Bruno Tremblay

Bruno Tremblay
McGill University | McGill · Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences

About

129
Publications
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3,961
Citations
Citations since 2017
24 Research Items
1782 Citations
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20172018201920202021202220230100200300

Publications

Publications (129)
Preprint
Most viscous-plastic sea ice models use the elliptical yield curve. This yield curve has a fundamental flaw: it excludes acute angles between deformation features at high resolution. Conceptually, the teardrop and parabolic lens yield curves offer an attractive alternative. These yield curves feature a non-symmetrical shape, a Coulombic behavior fo...
Preprint
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The Viscous-Plastic (VP) rheology with an elliptical yield curve and normal flow rule is implemented in a Lagrangian modelling framework using the Smoothed Particle Hydrodynamics (SPH) meshfree method. Results show, from perturbation analysis of SPH sea-ice dynamic equations, that the classical SPH particle density formulation expressed as a functi...
Article
Full-text available
As the sea‐ice modeling community is shifting to advanced numerical frameworks, developing new sea‐ice rheologies, and increasing model spatial resolution, ubiquitous deformation features in the Arctic sea ice are now being resolved by sea‐ice models. Initiated at the Forum for Arctic Modeling and Observational Synthesis, the Sea Ice Rheology Exper...
Article
Full-text available
Simulating sea ice drift and deformation in the Arctic Ocean is still a challenge because of the multiscale interaction of sea ice floes that compose the Arctic Sea ice cover. The Sea Ice Rheology Experiment (SIREx) is a model intercomparison project of the Forum of Arctic Modeling and Observational Synthesis (FAMOS). In SIREx, skill metrics are de...
Article
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We compare the vertical hydrography of the Community Earth System Model Large Ensemble (CESM1‐LE) with observations from two specific periods: the Arctic Ice Dynamics Joint Experiment (AIDJEX; 1975–1976) and Ice‐Tethered Profilers (ITP; 2004–2018). A comparison between simulated and observed salinity and potential temperature profiles highlights tw...
Article
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In theory, the same sea-ice models could be used for both research and operations, but in practice, differences in scientific and software requirements and computational and human resources complicate the matter. Although sea-ice modeling tools developed for climate studies and other research applications produce output of interest to operational f...
Article
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The Maxwell elasto-brittle (MEB) rheology is implemented in the Eulerian finite-difference (FD) modeling framework commonly used in classical viscous-plastic (VP) models. The role of the damage parameterization, the cornerstone of the MEB rheology, in the formation and collapse of ice arches and ice bridges in a narrow channel is investigated. Ice...
Article
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We examine CMIP6 simulations of Arctic sea‐ice area and volume. We find that CMIP6 models produce a wide spread of mean Arctic sea‐ice area, capturing the observational estimate within the multimodel ensemble spread. The CMIP6 multimodel ensemble mean provides a more realistic estimate of the sensitivity of September Arctic sea‐ice area to a given...
Preprint
Full-text available
Abstract. Sea ice pressure poses great risk for navigation; it can lead to ship besetting and damages. Contemporary large-scale sea ice forecasting systems can predict the evolution of sea ice pressure. There is, however, a mismatch between the spatial resolution of these systems (a few km) and the typical dimensions of ships (a few tens of m) navi...
Preprint
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The shape and break-up of landfast ice arches in narrow channels depend on the material properties of the sea-ice. The effect of the material parameters on ice arches in a sea ice model with the Maxwell Elasto-Brittle (MEB) rheology is investigated. The MEB rheology, which includes a damage parameterization, is implemented using the numerical frame...
Article
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Pacific water contributes significantly to the Arctic Ocean freshwater budget. Recent increases in Arctic freshwater flux, also affected by the Pacific-derived Arctic water, impact the Atlantic overturning circulation with implications for global climate. The interannual variability of the Pacific water outflow remains poorly understood, partly due...
Article
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The Canadian Sea Ice and Snow Evolution (CanSISE) Network is a climate research network focused on developing and applying state-of-the-art observational data to advance dynamical prediction, projections, and understanding of seasonal snow cover and sea ice in Canada and the circumpolar Arctic. This study presents an assessment from the CanSISE Net...
Article
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Future climate warming of the Arctic could potentially enhance the load of terrigenous dissolved organic carbon (tDOC) of Arctic rivers due to increased carbon mobilization within watersheds. A greater flux of tDOC might impact the biogeochemical processes of the coastal Arctic Ocean (AO) and ultimately its capacity to absorb atmospheric CO2. In th...
Article
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Future climate warming of the Arctic could potentially enhance the load of riverine dissolved organic carbon (RDOC) of Arctic rivers due to increased carbon mobilization within watersheds. A greater flux of RDOC might thus impact the biogeochemical processes of the coastal Arctic Ocean (AO). In this study, we show that estimates of RDOC concentrati...
