Bernardo Lanza Queiroz

Bernardo Lanza Queiroz
Federal University of Minas Gerais | UFMG · Centro de Desenvolvimento e Planejamento Regional (CEDEPLAR)

Ph.D. Demography (University of California)

About

169
Publications
31,960
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1,358
Citations
Citations since 2017
88 Research Items
1014 Citations
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Introduction
I hold a Ph.D. in Demography from the University of California at Berkeley (2005). I specialize in economic demography, population aging, and mortality and health. I also have strong interests in demographic methods, indirect techniques, and regional and urban economics. Currently, my research is centered on studying retirement behavior and old age support systems in developing countries. I am also working on building a mortality database for Latin America (www.lamortalidad.org). Personal website: https://docentes.face.ufmg.br/lanza/ Open Science Home: https://osf.io/angsj/
Additional affiliations
September 2006 - present
Federal University of Minas Gerais
Position
  • Professor (Associate)
Education
August 2001 - December 2005
University of California, Berkeley
Field of study
  • Demography

Publications

Publications (169)
Article
In this paper we investigate labour force participation and retirement patterns of couples in Brazil using data from the Brazilian Household Survey from 2003 and 2008. Brazil is an interesting case study because of its rapid population aging, large public pension system and early retirement trends. More specifically, we examine how social security...
Article
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Latin American countries are undergoing major changes in their mortality profiles due to unique epidemiological and health transitions in the region. The main goal of this paper is to study the evolution of the mortality age profiles and the distribution of age at death for a series of Latin America countries in order to identify the effects of mor...
Article
To counter the problems of demographic ageing, Latin American countries, like many nations elsewhere, are considering raising the retirement age in order to maintain fiscal balance and sustain economic prosperity. In doing so, however, they must take into account not only the simultaneous decline in older adults’ labour force participation but also...
Article
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We provide an analysis of the main sources of data used to estimate fertility schedules in developing countries, giving special attention to Brazil. In addition to the brief history of various data sources, we present several indirect demographic methods, commonly used to estimate fertility and assess the quality of data. From the methods used, the...
Article
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Objetivo: Avaliar a qualidade do registro de óbitos do Datasus, por sexo e estados brasileiros, e estimar as probabilidades de morte adulta, 45q15, por sexo e estados, entre 1980 e 2010. Métodos: O estudo foi baseado em dados de mortalidade obtidos no Sistema de Informação de Mortalidade do Datasus, de 1980 a 2010, e em dados de população dos cens...
Preprint
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In this paper, we propose a mixture-based model for mortality modeling above age 70. The proposed model is compared with 4 other widely used models: the Beard, Gompertz, Makeham, and Perks models. Our model captures well the mortality rate's behavior at all ages. We applied the method to a country with high-quality data, Japan, and one with lower d...
Article
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This paper aims to estimate mortality and analyze its differentials by sex, age, and groups of beneficiaries of the Brazilian National Institute of Social Security (INSS) in 2015 and make comparisons with official estimates for the general population, assessing the distribution of deaths by age and of survival after 65 years old. The results reinfo...
Article
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This paper aims to estimate mortality and analyze its differentials by sex, age, and groups of beneficiaries of the Brazilian National Institute of Social Security (INSS) in 2015 and make comparisons with official estimates for the general population, assessing the distribution of deaths by age and of survival after 65 years old. The results reinfo...
Article
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Objective: To compare the death counts from three sources of information on mortality available in Brazil in 2010, the Mortality Information System (SIM - Sistema de Informações sobre Mortalidade ), Civil Registration Statistic System (RC - Sistema de Estatísticas de Resgistro Civil ), and the 2010 Demographic Census at various geographical levels...
Preprint
Background: Small area age- and sex-specific mortality rates are useful measures for population projections, health, economic, and social planning. Mortality rate estimation in small areas can be difficult due the low number of events/exposure. If a country’s mortality registration has problems, such as incomplete information, then estimating morta...
Article
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Background: Cardiovascular disease (CVD) is one of the most serious health issues and the leading cause of death worldwide in both developed and developing countries. The risk factors for CVD include demographic, socioeconomic , behavioral, environmental, and physiological factors. However, the spatial distribution of these risk factors, as well as...
Article
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In this study, we use ternary color-coding to visualize and compare the age structure of deaths from COVID-19 in Brazilian meso-regions using the tricolore package in R, in two different phases of the pandemic. The analysis of the age profile is important to better understand the dynamics of the pandemic, and how it has affected the population over...
