Bruno Jérôme

Université Panthéon-Assas Paris 2 | UP2 · Economics

Most forecasting models for American presidential elections provide estimates of the national two-party vote. Since popular vote winners generally win a majority of Electoral College votes, these models can normally assume that their forecast offers a clear indication of who will end up in the Oval Office. Evidently, this assumption is not always w...

Election forecasting has become a fixture of election campaigns in a number of democracies. Structural modeling, the major approach to forecasting election results, relies on ‘fundamental’ economic and political variables to predict the incumbent’s vote share usually a few months in advance. Some political scientists contend that adding vote intent...

À chaque élection municipale, certains commentateurs annoncent des résultats largement tributaires de la conjoncture nationale. D'autres affirment que le sort des élus dépend avant tout de la situation locale.Dans la perspective d'anticiper les basculements à gauche ou à droite lors de ces scrutins, les auteurs ont analysé les résultats d'un panel...

The Grand Coalition Reappointed but Angela Merkel on Borrowed Time - Volume 50 Issue 3 - Bruno Jérôme, Véronique Jérôme-Speziari, Michael S. Lewis-Beck

Perhaps no variable in political science has received more attention than electoral participation. Despite, or because of, the great amount of research on this topic, significant new determinants for electoral participation have not been recently forthcoming. Here we offer a significant new determinant – patrimony. For theoretical reasons, we expec...

A Recap of the 2016 Election Forecasts - Volume 50 Issue 2 - James E. Campbell, Helmut Norpoth, Alan I. Abramowitz, Michael S. Lewis-Beck, Charles Tien, James E. Campbell, Robert S. Erikson, Christopher Wlezien, Brad Lockerbie, Thomas M. Holbrook, Bruno Jerôme, Véronique Jerôme-Speziari, Andreas Graefe, J. Scott Armstrong, Randall J. Jones, Alfred...

State-Level Forecasts for the 2016 US Presidential Elections: Political Economy Model Predicts Hillary Clinton Victory - Volume 49 Issue 4 - Bruno Jerôme, Véronique Jerôme-Speziari

Election forecasting has become a standard part of the tool kit for political scientists around the world. However, that focus is almost exclusively on forecasting national electoral contests. Here we offer another, unique, focus – the changing political color of the core nations of the European Union, the Fifteen. First, we offer a model that fore...

One hundred and forty two days before the 2012 US presidential election our final State-by-State Political-Economy Model gave an advantage to Barack Obama with 51.6% of the popular vote (error margin ± 4.47) and 324 electoral votes (Jerôme and Jerôme-Speziari 2012). On November 6, 2012, with 51.6% of the vote and 332 electoral votes, the Democratic...

In this article we go back to our forecast for the last 2012 French presidential election. Precisely, we analyze why our prediction giving Nicolas Sarkozy as a winner in a close race was on the wrong side of the line. However, paradoxically, we also investigate why our prediction was better than the polls in absolute value. This retrospective also...

Since 2008, the economic fallout from the subprime mortgage crisis has led to the defeat of a number of incumbents in the world's major democracies. For instance, in the former EU-15, eight countries (including France) have ousted their incumbents in favor of new leaders. The United States is no exception, and the 2012 US presidential election will...

In this article, we build a pooled time-series vote function for the 2012 French presidential election both at regional and national levels, taking into account our 2002 and 2007 past experiences. Particularly, a variable capturing the behaviour of François Bayrou’s voters has been included. From 2009 (Q1) up to 2011 (Q4), we have used the vote fun...

The Behavior of the Charity Market Actors The contribution of the economic analysis is essential to understand the behavior of giving market’s actors such as donors, recipients, charity organizations and the State. Altruism theory reconciles prosocial and rational behavior. Nevertheless, the opening toward a globalized solidarity makes potential be...

Most common work in the literature is based on aggregated models (see e.g., Campbell and Lewis-Beck, 2008) with some important exceptions that use data at the state level, e.g., Rosenstone (1983), Holbrook (1991) and Campbell (1992). These aggregated models, are based on either survey results or economic data at the national level. Here, in order t...

