Bruce Edward Tonn

University of Tennessee at Knoxville | UTK · Department of Political Science

This study reported herein assesses the health benefits attributable to weatherizing affordable multifamily buildings in the United States. Weatherization is a term used to describe programs that install comprehensive sets of energy efficiency measures into low-income homes and affordable multifamily buildings, such as air sealing, insulation, and...

Trend assessments suggest that poverty and health will worsen in the United States in the coming decades and that climate change will exacerbate these trends. An aging society, lack of affordable housing, and automation threaten the economic sustainability of millions of households. Despair, drug abuse, and unhealthy lifestyles have led to the firs...

The purpose of this research is to estimate the non-energy impacts that could be attributed to weatherizing low-income homes in Knoxville, Tennessee, USA. Commonly installed weatherization measures include insulation, air sealing, and heating system replacement. A hybrid quasi-experimental, cross-sectional research design was implemented. Under thi...

This paper explores the intersection of poverty, housing, and health among low-income weatherization program participants in the United States. These income-qualifying programs seek to reduce energy burden, which is the proportion of a household’s annual income spent on residential energy. These programs produce secondary benefits by reducing mater...

Wood-based pellets are produced in the southeastern United States (SE US) and shipped to Europe for the generation of heat and power. Effects of pellet production on selected Sustainability Development Goals (SDGs) are evaluated using industry information, available energy consumption data, and published research findings. Challenges associated wit...

As science and technology change our world, anticipating the unintended consequences becomes critical. This article presents a framework for identifying unintended consequences, especially unanticipated-unintended consequences, and prioritizing the necessary actions to mitigate or adapt. Content for the framework, and the distinctions among the ant...

This paper presents the results of two impact evaluations of the U.S. Department of Energy's Weatherization Assistance Program (WAP). This comprehensive weatherization program provides grants to U.S. states, which then provide grants to local weatherization agencies to weatherize income-eligible low-income homes. The program treats single family an...

Humanity needs to become more futures-oriented to address global catastrophic and existential risks, create sustainable societies and economies, and achieve its most laudable and worthy goals. Seminal work by Bell and Slaughter is cited to answer the question about why current generations should care about future generations. A new set of twelve ob...

The Department of Energy (DOE) administers the national low-income Weatherization Assistance Program (WAP). Under this program, DOE provides grants to states (grantees), which then provide grants to local weatherization agencies (subgrantees), to weatherize income-eligible homes for free. The American Recovery and Reinvestment Act (ARRA) of 2009 al...

To effectively deal with global-scale issues requires an appreciation of earth-scale integrated systems; both natural and anthropogenic. Exponentially increasing change within anthropogenic systems, driven by seemingly manic creative destruction, complicates efforts to understand natural and anthropogenic systems interactions. This is a wicked prob...

This chapter addresses whole earth monitoring, which is defined to include monitoring of geospheric and anthropogenic systems of systems and flows at all spatial levels, including cyberspace and outer space. Drivers for the creation of this system include public policy, knowledge creation, education and the development of the exposome. A plethora o...

In the United States and elsewhere, climate change, peak oil, and other political and socioeconomic factors have spurred the development of alternate energy sources. Biofuels, derived from living organisms rather than petroleum-laden rock, are the focus of current energy research. To better understand the future composition and sustainability of bi...

In addressing our charge from the General Assembly, we have placed heavy emphasis on providing background data and information to inform the public and policymakers. In other words, we have sought to provide a resource that will be of lasting value to those who are interested in state energy issues. Our goal is to provide stakeholders with a better...

Under what sets of conditions ought humanity undertake actions to reduce the risk of human extinction? Though many agree that the risk of human extinction is high and intolerable, there is little research into the actions society ought to undertake if one or more methods for estimating human extinction risk indicate that the acceptable threshold is...

The industrial sector in the United States consumes one-third of the nation's energy and emits one-fifth of the nation's carbon dioxide. It also consumes virgin materials at unsustainable rates and produces substantial amounts of wastes. To reverse these trends, the United States can transition to an infinitely reusable, recyclable, and renewable i...

Globally, three interrelated critical problems face society in the twenty-first century: population growth, shortages of vital requirements for human prosperity (water, food, energy, critical materials, full employment, health, hygiene, security, peace), and climate change. There are competing trends in terms of rising use of resources at the same...

Earth-scale convergence systems comprise dynamic, complex, and interrelated environmental Earth-scale systems, energy production and consumption systems, and man-made technological systems such as telecommunications and various metropolitan and agricultural infrastructure systems. This chapter views Earth-scale systems from five viewpoints: knowled...

The Home Performance with ENERGY STAR Program (HPwES) was established to promote a comprehensive, whole-house approach to retrofits. It is currently administered by the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) after being jointly administered by DOE and the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) since the Program's inception in 1999. This paper presents...

