Bert Saveyn

European Commission | ec · Joint Research Centre (JRC)

The third installment of the ‘European Public Investment Outlook’ series is an important and timely publication that draws together recent analyses to recommend significant increases in public investment in green ventures. Compelling data from key economists affiliated with international organizations like the International Monetary Fund, European...

p>This paper examines the way trade and other economic interactions between countries are modelled in the construction of baseline projections with recursive dynamic computable general equilibrium (CGE) models. Simulations are conducted on the size of trade elasticities, the way the trade balance is modelled (macroeconomic closure), trade growth, a...

There are increasing numbers of published articles in the field of input–output analysis and modelling that use the GTAP input–output database; particularly, in relation to the estimation of carbon, energy and water footprints and the analysis of global value chains and international trade. The policy relevance of those topics is also increasing, t...

In the context of digitalisation and decarbonisation, the transport sector may undergo radical transformations in the decades to come. Four key trends hold a significant disruptive potential: Automation, Connectivity, Electrification and Sharing (ACES). In the next decades, these trends could trigger substantial shifts in vehicle stock, ownership a...

Economic models with global and economy-wide coverage can be useful tools to assess the impact of energy and environmental policies, but often disregard finer technological details of emission abatement measures. We present a framework for integrating and preserving detailed bottom-up information for end-of-pipe abatement technologies into a large-...

Many countries are formulating a long-term climate strategy to be submitted to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change by 2020. Model-based, multi-disciplinary assessments can be a key ingredient for informing policy makers and engaging stakeholders in this process.

Local air quality co-benefits can provide complementary support for ambitious climate action and can enable progress on related Sustainable Development Goals. Here we show that the transformation of the energy system implied by the emission reduction pledges brought forward in the context of the Paris Agreement on climate change (Nationally Determi...

The Paris Agreement—which is aimed at holding global warming well below 2 °C while pursuing efforts to limit it below 1.5 °C—has initiated a bottom-up process of iteratively updating nationally determined contributions to reach these long-term goals. Achieving these goals implies a tight limit on cumulative net CO2 emissions, of which residual CO2...

A Cooperative, Connected and Automated Mobility (CCAM) is expected to have an overall positive impact on our economy and society. It is anticipated that sectors like automotive, electronics and software or freight transport will be positively affected while other sectors like insurance or maintenance and repair will face significant challenges. Imp...

From a price range between 100 and 120 USD (U.S. dollars) per barrel in 2011–2014, the crude oil price fell from mid-2014 onwards, reaching a level of 26 USD per barrel in January 2016. Here we assess the economic consequences of this strong decrease in the oil price. A retrospective analysis based on data of the past 25 years sheds light on the vu...

The Paris Agreement is a milestone in international climate policy as it establishes a global mitigation framework towards 2030 and sets the ground for a potential 1.5 °C climate stabilization. To provide useful insights for the 2018 UNFCCC Talanoa facilitative dialogue, we use eight state-of-the-art climate-energy-economy models to assess the effe...

This study shows that achieving the climate change mitigation target of staying below 2°C temperature rise is possible technically – thanks to an acceleration of decarbonisation trends, an increased electrification of final demand and large changes in the primary energy mix that include a phase out of coal and a reduction of oil and gas – and is co...

Global Energy and Climate Outlook 2017: How climate policies improve air quality - Global energy trends and ancillary benefits of the Paris Agreement This study shows that achieving the climate change mitigation target of staying below 2°C temperature rise is possible technically – thanks to an acceleration of decarbonisation trends, an increased e...

The United Nations-led international climate change negotiations in Paris in December 2015 (COP21) trigger and enhance climate action across the globe. This paper presents a model-based assessment of the Paris Agreement. In particular, we assess the mitigation policies implied by the Intended Nationally Determined Contributions (INDCs) put forward...

The report describes the importance of oil for oil exporting countries and analyses the potential economic effects that current low oil prices may have in their economy and political stability. Firstly, the report describes the main drivers that have led to the present low oil prices. Secondly, descriptive statistics are employed to show the exposu...

