Carl Boe

• University of California, Berkeley

The COVID-19 pandemic has revealed substantial coverage and quality gaps in existing international and national statistical monitoring systems. It is striking that obtaining timely, accurate, and comparable across countries data in order to adequately respond to unexpected epidemiological threats is very challenging. The most robust and reliable ap...

Fishery models of the Deriso–Schnute form are based on the dynamics of an age-structured population, together with a nonlinear stock–recruitment relationship. Cyclical dynamics are commonly observed in fisheries and have been attributed to feedback between stock and recruitment. In this paper, we do four things. First, we present analytical results...

In the early 1960s, the gap between Spain and Portugal in terms of life expectancy at birth was very large (6.5 years in favour of Spanish women and 7.2 years in favour of Spanish men). Excess mortality in Portugal was due mainly to high death rates among babies, children and adolescents. Today, the gap is much narrower, although Portuguese life ex...

Life expectancies in Portugal (81.3 years for females and 74.9 for males) and Spain (83.5 years for females and 76.9 for males) in 2005 rank among the lowest in Western Europe (Portuguese males) and the highest (Spanish females), respectively. This article studies the converging trends in mortality for these two countries of the Iberian Peninsula d...

Using data from the Human Mortality Database (HMD), the paper analyzes the increase in the life expectancy of the Spanish population during the three decades, 1970-2001, in order to ascertain which age and sex groups have made the most progress in terms of increasing life expectancy. Within the theoretical context of Health Transition, the authors...

Using data from the Human Mortality Database (HMD), the paper analyzes the increase in the life expectancy of the Spanish population during the three decades, 1970-2001, in order to ascertain which age and sex groups have made the most progress in terms of increasing life expectancy. Within the theoretical context of Health Transition, the authors...

The Tuljapurkar-Lee (henceforth \TL") model generates a large set of Monte Carlo simulations of future outcomes in the U.S. Social Security system. Four types of key macrodemographic and macroeconomic variables are modeled as stochastic components using standard time series methods. These include age-speci c mortality rates, age-speci c fertility r...

Human lifespan has increased enormously this century. But we remain uncertain about the forces that reduce mortality, and about the cost implications of ageing populations and their associated social burden. The poor understanding of the factors driving mortality decline, and the difficulty of forecasting mortality are due in part to the pronounced...

This paper addresses issues that arise in evaluating, making, and using stochastic forecasts of future fertility in the United States. We begin with Lee's ARMA model which leads to prediction intervals that are more realistic and informative than point-wise forecasts or traditional scenario methods. The roles of historical information and expert ju...

Prospects of longer life are viewed as a positive change for individuals and as a substantial social achievement but have led to concern over their implications for public spending on old-age support. This paper makes a critical assessment of knowledge about mortality change and the potential of existing work to contribute to the development of use...

The importance of linear models in the study of the dynamics of structured populations is great. Yet, probably only a few population phenomena can be assumed to be linear. Nonlinearity arises whenever interaction is incorporated into mathematical models, as for density dependence, predator-prey relationships, competition, external forcing, and spat...

Many epidemiological studies have identified the number of sex partners as a risk factor for the acquisition of HIV, but few studies have identified the number of sex acts as a risk factor. The seeming lack of importance of the number of sex acts as a risk factor has yet to be explained. In this report we conduct an exploratory data analysis to eva...