Researchers and commissions contend that the risk of human extinction is high, but none of these estimates have been based upon a rigorous methodology suitable for estimating existential risks. This article evaluates several methods that could be used to estimate the probability of human extinction. Traditional methods evaluated include: simple eli...

An elaboration of Dempster's method of constructing belief functions suggests a broadly applicable strategy for constructing lower probabilities under a variety of evidentiary constraints.

This paper describes Willow Pond, a future residential community that is moving toward self-sufficiency. Driven by volatile food prices and supplies, volatile energy prices and supplies, economic globalization, frustration with politics, and technological convergence, the residents of Willow Pond introduced a self-sufficient structure. Home systems...

Convergence of knowledge and technology for the benefit of society (CKTS) is the core opportunity for progress in the 21st century, based on five principles: (1) the interdependence of all components of nature and society, (2) enhancement of creativity and innovation through evolutionary processes of convergence that combine existing principles, an...

The Earth appears to be at the beginning of sixth massive species extinction. This paper balances a review of the forces threatening species survival with a comprehensive scan of factors that could act as counterweights. These factors could lead to four types of evolution-cultural, regulatory, ecological, and technological-that could individually o...

This paper explores the ways in which advanced information technologies could be used to improve governance in the future. In addition to providing an overview of the current uses of information technologies for governance, the paper offers a three-part vision of information technology in which intelligent systems assist decision structuring, evalu...

This paper explores changes to the court system that could improve governance in the future. In addition to reviewing the relevant trends, the paper offers three scenarios based on fixed, flexible, and improvisational frameworks and within-, pan-, and non-spatial jurisdictions. The solutions depicted in the scenarios draw heavily on innovative uses...

This paper presents the results of a workshop on the future of governance held at the University of Tennessee, Knoxville. The participants were broken into five groups based on different perspectives on governance: local, state, federal, international, and courts. Each group developed a definition of good governance, assessed trends impacting their...

Uploading human minds into computer systems is an intriguing concept. Will this process become part of our evolutionary future? This paper begins by arguing that successfully replicating human minds in virtual environments will require more than computing power and the ability to transfer the information content of neural connections into computer...

The results presented above suggest that for the factors presented here, poor indoor air quality does not plague the majority of low-income homes in the United States. It needs to be stressed, however, that these results should be considered preliminary in that only about onehalf of all the homes intended to be in this study were reported on above....

This paper presents a scenario depicting life in the United States in the year 2050. The scenario is designed to achieve energy sustainability: fossil fuels and corn ethanol have been replaced by other sustainable and inexhaustible energy sources. The scenario describes the disappearance of the suburbs, replaced by a mix of high density urban cente...

This article examines trends that are impacting democratic rationality. It is found that the trends are almost uniformly negative. Viewed from within the legislative branch, trends are negatively impacting legislators’ time, complexifying problems, constraining options, and limiting the evaluation of options. Trends external to the legislative bran...

This paper argues that the semantic difficulties surrounding the term ‘futures’ and its many variants have significantly impacted this field's legitimacy in public policy circles, as viewed from the experiences of this author. Lacking legitimacy, it has been difficult to build the number of academic programs in the United States needed to improve t...

This paper explores whether it is ever justifiable for the international community to forcibly intervene in countries that have unsustainable energy policies. The literature on obligations to future generations suggests, philosophically, that intervention might be justified under certain circumstances. Additionally, the world community has interven...

This paper describes the results of a participative planning class held in economically dis-advantaged communities in east Tennessee. The class follows a structured method, which includes community workshops and project development, in dealing with the communities. Among many observations gained in eight years of running the class are that citizens...

This paper presents the results of a web-based survey about futures issues. Among many questions, respondents were asked whether they believe humans will become extinct. Forty-five percent of the almost 600 respondents believe that humans will become extinct. Many of those holding this believe felt that humans could become extinct within 500–1000 y...

Mary Wollstonecraft Shelly's (MWS) novel, The Last Man, published in 1826, is an epic narrative about the destruction of the human race. This paper provides a synopsis of this book and assesses its relationships to contemporary future studies. The paper also delves into the history of apocalyptic writing and thinking, using this book an entry point...

This paper addresses the question, ‘what is the acceptable risk of human extinction?’ Three qualitative obligations to future generations – The Fairness Criterion, The Unfinished Business Criterion, and the Maintaining Options Criterion – are used to produce quantitative estimates of the acceptable risk. The resulting acceptable risks are all at or...

This paper presents a scenario, a written narrative that describes a series of events that could lead to the extinction of humans as a species. The scenario is built upon three blocks of events. The first contains events that could severely and rapidly reduce human population in a relatively few years. The second block of events describes the regre...

