Bill Hare

Bill Hare
Climate Analytics | CLIMATEANALYTICS

32.22
 · 
B.Sc. (Hons). Physics and Environmental Science

About

91
Publications
25,480
Reads
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7,953
Citations
Research Experience
December 2008 - June 2020
Climate Analytics
Position
  • Director
January 2001 - present
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research
Position
  • Visiting Scientist
July 1992 - November 2008
Greenpeace International
Position
  • Climate Policy Director

Publications

Publications (91)
Article
Full-text available
Current global mitigation ambition up to 2030 under the Paris Agreement, reflected in the National Determined Contributions (NDCs), is insufficient to achieve the agreement's 1.5 ∘C long-term temperature limit. As governments are preparing new and updated NDCs for 2020, the question as to how much collective improvement is achieved is a pivotal one...
Article
Full-text available
To achieve the Paris Agreement’s long-term temperature goal, current energy systems must be transformed. Australia represents an interesting case for energy system transformation modeling: with a power system dominated by fossil fuels and, specifically, with a heavy coal component, there is at the same time a vast potential for expansion and use of...
Article
Climate change is projected to detrimentally affect African countries’ economic development, while income inequalities across economies is among the highest on the planet. However, it is projected that income levels would converge on the continent. Hitherto there is limited evidence on how climate change could affect projected income convergence, a...
Article
Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) submitted so far under the Paris Agreement are not in line with its long-term temperature goal. To bridge this gap, countries are required to provide regular updates and enhancements of their long-term targets and strategies, based on scientific assessments. The goal of this paper is to demonstrate a polic...
Article
Full-text available
Current global mitigation ambition as under the Paris Agreement as reflected in the National Determined Contributions (NDCs) up to 2030 is insufficient to achieve the Agreement's 1.5 °C long term temperature limit. As governments are preparing new and updated NDCs for 2020, the question as to how much collective improvement is achieved is a pivotal...
Article
Differentiating the impacts of climate change between 1.5°C and 2°C requires a regional and sector-specific perspective. Whereas for some regions and sectors the difference in climate variables might be indistinguishable from natural variability, other areas especially in the tropics and subtropics will experience significant shifts. In addition to...
Article
Full-text available
In the Paris Agreement countries have agreed to act together to hold global warming well below 2°C over preindustrial levels and to pursue efforts to limit warming to 1.5°C. To assess if the world is on track to meet this long‐term temperature goal, countries' pledged emissions reductions (Nationally Determined Contributions, NDCs) need to be analy...
Technical Report
This report looks at the implications of exploiting Canning Basin and other unconventional gas resources for achieving climate targets. These resources are vast and the analysis shows that the domestic carbon pollution from the full exploitation of all of Western Australia’s gas resources would be 4.4 times higher that what Australia’s entire energ...
Article
This article identifies and quantifies the 10 most important benchmarks for climate action to be taken by 2020–2025 to keep the window open for a 1.5°C-consistent GHG emission pathway. We conducted a comprehensive review of existing emissions scenarios, scanned all sectors and the respective necessary transitions, and distilled the most important s...
Article
The adoption of the 1.5°C long-term warming limit in the Paris Agreement made 1.5°C a "hot topic" in the scientific community, with researchers eager to address this issue. Long-term warming limits have a decade-long history in international policy. To effectively inform the climate policy debate, geoscience research hence needs a core understandin...
Chapter
Island states are especially at risk of climate impacts and are already feeling the effects of rising sea levels, acidification, climate extremes and other impacts. Small islands face several unique challenges: They usually have limited resources to react, but are exceptionally exposed due to their physical setting and limited livelihood options. I...
Article
Full-text available
The Paris Agreement sets a long-term temperature goal of holding the global average temperature increase to well below 2 °C, and pursuing efforts to limit this to 1.5 °C above pre-industrial levels. Here, we present an overview of science and policy aspects related to this goal and analyse the implications for mitigation pathways. We show examples...
Article
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Robust appraisals of climate impacts at different levels of global-mean temperature increase are vital to guide assessments of dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system. The 2015 Paris Agreement includes a two-headed temperature goal: "holding the increase in the global average temperature to well below 2 °C above pre-industrial...
Article
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The repercussions of climate change will be felt in various ways throughout both natural and human systems in Sub-Saharan Africa. Climate change projections for this region point to a warming trend, particularly in the inland subtropics; frequent occurrence of extreme heat events; increasing aridity; and changes in rainfall---with a particularly pr...
Article
Full-text available
Robust appraisals of climate impacts at different levels of global-mean temperature increase are vital to guide assessments of dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system. Currently, two such levels are discussed in the context of the international climate negotiations as long-term global temperature goals: a below 2 °C and a 1.5 °...
Article
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Recently, assessments have robustly linked stabilization of global-mean temperature rise to the necessity of limiting the total amount of emitted carbon-dioxide (CO2). Halting global warming thus requires virtually zero annual CO2 emissions at some point. Policymakers have now incorporated this concept in the negotiating text for a new global clima...
Article
