Bethan V. Purse

UK Centre for Ecology & Hydrology | CEH · UK Centre for Ecology and Hydrology Wallingford

Culicoides biting midges (Diptera: Ceratopogonidae) are the main vectors of livestock diseases such as bluetongue (BT) which mainly affect sheep and cattle. In Spain, bluetongue virus (BTV) is transmitted by several Culicoides taxa, including Culicoides imicola, Obsoletus complex, Culicoides newsteadi and Culicoides pulicaris that vary in seasonali...

Forest-based communities manage many risks to health and socio-economic welfare including the increasing threat of emerging zoonoses that are expected to disproportionately affect poor and marginalised groups, and further impair their precarious livelihoods, particularly in Low-and-Middle Income (LMIC) settings. Yet, there is a relative dearth of e...

Unlabelled: The role of invasive alien species in the transmission dynamics of zoonotic pathogens is often overlooked, despite the rapid escalation in biological invasions globally. Here we synthesise available information on the influence of invasive alien species on zoonotic pathogen dynamics in invaded ranges, focussing on Europe, and identify...

The risk of spillover of zoonotic diseases to humans is changing in response to multiple environmental and societal drivers, particularly in tropical regions where the burden of neglected zoonotic diseases is highest and land use change and forest conversion is occurring most rapidly. In these regions, neglected zoonotic diseases can have significa...

There is increased global and national attention on the need for effective strategies to control zoonotic diseases. Quick, effective action is, however, hampered by poor evidence-bases and limited coordination between stakeholders from relevant sectors such as public and animal health, wildlife and forestry sectors at different scales, who may not...

The multidisciplinary ‘Phyto-threats’ project was initiated in 2016 to address the increasing risks to UK forest and woodland ecosystems from trade-disseminated Phytophthora. A major component of this project was to examine the risk of Phytophthora spread through nursery and trade practices. Close to 4000 water and root samples were collected from...

Predicting complex species-environment interactions is crucial for guiding conservation and mitigation strategies in a dynamically changing world. Phenotypic plasticity is a mechanism of trait variation that determines how individuals and populations adapt to changing and novel environments. For individuals, the effects of phenotypic plasticity can...

COVID-19 is a defining moment for strengthening drought resilience of society and managing ecosystems more sustainably. Both recent and historical experiences indicate that disease outbreaks very often follow extreme weather events. Drought, combined with other ecosystem changes such as habitat degradation, preceded the COVID-19 outbreak and has be...

Background There is a strong policy impetus for the One Health cross-sectoral approach to address the complex challenge of zoonotic diseases, particularly in low/lower middle income countries (LMICs). Yet the implementation of this approach in LMIC contexts such as India has proven challenging, due partly to the relatively limited practical guidanc...

Translocating plants to natural habitats is a long-standing conservation practice but is growing in magnitude to deliver international targets to mitigate climate change and reverse biodiversity loss. Concurrently, outbreaks of novel plant pests and pathogens are multiplying with increased global trade network connectivity and larger volumes of imp...

Vector-borne diseases (VBDs), such as dengue, Zika, West Nile virus (WNV) and tick-borne encephalitis, account for substantial human morbidity worldwide and have expanded their range into temperate regions in recent decades. Climate change has been proposed as a likely driver of past and future expansion, however, the complex ecology of host and ve...

Zoonoses disproportionately affect tropical communities and are associated with human modification and use of ecosystems. Effective management is hampered by poor ecological understanding of disease transmission and often focuses on human vaccination or treatment. Better ecological understanding of multi-vector and multi-host transmission, social a...

Smallholder farmer and tribal communities are often characterised as marginalised and highly vulnerable to emerging zoonotic diseases due to their relatively poor access to healthcare, worse-off health outcomes, proximity to sources of disease risks, and their social and livelihood organisation. Yet, access to relevant and timely disease informatio...

1. Plant pathogens are introduced to new geographic regions ever more frequently as global connectivity increases. Predicting the threat they pose to plant health can be difficult without in-depth knowledge of behaviour, distribution and spread. Here, we evaluate the potential for using biological traits and phylogeny to predict global threats from...

The oomycete plant pathogen, Phytophthora austrocedri, is an aggressive killer of cypress trees causing severe mortality of Chilean cedar (Austrocedrus chilensis) in Argentina since the 1940 s and now of common juniper (Juniperus communis s.l.) in the UK. Rapid mortality of key UK juniper populations was first observed in the early 2000 s. The caus...

Background: Smallholder farmer and tribal communities are often characterised as marginalised and highly vulnerable to emerging zoonotic diseases due to their relatively poor access to healthcare, worse-off health outcomes, proximity to sources of disease risks, and their social and livelihood organisation. Yet, access to relevant and timely diseas...

