Boris Orlowsky

Boris Orlowsky
CARITAS Switzerland, University of Zurich and climate-babel.org

Dr.

About

52
Publications
18,302
Reads
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6,370
Citations
Additional affiliations
January 2017 - present
CARITAS Switzerland
Position
  • Consultant
June 2015 - present
University of Zurich
Position
  • Researcher
Description
  • Project coordination of PACC Peru. Climate change science for climate change adaptation.
January 2013 - present
climate-babel.org
Position
  • Consultant
Description
  • climate change and data analysis
Education
May 2004 - July 2007
April 2000 - March 2004
Freie Universität Berlin
Field of study
  • Geophysics
April 1999 - March 2000
University of Tuebingen
Field of study
  • Physics

Publications

Publications (52)
Article
Full-text available
This article reflects on the merits and shortfalls of bilateral research programmes aimed at strengthening climate change research capabilities, using the experience from two programmes, the PACC and IHCAP in Peru and India, respectively. The study highlights key aspects of these types of bilateral programmes, namely: capacity; performance, salary...
Article
Full-text available
Drought indices based on precipitation are commonly used to identify and characterize droughts. Due to the general complexity of droughts, the comparison of index-identified events with droughts at different levels of the complete system, including soil humidity or river discharges, relies typically on model simulations of the latter, entailing pot...
Article
Abstract Purpose – Although the importance of climate change is generally acknowledged, its impacts are often not taken into account explicitly when planning development projects. This being due to limited resources, among others, this paper aims to propose a simple and low-cost approach to assess the viability of human activities under climate cha...
Article
Full-text available
Drought indices based on precipitation are commonly used to identify and characterize droughts. Due to the general complexity of droughts, comparison of index-identified events with droughts rely typically on model simulations of the complete hydrological system (e.g., soil humidity or river discharges), entailing potentially significant uncertaint...
Data
Data S1. Bioenergy production and sustainable development: limited science base for policy making‐Protocol. Table S1. Characterization. Table S2. Conditions. Table S3. Potential impacts. Table S4. Possible answers to potential impacts.
Data
Data S3. Article selection and data extraction. Table S13. Basic set of articles. Table S14. Appraisal results. Table S15. Set of studies included in the data extraction. Table S16. Data extraction – Characterization. Table S17. Data extraction – Conditions. Table S18. Data extraction – Potential impacts.
Data
Data S2. Additional results. Table S5. Number of studies per category and impact (n = 316). Table S6. Positive, negative and neutral impacts. Table S7. Methodological approaches used. Table S8. Methodological approach per impact considered. Table S9. Number of articles per method. Table S10. Cross‐analysis potential vs. bioenergy resource. T...
Data
Data S4. Regional distribution of each impact considered in the systematic review. Figure S1. Regional distribution of impacts on energy independence. Figure S2. Regional distribution of impacts on land tenure. Figure S3. Regional distribution of impacts on cross‐sectoral coordination. Figure S4. Regional distribution of impacts on labour right...
Chapter
Within the context of the Climate Change Adaptation Program (PACC), a number of scientific investigations on water resources, natural disasters and perceptions by local people highlight adaptation needs in the regions of Cusco and Apurímac in Peru, considering past, present-day and future climate conditions. This chapter compiles their findings and...
Article
Full-text available
A comprehensive assessment of the partitioning of precipitation (P) into evapotranspiration (E) and runoff (Q) is of major importance for a wide range of socio-economic sectors. For climatological averages, the Budyko framework provides a simple first-order relationship to estimate water availability represented by the ratio E / P as a function of...
Article
Full-text available
The possibility of using bioenergy as a climate change mitigation measure has sparked a discussion of whether and how bioenergy production contributes to sustainable development. We undertook a systematic review of the scientific literature to illuminate this relationship and found a limited scientific basis for policy-making. Our results indicate...
Article
Full-text available
Water availability is of major importance for a wide range of socio-economic sectors. Over land, the partitioning of precipitation (P) into evapotranspiration (E) and runoff (Q) is the key process to assess hydrological conditions. For climatological averages, the Budyko framework provides a simple first order relationship to estimate the evaporati...
Article
Full-text available
Water availability is of major importance for a wide range of socio-economic sectors. Over land, the partitioning of precipitation (P) into evapotranspiration (E) and runoff (Q) is the key process to assess hydrological conditions. For climatological averages, the Budyko framework provides a simple first order relationship to estimate the evaporati...
Article
Full-text available
Soil moisture impacts on precipitation have been strongly debated. Recent observational evidence of afternoon rain falling preferentially over land parcels that are drier than the surrounding areas (negative spatial effect), contrasts with previous reports of a predominant positive temporal effect. However, whether spatial effects relating to soil...