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FULL PAPER OPEN ACCESS: http://www.pnas.org/content/early/2014/10/29/1415631111.full.pdf+html Anthropogenic global warming is driven by emissions of a wide variety of radiative forcers ranging from very short-lived climate forcers (SLCFs), like black carbon, to very long-lived, like CO2. These species are often released from common sources and are...
Technical Report
Full-text available
Next decade critical to keep warming below 2°C or 1.5°C • The UNFCCC climate talks in June 2014 are aimed at increasing emissions reduction actions in the pre-2020 period, as well as substantially improving mitigation ambition for the post 2020 period in the new climate agreement to be concluded next year. • In order to prevent dangerous climate ch...
Technical Report
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Available for download at http://www.umweltbundesamt.de/publikationen/squaring-the-circle-of-mitigation-adequacy-equity The Ad Hoc Working Group on the Durban Platform for Enhanced Action (ADP) aims to "develop a protocol, another legal instrument or an agreed outcome with legal force under the Convention applicable to all Parties", ready for ado...
Article
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With currently implemented government policies, greenhouse gas emissions are projected to lead to a warming of 3.7˚C, about 0.6˚C higher than that under the Copenhagen pledges. Under present policies there is about a one in three chance of exceeding 4˚C by 2100. • Since the Warsaw COP began, the announcement by Japan effectively enlarged the 2020 e...
Article
Full-text available
This paper attempts to associate different levels of global mean surface temperature increase and/or sea level rise with specific impacts and risks for species, ecosystems, agriculture, water and socio-economic damages compared to pre-industrial global mean temperature. It is found that that the risks arising from projected human induced climate ch...
Conference Paper
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National action on climate change mitigation appears to be joining the international climate negotiations in the new and ever popular "climate shuffle" dance. It involves maximum effort and motion while staying in the same spot…or even, in some cases, going backwards. Recent emissions trends and estimates of the effects of those policies in place a...
Book
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This report focuses on the risks of climate change to development in Sub-Saharan Africa, South East Asia and South Asia. Building on the 2012 report, Turn Down the Heat: Why a 4°C Warmer World Must be Avoided, this new scientific analysis examines the likely impacts of present day, 2°C and 4°C warming on agricultural production, water resources, an...
Article
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This report provides a snapshot of recent scientific literature and new analyses of likely impacts and risks that would be associated with a 4° Celsius warming within this century. It is a rigorous attempt to outline a range of risks, focusing on developing countries and especially the poor. A 4°C world would be one of unprecedented heat waves, sev...
Article
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Given the expected and already observed impacts of climate change there is growing agreement that global mean temperature rise should be limited to below 2 or 1.5 degrees. The translation of such a temperature target into guidelines for global emission reduction over the coming decades has become one of the most important and urgent tasks. In fact,...
Article
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Sea-level rise (SLR) is a critical and uncertain climate change risk, involving timescales of centuries1. Here we use a semi-empirical model, calibrated with sea-level data of the past millennium2, to estimate the SLR implications of holding warming below 2 °C or 1.5 °C above pre-industrial temperature, as mentioned in the Cancún Agreements3. Limit...
Book
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Without further and accelerated action it appears very likely that global greenhouse-gas (GHG) emissions levels in 2020 will be far above those that are consistent with agreed international warming goals. This gap between where emissions are headed and where they need to be exists due to the inadequacy of current mitigation pledges, which, if fully...
Article
Full-text available
In recent years, international climate policy has increasingly focused on limiting temperature rise, as opposed to achieving greenhouse-gas-concentration- related objectives. The agreements reached at the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change conference in Cancun in 2010 recognize that countries should take urgent action to limit th...
Article
Full-text available
Aggregations of greenhouse gas mitigation pledges by countries are frequently used to indicate whether resulting global emissions in 2020 will be 'on track' to limit global temperature increase to below specific warming levels such as 1.5 or 2 °C. We find that historical emission levels aggregated from data that are officially reported by countries...
Article
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Defining and operationalizing Article 2 of the UNFCCC remains a challenge. The question of what is dangerous climate change is not a purely scientific one, as danger necessarily has a subjective dimension and its definition requires judgment and precaution. The papers in this special issue of Regional Environmental Change attempt to navigate this p...
Article
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The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) assessment of major risks for African agriculture and food security caused by climate change during coming decades is confirmed by a review of more recent climate change impact assessments (14 quantitative, six qualitative). Projected impacts relative to current production levels range from -100%...
Chapter
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This chapter identifies future emission pathways that are consistent with a 2° C or 1.5° C temperature limit. Many scenarios and pathways for annual global emissions of greenhouse gases have been published in the scientific literature to explore possible long-term trends in climate change. This literature has been used in this report to understand...
Chapter
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Chapter 4 builds upon the previous two chapters by examining a possible ‘emissions gap’ in 2020 between emission levels consistent with temperature limits and expected emissions resulting from the pledges. It then goes on to explore policy options for narrowing the size of the gap. This Chapter shows that, in the majority of cases, there is a gap...
