implications run counter to some well-entrenched marketing pedagogy and so, unsurprisingly, it...

We report on the temporal stability of the parameters of the NBD-Dirichlet model, a well-known stochastic theory of buying behaviour. This model is widely used and recommended as a stationary market benchmark against which the dynamic effects of marketing interventions can be assessed. Yet there is little work assessing how sensitive the model para...

This study compared rating, ranking and 'pick-any' measures of brand image associations. The pick-any technique is a free response measure, where respondents are given an attribute as a cue and asked which brands they associate with it. It is a free response in that respondents can link any, all or no brands with each attribute. It only captures th...

From analysis of over 39 categories Laurent, Kapferer and Roussel (1995) found that top of mind, spontaneous and aided brand awareness measures have the same underlying structure. The difference in scores appears due to the difficulty of the measure. We have successfully replicated this work and extended it to similarly structured advertising aware...

The Pareto Effect is known as a "rule of thumb" whereby the top 20% of a category's customers account for a disproportionate percentage of the category's turnover. The precise manner of the variation has not been clear. In considering how the Pareto Share varies with both the A and K parameters of the category's Negative Binomial Distribution (NBD)...

The Dirichlet model is a widely applied model of purchase incidence and brand choice. Underlying the model, and indeed the many brand performance measures that it produces, are the A, K and S parameters. These parameters are usually estimated from panel data and then used to provide theoretical estimates for the previously observed values. Understa...

There is a clear lack of systematic study comparing different techniques for measuring brand image. The few studies that have been conducted suggested that the free choice ‘pick any’ method, ranking and rating all provide equivalent brand image results (Joyce 1963; Barnard and Ehrenberg 1990). When using the pick any method, brands and/or attribute...

Abstract This paper replicates a study by Barnard and Ehrenberg (1990) which compared,the results of three different brand image measures. The first was a ranking measure,of ‘ we’d like you to rank some,manufacturers,so that the brand ranked 1is least associated with it’. The second was a scaling measure,of‘ we will give you a series of statements...

When reliable models do not fit observed data it tells us that some condition in the market violates the underlying assumptions of the model-and this can be very useful information indeed. The Dirichlet model of repeat-purchase has been validated over a very wide range of conditions, across countries and time. The model has been so successful that...

When reliable models do not fit observed data it tells us that some condition in the market violates the underlying assumptions of the model - and this can be very useful information indeed. The Dirichlet model of repeat-purchase has been validated over a very wide range of conditions, across countries and time. The model has been so successful tha...

This paper hypothesises two new Brand Performance Measures. These are of use to marketing managers and academics alike as they are not only useful in comparing brands within a category, but may, potentially, also be used to compare brands between categories. These BPMs are based on the category and individual brand purchasing rates and are the Purc...

This paper examines the impact of aggregating brands on the estimation of the Dirichlet model's switching (or loyalty) parameter (S). Typical brand aggregations for estimating the Dirichlet parameters are to use the top 5 or 10 brands with a final entity comprising of 'all other brands'. Theoretically S should not vary regardless of how the brands...

Small market share brands are known to suffer from two specific disadvantages compared with high share brands: they tend to have fewer buyers than high share brands, and they also tend to be bought less often (Goodhardt et al. 1984). Fader & Schmittlein (1993) also propose a third effect for small brands: segmentation causing even higher loyalty fo...

This paper examines deviations from Double Jeopardy (DJ), that is, brands that have greater or lesser loyalty than expected given their number of buyers. Double jeopardy is a phenomenon whereby small brands have fewer customers compared with big brands and these customers buy them less often (Ehrenberg, Goodhardt and Barwise 1990). The Dirichlet mo...

The Dirichlet model specifies the structure of product categories and the relationship between the market and brand performance measures. The paper discusses how these relationships can be made more accessible to brand managers and marketing researchers and more easily understood. The paper demonstrates how the Dirichlet model is used to forecast t...

We report website visiting behaviour for Commercial Airlines and Social Networking in Australia based upon a panel of some three million households over a period of 12 weeks. We provide evidence that aggregate choice behaviour for brands online is the same as that typically found offline. We also show the utility of the NBD-Dirichlet model for the...

One of the few quantitative empirical generalisations in marketing not associated with either Ehrenberg or Bass concerns the relationship between category level brand awareness scores. Laurent, Kapferer and Roussel (1995) (hereafter referred to as LKR) found that three classical measures of brand awareness (i.e. top of mind, unaided and aided aware...