Article
Full-text available
Water availability is of importance for a wide range of ecological, climatological and socio-economic applications. Over land, the partitioning of precipitation into evapotranspiration and runoff essentially determines the availability of water. At mean annual catchment scales, the widely used Budyko framework provides a simple, deterministic, firs...
Article
Full-text available
Changes in the hydrological conditions of the land surface have substantial impacts on society. Yet assessments of observed continental dryness trends yield contradicting results. The concept that dry regions dry out further, whereas wet regions become wetter as the climate warms has been proposed as a simplified summary of expected as well as obse...
Article
Full-text available
The feedback between soil moisture and precip-itation has long been a topic of interest due to its potential for improving weather and seasonal forecasts. The generally proposed mechanism assumes a control of soil moisture on precipitation via the partitioning of the surface turbulent heat fluxes, as assessed via the evaporative fraction (EF), i.e....
Article
Full-text available
The prospects of validating areal data from climate models by site observations depend critically on the spatial representativeness of the sites. This paper introduces a simple parameter-free approach to quantify the spatial representativeness of single stations with an application to time series of daily near surface air temperature and precipitat...
Article
Full-text available
The populations of most nations consume products of both domestic and foreign origin, importing together with the products the water which is expended abroad for their production (termed 'virtual water'). Therefore, any investigation of the sustainability of present-day water consumption under future climate change needs to consider the effects of...
Article
Full-text available
The feedback between soil moisture and precipitation has long been a topic of interest due to its potential for improving weather and seasonal forecasts. The generally proposed mechanism assumes a control of soil moisture on precipitation via the partitioning of the surface turbulent heat fluxes, as assessed via the Evaporative Fraction, EF, i.e. t...
Article
Full-text available
Recent years have seen a number of severe droughts in different regions around the world, causing agricultural and economic losses, famines and migration. Despite their devastating consequences, the Standardised Precipitation Index (SPI) of these events lies within the general range of observation-based SPI time series and simulations from the 5th...
Article
Changes in the climatological land water balance affect a wide range of socio-economical issues. Thus, the identification of regions undergoing a substantial drying or wetting is of major interest in climate science. Despite the simplicity of the underlying water balance equation, its individual variables are of complex nature. Global estimates, ei...
Article
An accurate estimate of the climatological land water balance is essential for a wide range of socio-economical issues. Despite the simplicity of the underlying water balance equation, its individual variables are of complex nature. Global estimates, either derived from observations or from models, of precipitation (P ) and especially evapotranspir...
Article
The coupling between soil moisture and convective precipitation through indirect mechanisms (e.g. boundary-layer growth and convection triggering) remains a key challenge out of numerous aspects on the interactions between the land surface and precipitation. In particular, how surface turbulent fluxes (sensible, latent heat fluxes and their partiti...
Article
Full-text available
Recent years have seen a number of severe droughts in different regions around the world, causing agricultural and economic losses, famines and migration. Despite their devastating consequences, the Standardised Precipitation Index (SPI) of these events lies within the range of internal climate variability, which we estimate from simulations from t...
Article
Droughts are among the most impacting phenomena of a changing climate, affecting agricultural productivity and human health. They can furthermore interact with and amplify other climatic extreme events such as heat waves. Our analysis of the CMIP5 ensemble of GCM simulations identifies several hot spots of aggravating droughts in coming decades, su...
Article
Interactions between land-surface and precipitation are an important component of the climate system and have been the subject of numerous studies. However, in particular the feedback between soil moisture and convective rainfall through indirect mechanisms (e.g., boundary-layer growth and convection triggering related to evapotranspiration) remain...
Article
Full-text available
This study systematically analyzes the complete IPCC AR4 (CMIP3) ensemble of GCM simulations with respect to changes in extreme event characteristics at the end of the 21st century compared to present-day conditions. It complements previous studies by investigating a more comprehensive database and considering seasonal changes beside the annual tim...
Article
Soil moisture is a key variable of the climate system. It constrains plant transpiration and photosynthesis in several regions of the world, with consequent impacts on the water, energy and biogeochemical cycles (e.g. Seneviratne et al. 2010). Moreover it is a storage component for precipitation and radiation anomalies, inducing persistence in the...