This study evaluates how urban residents value variety, spatial configuration, and patterns of open space in their neighborhoods. Quantitative matrices that were borrowed from landscape ecology were first used to measure the variety and spatial arrangement of open space plots and landuses around houses. Amenity values of those measures were then ev...

This paper presents United States energy portfolios for the year 2030, developed from seven different Perspectives. The Perspectives are characterized by different weights placed on fourteen defining values (e.g., cost, social acceptance). The portfolios were constructed to achieve three primary goals, energy independence, energy security, and gree...

This paper presents a set of metrics used to evaluate short-run knowledge benefits that accrued from research and development (R&D) projects funded in fiscal years 2000-2004 by automotive lightweighting materials (ALM) of the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE). Although DOE presents to Congress energy, environmental, and security benefits and costs of...

The authors of The US Hazardous Waste Legacy (Environment, July/August 1992) answer some of the questions raised during discussion of this article. There is agreement that there should be incentives to improve the productivity of the remediation technology. They agree that the debate over benefits derived through the US hazardous waste programs sho...

This paper presents results of a second international web-based survey designed to gather data about how individuals approach thinking about their futures and making decisions regarding their futures. Five hundred and five respondents from 38 countries participated in the survey. Similar to the first survey, the sample has gender, age and religious...

This paper presents a methodology for organizing and quantifying the results of environmental scanning exercises. The first step of the methodology is to develop a simple systems model whose components capture the essence of the problem context under study. Then, a scan identifies leads that affect one or more components. The impact a lead may have...

This paper presents the results of a program evaluation, using two economic analysis techniques (benefit-cost ratios and person-years/cost savings), conducted on nine research and development projects funded in four lightweight materials areas by the Phase II Automotive Lightweighting Materials effort of the US Department of Energy (DOE). The resul...

This article presents a strategic framework to guide public policy with respect to very long-term futures. The framework is based upon three fundamental principles. Threats to meeting the principles are assessed. Integrated planning responses to overcoming the threats are proposed. Significant changes in economic, political and social theory and or...

This research explores the validity of several hypotheses concerning the future-orientedness of countries. Nine hypotheses that relate futures-orientedness to characteristics of countries are presented. Several of these hypotheses represent ‘conventional wisdom’ about the differences between developed and developing countries and their respective v...

The U.S. Department of Energy is undertaking a new national evaluation of its Weatherization Assistance Program. Following the evaluation plan developed by the Oak Ridge National Laboratory, four studies will be performed to evaluate the Program as it was implemented in PY 2006: an impact assessment, a process assessment, special technical studies,...

This paper describes benefits attributable to state-level energy efficiency programs. Nationwide, state-level energy efficiency programs have targeted all sectors of the economy and have employed a wide range of methods to promote energy efficiency. Standard residential and industrial programs typically identify between 20% and 30% energy savings i...

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) was established in 1988 by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) and the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP). The role of the IPCC “is to assess on a comprehensive, open and transparent basis the scientific, technical and socio-economic information relevant to understanding the scie...

In recent years, an increasing amount of research in Artificial Intelligence has focused on the representation and manipulation of uncertainty in expert systems. New approaches have been developed and justified because of their mathematical rigor or simplicity, cautiousness, programmability, and/or ability to capture the essence of natural language...

Knowledge engineers often find that experts’ estimates of uncertainty change from one day to the next and therefore often seem unreliable. This article explores the unreliability of probability estimates. Forty undergraduates answered 31 questions concerning the probability of daily events at two separate times. Three answer modalities were availab...

When forest is harvested some of the forest carbon ends up in wood products. If the forest is managed so that the standing stock of the forest remains constant over time, and the stock of wood products is increasing, then carbon dioxide is being removed from the atmosphere in net and this should be reflected in accounting for greenhouse gas emissio...

This piece explores the relationships between a rapidly aging U.S. population and the demand for residential energy. Data indicate that elderly persons use more residential energy than younger persons. In this time of steeply rising energy costs, energy is an especially important financial issue for the elderly with low and/or fixed incomes. As the...

In this paper, the relationships between three endogenous variables - thinking about, worrying about, and imagining the future - and the relationships between these variables and a rich set of exogenous variables were explored. Data were collected via a web-based survey using a sample of convenience; 572 individuals from 24 different countries comp...

This paper reports the results of a web-based survey concerning how people think about the future. Five hundred and seventy-two people from 24 countries completed the survey. The results indicate that when the respondents hear the word ‘future’, they think about a point in time 15 years into the future, on average, with a median response of 10 year...

This paper assesses the current status and future prospects for bioregional planning in the Southern Appalachian Man and the Biosphere (SAMAB) region in the United States. The SAMAB region is one of the most biodiverse temperate regions in the world. The region's environment is threatened by development, air and water pollution, and invasive specie...

