Bojan Vrsnak

• Vietnam Institute of Geodesy and Cartography

Context. One of the most widely used space weather forecast models to simulate the propagation of coronal mass ejections (CMEs) is the analytical drag-based model (DBM). It predicts the CME arrival time and speed at Earth or at a specific target (planets, spacecraft) in the Solar System. The corresponding drag-based ensemble model (DBEM) additional...

Coronal mass ejections (CMEs) are complex magnetized plasma structures in which the magnetic field spirals around a central axis, forming what is known as a flux rope (FR). The central FR axis can be oriented at any angle with respect to the ecliptic. Throughout its journey, a CME will encounter interplanetary magnetic fields and solar winds that a...

Coronal mass ejections (CMEs) are complex magnetized plasma structures in which the magnetic field spirals around a central axis, forming what is known as a flux rope (FR). The central FR axis can be oriented at any angle to the ecliptic. Throughout its journey, a CME will encounter interplanetary magnetic field and solar wind which are neither hom...

We investigate the deflection and rotation behaviour of 49 Earth-directed coronal mass ejections (CMEs) spanning the period from 2010 to 2020 aiming to understand the potential influence of coronal holes (CHs) on their trajectories. Our analysis incorporates data from coronagraphic observations captured from multiple vantage points, as well as extr...

Context. Forbush decreases (FDs) are short-term depressions in the galactic cosmic ray (GCR) flux and one of the common signatures of coronal mass ejections (CMEs) in the heliosphere. They often show a two-step profile, the second one associated with the CME’s magnetic structure. This second step can be described by the recently developed analytica...

Context. In the scope of space weather forecasting, it is crucial to be able to more reliably predict the arrival time, speed, and magnetic field configuration of coronal mass ejections (CMEs). From the time a CME is launched, the dominant factor influencing all of the above is the interaction of the interplanetary CME (ICME) with the ambient plasm...

The empirical solar wind forecast (ESWF) model in its current version 2.0 runs as a space-safety service in the frame of ESA’s Heliospheric Weather Expert Service Centre. The ESWF model forecasts the solar-wind speed at Earth with a lead time of 4 days. The algorithm uses an empirical relation found between the area of solar coronal-holes (CHs), as...

We investigated the interaction of a coronal mass ejection (CME) and a coronal hole (CH) in its vicinity using remote-sensing and 1 AU in situ data. We used extreme-ultraviolet images and magnetograms to identify coronal structures and coronagraph images to analyze the early CME propagation. The Wind spacecraft and the Advanced Composition Explorer...

Context. The drag based model (DBM) is frequently used to analyse the kinematics of coronal mass ejections (CMEs) in interplanetary space. The DBM incorporates a 2D solution with the leading edge of the CME. Aims. Certain aspects of the evolution of the CME leading edge in the DBM have not been fully and accurately described previously. The main go...

The empirical solar wind forecast (ESWF) model in its current version 2.0 runs as a space safety service in the frame of ESA’s Heliospheric Weather Expert Service Centre. The ESWF model forecasts the solar wind speed at Earth with a leadtime of 4 days. The algorithm uses an empirical relation found between the area of solar coronal holes (CHs), as...

The configuration of the interplanetary magnetic field and features of the related ambient solar wind in the ecliptic and meridional plane are different. Therefore, one can expect that the orientation of the flux-rope axis of a coronal mass ejection (CME) influences the propagation of the CME itself. However, the determination of the CME orientatio...

Context. The configuration of the interplanetary magnetic field and features of the related ambient solar wind in the ecliptic and meridional plane are different. Therefore, one can expect that the orientation of the flux-rope axis of a coronal mass ejection (CME) influences the propagation of the CME itself. However, the determination of the CME o...

We derive a simple analytical model for the propagation of HSSs from the Sun to Earth and thereby show how the area of coronal holes and the size of their boundary regions affect the HSS velocity, temperature, and density near Earth. We presume that velocity, temperature, and density profiles form across the HSS cross section close to the Sun and t...

Context. Corotating interaction regions (CIRs), formed by the interaction of slow solar wind and fast streams that originate from coronal holes (CHs), produce recurrent Forbush decreases, which are short-term depressions in the galactic cosmic ray (GCR) flux. Aims. Our aim is to prepare a reliable set of CIR measurements to be used as a textbook fo...

