Boris Porfiriev

• Russian Academy of Sciences

Structural and technological shifts and trends of the Russia economy modernization are considered within the context and as a strategic response to the four major challenges to the national security and sustainable development. The challenges above include: demographic (population shrinking and ageing) issues, technological lagging and dependence o...

The paper discusses the main directions transformation of the economic model in Russia. To substantiate its basic characteristics, the key trends in the development of the global economy are consistently considered, as well as the potential for increasing the domestic market both in terms of stimulating demand and developing supply. Special attenti...

The article is the second of the two contributions based upon the authors' studies and reports provided to Horizon-2040. It attempts to project the issues of global environmental and climate changes tackled in the previous paper on the situation in Russia. The most important challenges both existing now and assumed to exacerbate in the coming decad...

The article is the first of the two contributions based upon the authors’ studies and reports provided to Horizon-2040. The latter is a project organized by the Agency for Strategic Initiatives serving a platform for strategic dialogue to determine the role and position of Russia in the international arena in 2040 and produce scenarios for the nati...

This article is dedicated to the methodology of assessing the expected damage from permafrost degradation to fixed assets and its impact on the Russian economy. A forecast for the development of Russia’s economy until 2050 is presented with account for the consequences of permafrost degradation, including changes in the main macroeconomic indicator...

We present an extensive discussion of the linguistic, conceptual and practical issues in discussing the category of disaster. It is argued that there are two principle orientations or approaches to research, namely, an applied/pragmatic one and a theoretical/conceptual one. These are based on ontological and epistemological grounds, respectively, w...

This article is a supplemented and updated version of the report at the meeting of the Presidium of the Russian Academy of Sciences with the participation of the leadership of the Russian Ministry of Economic Development on September 21, 2021. The authors analyze the main opportunities and risks of implementing the Strategy for the Socioeconomic De...

The climate agenda involves significant economic dimension and component. This is precipitated, on the one hand, by the climate change impact on the economy and its implications for economic development that necessitate costs for planning and implementing adaptation measures, and, on the other hand, by the imperatives of structural and technologica...

Throughout this chapter the authors focus on the comprehensive assessment of sustainable development of the Russian Arctic in terms of sustainability as a complex characteristic of the state and potential of socioeconomic systems. Various current and emerging (expected) risks for sustainable development of the Russian Arctic are considered, includi...

The COVID-19 pandemic has severely affected all countries and the global scientific agenda, particularly that of health, economy, environment, geography and geosciences in general. This Special Issue is also a contribution to the global efforts of the scientific community in the analysis of the geography of the COVID-19 pandemic with public health,...

Recent inclusion of the issue of economy decarbonization in the global agenda has been affecting social and political priorities. To lower greenhouse gas emissions, Russian economy has to reduce anthropogenic emissions and maximise the carbon sequestration potential of national forests. The paper demonstrates that Russian forest ecosystems compensa...

The methodology and results of economic assessment and forecasting of the consequences of the most negative global climate change IPCC scenario (RCP 8.5) representative for the conditions of the Russian Arctic in the form of thawing and degradation of permafrost for healthcare facilities in eight Arctic regions of the Russian Federation are discuss...

The article discusses the key risks of implementing a strategy for long-term socio-economic development of Russia with a low level of greenhouse gas emissions. In recent years, the climate agenda has been the most important driver of structural shifts in the world economy and is viewed by leading countries as a factor in intensifying economic growt...

This article is devoted to the methodology and analysis of the results of economic assessment and forecasting of the consequences of global climate change in the form of permafrost thawing and degradation for the housing sector in eight regions of the Russian Arctic. Changes in the state of permafrost soils during the implementation of the most neg...

The state Arctic policy of Russia has no analogues in terms of the variety of tasks and the scale of risks of their implementation – from natural and climatic to foreign policy. Its most important subject was the consistent combination of new state and corporate solutions with the re-development of the «Soviet heritage». Today, this “heritage” acco...

The report contains proposals of VEO of Russia experts on the restoration of Russian economy and the transition to a dynamic and sustainable socioeconomic development. According to experts it is necessary to double the government’s anti-crisis measures in 2021 and maintain them at this level in the period 2022–2023. An increase of the anti-crisis p...

The article contemplates and evaluates the changes in the Russian economy precipitated by the epidemic of a new coronavirus. The key constraints of the development of the Russian economy in the medium and long term perspectives are analyzed. The basic action strategies and a set of economic policy measures to strengthen the potential for economic g...

The relationship and interaction between natural science and sociohumanities knowledge and methods of studying global and regional climate changes and their socioeconomic consequences are analyzed. It is argued that the methodological and instrumental basis of the interaction above involve risk theory and modeling. The key results include a compreh...

The paper contemplates massive transformation processes in the Russian Arctic zone, identified by the authors as the “re-development” of the Arctic, which integrate resource-intensive but necessary exploitation of the huge “Soviet legacy” and construction of the novel industrial and social facilities and infrastructure. The key role of Russian Arct...

The problem of adjusting national projects in the context of systemic changes in the socio-economic situation in the world and in Russia at the end of 2019 and in the current 2020 is considered.

RCP8.5) из вариантов прогноза глобальных из-менений климата IPCC как наиболее соответствующий условиям российской Арктики. В качестве базы прогнозов развития дорожной инфраструктуры выступают данные Транспортной стратегии РФ до 2035 г. с уточнениями авторов. Показано, что при инерционном (консервативном) сценарии разви-тия дорожной инфраструктуры в...