This paper assesses the macroeconomic and sectoral impacts of the "Clean Air Policy Package" proposed by the European Commission in December 2013. The analysis incorporates both the expenditures necessary to implement the policy by 2030 and the resulting positive feedback effects on human health and crop production. A decomposition analysis identif...

Governments worldwide have agreed that international climate policy should aim to limit the increase of global mean temperature to less than 2oC with respect to pre-industrial levels. The purpose of this paper is to analyse the emission reductions and related energy system changes in various countries in pathways consistent with the 2oC target. We...

The report describes the importance of oil for the EU economy and analyses the potential economic effects that current low oil prices since mid-2014 may have in the EU28 economy. Further it assesses how the current oil price decrease may evolve up to 2020 and the consequences for global oil consumption. The analysis shows that a decrease of the oil...

The objective of the JRC PESETA II project is to gain insights into the sectoral and regional patterns of climate change impacts in Europe by the end of this century. The study uses a large set of climate model runs and impact categories (ten impacts: agriculture, energy, river floods, droughts, forest fires, transport infrastructure, coasts, touri...

The objective of the JRC PESETA II project is to gain insights into the sectoral and regional patterns of climate change impacts in Europe by the end of this century. The study uses a large set of climate model runs and impact categories (ten impacts: agriculture, energy, river floods, droughts, forest fires, transport infrastructure, coasts, touri...

The JRC PESETA II study integrates the consequences of several separate climate change impacts into a macroeconomic CGE model. This enables comparison of the different impacts based on common metrics (household welfare and economic activity). The study uses a large set of climate model runs (twelve) and impact categories (agriculture, energy demand...

The JRC PESETA II study integrates the consequences of several separate climate change impacts into a macroeconomic CGE model. This enables comparison of the different impacts based on common metrics (household welfare and economic activity). The study uses a large set of climate model runs (twelve) and impact categories (agriculture, energy demand...

The distribution of the mitigation burden across countries is a key issue regarding the post-2012 global climate policies. This article explores the economic implications of alternative allocation rules, an assessment made in the run-up to the COP15 in Copenhagen (December 2009). We analyse the comparability of the allocations across countries base...

One key objective of tax‐based fiscal consolidations which is too often disregarded in public debate is to minimise economic distortions. This paper uses a computable general equilibrium model to gauge these potential distortions by calculating the marginal cost of public funds (MCF) for EU member states. We consider two specific tax categories whi...

This article studies the economic implications that different global GHG emission mitigation policies may have in the major Asian economies, namely, China, India, and Japan. The analysis covers the period 2010–2050 and is performed by means of a recursive dynamic computable general equilibrium model (GEM-E3). Four scenarios are investigated: the th...

The European Union has committed itself to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions by 20% in 2020 compared with 1990 levels. This paper investigates whether this policy has an additional benefit in terms of economic resilience by protecting the EU from the macroeconomic consequences due to an oil price rise.We use the GEM-E3 computable general equili...

The paper highlights that the race-to-top result shown by Wellisch (J. Urban Econ. 37:290–310, 1995) and Kunce and Shogren (J. Environ. Econ. Manage. 50:212–224, 2005a) may be exacerbated by inter-jurisdictional commuting, leading to increased NIMBY behavior (Not-In-My-Back-Yard) among metropolitan jurisdictions. Local governments try to push pollu...

This paper assesses the impacts of reducing the EU's greenhouse gas emissions by 30% in 2020 taking into account international negotiations. We find that the economic crisis lowered the direct costs to achieve the EU's targets to 0.32% of GDP;30 to 50% lower than previous estimates. A 30% internal reduction would cost €46 billion (0.3% of GDP) in 2...

This article uses the world GEM-E3 computable general equilibrium model to assess the economic consequences of the climate ‘Copenhagen Accord’. The model allows analyzing the macroeconomic costs in terms of GDP, the change in employment, as well as the impacts on production of specific energy-intensive sectors. Various 2020 climate scenarios are ev...

This article was submitted without an abstract, please refer to the full-text PDF file.