Article
Full-text available
1] This study introduces Classification and Regression Trees (CARTs) as a new tool to explore spatial relationships between different climate patterns in a multimodel ensemble. We demonstrate the potential of CARTs by a simple case study based on time‐aggregated patterns of circulation (represented by average levels and variabilities of sea level p...
Article
Full-text available
Climate change is expected to affect not only the means of climatic variables, but also their variabilities(1,2) and extremes such as heat waves(2-6). In particular, modelling studies have postulated a possible impact of soil-moisture deficit and drought on hot extremes(7-11). Such effects could be responsible for impending changes in the occurrenc...
Article
Full-text available
In some regions of the world, soil moisture has a typical memory for atmospheric processes and can also feed back to the latter. Thus, a better understanding of feedbacks between soil moisture and the atmosphere could provide promising perspectives for increased seasonal predictability. Besides numerical simulations, statistical analysis of existin...
Article
Full-text available
The authors describe a statistical analog resampling scheme, similar to the "intentionally biased bootstrap,'' for future climate projections whose only constraint is a prescribed linear temperature trend. It provides a large ensemble of day-to-day time series of single-station weather variables and other climatological observations at low computat...
Article
Soil moisture is a key variable of the climate system. It constrains plant transpiration and photosynthesis in several regions of the world, with consequent impacts on the water, energy and biogeochemical cycles. Moreover it is a storage component for precipitation and radiation anomalies, inducing persistence in the climate system. Finally, it is...
Article
In this contribution we analyze the seasonality of the European warming and its spatial patterns. They are found to exhibit distinct and systematic characteristics and in some regions contradict trends found at the continental scale, for example the stronger warming of winter compared to summer. Several potential drivers of these patterns are inves...
Article
Different statistical methods are combined for the comparison of the spatial structures of two data-sets. This is useful for the validation of climate simulation data with respect to observational data of the same spatial and temporal coverage. We assume that simulated data and observed data are both given as time-series at locations such as grid c...
Article
This paper examines reversal of the common downscaling path from large-scale circulation patterns to local surface weather: Can changes of near-surface temperature be used to predict changes in circulation-pattern statistics? A re-sampling (RS) scheme is applied, which generates ensembles of future series by assembling segments from past (or traini...
Article
The Yangtze river running through all climatological sub-regions of central China provides a test-bed for a new statistical analogue resampling (STAR) scheme for future regional climate projections. STAR provides a large ensemble of day-to-day time series of single station weather variables at low computational cost. Time series are generated by ma...
Article
Since soil-moisture shows a memory of several months in many regions of the world, understanding feedbacks between soil-moisture and the atmosphere offers the potential for improved predictability of the often highly stochastic atmospheric variables. Feedbacks between soil-moisture or evapotranspiration and atmospheric variables (mostly temperature...
Article
More than most other economic sectors agriculture depends on climatic conditions. This report presents an analysis of possible climate change effects on Eastern Germany's agriculture. It suggests that the risk of Eastern Germany's acreage losing in value is low. Negative regional impacts of climate change could be countered by appropriate adaptatio...
Article
Full-text available
A new statistical method for regional climate simulations is introduced. Its simulations are constrained only by the parameters of a linear regression line for a characteristic climatological variable. Simulated series are generated by resampling from segments of observation series such that the resulting series comply with the prescribed regressio...
Article
This paper is concerned with numerical studies of effective elastic properties of cracked solids. We concentrate on two dimensional media containing different patterns of parallel crack distributions. We use the Rotated Staggered Grid (RSG) which allows one to simulate elastic wave propagation very accurately in fractured media. Our aim is to compa...
Article
Long-term climate registrations are of great importance for climate modelling and prediction. The time series from Jena, where first wheather observations were made in 1770, are therefore of special interest. For this work, the data from Jena covering the years from 1824 to 2000 have been completed and organized in a uniform format as far as possib...
Article
Full-text available
The large range of temporal and spatial scales relevant for climate processes is a major challenge for the design of climate models and also an important concern for climate model validation. In particular, observations are typically point-scale data, while dynamical climate models simulate area averages for the cells of the model grid which compli...

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