Three model scenarios of changes in road infrastructure sustainability under permafrost thawing and degradation due to global climate change in nine Russian Arctic regions are considered. Until the current mid-century, economic assessment of the aftermath of climate change in these regions was physicogeographically based on six model climate assess...

The specifics of the current socioeconomic situation and the state and prospects of development of Russian regions and municipalities are largely determined by the legal environment, which forms under the strongest influence of the “federal presence”—centralization of the federal government in a decentralized state. In fact, the legal field of Russ...

In continuation of the topic of choosing an effective strategy on coping with climate change and its impact (see [1]), this paper considers the strategy above within the framework of the conditions, imperatives, and prospects of the socio-economic development of modern Russia. It is substantiated that this strategy should imply the implementation o...

The issues involved in choosing an effective response to the challenge of climate change are considered. The paradigm of a low-carbon economy is analyzed critically using the criterion of stabilizing global warming so that it does not exceed 2°С warming by the end of the 21st century. The criteria of improving citizens’ quality of life and providin...

The choice of an efficient response to climate challenge to Russia’s sustainable development is considered. The low-carbon economy paradigm is analyzed critically in terms of its ability to stabilize the climate situation (not to exceed the 2°C growth of the global air temperature by the end of the 21st century), improve the quality of life, and pr...

Russian regions containing permafrost play an important role in the Russian economy, containing vast reserves of natural resources and hosting large-scale infrastructure to facilitate these resources' exploitation. Rapidly changing climatic conditions are a major concern for the future economic development of these regions. This study examines the...

Recent changes in the Russian Arctic are often unique in terms of their nature and intensity. Fundamentally new production and infrastructure facilities are being launched, the innovative development of external defense facilities is being completed. Furthermore, the territories of corporate management and support zones for the development of Russi...

The article discusses the role of environmental and climate factors in the modernization of the global and Russian economies in the context of the challenges presented by the new industrial revolution. It is emphasized that a restraining effect of these factors on economic growth is primarily caused by qualitative characteristics of technologies us...

The persistent lack of a generally accepted scientific definition of city seriously hinders the implementation of sustainable development goals adopted by the United Nations as universal strategic guidelines for world progress until 2030, including the sustainable development of cities and settlements. In connection with this, actual problems of de...

The article proposes and substantiates the main directions and measures of economic policy that allow us to increase the pace and quality of economic growth in Russia.

The efficiency of public administration of social and economic development of the Arctic zone of the Russian Federation (AZRF), as well as the stimulation of economically, socially and environmentally justified activities of investors and business entities in that zone, largely depend on the availability of specific regulatory and legal mechanisms....

Based on the case study of Tuymazinsky District in the Republic of Bashkortostan introduced and tested is a methodology for assessing the environmental hazard of industrial enterprises using integral zoning diagrams. Calculations have been carried out and an algorithm for constructing histograms of environmental damage from emergency situations has...

A bunch of papers has been published by foreign and Russian researchers on climate change impact on the environment and regional socioeconomic development. The bulk of them is focused on analyzing drivers and impact assessments for the Arctic region characterized by the most intensive climate change worldwide. The paper puts to the fore a nontrivia...

Purpose: the research paper purports to substantiate the must and opportunity of consistent combination integration of the policies of technological modernization, transition to socially-oriented economy and sustainable spatial development as an imperative requirement of the Arctic zone of the Russian Federation (AZRF) re-development.Methods: resea...

Development strategy of the world's largest cities in recent years "turned green" substantially and include as priority the maintenance of the quality of the environment and reduce the risks posed by global climate change. The article analyzes the Sustainable Development Goals of the United Nations (2016-2030) from the standpoint of sustainability...

Abstract—This article identifies particular characteristics of expert appraisal of projects included in macroregional development programs. These features are determined by uniqueness of these administrative-territorial entities, which is exemplified by the Russian Arctic Zone. This article also analyzes the potential of organizing expert appraisal...

The article shows the importance of assessing the effectiveness of government programs due to the increasingly widespread use of the program approach in the system of public administration, strategic planning, and the formation of budgets at all levels. The problems and the possibilities of assessing the effectiveness of government programs, “Socio...

Innovative modernization of the economy is a multifactorial process. One of these factors, which attracts the attention of the high political and business circles, could be described as the green factor of innovative modernization. This factor means a combination of environmental and climate challenges for long-term economic growth and development...

Summarized are fi ndings of the research study “Special-purpose program management of comprehensive development of the Arctic area of the Russian Federation”) based on systems methodology, partially published in 2014-2015 and funded by the Russian Science Foundation. The fi ndings above include substantiation of the uniqueness of the Arctic area of...

In this paper, the redevelopment of the Russian Arctic is conceptualised as the largest mega project and the country’s new northern vector of social and economic development in the medium and long term. The related problems are analyzed. The scientific capacity required to solve this problem is evaluated. Recommendations are proposed to strengthen...

The paper overviews the existing methodologies for evaluating economic losses incurred by untimely and additional deaths provoked by natural and technological disasters. It also reveals the improved methodology of such an assessment based on welfare theory and international comparisons approach, and outcomes of the case study using this methodology...