We observe and analyse a long-lived corotating interaction region (CIR), originating from a single coronal hole (CH), recurring in 27 consecutive Carrington rotations 2057-2083 in the time period from June 2007 - May 2009. We studied the in situ measurements of this long-lived CIR as well as the corresponding depression in the cosmic ray (CR) count...

On scales of days, the galactic cosmic ray (GCR) flux is affected by coronal mass ejections and corotating interaction regions (CIRs), causing so-called Forbush decreases and recurrent Forbush decreases (RFDs), respectively. We explain the properties and behavior of RFDs recorded at about 1 au that are caused by CIRs generated by solar wind high-sp...

Since the 1970s it has been empirically known that the area of solar coronal holes affects the properties of high-speed solar wind streams (HSSs) at Earth. We derive a simple analytical model for the propagation of HSSs from the Sun to Earth and thereby show how the area of coronal holes and the size of their boundary regions affect the HSS velocit...

This review article summarizes the advancement in the studies of Earth-affecting solar transients in the last decade that encompasses most of solar cycle 24. It is a part of the effort of the International Study of Earth-affecting Solar Transients (ISEST) project, sponsored by the SCOSTEP/VarSITI program (2014–2018). The Sun-Earth is an integrated...

Context. On scales of days, the galactic cosmic ray (GCR) flux is affected by coronal mass ejections and corotating interaction regions (CIRs), causing so-called Forbush decreases and recurrent Forbush decreases (RFDs), respectively. Aims. We explain the properties and behavior of RFDs recorded at about 1 au that are caused by CIRs generated by sol...

Many scientists use coronal hole (CH) detections to infer open magnetic flux. Detection techniques differ in the areas that they assign as open, and may obtain different values for the open magnetic flux. We characterize the uncertainties of these methods, by applying six different detection methods to deduce the area and open flux of a near-disk c...

The Drag-based Model (DBM) is a 2D analytical model for heliospheric propagation of Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) in ecliptic plane predicting the CME arrival time and speed at Earth or any other given target in the solar system. It is based on the equation of motion and depends on initial CME parameters, background solar wind speed, $w$ and the dr...

The Drag-based Model (DBM) is a 2D analytical model for heliospheric propagation of Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) in ecliptic plane predicting the CME arrival time and speed at Earth or any other given target in the solar system. It is based on the equation of motion and depends on initial CME parameters, background solar wind speed, w\documentclas...

Forecasting the arrival time of coronal mass ejections (CMEs) and their associated shocks is one of the key aspects of space weather research. One of the commonly used models is the analytical drag-based model (DBM) for heliospheric propagation of CMEs due to its simplicity and calculation speed. The DBM relies on the observational fact that slow C...

Global EUV waves remain a controversial phenomenon more than 20 yr after their discovery by SOHO/EIT. Although consensus is growing in the community that they are most likely large-amplitude waves or shocks, the wide variety of observations and techniques used to identify and analyze them have led to disagreements regarding their physical propertie...

Forecasting the arrival time of CMEs and their associated shocks is one of the key aspects of space weather research. One of the commonly used models is, due to its simplicity and calculation speed, the analytical drag-based model (DBM) for heliospheric propagation of CMEs. DBM relies on the observational fact that slow CMEs accelerate whereas fast...

Many scientists use coronal hole (CH) detections to infer open magnetic flux. Detection techniques differ in the areas that they assign as open, and may obtain different values for the open magnetic flux. We characterize the uncertainties of these methods, by applying six different detection methods to deduce the area and open flux of a near-disk c...

We determine the three‐dimensional geometry and deprojected mass of 29 well‐observed coronal mass ejections (CMEs) and their interplanetary counterparts (ICMEs) using combined Solar Terrestrial Relations Observatory ‐ Solar and Heliospheric Observatory white‐light data. From the geometry parameters, we calculate the volume of the CME for the magnet...

This review article summarizes the advancement in the studies of Earth-affecting solar transients in the last decade that encompasses most of solar cycle 24. The Sun Earth is an integrated physical system in which the space environment of the Earth sustains continuous influence from mass, magnetic field and radiation energy output of the Sun in var...