Background: Culicoides obsoletus is an abundant and widely distributed Holarctic biting midge species, involved in the transmission of bluetongue virus (BTV) and Schmallenberg virus (SBV) to wild and domestic ruminants. Females of this vector species are often reported jointly with two morphologically very close species, C. scoticus and C. montanus...

Bluetongue is a viral disease affecting wild and domestic ruminants transmitted by several species of biting midges Culicoides Latreille. The phenology of these insects were analyzed in relation to potential environmental drivers. Data from 329 sites in Spain were analyzed using Bayesian Generalized Linear Mixed Model (GLMM) approaches. The effects...

Background Zoonotic diseases disproportionately affect poor tropical communities. Transmission dynamics of zoonoses are complex, involving communities of vector and animal hosts, with human behaviour and ecosystem use altering exposure to infected vectors and hosts. This complexity means that efforts to manage and prevent human spillover are often...

Zoonotic diseases affect resource-poor tropical communities disproportionately, and are linked to human use and modification of ecosystems. Disentangling the socio-ecological mechanisms by which ecosystem change precipitates impacts of pathogens is critical for predicting disease risk and designing effective intervention strategies. Despite the glo...

Wetlands provide multiple services to human societies. Despite policies dedicated to their protection, current European policies do not address the need to balance mosquito management approaches to mitigate dis‐services to human health and well‐being while ensuring that wetland conservation goals are met. Herein, we outline criteria for considerati...

BACKGROUND: Debates over whether climate change could lead to the amplification of Lyme disease (LD) risk in the future have received much attention. Although recent large-scale disease mapping studies project an overall increase in Lyme disease risk as the climate warms, such conclusions are based on climate-driven models in which other drivers of...

Surveillance of adult Culicoides biting midge flight activity is used as an applied ecological method to guide the management of arbovirus incursions on livestock production in Europe and Australia. To date the impact of changes in the phenology of adult vector activity on arbovirus transmission has not been defined. We investigated this at two sit...

Culicoides-borne arboviruses of livestock impair animal health, livestock production and livelihoods worldwide. As these arboviruses are multi-host, multi-vector systems, predictions to improve targeting of disease control measures require frameworks that quantify the relative impacts of multiple abiotic and biotic factors on disease patterns. We d...

Background: Many mosquito-borne diseases exhibit substantial seasonality, due to strong links between environmental variables and vector and pathogen life-cycles. Further, a range of density-dependent and density-independent biotic and abiotic processes affect the phenology of mosquito populations, with potentially large knock-on effects for vector...

The enormous global burden of vector-borne diseases disproportionately affects poor people in tropical, developing countries. Changes in vector-borne disease impacts are often linked to human modification of ecosystems as well as climate change. For tropical ecosystems, the health impacts of future environmental and developmental policy depend on h...

Predicted future extent of leishmaniasis under alternative climate pathways and socio-economic pathways. (DOCX)

Trajectory of changes in climate and land use under alternative future socio-economic pathways, climate change pathways and policies. (DOCX)

Predicted distributions of leishmaniases when mammal richness is included or excluded from models. (DOCX)

Impact of correcting for recording bias on models of leishmaniasis distribution. (DOCX)

Environmental predictors of leishmaniasis distribution. (DOCX)

According to the Convention on Biological Diversity, by 2020 invasive alien species (IAS) should be identified and their impacts assessed, so that species can be prioritized for implementation of appropriate control strategies and measures put in place to manage invasion pathways. For one quarter of the IAS listed as the “100 of the world's worst”...

Aim: Although global trade is implicated in biological invasions, the assumption that trade networks explain the large-scale distributions of non-native species remains largely untested. We addressed this by analysing relationships between global trade networks and plant pest invasion. Location: Forty-eight countries in Europe and the Mediterranean...

Background Understanding seasonal patterns of abundance of insect vectors is important for optimisation of control strategies of vector-borne diseases. Environmental drivers such as temperature, humidity and photoperiod influence vector abundance, but it is not generally known how these drivers combine to affect seasonal population dynamics. Method...

Europe has seen frequent outbreaks of Bluetongue (BT) disease since 2006, including an outbreak of BT virus serotype 8 in central France during 2015 that has continued to spread in Europe during 2016. Thus, assessing the potential for BTv-8 spread and determining the optimal deployment of vaccination is critical for contingency planning. We develop...

In this report we summarise work on resilience points in tropical forests at regional and site scales in Latin America. In section 1, we review the issue of tipping points and explore the likelihood of climate change-induced or land-use change induced critical change in the neotropical forest ecosystems, based on current literature and recent resul...