Chapter
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Chapter 5 goes a step further by reporting on possible long-term temperature changes following from current pledges. There is also widespread interest in the implications of 2020 pledges for long-term temperature change. Because future temperature increase is highly dependent upon cumulative emissions after 2020, it is not possible to link unambi...
Article
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This analysis of the Copenhagen Accord evaluates emission reduction pledges by individual countries against the Accord's climate-related objectives. Probabilistic estimates of the climatic consequences for a set of resulting multi-gas scenarios over the 21st century are calculated with a reduced complexity climate model, yielding global temperature...
Article
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Globally business as usual emissions for 2020 of 57 GtCO 2 e are projected. To have a good chance at limiting warming to 2°C or 1.5°C, 2020 emissions would need to be below 44 and 40 GtCO 2 e respectively. Hence the Copenhagen Climate Deal needs reductions of around 13-17 GtCO 2 e by 2020. The lowest ambition commitments by developed countries and...
Article
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Nations will probably meet only the lower ends of their emissions pledges in the absence of a binding international agreement Nations can bank an estimated 12 gigatonnes of Co2 equivalents surplus allowances for use after 2012 Land-use rules are likely to result in further allowance increases of 0.5 GtCO2-eq per year Global emissions in 2020 could...
Article
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This article argues that a legally binding, multilateral agreement is a necessary condition for achieving the highest levels of greenhouse gas (GHG) emission reductions consistent with limiting warming to below either 2 degrees C or below 1.5 degrees C. Clear legally binding commitments within a multilaterally agreed process with strong legal and i...
Article
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More than 100 countries have adopted a global warming limit of 2 degrees C or below (relative to pre-industrial levels) as a guiding principle for mitigation efforts to reduce climate change risks, impacts and damages. However, the greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions corresponding to a specified maximum warming are poorly known owing to uncertainties in...
Article
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Article 2 of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change [United Nations (1992) http://unfccc.int/resource/docs/convkp/conveng.pdf. Accessed February 9, 2009] commits signatory nations to stabilizing greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere at a level that "would prevent dangerous anthropogenic interference (DAI) with the clima...
Chapter
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Our climate system is in trouble. It has warmed by over 0.7 degrees Celsius in the last 100 years. Most of the warming since at least the mid-twentieth century is very likely due to human activities. Warming's impacts on human and natural systems are now being observed nearly everywhere—perhaps most obviously in the recent loss of Arctic sea ice, w...
Article
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One approach in climate-change policy is to set normative long-term targets first and then infer the implied emissions pathways. An important example of a normative target is to limit the global-mean temperature change to a certain maximum. In general, reported cost estimates for limiting global warming often rise rapidly, even exponentially, as th...
Article
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This article was submitted without an abstract, please refer to the full-text PDF file.
Chapter
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Article
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The world’s manufacturing warehouse, China, is set for a period of growth whichbrings about the biggest transformation of human well-being the earth has everseen. The growth is fuelled by new coal power plants in China, two a week. Asif that weren’t enough: the biggest coal plants of their kind are currently built ina country where climate protecti...
Conference Paper
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The proposed range of new scenarios for analysis of emissions, climate change, impacts and response strategies ranges from a stabilization level of around 3W/m2 (~500 ppmv CO2 equivalence - CO2e) up to around 8.5 W/m2 (~1360ppm CO2e). This range, however, neither characterizes the full range of published emission scenarios, nor the full forcing ran...
Article
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This report summarizes the findings resulting from the fourth session of the IMAGE Advisory Board. IMAGE version 2.4 is MNP's current model to assess the global environment. The recommendations and suggestions of the Advisory Board relate to (improvements in) the IMAGE model version 2.4, to the development of strategies for future research and deve...
Article
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So far, climate change mitigation pathways focus mostly on CO2 and a limited number of climate targets. Comprehensive studies of emission implications have been hindered by the absence of a flexible method to generate multi-gas emissions pathways, user-definable in shape and the climate target. The presented method ‘Equal Quantile Walk’ (EQW) is in...
Article
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This paper examines different concepts of a ‘warming commitment’ which is often used in various ways to describe or imply that a certain level of warming is irrevocably committed to over time frames such as the next 50 to 100 years, or longer. We review and quantify four different concepts, namely (1) a ‘constant emission warming commitment’, (2) a...
Chapter
Full-text available
This paper attempts to associate different levels of global mean surface temperature increase since pre-industrial and/or sea level rise with specific impacts and risks for species, ecosystems, agriculture, water and socio-economic damages. It is found that that the risks arising from projected human-induced climate change increase significantly an...
Article
Full-text available
ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS: We thank Vadim Chirkov and Erik Slentoe for their assistance in preparing this response.