We determine the 3D geometry and deprojected mass of 29 well-observed coronal mass ejections (CMEs) and their interplanetary counterparts (ICMEs) using combined STEREO-SOHO white-light data. From the geometry parameters we calculate the volume of the CME for the magnetic ejecta (flux-rope type geometry) and sheath structure (shell-like geometry res...

A sample of isolated Earth-impacting ICMEs that occurred in the period January 2008 to August 2014 is analysed in order to study in detail the ICME in situ signatures with respect to the type of filament eruption related to the corresponding CME. For Earth-directed CMEs, a kinematical study was performed using the STEREO-A, B COR1 and COR2 coronagr...

One of the very common in situ signatures of interplanetary coronal mass ejections (ICMEs), as well as other interplanetary transients, are Forbush decreases (FDs), i.e. short-term reductions in the galactic cosmic ray (GCR) flux. A two-step FD is often regarded as a textbook example, which presumably owes its specific morphology to the fact that t...

Solar flares and coronal mass ejections (CMEs) are closely coupled through magnetic reconnection. CMEs are usually accelerated impulsively within the low solar corona, synchronized with the impulsive flare energy release. We investigate the dynamic evolution of a fast CME and its associated X2.8 flare occurring on 2013 May 13. The CME experiences t...

A sample of isolated Earth-impacting interplanetary coronal mass ejections (ICMEs) that occurred in the period January 2008 to August 2014 is analyzed to study in detail the ICME in situ signatures, with respect to the type of filament eruption related to the corresponding CME. Observations from different vantage points provided by the Solar and He...

Solar flares and coronal mass ejections (CMEs) are closely coupled through magnetic reconnection. CMEs are usually accelerated impulsively within the low solar corona, synchronized with the impulsive flare energy release. We investigate the dynamic evolution of a fast CME and its associated X2.8 flare occurring on 2013 May 13. The CME experiences t...

One of the very common in situ signatures of interplanetary coronal mass ejections (ICMEs), as well as other interplanetary transients, are Forbush decreases (FDs), i.e. short-term reductions in the galactic cosmic ray (GCR) flux. A two-step FD is often regarded as a textbook example, which presumably owes its specific morphology to the fact that t...

We performed 2.5D magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) simulations showing the propagation of fast-mode MHD waves of different initial amplitudes and their interaction with a coronal hole (CH), using our newly developed numerical code. We find that this interaction results in, first, the formation of reflected, traversing and transmitted waves (collectively,...

We used our newly developed magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) code to perform 2.5D simulations of a fast-mode MHD wave interacting with coronal holes (CH) of varying Alfv\'en speed which result from assuming different CH densities. We find that this interaction leads to effects like reflection, transmission, stationary fronts at the CH boundary and the for...

We developed a new numerical code that is able to perform 2.5D simulations of a magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) wave propagation in the corona, and its interaction with a low density region, such as a coronal hole (CH). We show that the impact of the wave on the CH leads to different effects, such as reflection and transmission of the incoming wave, stat...

We present an analytical diffusion-expansion Forbush decrease (FD) model ForbMod, which is based on the widely used approach of an initially empty, closed magnetic structure (i.e., flux rope) that fills up slowly with particles by perpendicular diffusion. The model is restricted to explaining only the depression caused by the magnetic structure of...

We performed 2.5D magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) simulations showing the propagation of fast-mode MHD waves of different initial amplitudes and their interaction with a coronal hole (CH), using our newly developed numerical code. We find that this interaction results in, first, the formation of reflected, traversing, and transmitted waves (collectively,...

We present an analytical diffusion-expansion Forbush decrease (FD) model ForbMod which is based on the widely used approach of the initially empty, closed magnetic structure (i.e. flux rope) which fills up slowly with particles by perpendicular diffusion. The model is restricted to explain only the depression caused by the magnetic structure of the...

We study the properties of 115 coronal holes in the time-range from 2010/08 to 2017/03, the peak velocities of the corresponding high-speed streams as measured in the ecliptic at 1 AU, and the corresponding changes of the Kp index as marker of their geo-effectiveness. We find that the peak velocities of high-speed streams depend strongly on both th...