Background Culicoides spp. biting midges transmit bluetongue virus (BTV), the aetiological agent of bluetongue (BT), an economically important disease of ruminants. In southern India, hyperendemic outbreaks of BT exert high cost to subsistence farmers in the region, impacting on sheep production. Effective Culicoides spp. monitoring methods coupled...

1. Varroa destructor Linnaeus (Acari: Varroidae) is one of the greatest threats to apiculture. This study examines the role of host density, natural resource availability for bees, the management and climate in driving spatial and annual variability in the abundance of Varroa, and the occurrence of colony losses, recorded in apiaries across a Medit...

Species distribution modelling (SDM) is widely used in ecology and predictions of species distributions inform both policy and ecological debates. Therefore methods with high predictive accuracy and those that enable biological interpretation are preferable. Gaussian processes (GPs) are a highly flexible approach to statistical modelling and have r...

Mosquito-borne diseases cause substantial mortality and morbidity worldwide. These impacts are widely predicted to increase as temperatures warm and extreme precipitation events become more frequent, since mosquito biology and disease ecology are strongly linked to environmental conditions. However, direct evidence linking environmental change to c...

Collection and analysis of Orthoptera records in Britain p.12 (scientific abstract) in: First European Congress on Orthoptera Conservation 14.

Andalusia (Southern Spain) is considered one of the main routes of introduction of bluetongue virus (BTV) into Europe, evidenced by a devastating epidemic caused by BTV-1 in 2007. Understanding the pattern and the drivers of BTV-1 spread in Andalusia is critical for effective detection and control of future epidemics. A long-standing metric for qua...

Parameter estimates and model fitting statistics (AICc and model weights) for all models within 3 AICc units of the best-fitting model. (DOCX)

Detailed description of the calculations of the date of infection and the date of onset of infectiousness of the affected farms. (TIF)

Assignment of CORINE landcover classes to the three categories describing the cost of movement by vectors over different landscapes. (DOCX)

Steps in the calculation of the case reproduction ratio (Rt): 1- Determination of the date of infection and the date of onset of infectiousness of the affected farms, 2- Development of the epidemic trees, 3- Calculation of the number of farms infected by each of the farms affected throughout the epidemic, and 4- Calculation of the case-reproduction...

Summary of all predictors used in the mixed-effects model. Information includes the parameters used, their units and the sources of data. (DOCX)

In this report we summarise work on resilience points in tropical forests at regional and site scales in Latin America. In section 1, we review the issue of tipping points and explore the likelihood of climate change-induced or land-use change induced critical change in the neotropical forest ecosystems, based on current literature and recent resul...

A wealth of information has been generated by the ROBIN project to assess how understanding of the trade-offs between biodiversity, ecosystem services and human well-being under current and future scenarios can be used to inform the design of REDD+ policies. We were able to show how the approach used here can be used to better design payments towar...

This paper presents some key findings from the EU-FP7 funded projects AMAZALERT and ROBIN (Role of Biodiversity in the Climate Change Mitigation), both focusing on the effects of future climate change and land use change on ecosystem services provided by tropical forests in Latin America. New research has demonstrated that a complete dieback of the...

Complex trade-offs between biodiversity, ecosystem services and human well being are in the process of being addressed at different spatial scales and using a range of methodologies. At the local scale, the drivers underpinning trade-offs, current trends and alternatives towards sustainability were assessed. For the case of the southern coast of J...

Spatial variation in the risk of many mosquito-borne pathogens is strongly influenced by the distribution of communities of suitable vector mosquitoes. The spatial distributions of such communities have been linked to the abiotic habitat requirements of each constituent mosquito species, but the biotic interactions between mosquitoes and other spec...

This paper presents some key findings from the EU-FP7 funded projects AMAZALERT and ROBIN (Role of Biodiversity in the Climate Change Mitigation), both focusing on the effects of future climate change and land use change on ecosystem services provided by tropical forests in Latin America. New research has demonstrated that a complete dieback of the...

This paper presents some key endings from the EU-FP7 funded projects AMAZALERT and ROBIN (Role of Biodiversity in the Climate Change Mitigation), both focusing on the effects of future climate change and land use change on ecosystem services provided by tropical forests in Latin America. New research has demonstrated that a complete dieback of the...

Species distribution modelling is widely used in epidemiology for mapping spatial patterns and the risk of introduction of diseases and vectors and also for predicting how exposure may alter given future environmental change, motivated by the high societal impact and the multiple environmental drivers of disease outbreaks. Although pathogens and ve...