Article
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The changing Arctic sea ice cover is likely to impact the trans-border exchange of sea ice between the exclusive economic zones (EEZs) of the Arctic nations, affecting the risk of ice-rafted contamination. We apply the Lagrangian Ice Tracking System (LITS) to identify sea ice formation events and track sea ice to its melt locations. Most ice (52%)...
Article
The plastic wave speed is derived from the linearized 1-D version of the widely used viscous-plastic (VP) and elastic-viscous-plastic (EVP) sea-ice models. Courant–Friedrichs–Lewy (CFL) conditions are derived using the propagation speed of the wave. 1-D numerical experiments of the VP, EVP and EVP⁎ models successfully recreate a reference solution...
Article
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The relative skill of 21 regional and global biogeochemical models was assessed in terms of how well the models reproduced observed net primary productivity (NPP) and environmental variables such as nitrate concentration (NO3), mixed layer depth (MLD), euphotic layer depth (Zeu), and sea ice concentration, by comparing results against a newly updat...
Article
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The patterns of sea ice retreat in the Arctic Ocean are investigated using two global climate models (GCMs) that have profound differences in their large-scale mean winter atmospheric circulation and sea ice drift patterns. The Community Earth System Model Large Ensemble (CESM-LE) presents a mean sea level pressure pattern that is in general agreem...
Article
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A better understanding of the role of sea ice for the changing climate of our planet is the central aim of the diagnostic Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 6 (CMIP6)-endorsed Sea-Ice Model Intercomparison Project (SIMIP). To reach this aim, SIMIP requests sea-ice-related variables from climate-model simulations that allow for a better understan...
Technical Report
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The Columbia Climate Center, in partnership with World Wildlife Fund, Woods Hole Research Center, and Arctic 21, held a workshop titled A 5 C Arctic in a 2 C World on July 20 and 21, 2016. The workshop was co-sponsored by the International Arctic Research Center (University of Alaska Fairbanks), the Arctic Institute of North America (Canada), the M...
Article
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Recent trends and climate models suggest that the Arctic summer sea ice cover is likely to be lost before climate interventions can stabilize it. There are environmental, socioeconomic and sociocultural arguments for, but also against restoring and sustaining current conditions. Even if global warming can be reversed, some people will experience ic...
Article
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There has been an increased interest in seasonal forecasting of the Arctic sea ice extent in recent years, in particular the minimum sea ice extent. Here, a dynamical mechanism, based on winter preconditioning, is found to explain a significant fraction of the variance in the anomaly of the September sea ice extent from the long-term linear trend....
Article
Full-text available
A better understanding of the role of sea ice for the changing climate of our planet is the central aim of the diagnostic CMIP6 Sea-Ice Model Intercomparison Project (SIMIP). To reach this aim, SIMIP requests sea-ice related variables from climate-model simulations that allow for a better understanding, and ultimately improvement, of biases and err...
Article
Full-text available
The role of wind forcing on the vertical displacement of the -1°C isotherm and 33.8 isohaline depths was examined based on snapshots of historical (1950-2013) temperature and salinity profiles along the Mackenzie continental slope (Beaufort Sea). It is found that upwelling is correlated with along-slope northeast (T59°) winds during both ice-free a...
Article
An important aspect of understanding the impacts of climate change on society is determining how the distribution of weather regimes will change. Arctic amplification results in greater warming over the Arctic compared to the midlatitudes, and in this study we are further interested in how patterns of Arctic air masses will be a�ffected. We employ...
Article
We present a 1.5-D thermal stress model that takes into account the effect of land confinement, which causes anisotropy in thermal stresses. To this end, we fix the total strain in the direction perpendicular to the coastline to its value at landlocked ice onset. This prevents thermal expansion in the direction perpendicular to the coastline and th...
Article
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Ice-rafted sediments of Eurasian and North American origin are found consistently in the upper part (13 Ma BP to present) of the Arctic Coring Expedition (ACEX) ocean core from the Lomonosov Ridge, near the North Pole (≈88° N). Based on modern sea-ice drift trajectories and speeds, this has been taken as evidence of the presence of a perennial sea-...
Article
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The planktonic and biogeochemical dynamics of the Arctic shelves exhibit a strong variability in response to Arctic warming. In this study, in order to elucidate on the processes regulating the production of phytoplankton (PP) and bacterioplankton (BP) and their interactions, we employ a biogeochemical model coupled to a pan-Arctic ocean-sea ice mo...