In this paper, we are trying first to exhibit why – paradoxically – the local economic performance is not able to explain the regional vote in France. In a second time, we build a Political Economy model (pooled time series), testing voting for regional incumbents and Front National as well. It turns out that the regional vote is influenced mainly...

Observing the distribution of the old European Union 15 (EU15) governments ordered by political families since 1978, a sharp Right–Left partisan cycle seems to appear. If we hypothesize that the EU15 is one geo-political unit called Euroland, such an empirical observation is accurate both for the aggregate number of Prime Ministers in office and fo...

Résumé. Prévoir le vote en tant que révélation des préférences des citoyens dans les choix collectifs permet d'évaluer les chances de succès des sortants ou de l'opposition et d'anticiper les politiques publiques futures. Dans cet article, nous donnons une prévision de l'élection présidentielle de 2007 en France à partir d'une fonction de vote mobi...

In this paper, using a Political Economy model (pooled time series), we show that voting behavior at regional elections in France is dominated by national factors. At the 2004 regional elections, the contest was marked by the government's economic and political performance, the new electoral rules, the first time the Left had been in opposition at...

The French rejection of the Treaty Establishing a Constitution for Europe on 29 May 2005 resulted from (1) fear of loss of national identity as a result of the European integration process and (2) the voters' sanction of the French government's record. Using cross-section data covering the 96 French metropolitan departments, we estimate referendum...

The presidential and legislative electoral contests had unusual outcomes. For only the second time since 1969, the Left was eliminated after the first ballot. In addition, voters acting as in the first ballot of a proportional election selected Jean-Marie Le Pen, leader of the National Front (FN) over Lionel Jospin, the incumbent Prime Minister. Fu...

Since 1984, the unknown factor in French political life has been the support for the National Front. More than ever, on April 21, 2002, the leader of the FN, Jean-Marie Le Pen demonstrated. In our research note, we try to explain the way of reducing uncertainty in building and forecasting a FN vote function (pooled time series) from decentralized e...

French politicians sometimes change election rules for political advantage. In the Spring of 2001, the ruling Socialists pushed through the inversion of the 2002 election calendar despite stiff opposition. What were the consequences of scheduling the presidential election before the legislature elections? Employing new techniques for French electio...

Dans les démocraties occidentales, l’économie tient une place non négligeable dans le choix des électeurs. Pour le modèle du vote économique, plus l’électeur pense que la situation économique s’améliore et plus il aura tendance à voter pour le gouvernement sortant. À l’inverse, s’il considère que les conditions économiques se sont détériorées, il s...

In France, the Regional vote incontestably obeys national politico-economic determinants. It serves as a simple barometer for the central government. Our model, forecasting 17 regional presidencies out of 22, indicated very early (2 months before the election) that in several regions no obvious majority would emerge and that, despite the Right havi...

In advanced democracies, are local political decisions determined by local events? Or are they really shaped by national forces? For the United States case, the evidence on this question is mixed. For the French case, the focus here, the evidence is also mixed, but less hard. In fact, for cantonal elections, in many ways archtypical local affairs,...

In France, political observers and politicians pay considerable attention to public opinion polls, using them as indicators of who will win the upcoming election. Before the 1997 French legislative contest, the polls consistently forecast a win for the ruling Right party coalition. To almost everyone's surprise, they were wrong. We document the ext...

In advanced democracies, are local political decisions determined by local events? Or are they really shaped by national forces? For the United States case, the evidence on this question is mixed. For the French case, the focus here, the evidence is also mixed, but less hard. In fact, for cantonal elections, in many ways archtypical local affairs,...

In France, political observers and politicians pay considerable attention to public opinion polls, using them as indicators of who will win the upcoming election. Before the 1997 French legislative contest, the polls consistently forecast a win for the ruling Right party coalition. To almost everyone's surprise, they were wrong. We document the ext...

Abstract will be provided by author.

Mémoire de DEA : Economie des politiques publiques / Paris 1 ; session d'octobre 1989.

Thesis (doctoral)--Université de Paris I: Panthéon-Sorbonne, 1993.