About
126
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Introduction
Current research interests:
- structural transformations (from the 1960s)
- inequality, income gap
- land and labor productivity
- biodiversity, agroecology, climate change
- world agriculture and food modeling
- future studies, foresight, scenarios (up to 2050)
- collective action, public policies/incentives
Methods and techniques
- macroeconomics, macro-modeling, biomass models
- statistics, econometrics
- live circle analysis/assessment (LCA)
- socio-economics, semi-directive interviews
- science and technology studies (STS)
Current institution
Additional affiliations
August 2002 - present
October 2000 - June 2002
January 1995 - August 2000
Centre de Sciences Humaines (CSH)
Position
- Managing Director
Education
January 1990 - March 1994
September 1988 - September 1989
September 1984 - August 1988
Publications
Publications (126)
How will the world be able to feed close to 9 billion people in 2050 and still maintain the ecosystems? The 21st century has three challenges to meet concerning food and agriculture: food security in terms of both quantity and quality; protection of the environment and natural resources; and the increasing scarcity of fossil energies. In this persp...
More than a fifth of the world's farmers live in India, which has over a billion inhabitants to support and feed. From Independence in 1947 to the lifting of trade barriers in 2001, this book explains how the Indian Union has succeeded in becoming one of the world's leading food producers, but also why it is still a land of poverty. The various asp...
In this paper, we model the supply and demand for agricultural goods and assess and compare how welfare, land use, and biodiversity are affected under intensive and extensive farming systems at market equilibrium instead of at exogenous production levels. As long as demand is responsive to price, and intensive farming has lower production costs, th...
The asynchronous but somewhat similar agricultural trajectories of sub-Saharan Africa and Asia, especially India, are analysed over nearly a century (1961–2050). Millions of pieces of data available on the past (1961–2007) and on a plausible future (2006–50 projections by the Food and Agriculture Organization) are organised in a simple world food m...
Models of world agriculture and food systems are used widely to predict future scenarios of land and resource uses. Starting with a brief history of world agriculture models since the 1960s, which shows their hybrid character as well as their limitations in representing real world diversity and options, this article then presents an alternative mod...
L’Union européenne et l’Union indienne ont industrialisé leur agriculture et leur alimentation depuis les années 1960. Elles mesurent aujourd’hui l’insoutenabilité d’un tel régime sociotechnique pour la santé des hommes et des écosystèmes. Elles formulent des vœux de « transition agroécologique » qui, en Europe, passent d’abord par l’Agriculture bi...
This book presents the first macroeconomic scenario of a full transition to agroecology in 2050. It is for Andhra Pradesh, a state in southern India with 53 million inhabitants and 9.3 million farmers in 2020. The "Community-managed Natural Farming" scenario is compared to an industrial food and agriculture intensification scenario to assess its pe...
Many countries have implemented policies to reduce the use of chemical inputs in agriculture. However, these policies face many obstacles that limit their effectiveness. The purpose of this paper is to review the main challenges associated with reducing chemical inputs in agriculture and to propose potential solutions. Our analysis, based on a lite...
After the disappearance of socialist State farms and cooperatives, the diversity of farms in the world seemed to have been reduced to a simple dichotomy: family farms on the one hand and corporate farming on the other. The former category, the dominant model on the planet, includes undertakings where labor is provided by the family, while corporate...
With the Green Revolution in Asia, the gap in agricultural yield with the developed world has been closed, while the gap in farm labour productivity has greatly widened. This reveals a deepening agrarian and environmental crisis in India. The industrial mode of production has led to the massive use of costly industrial inputs to increase yields and...
L’Inde a connu en 2021 le plus grand mouvement social paysan de son histoire. Celui-ci a réussi à s’opposer, avec succès, aux réformes libérales du marché agricole voulues par le gouvernement Modi. Si cette mobilisation se situe dans la droite ligne de la défense des intérêts de la petite paysannerie contre l’agro-industrie, elle ne manifeste par c...
India is the world’s largest producer of milk for over 20 years. This production mainly responds to growing domestic demand, and relies almost entirely on millions of small herds (3 female buffaloes or cows) fed with local crop residues. This paper aims to assess the socio-economic and environmental sustainability of this dairy development model by...
The global debate on food security and the kinds of farming systems that could prove economically and ecologically sustainable has focused overwhelmingly on small family farms versus large commercial farms, with little attention being given to alternative models based on farmer cooperation. France offers a significant but under-researched and inter...
Feeding 9 billion people by 2050 on one hand, and preserving biodiversity on the other hand, are two shared policy goals at the global level. Yet while these goals are clear, they are to some extent in conflict, because agriculture is a major cause of biodiversity loss, and the path to achieve both of them is at the heart of a public controversy ar...