This paper argues that imprecise probability can be used to describe uncertainty about scenarios. Scenarios are conceptualized as written descriptions of potential future worlds that are based on assessments of economic, political, social, technological, and environmental trends [This description of scenarios follows that provided by Peter Schwartz...

This article addresses tropospheric ozone, created by privately owned vehicles, that may be observed in the Great Smoky Mountains National Park in the year 2025, if current trends continue. The uniqueness of our research is twofold: (a) it considers the potential of human settlement patterns in a study region based on existing activities (including...

This paper assesses the contextual, programmatic and decision-making factors that affect the performance of mature municipal solid waste recycling programs. Tobit models were prepared for cities with populations of less than or more than 25 000 to facilitate analysis of recycling performance. Recycling participation rates were found to be higher am...

This paper evaluates the short-run benefits of research and development (R&D) projects funded by the Automotive Lightweighting Materials (ALM) Program of the Office of FreedomCAR and Vehicle Technologies of the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE). The six ALM projects evaluated—using qualitative and quantitative evaluation methods—yielded numerous bene...

A national web-based system called MyEmpowerNet.gov is proposed to empower citizens to become more involved in public decision making and to increase social capital. The system would be designed to allow citizens more voice in bureaucratic decision making on topics as diverse as the management of national forests to changes in local zoning ordinanc...

This article presents the results of a web survey of 118 residents in the Knoxville, Tennessee, metropolitan region to explore the impacts of the use of e-mail and the Internet on personal trip-making behavior. Respondents were required to be active drivers and users of e-mail and/or the Internet. Approximately 40% reported that their use of these...

This paper imagines a US society that is obsessed with survival over the very long-term, not just over the next decade or two but over very long-time spans measured in the thousands and millions of years. Given that Americans tend to be achievement-oriented, it is plausible that they could become enthralled with this ultimate challenge. It is folly...

This article presents an environmental plan for the area surrounding the Middle Nolichucky River in northeastern Tennessee, developed for a nonprofit group called the Friends of the Nolichucky River, by the University of Tennessee, Knoxville. The plan is broadly conceived because stakeholders' concepts of the environment include the natural environ...

This paper develops the concept of integrated 1000-year planning. The products of 1000-year planning, referred to as 1000-year plans, are intended to deal with issues on a global scale and address the survival of humanity and the protection of the earth’s environment. One thousand years is an appropriate global planning horizon because it is long e...

This paper presents benefit-cost analyses for three R&D projects funded by the Automotive Lightweighting Materials Program of the US Department of Energy: design and product optimisation for cast light metals; durability of lightweight composite structures; and rapid tooling for functional prototyping of metal mould processes. Market penetration ra...

The purpose of this paper is to summarize the findings reported recently in the literature on non-energy benefits attributable to the weatherizing of low-income homes. Non-energy benefits are divided into three major categories: (1) ratepayer benefits; (2) household benefits; and (3) societal benefits. The ratepayer benefits can be divided into two...

This paper presents an alternative framework to the approach currently embodied in the Kyoto Protocol for managing global climate change post-2012. The framework has two key provisions. The first is that each person in the world would be ‘allowed’ an equal amount of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. This is labeled the equity-first provision. The sec...

This article assesses solid and hazardous wastes that would be generated through the production of new, lightweight, fuel-efficient vehicles. In these vehicles, steel is replaced with aluminum, titanium, magnesium, plastics, and glass and carbon fibers. In addition to total volumes, we pay particular attention to a subset of highly toxic chemical c...

At the dawn of a new millennium, with the past one thousand years ready for reflection and the up-coming one thousand years primed for exciting new adventures, humankind seems to be trapped in the box of myopic, short-term decision making. Voices pleading to expand the horizons of our decision making to ensure sustainability of our species and coun...

The purpose of this project was to assess the relationships between two United States (US) federal-level programs that support low-income households, the Weatherization Assistance Program and the Low-Income Home Energy Assistance Program (LIHEAP). The study area for this project was Boston, Massachusetts, which is a representative of large northern...

This article describes a methodology, called the Product Attribute Characterization Technique (PACT), which is designed to elicit from informants information to group and describe products. The methodology was developed for use by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in price-indexing efforts. Informants are required to complete three tasks: provide a li...

This paper presents a methodology designed to measure synergy among energy-efficiency programs at the program participant level (e.g., households, firms). Three different definitions of synergy are provided: strong, moderate, and weak. Data to measure synergy can be collected through simple survey questions. Straightforward mathematical techniques...

Globalization, in its capitalistic and popular cultural form, is impacting communities around the world. This paper uses two models to show how globalization actually arose several millennia ago and how the process has greatly accelerated in recent times. One model describes the ‘information technology system’ and the second is James Miller’s livin...