Article
Results from an Ice Stress Buoy deployed near the center of a multiyear floe in the Viscount Melville Sound of the Canadian Arctic Archipelago between 10 October 2010 and 17 August 2011 are presented. The position record indicates the landlocked season was approximately 5 months, from 18 January to 22 June, when the sea ice was fast to Melville Isl...
Article
Current large-scale sea ice models represent very crudely or are unable to simulate the formation, maintenance and decay of coastal landfast ice. We present a simple landfast ice parameterization representing the effect of grounded ice keels. This parameterization is based on bathymetry data and the mean ice thickness in a grid cell. It is easy to...
Article
Full-text available
The planktonic and biogeochemical dynamics of the Arctic shelves exhibit a strong variability in response to Arctic warming. In this study, in order to elucidate on the processes regulating the production of phytoplankton (PP) and bacterioplankton (BP) and their interactions, we employ a biogeochemical model coupled to a pan-Arctic ocean-sea ice mo...
Article
Full-text available
Sea ice across the Arctic is declining and altering physical characteristics of marine ecosystems. Polar bears (Ursus maritimus) have been identified as vulnerable to changes in sea ice conditions. We use sea ice projections for the Canadian Arctic Archipelago from 2006 - 2100 to gain insight into the conservation challenges for polar bears with re...
Article
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An intercomparison of the distribution and extreme values of daily precipitation between the National Center for Atmospheric Research Community Climate System Model, version 4 (CCSM4) and several observational/reanalysis data sources are conducted over the contiguous United States and southern Canada. The use of several data sources, from gridded s...
Article
This study focuses on errors in extreme precipitation in gridded station products incurred during the upscaling of station measurements to a grid, referred to as representativeness errors. Gridded precipitation station analyses are valuable observational data sources with a wide variety of applications, including model validation. The representativ...
Article
Analytic solutions of a mechanical sea ice model are computed in idealized configurations. They are then used to study the properties of this model. It classically assumes that the ice behaves at large scale as an isotropic viscoplastic medium. The plastic regime is characterized by a Mohr-Coulomb yield curve. The flow rule corresponds to the one u...
Article
Full-text available
In viscous-plastic (VP) sea-ice models, small deformations are approximated by irreversible viscous deformations, introducing a non-physical energy sink. As the spatial resolution and the degree of numerical convergence of the models increase, linear kinematic features (LKFs) are better resolved and more states of stress lie in the viscous regime....
Article
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We present a selection of methodologies for using the palaeo-climate model component of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (Phase 5) (CMIP5) to attempt to constrain future climate projections using the same models. The constraints arise from measures of skill in hindcasting palaeo-climate changes from the present over three periods: the Last...
Article
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We present a description of the theoretical framework and "best practice" for using the paleo-climate model component of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (Phase 5) (CMIP5) to constrain future projections of climate using the same models. The constraints arise from measures of skill in hindcasting paleo-climate changes from the present over...
Article
Numerical convergence properties of a recently developed Jacobian-free Newton–Krylov (JFNK) solver are compared to the ones of the widely used EVP model when solving the sea ice momentum equation with a Viscous-Plastic (VP) formulation. To do so, very accurate reference solutions are produced with an independent Picard solver with an advective time...
Article
We present the results of an Antarctic spring field study of snow drift threshold measurements made using two custom drift sensors and a commercial parts-counting device. All three sensor types worked well at detecting drifting snow events, but the sensors recorded different magnitudes (particle count per unit time) of drift. Each sensor has a uniq...
Article
As the Arctic warms, sea-ice formation and melt regions are shifting. Ice retreats earlier, open water extends farther north, and fall freeze-up comes later. The changes are already having an impact on important features of the aquatic Arctic system such as surface productivity, water-column stratification, sea-ice velocities, and the export of fre...
Article
Summer hydrographic data (1920-2009) show a dramatic warming of the bottom water layer over the eastern Siberian shelf coastal zone (<10 m depth), since the mid-1980s, by 2.1°C. We attribute this warming to changes in the Arctic atmosphere. The enhanced summer cyclonicity results in warmer air temperatures and a reduction in ice extent, mainly thro...
Article
Full-text available
Ice algae are an important component of the carbon cycle in the Arctic. We investigate the dynamics of an ice algae bloom by coupling an ice algae-nutrient model with a multilayer σ coordinate thermodynamic sea ice model. The model is tested with the simulation of an algal bloom at the base of first-year ice over the spring. Model output is compare...
Article
Recent anisotropic ice dynamics models have emphasized that velocity can be discontinuous across active leads, rafts, or ridges and have described these discontinuities explicitly. Here we use the fact that velocity discontinuities must be aligned with characteristic directions (slip lines) in these models. The analysis is limited to quasi-steady b...