Article
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Urbanization and economic development in developed countries fostered the debate of rural vs. urban health and mortality differentials. Low and middle-income countries experience uneven urbanization processes that result in an urban mortality penalty. Brazil is an example of this scenario of rural mortality advantage, despite the limited access to...
Book
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This encyclopedia brings together a comprehensive collection of work highlighting established research and emerging science in all relevant disciplines in gerontology and population aging. It covers the breadth of the field, gives readers access to all major sub-fields, and illustrates their interconnectedness with other disciplines. With more than...
Article
In this paper, we measure the effect of the 2020 COVID-19 pandemic wave at the national and subnational levels in selected Latin American countries that were most affected: Brazil, Chile, Ecuador, Guatemala, Mexico, and Peru. We used publicly available monthly mortality data to measure the impacts of the pandemic using excess mortality for each cou...
Article
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Para determinar el nivel y las diferencias de mortalidad entre los departamentos de Argentina entre 2009 y 2011, aplicamos y comparamos estimaciones de esperanza de vida al nacer en la región pampeana. Usamos tres métodos de suavizado: un enfoque bayesiano, un método de tablas de vida relacional y un enfoque indirecto de los niveles de mortalidad,...
Article
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Multidimensional discussion about transition to adulthood is an incipient theme in Latin America. This paper seeks to describe and characterize the process of change in the transition of men and women in the region between the 1960s and 2010's. Using census data from IPUMS-International for 15 Latin American countries, we calculate the mean ages at...
Preprint
Para estimativas de mortalidade consistentes e confiáveis é essencial um sistema de informação de boa qualidade e que registre de forma satisfatória os óbitos que efetivamente acontecem. Nesse sentido, este trabalho teve por objetivo comparar a contagem de óbitos registrados pelas três fontes de informação de mortalidade disponíveis no Brasil em 20...
Article
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Background: What is the spatial pattern of mortality by cause and sex in Brazil? Even considering the main causes of death, such as neoplasms, cardiovascular diseases, external causes, respiratory diseases, and infectious diseases, there are still important debate regarding the spatial pattern of mortality by causes in Brazil. Evidence shows that t...
Preprint
This paper investigates the existence of peer effects in academic outcomes by exploringspecificities in the student's admission process of a Brazilian federal university, which works as a naturalexperiment. Individuals who are comparable in terms of previous academic achievement end up havingclassmates with better or worse performance in college be...
Article
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Objective To determine cause-specific and age-specific contributions to life expectancy changes between 2000 and 2015, separately by state and sex in Brazil, with a focus on homicides. Design Retrospective cross-sectional demographic analysis of mortality. Setting and population Brazilian population by age, sex and state from 2000 to 2015. Main...
Article
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As of mid-August 2020, Brazil was the country with the second-highest number of cases and deaths by the COVID-19 pandemic, but with large regional and social differences. In this study, using data from the Brazilian Ministry of Health, we analyze the spatial patterns of infection and mortality from Covid-19 across small areas of Brazil. We apply sp...
Article
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The number of COVID-19 infections is key for accurately monitoring the pandemics. However, due to differential testing policies, asymptomatic individuals and limited large-scale testing availability, it is challenging to detect all cases. Seroprevalence studies aim to address this gap by retrospectively assessing the number of infections, but they...
Chapter
Background The efficient planning of public health policies requires, in advance, adequate knowledge of mortality levels. Additionally, it is desirable to have a good knowledge of patterns and age structure of death causes by geographical areas. In recent years, several studies have sought to obtain adequate mortality estimates for small areas in B...
Article
Full-text available
To determine the variations and spatial patterns of adult mortality across regions, over time, and by sex for 137 small areas in Brazil, we first apply TOPALS to estimate and smooth mortality rates and then use death distribution methods to evaluate the quality of the mortality data. Lastly, we employ spatial autocorrelation statistics and cluster...
Article
Population aging and recent trends in labor force participation rates are creating a considerable impact on public pension programs around the world. Brazil combines a sizeable public pension program, rapid population aging, and a decline in the labor force of the elderly, imposing additional costs to the sustainability of the pension programs. In...
Article
Full-text available
Background: Estimates of completeness of death registration are crucial to produce estimates of life tables and population projections and to estimate the burden of disease. They are an important step in assessing the quality of data. In the case of subnational data analysis in Brazil, it is important to consider spatial and temporal variation in...
Preprint
As at mid August, 2020, Brazil is the second most affected country by the COVID-19 pandemic, with large regional and social differences. In this study, using data from Brazilian Ministry of Health, we analyze the spatial patterns of infection and mortality from Covid-19 across small areas in Brazil. We apply spatial autoregressive Bayesian models a...