This article was submitted without an abstract, please refer to the full-text PDF file.

This article was submitted without an abstract, please refer to the full-text PDF file.

This article was submitted without an abstract, please refer to the full-text PDF file.

This report documents the JRC/IPTS modelling activities of the 2009 European Commission Communication "Towards a comprehensive climate change agreement in Copenhagen", which establishes the EU's position in the Copenhagen negotiations. According to the POLES model, the estimated global direct abatement costs of an emission reduction scenario compat...

The paper is a general equilibrium analysis of an energy-tax reform in a federation, measuring the welfare effects and the vertical tax externalities. Vertical tax externalities may arise when two government levels impose taxes on common tax bases. We show how the magnitude and sign of the vertical externality depend on the environmental goal, the...

The study aims at providing an overview of the energy research capacities in EU Member States. It is composed of a quantitative analysis of funding for energy research from the public and private sectors on the one hand and an assessment of the institutional capacity in energy research policy making and implementation on the other. The assessment p...

EuskaraArtikulu honek primen sistemari (feed-in tariffs) eta egiaztagiri berdeen merkataritzako eskemari buruzko eztabaida eskaintzen digu; izan ere, bi aukera horiek dira argindar berriztagarria sortzeko politika sustatzeko tresnarik ezagunenak. Bi eskema horiek erkatu egiten dira, zalantzazko egoeretan zer nolako eragina daukaten ikusteko, merkat...

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There is substantial evidence that hazardous and solid waste facilities are located disproportionately in communities of color. While there are many potential explanations, one contributing factor might be that policy makers treat waste facilities differently, depending on the racial makeup of the facilities’ host communities. On a larger scale, po...

This paper considers a metropolitan area where residents can commute between several jurisdictions. These residents show NIMBY behavior (Not-In-My-Backyard). They try to preserve their living quality by pushing their polluting economic activity to the neighboring jurisdictions, while keeping their labor income as commuters. This induces a race-to-t...

This paper studies the income effects of environmental policy in jurisdictions with a common labor market and a heterogeneous population (workers and polluters). A jurisdiction unilaterally improves its local environmental quality, using a subsidy, an environmental tax or command-and-control. In a closed economy, workers and polluters have some kin...

This paper considers a metropolitan area where residents can commute between several jurisdictions. These residents show NIMBY behavior (Not-In-My-Backyard). They try to preserve their living quality by pushing their polluting economic activity to the neighboring jurisdictions, while keeping their labor income as commuters. This induces a race-to-t...

In this paper we develop a methodology to select a combination of forest sites that maximizes net social benefits taking into account restrictions on the total surface/size of new forest land. We use GIS technology to estimate for each site the major cost and benefit elements including lost agricultural output, timber and hunting values, carbon seq...

This paper looks at the optimal location of new forests in a suburban region under area constraints. The methodology takes into account use benefits, non-use benefits (both bequest and existence values), opportunity costs of converting agricultural land, as well as planting and management costs of the new forest. The recreational benefits of new fo...

The paper studies a regional environmental tax reform in a federal state. A region unilaterally improves the environmental quality by increasing its energy taxes. The regional government recycles the excess tax revenues by lowering either pre-existing distorting labor or capital taxes. This regional tax reform causes a vertical tax externality in t...

This paper looks at the optimal location of new forests in a suburban region under area constraints. The GIS-based methodology takes into account use benefits such as timber, hunting, carbon sequestration and recreation, non-use benefits (both bequest and existence values), opportunity costs of converting agricultural land, as well as planting and...

The paper studies a regional environmental tax reform in a federal state. In a model with immobile labour, mobile capital and mobile polluting input in the production function, one region increases its pollution taxes and recycles the excess tax revenues by lowering either pre-existing distorting labour or capital taxes. This choice determines whet...

This paper analyses the instrument choice of special interest groups for suburban environmental policy in a metropolitan area, consisting of a suburb and a business centre. In our theoretical model, we show that when special interest groups set suburban policy, the specific nature of their endowments determines their instrument preferences. The deg...