Article
Proxy evidence suggests that a mean atmospheric state, reminiscent of the positive phase of the North Atlantic/Arctic Oscillation (NAO), persisted throughout the early Holocene and resulted in a dipole pattern in sea-ice concentration between the north-eastern and north-western North Atlantic. A dynamic thermodynamic coupled sea-ice–ocean model is...
Article
In recent years, large changes in sea-ice extent have been observed in the Arctic Ocean, particularly in the Beaufort, Chukchi, East Siberian and Laptev seas. The spatial distribution of the sea ice loss are not unlike those simulated by the Community Climate System Model under increased greenhouse gas forcing. The same model (CCSM3) also predicts...
Article
Summer sea ice may persist along the northern flank of Canada and Greenland for decades longer than the rest of the Arctic, raising the possibility of a naturally formed refugium for ice-associated species. Observations and models indicate that some ice in this region forms locally, while some is transported to the area by winds and ocean currents....
Article
This paper examines the role of the Arctic Ocean Atlantic water (AW) in modifying the Laptev Sea shelf bottom hydrography on the basis of historical records from 1932 to 2008, field observations carried out in April-May 2008, and 2002-2009 cross-slope measurements. A climatology of bottom hydrography demonstrates warming that extends offshore from...
Article
Full-text available
We present an analysis of the variability of the liquid Arctic freshwater (FW) export, using a simulation from the Community Climate System Model Version 3 (CCSM3) that includes passive tracers for FW from different sources. It is shown that the FW exported through the western Canadian Arctic Archipelago (CAA) comes mainly from the Pacific and from...
Article
Full-text available
We have implemented the Jacobian-free Newton–Krylov (JFNK) method to solve the sea ice momentum equation with a viscous-plastic (VP) formulation. The JFNK method has many advantages: the system matrix (the Jacobian) does not need to be formed and stored, the method is parallelizable and the convergence can be nearly quadratic in the vicinity of the...
Article
Full-text available
Sea ice ecosystems are characterized by micro-algae living in brine inclusions. The growth rate of ice algae depends on light and nutrient supply. Here, the interactions between nutrients and brine dynamics under the influence of algae are investigated using a one-dimensional model. The model includes snow and ice thermodynamics with brine physics...
Article
Full-text available
Freshwater (FW) leaves the Arctic Ocean through sea-ice export and the outflow of low-salinity upper ocean water. Whereas the variability of the sea-ice export is known to be mainly caused by changes in the local wind and the thickness of the exported sea ice, the mechanisms that regulate the variability of the liquid FW export are still under inve...
Article
Surface height and mass balance changes of Taku and Lemon Creek Glaciers within Juneau Icefield, Alaska, are examined to determine the relationship between these parameters and climatic forcing. Both Taku and Lemon Creek Glaciers are located in a maritime climate, but they behave very differently. Taku Glacier, a former tidewater glacier, is 70 tim...
Article
In recent years, large changes in sea-ice extent have been observed in the Arctic Ocean, particularly in the Beaufort, Chukchi, East Siberian and Laptev seas. The spatial distribution of the sea ice loss are not unlike those simulated by the Community Climate System Model under increased greenhouse gas forcing. The same model (CCSM3) also predicts...
Article
The freshwater (FW) export variability from the Arctic Ocean is a topic of great interest, as the Arctic FW has the potential to affect the deep water formation in the North Atlantic. Because the FW in the upper ocean comes from many different sources (mainly river runoff, Pacific inflow, and sea ice melt), understanding the mechanisms that drive t...
Article
Arctic sea ice acts as a conveyor, collecting and transporting material across the central basin, and releasing it in the marginal ice zone (MIZ). Where and when ice with different transport histories melts, has a large impact on the MIZ and is critical for understanding the vulnerability of the Arctic system to climate change. This study focuses o...
Article
With the foreseeable increase in the strategic and economic importance of the Canadian Arctic Archipelago (CAA), a comprehensive picture of sea ice conditions at present and in the future is needed. However, due to the complex topography of the Canadian Arctic Archipelago (CAA), modelling sea ice fluxes in this area requires considerable spatial re...
Article
Fridtjof Nansen and Sir Ernest Shackelton, two of the most renowned polar explorers, who traveled to the North Pole in two different times, have many things in common. Their ships were frozen into the sea ice and meandered, both expeditions spanned three years, both leaders left their crews at some point, and all crew members survived. Nansen had a...
Article
Polar bears and other ice-dependent species could survive in northern extremes provided we act now to limit the impact of human activity in the Arctic
Article
The winter net sea-ice production (NSIP) over the Laptev Sea shelf is inferred from continuous summer-to-winter historical salinity records of 1960s-1990s. While the NSIP strongly depends on the assumed salinity of newly formed ice, the NSIP quasi-decadal variability can be linked to the wind-driven circulation anomalies in the Laptev Sea region. T...