Ce chapitre est le chapitre "économie" du livre "l'Inde Contemporaine" édité par Christophe Jaffrelot. Il reprend (notamment dans ses débuts, à partir de la crise financière de 1991) des éléments qui avaient été rédigés par Gilbert Etienne pour la version de l’ouvrage publiée en 2014, année de son décès. Outre la reprise ou l'actualisation de nombr...
Key messages
• Between 2000 and 2010, dairy development policies generated 50 000 jobs in family farming.
• Since 2009, national livestock policies have su pported the rise of industrial mega-farms.
• Mega-farms provide 7 times less rural employment than family farms in the dairy sector.
• Dairy mega-farms face major problems to adapt to their loca...
The asynchronous but somewhat similar agricultural trajectories of sub-Saharan Africa and Asia, especially India, are analysed over nearly a century (1961-2050). Millions of pieces of data available on the past (1961-2007) and on a plausible future (2006-50 projections by the Food and Agriculture Organization) are organised in a simple world food m...
Despite an average annual economic growth of 7% over twenty years, as against a population growth of 1.7% for the same period, in 2011 nearly 55% of the Indian workforce is still dependent on agriculture. Our paper, based on three levels of analysis (international comparisons since 1970, political economy since independence in 1947, micro-located a...
Because of tensions on fossil energy and phosphorus markets, the rise in fertilizer prices observed during the last decades may continue in the future, putting into question production pathways relying heavily on crop intensification. To evaluate how, in this context, economic choices may alter crop yields, we first construct different fertilizer p...
This study (http://hal.cirad.fr/cirad-01113012) rests on Agribiom, a simple world food-balance model in calories connecting land use and agricultural production to biomass consumption in various forms (food, feed, biofuel, etc.). This tool is used to revisit and discuss the 2012 revision of the “World Agriculture Towards 2030/50” of the Food and Ag...
This study rests on Agribiom, a simple world food-balance model in calories connecting land use and agricultural production to biomass consumption in various forms (food, feed, biofuel, etc.). This tool is used to revisit and discuss the 2012 revision of the “World Agriculture Towards 2030/50” of the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United...
This study (http://hal.cirad.fr/cirad-01112998) rests on Agribiom, a simple world food-balance model in calories connecting land use and agricultural production to biomass consumption in various forms (food, feed, biofuel, etc.). This tool is used to revisit and discuss the 2012 revision of the “World Agriculture Towards 2030/50” of the Food and Ag...
This study rests on Agribiom, a simple world food-balance model in calories connecting land use and agricultural production to biomass consumption in various forms (food, feed, biofuel, etc.). This tool is used to revisit and discuss the 2012 revision of the “World Agriculture Towards 2030/50” of the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United...
We show that whether intensive or extensive farming is most beneficial to biodiversity
depends on the equilibrium of agricultural markets. With higher production costs, extensive
farming tends to be more beneficial to biodiversity than intensive farming, except when there
is a very high degree of convexity between biodiversity and yield. Extensive...
Between 2006 and 2008, the Agrimonde Expert Panel focused on building two scenarios. In the first, “Agrimonde 1”, we imagined a food and agricultural system designed to be sustainable by 2050. The aim was to explore the conditions required for achievement, the dilemmas and the main challenges that such a scenario entails. “Agrimonde GO”, the second...
The central role of land-use change in the Earth System and its implications for food security, biodiversity and climate has spurred the development of global models that combine economical and agro-ecological drivers and constraints. With such a development of integrated approaches, evaluating the performance of global models of landuse against ob...
Video de 45 mn en ligne sur : http://www.iddri.org/IDDRI-flv/Multimedia (24/09/2013)
This atlas on rural change in Africa was prepared at the request of the NEPAD Agency and under the overall coordination and guidance of Ibrahim Assane Mayaki, NEPAD Agency CEO, Estherine Lisinge Fotabong, Programme Implementation and Coordination Director, and Benoît Faivre-Dupaigre, Agriculture Adviser to the CEO. It is part of the partnership bet...
As western-style food systems extend further around the world, food sustainability is becoming an increasingly important issue. Such systems are not sustainable in terms of their consumption of resources, their impact on ecosystems or their effect on health and social inequality. From 2009 to 2011, the duALIne project, led by INRA and CIRAD, assemb...