We used our newly developed magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) code to perform 2.5D simulations of a fast-mode MHD wave interacting with coronal holes (CHs) of varying Alfvén speed that result from assuming different CH densities. We find that this interaction leads to effects like reflection, transmission, stationary fronts at the CH boundary, and the form...

Studies of the relationship between solar radio bursts and CMEs are essential for understanding of the nature of type II bursts. In this study, we examine the type II solar radio burst recorded on 16 March 2016 by the Learmonth radio spectrograph and compare its characteristics with the kinematics of the associated CMEs observed by STEREO and SOHO...

We study the properties of 115 coronal holes in the time range from August 2010 to March 2017, the peak velocities of the corresponding high-speed streams as measured in the ecliptic at 1 AU, and the corresponding changes of the Kp index as marker of their geoeffectiveness. We find that the peak velocities of high-speed streams depend strongly on b...

Coronal mass ejections (CMEs) were discovered in the early 1970s when space-borne coronagraphs revealed that eruptions of plasma are ejected from the Sun. Today, it is known that the Sun produces eruptive flares, filament eruptions, coronal mass ejections and failed eruptions; all thought to be due to a release of energy stored in the coronal magne...

The drag-based model (DBM) for heliospheric propagation of coronal mass ejections (CMEs) is a widely used analytical model which can predict CME arrival time and speed at a given heliospheric location. It is based on the assumption that the propagation of CMEs in interplanetary space is solely under the influence of magnetohydrodynamical drag, wher...

The drag-based model (DBM) for heliospheric propagation of coronal mass ejections (CMEs) is a widely used analytical model which can predict CME arrival time and speed at a given heliospheric location. It is based on the assumption that the propagation of CMEs in interplanetary space is solely under the influence of magnetohydrodynamical drag, wher...

Coronal mass ejections (CMEs) were discovered in the early 1970s when space-borne coronagraphs revealed that eruptions of plasma are ejected from the Sun. Today, it is known that the Sun produces eruptive flares, filament eruptions, coronal mass ejections and failed eruptions; all thought to be due to a release of energy stored in the coronal magne...

The propagation of 15 interplanetary coronal mass ejections (ICMEs) from Earth's orbit (1 AU) to Mars (~ 1.5 AU) has been studied with their propagation speed estimated from both measurements and simulations. The enhancement of magnetic fields related to ICMEs and their shock fronts cause the so-called Forbush decrease, which can be de- tected as a...

The propagation of 15 interplanetary coronal mass ejections (ICMEs) from Earth's orbit (1 AU) to Mars (~ 1.5 AU) has been studied with their propagation speed estimated from both measurements and simulations. The enhancement of magnetic fields related to ICMEs and their shock fronts cause the so-called Forbush decrease, which can be de- tected as a...

We have developed a new numerical code that is able to perform 2.5D simulations of a magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) wave propagation in the corona, and its interaction with a low-density region, such as a coronal hole (CH). We show that the impact of the wave on the CH leads to different effects, such as reflection and transmission of the incoming wave,...

As observed in Thomson-scattered white light, coronal mass ejections (CMEs) are manifest as large-scale expulsions of plasma magnetically driven from the corona in the most energetic eruptions from the Sun. It remains a tantalizing mystery as to how these erupting magnetic fields evolve to form the complex structures we observe in the solar wind at...

We present an analysis of the geoeffectiveness of corotating interaction regions (CIRs), employing the data recorded from 25 January to 5 May 2005 and throughout 2008. These two intervals in the declining phase of Solar Cycle 23 are characterised by a particularly low number of interplanetary coronal mass ejections (ICMEs). We study in detail how f...

Statistical relationship between major flares and the associated CMEs during rising phases of Solar Cycles 23 and 24 are studied. Totally more than 6000 and 10,000 CMEs were observed by SOHO/LASCO (Solar and Heliospheric Observatory/Large Angle Spectrometric Coronagraph) during 23rd [May 1996-June 2002] and 24th [December 2008-December 2014] solar...

Under the European Union 7th Framework Programme (EU FP7) project Coronal Mass Ejections and Solar Energetic Particles (COMESEP, http://comesep.aeronomy.be), an automated space weather alert system has been developed to forecast solar energetic particles (SEP) and coronal mass ejection (CME) risk levels at Earth. The COMESEP alert system uses the a...