Preprint
Full-text available
In this study, we introduce a ternary colour coding to visualize and compare the age structure of deaths by COVID-19 (until 06/30/2020) in Brazilian small-areas using the tricolore package in R. The analysis of age profile is important to better understand the dynamics of the pandemic and how it affects the population according to age groups (0-19,...
Preprint
Full-text available
BACKGROUND The covid-19 pandemic has considerably affected the mortality numbers of many countries in the world, and Latin America is now the epicenter of the diseases. There is a great demand on analyzing the impact of this new disease in the amount of deaths, but available information of deaths by cause is still lacking in most of the countries i...
Preprint
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In low income and lower-middle income countries, data from civil registration systems do not allow monitoring excess mortality during the COVID-19 pandemic. Rapid mobile phone surveys aimed at measuring mortality trends on a monthly basis are a realistic and safe option for filling that data gap. The data generated by mobile phone surveys can play...
Preprint
Full-text available
In this work, we assess the global impact of COVID-19 showing how demographic factors, testing policies and herd immunity are key for saving lives. We extend a standard epidemiological SEIR model in order to: (a) identify the role of demographics (population size and population age distribution) on COVID-19 fatality rates; (b) quantify the maximum...
Article
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In this paper, we use a bivariate choropleth map to investigate the relationship between mortality from cardiovascular disease (CVD) and gross domestic product (GDP) per capita, by sex, in Japanese prefectures from 1996 to 2015. The overall results show a decline in age-standardized CVD mortality rates in all prefectures, for both men and women, an...
Article
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Resumo A análise da distribuição da mortalidade de motociclistas nos municípios brasileiros é fundamental para o entender e tentar minimizar a ocorrência deste crescente fenômeno. O principal objetivo do presente trabalho é analisar a distribuição espacial das taxas de mortalidade de ocupantes de motocicletas nos municípios brasileiros, a partir de...
Article
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Objective. To investigate the adult mortality profile from eight causes of death in 10 Latin American countries (Argentina, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Costa Rica, Ecuador, Mexico, Paraguay, Peru, and Uruguay) from 2000 to 2016. Methods. The cause of death effect in adult mortality was calculated as the hypothetical gain in the average number of years...
Article
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Indigenous peoples worldwide are highly disadvantaged compared to national baseline populations. Given historical challenges to accessing relevant data for Brazil, the present study innovates by using 2010 Brazilian National Demographic Census data to estimate mortality curves in Indigenous children and adolescents <20 years. The non-parametric smo...
Article
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Objetivo: O objetivo deste artigo é analisar a distribuição espacial da mortalidade feminina por acidente de motocicleta nos municípios brasileiros entre 2005 e 2015, bem como a variação das taxas no mesmo período. Métodos: Estimaram-se as taxas de mortalidade femininas para os anos de 2005, 2010 e 2015 considerando-se a média móvel de três anos a...
Article
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Suriname statistical office assumes that mortality data in the country is of good quality and does not perform any test before producing life table estimates. However, lack of data quality is a concern in the less developed areas of the world. The primary objective of this article is to evaluate the quality of death counts registration in the count...
Article
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Background: Cardiovascular disease (CVD) is one of the most serious health issues and the leading cause of death in Brazil, accounting for 30Š of all deaths. Previous research shows that CVD mortality rates are not uniformly distributed across Brazil and have been changing over time. There is also previous evidence from other countries that economi...
Preprint
A importância da estimação de taxas específicas de migração por idade e sexo pode ser comparada àquela das Taxas Específicas de Fecundidade e de Mortalidade. O objetivo do capítulo é de ilustrar como essas taxas são estimadas para migração através de diferentes modelos, assim como discutir sua utilidade para analisar o nível e padrão da migração. C...
Preprint
Full-text available
Estimates of completeness of death registration are crucial to produce estimates of life tables, population projections and to the global burden of diseases study. They are an imperative step in quality of data analysis. In the case of state level data in Brazil, it is important to consider spatial and temporal variation in the quality of mortality...
Conference Paper
Full-text available
Background The efficient planning of public health policies requires, in advance, adequate knowledge of mortality levels. Also, it is important to have patterns and age structure of causes of death by geographical areas. In recent years, several studies have sought to obtain adequate mortality estimates for small areas in Brazil (Queiroz, et.al, 20...
Article
Full-text available
Following the publication of this article [1], the authors reported a typesetting error in Table 1 that caused the columns of the table to be ordered incorrectly, and a typographical error in a sentence in the Conclusions section.