Industrialization and urbanization drive a paradoxical movement that brings together, concentrates and unifies on the one hand, takes away, separates and differentiates on the other. These contradictory trends feed two visions of the future of agriculture and food in the world, two contrasting visions from which arise the main current controversies...
http://www.globalcanopy.org/sites/default/files/LePetitLivredesGrandsMoteursdeDeforestation_FR.pdf
Nous montrons que la forme d’agriculture la plus intéressante pour la biodiversité dépend de l’équilibre
des marchés agricoles. Toutes choses égales par ailleurs, tant que la demande réagit aux prix et que
l’agriculture extensive a des coûts de production plus élevés, cette dernière est souvent plus
intéressante pour la biodiversité que l’agricultu...
http://www.globalcanopy.org/sites/default/files/ElPequenoLibrodelasGrandesCausasdelaDeforestacion_SP.pdf
http://www.globalcanopy.org/sites/default/files/LittleBookofBigDeforestationDrivers_EN.pdf
Une grande question fait débat, aussi bien d’un point de vue scientifique, que politique, ou encore sociétal : vaut-il mieux une agriculture intensive, qui laisse plus d’espaces disponibles pour des milieux naturels et pour la biodiversité, ou une agriculture extensive, consommatrice d’espaces mais favorisant la biodiversité sur ceux qu’elle consom...
This paper proposes a diagnosis based on estimates in kilocalories of almost all plant food
produced, traded and consumed in the continental Sub-Saharan Africa and Madagascar
(39 countries), from 1961 to 2003. These estimates are coupled with others (inhabitants,
active populations, surfaces) to first show what driving forces lead a country to rais...
Interactions between food demand, biomass energy and forest preservation are driving both food prices and land-use changes, regionally and globally. This study presents a new model called Nexus Land-Use version 1.0 which describes these interactions through a generic representation of agricultural intensification mechanisms within agricultural land...
Increasingly more studies are raising concerns about the increasing consumption of meat and the increasing amount of crops (cereals and oilseeds in particular) used to feed animals and that could be used to feed people. The evolution of this amount is very sensitive to human diets and to the productivity of feed. This article provides a 2050 foresi...
This paper proposes a diagnosis based on estimates in kilocalories of almost all plant food produced, traded and consumed in the continental Sub-Saharan Africa and Madagascar (39 countries), from 1961 to 2003. These estimates are coupled with others (inhabitants, active populations, surfaces) to first show what driving forces lead a country to rais...
http://www.isecoeco.org/conferences/isee2012-versao3/pdf/807.pdf
Interactions between food demand, biomass energy and forest preservation are driving both food prices and land-use changes, regionally and globally. This study presents a new model called Nexus Land-Use version 1.0 which describes these interactions through a generic representation of agricultural intensification mechanisms. The Nexus Land-Use mode...
Interactions between food demand, biomass energy and forest preservation are driving both food prices and land-use changes, regionally and globally. This study presents a new model called Nexus Land-Use which describes these interactions through a generic representation of agricultural intensification mechanisms. The Nexus Land-Use model equations...
This brief series was developed in preparation for the Foresight Breakout Session of the Global Conference on Agricultural Research for Development (GCARD 2012) and the Global Foresight Hub1. The briefs were written to communicate to a wider audience, such as policy makers, civil society organizations, researchers, and funders. The briefs were clas...
The brief describes the methodology and conclusions of a foresight project called Agrimonde. Between 2006 and 2008, this project gathered a panel of French experts who built two contrasting scenarios of the world's food and agricultural systems by 2050: Agrimonde GO, a business-as-usual scenario used as a reference point, and Agrimonde 1, a rupture...
Le XXIe siècle doit relever un triple défi pour l'agriculture et l'alimentation : la sécurité alimentaire, la protection de l’environnement et la raréfaction des énergies fossiles. Dans cette perspective, en 2006, l’Inra et le Cirad ont lancé l’initiative d’une plateforme prospective sur les enjeux relatifs aux systèmes alimentaires et agricoles mo...
How will the world be able to feed close to 9 billion people in 2050 and still maintain the ecosystems? The 21st century has three challenges to meet concerning food and agriculture: food security in terms of both quantity and quality; protection of the environment and natural resources; and the increasing scarcity of fossil energies. In this persp...
Cette revue d'écobilans de biocarburants synthétise un ensemble de questions soulevées par l'émergence de la production de biocarburants et la place ambitionnée pour ces derniers dans les consommations énergétiques à venir. Elle montre également que les écobilans réalisés à ce jour doivent être approfondis et harmonisés sur certains aspects méthodo...
1 Issues related to food, biomass energy and forest preservation are gener-ally analysed in a separate approach, exploring the potential of one variable given a reasonable evolution of the other. However, the current situation is caracterised by the combination of three challenges that have to be si-multaneously taken up: meeting growing food needs...
Agribiom is a quantitative tool devoted to the analysis of the world’s production, trade and use of biomass. Its construction was initiated in early 2006 at CIRAD, with the aim of creating a tool for use in collective scenario-building, such as the Agrimonde project, and in hybrid modelling exercises.
This chapter provides a retrospective overview of the world foodeconomy over four decades (1961–2003), with a world divided into six regions [those of the Millennium Ecosystem Assessment (MA)], and using material generated by Agribiom. We will outline here how Agribiom can be used to analyse or revisit the past, while subsequent chapters will show...