We perform a statistical analysis on 157 M-class soft X-ray flares observed during 1997 – 2014 with and without deca-hectometric (DH) type II radio bursts aiming at the reasons for the non-occurrence of DH type II bursts in certain events. All the selected events are associated with halo Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) detected by the Solar and Helio...

We investigate the statistics of 288 low-latitude coronal holes extracted from SDO/AIA-193 filtergrams over the time range 2011/01/01 to 2013/12/31. We analyse the distribution of characteristic coronal hole properties, such as the areas, mean AIA-193 intensities, and mean magnetic field densities, the local distribution of the SDO/AIA-193 intensit...

We investigate the statistics of 288 low-latitude coronal holes extracted from SDO/AIA-193 filtergrams over the time range 2011/01/01 to 2013/12/31. We analyse the distribution of characteristic coronal hole properties, such as the areas, mean AIA-193 intensities, and mean magnetic field densities, the local distribution of the SDO/AIA-193 intensit...

For almost 20 years the physical nature of globally propagating waves in the solar corona (commonly called "EIT waves") has been controversial and subject to debate. Additional theories have been proposed over the years to explain observations that did not fit with the originally proposed fast-mode wave interpretation. However, the incompatibility...

For almost 20 years the physical nature of globally propagating waves in the solar corona (commonly called "EIT waves") has been controversial and subject to debate. Additional theories have been proposed over the years to explain observations that did not fit with the originally proposed fast-mode wave interpretation. However, the incompatibility...

Coronal mass ejections (CMEs), caused by large-scale eruptions of the coronal magnetic field, often are accompanied by a more localized energy release in the form of flares, as a result of dissipative magnetic-field reconfiguration. Morphology and evolution of such flares, also denoted as dynamical flares are often explained as a consequence of rec...

The largest geomagnetic storm so far in the solar cycle 24 was produced by a fast coronal mass ejection (CME) originating on 2015 March 15. It was an initially west-oriented CME and expected to only cause a weak geomagnetic disturbance. Why did this CME finally cause such a large geomagnetic storm? We try to find some clues by investigating its pro...

An analysis of historical Sun–Earth connection events in the context of the most extreme space weather events of the last \(\sim150\) years is presented. To identify the key factors leading to these extreme events, a sample of the most important geomagnetic storms was selected based mainly on the well-known aa index and on geomagnetic parameters de...

We present the first large statistical study of extreme geomagnetic storms based on historical data from the time period 1868 – 2010. This article is the first of two companion papers. Here we describe how the storms were selected and focus on their near-Earth characteristics. The second article presents our investigation of the corresponding solar...

We employ remote observations of coronal mass ejections (CMEs) and the associated solar flares to forecast the CME-related Forbush decreases, i.e., short-term depressions in the galactic cosmic-ray flux. The relationship between the Forbush effect at the Earth and remote observations of CMEs and associated solar flares is studied via a statistical...

An in-depth analysis of numerical simulations is performed to obtain a deeper insight into the nature of various phenomena occurring in the solar atmosphere as a consequence of the eruption of unstable coronal structures. Although the simulations take into account only the most basic characteristics of a flux-rope eruption, the simulation analysis...

It is well known that solar wind drag is an important parameter for propagation of CMEs in the interplanetary space. In the present work, we utilize the Drag Based Model (DBM) developed recently by Vršnak et al., (2013) to obtain the travel time of CMEs from the Sun to the Earth and speed of interplanetary CME (ICME) near the Earth using the initia...

Predicting transit times (TT) of coronal mass ejections (CMEs) from their initial parameters is a very important subject, not only from the scientific perspective, but also because CMEs represent a hazard for human technology. We used a neural network (NN) to analyse TT for 153 events with only two input parameters: initial velocity of the CME, v,...

We perform a statistical analysis on 157 M-class soft X-ray flares observed during 1997 – 2014 with and without deca-hectometric (DH) type II radio bursts aiming at the reasons for the non-occurrence of DH type II bursts in certain events. All the selected events are associated with halo Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) detected by the Solar and Helio...

The so-called drag-based model (DBM) simulates analytically the propagation of coronal mass ejections (CMEs) in interplanetary space and allows the prediction of their arrival times and impact speeds at any point in the heliosphere ("target"). The DBM is based on the assumption that beyond a distance of about 20 solar radii from the Sun, the domina...