Article
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Cardiovascular disease (CVD) is one of the most serious health issues and the leading cause of death worldwide in both developed and developing countries, including Brazil. However, CVD mortality rates are not uniformly distributed across the country. Brazil is marked by important regional differences resulting from socioeconomic inequality and lim...
Article
Full-text available
Background Mortality registries are an essential data source for public health surveillance and for planning and evaluating public policy. Nevertheless, there are still large inequalities in the completeness and quality of mortality registries between and within countries. In Ecuador, there have been few nationwide evaluations of the mortality regi...
Article
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A violência urbana no Brasil tem assumido proporções elevadas nos últimos anos. Somente em 2014, quase 60 mil pessoas foram vítimas de homicídios no Brasil, posicionando o país entre os mais violentos do mundo. O objetivo deste texto é apresentar os resultados da avaliação da implementação do Programa Fica Vivo! na cidade de Belo Horizonte, ao long...
Preprint
Brazil experienced population ageing and improvement in educational attainment between 1980–2010. Proportion of workers in the formal economic sector increased between 2000–2010. Earnings decreased from 1980 to 1991 and increased in 2000. However, earnings in the formal economic sector decreased again in 2010. We estimate associations of individual...
Preprint
In this paper, we investigate the length of retirement in a less developed economy with large public pension program, Brazil. We analyze the evolution of labor force participation and retirement since 1979 and estimate the expected length of retirement from 1979 to 2098 for both males and females. We use a stochastic model (Lee-Carter) to forecast...
Article
Full-text available
RESUMO Este artigo teve como objetivo analisar a distribuição espacial das equipes de Atenção Básica em Saúde (ABS) avaliadas pelo Programa Nacional de Melhoria do Acesso e Qualidade da Atenção Básica (PMAQ-AB) segundo as categorias de desempenho para certificação no Programa. Realizou-se uma caracterização da distribuição espacial dos municípios m...
Article
Full-text available
Cardiovascular disease (CVD) is one of the most serious health issues and the leading cause of death worldwide, causing 30% of deaths in Brazil alone in recent years. However, CVD mortality rates are not uniformly distributed across the country. Brazil is marked by important regional differences resulting from socioeconomic inequality and limited a...
Preprint
Full-text available
In this paper, we study study spatial and temporal adult mortality trends in small areas of Brazil, from 1980 to 2010, and its relation to socioeconomic and public health developments. Brazil is marked by huge regional and social inequality and it is important to understand how it could be related to trends and differences in adult mortality. There...
Article
Full-text available
Cardiovascular disease (CVD) is one of the most serious health issues and the leading cause of death worldwide, causing 30% of deaths in Brazil alone in recent years. However, CVD mortality rates are not uniformly distributed across the country. Brazil is marked by important regional differences resulting from socioeconomic inequality and limited a...
Preprint
Full-text available
This paper examines mortality differentials in Brazil and states between 1980 and 2010, using the Brazilian Ministry of Health Database. We use Modal age at death and measures of mortality compression to analyze regional and gender differences overtime and across regions. We estimate age-specific mortality rates by single ages using two approaches:...
Preprint
O Estado de Minas Gerais é uma das regiões mais heterogêneas do país. Coexistem no Estado regiões dinâmicas, modernas e com indicadores sócio-econômicos de alto nível e localidades menos desenvolvidas, estagnadas que oferecem uma condição de vida mais precária para a sua população. De um lado, tem-se a região Centro-Sul e o Triângulo Mineiro, áreas...
Preprint
Despite the growing evidence on the socioeconomic health differentials in developed countries, less attention has been paid to life expectancy inequalities between social groups in developing countries largely due to poor quality of death records. This study presents the first estimates of the adult mortality gap across income quantiles by sex in B...
Conference Paper
Full-text available
As national populations age, a central policy recommendation for many years have been to raise labor force participation among older individuals, thereby mitigating some of the effects of population aging on public expenditures. However, in spite of intentions, life expectancy increase in many ageing economies has in recent decades been accompanied...
Preprint
Dentro del combo de sugerencias de las Naciones Unidas para los censos de población, se encuentran aquellas propuestas que remiten a la inclusión de la dimensión de mortalidad, tanto infantil como también adulta. El objetivo de esta comunicación es ampliar los argumentos, tanto a favor como en contra, de estos puntos de vista, mostrar la experienci...
Article
Full-text available
Background Reliable data on cause of death (COD) are fundamental for planning and resource allocation priorities. We used GBD 2015 estimates to examine levels and trends for the leading causes of death in Brazil from 1990 to 2015. Methods We describe the main analytical approaches focused on both overall and specific causes of death for Brazil and...