Eruptions, flares, and coronal mass ejection (CMEs) are due to physical phenomena mainly driven by an initially force-free current-carrying magnetic field. We review some key observations relevant to the current theoretical trigger mechanisms of the eruption and to the energy release via reconnection. Sigmoids observed in X-rays and UV, as well as...

The severe geomagnetic effects of solar storms or coronal mass ejections (CMEs) are to a large degree determined by their propagation direction with respect to Earth. There is a lack of understanding of the processes that determine their non-radial propagation. Here we present a synthesis of data from seven different space missions of a fast CME, w...

We report a detailed analysis of an interaction between two coronal mass ejections (CMEs) that were observed on 14 – 15 February 2011 and the corresponding radio enhancement, which was similar to the “CME cannibalism” reported by Gopalswamy et al. (Astrophys. J. 548, L91, 2001). A primary CME, with a mean field-of-view velocity of 669 km s−1 in the...

The main objective of the study is to determine the probability distributions of the geomagnetic Dst index as a function of the coronal mass ejection (CME) and solar flare parameters for the purpose of establishing a probabilistic forecast tool for the geomagnetic storm intensity. Several CME and flare parameters as well as the effect of successive...

We present a statistical analysis of 60 strong large-scale EUV wave events that occurred during January 2007 to February 2011 with the STEREO twin spacecraft regarding their kinematical evolution and wave pulse characteristics. For the start velocity, we obtain for the arithmetic mean $312\pm115$ km s$^{-1}$ (within a range of 100$-$630 km s$^{-1}$...

Real-time forecasting of the arrival of coronal mass ejections (CMEs) at Earth, based on remote solar observations, is one of the central issues of space-weather research. In this paper, we compare arrival-time predictions calculated applying the numerical "WSA-ENLIL+Cone model" and the analytical "drag-based model" (DBM). Both models use coronagra...

We present an analysis of the fast coronal mass ejection (CME) of 2012 March 7, which was imaged by both STEREO spacecraft and observed in situ by MESSENGER, Venus Express, Wind, and Mars Express. Based on detected arrivals at four different positions in interplanetary space, it was possible to strongly constrain the kinematics and the shape of the...

Forecasting the in situ properties of coronal mass ejections (CMEs) from remote images is expected to strongly enhance predictions of space weather, and is of general interest for studying the interaction of CMEs with planetary environments. We study the feasibility of using a single heliospheric imager (HI) instrument, imaging the solar wind densi...

We study a filament eruption, two-ribbon flare, and coronal mass ejection (CME) that occurred in NOAA Active Region 10898 on 6 July 2006. The filament was located South of a strong sunspot that dominated the region. In the evolution leading up to the eruption, and for some time after it, a counter-clockwise rotation of the sunspot of about 30 degre...

Context. A detailed comparison of the geomagnetic responses to interplanetary coronal mass ejection (ICMEs) and corotating interaction regions (CIRs) during solar cycle 23 was performed using geomagnetic indices Dst, Ap, and AE. Aims. We aim to find out if there are relative differences in the response of various magnetospheric current systems to t...

We study heliospheric propagation and some space weather aspects of three Earth-directed interplanetary coronal mass ejections (ICMEs), successively launched from the active region AR 11158 in the period 13 – 15 February 2011. From the analysis of the ICME kinematics, morphological evolution, and in situ observations, we infer that the three ICMEs...

The type II solar radio burst recorded on 13 June 2010 by the Hiraiso Solar Observatory Radio Spectrograph was employed to estimate the magnetic-field strength in the solar corona. The burst was characterized by a well-pronounced band splitting, which we used to estimate the density jump at the shock and Alfvén Mach number using the Rankine–Hugonio...

The speed [v(R)] of coronal mass ejections (CMEs) at various distances from the Sun is modeled (as proposed by Vršnak and Gopalswamy in J. Geophys. Res. 107, 2002, doi: 10.1029/2001/JA000120 ) by using the equation of motion a drag=γ(v−w) and its quadratic form a drag=γ(v−w)|v−w|, where v and w are the speeds of the CME and solar wind, respectively...