Bernardo Alves Furtado

Bernardo Alves Furtado
Instituto de Pesquisa Econômica Aplicada - IPEA · Diretoria de Estudos e Políticas Setoriais de Inovação, Regulação e Infraestrutura

PhD
Modeling public policies with agent-based models. Urban economics. Housing. Spatial Analysis.

About

124
Publications
45,642
Reads
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360
Citations
Citations since 2016
66 Research Items
284 Citations
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Introduction
Tenured researcher @ government think-tank and CNPq (productivity grant - since 2014), complex modeler interested, data fan, transitional Python user, PhD. Background in urban analysis, economics, geography. From twitter.com/furtadobb Personal site: https://sites.google.com/view/bernardo-alves-furtado
Additional affiliations
June 2015 - present
Instituto de Pesquisa Econômica Aplicada - IPEA
Position
  • Coordinator
March 2013 - June 2015
Instituto de Pesquisa Econômica Aplicada - IPEA
Position
  • Managing Director
June 2011 - March 2013
Instituto de Pesquisa Econômica Aplicada - IPEA
Position
  • Urban Studies Coordinator
Education
May 2008 - July 2009
Utrecht University
Field of study
  • Geosciences
January 2005 - July 2009
Federal University of Minas Gerais
Field of study
  • Economics
February 2000 - June 2003

Publications

Publications (124)
Article
Full-text available
The objective of this paper is to review the classical authors who jointly contributed to establish the founding principles of a ‘science of complexity’. Based on the original writings of those authors, the text discusses the central ideas of complex systems: (a) the interaction between heterogeneous agents and the environment, (b) emergence and se...
Book
Full-text available
Complex Systems can be defined in a broad manner and embrace concepts from different fields of science, from physics to biology, to computing and social sci-ences. Mainly, the definition includes nonlinear dynamical systems that contain large number of interactions among the parts. These systems learn, evolve, and adapt, generating emergent non-det...
Article
Full-text available
The range of application of methodologies of complexity science, interdisciplinary by nature, has spread even more broadly across disciplines after the dawn of this century. Specifically, applications to public policy and corporate strategies have proliferated in tandem. This paper reviews the most used complex systems methodologies with an emphasi...
Article
Full-text available
Policymakers' role in decision making on alternative policies is facing restricted budgets and an uncertain future. The need to decide on priorities and handle effects across policies has made their task even more difficult. For instance, housing policies involve heterogeneous characteristics of the properties themselves and the intricacy of housin...
Preprint
Full-text available
Public Policies are not intrinsically positive or negative. Rather, policies provide varying levels of effects across different recipients. Methodologically, computational modeling enables the application of a combination of multiple influences on empirical data, thus allowing for heterogeneous response to policies. We use a random forest machine l...
Chapter
Full-text available
This chapter describes, justifies, presents the pros and cons of and illustrates the use of simulation modeling as a handy, cost-effective and agile tool for policymakers. Simulation modeling is flexible enough to accommodate different levels of detail, precision and time frameworks. It also serves the purpose of a concrete communication platform t...
Book
Full-text available
This book describes the evolution of PolicySpace2, a computer simulation and platform of public policy evaluation. The text brings details of the underlying methodology – agent-based modeling (ABM) – from the theory that supports the analysis of policies and the real estate market to the construction of the computational model. It also presents the...
Chapter
Full-text available
O objetivo deste capítulo é apresentar algumas das inúmeras possibilidades da utilização de simulações computacionais em apoio à tomada de decisão de políticas públicas.
Book
Full-text available
PolicySpace2 é um modelo computacional, primordialmente endógeno, empírico, dinâmico e espacial, que inclui financiamento imobiliário, construção civil, arrecadação e distribuição de impostos, mercados de trabalho, de bens e serviços e imobiliário para regiões metropolitanas brasileiras. A plataforma permite compreender mecanismos do mercado imobil...
Article
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Article
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Conference Paper
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This paper presents an agent-based model that simulates the dynamic process of urban transition in major socioeconomic shocks. The model features the coupled housing and labour markets in heterogeneous neighbourhoods in a city that is going through a major transition in the industrial structure. We consider a scenario where the old or traditional i...
Preprint
Full-text available
Policymakers decide on alternative policies facing restricted budgets and uncertain future. Designing public policies is further difficult due to the need to decide on priorities and handle effects across policies. Housing policies, specifically, involve heterogeneous characteristics of properties themselves and the intricacy of housing markets and...
Article
Full-text available
Violence against women occurs predominantly in the family and domestic context. The COVID-19 pandemic has led Brazil to recommend and at times, impose social distancing, with the partial closure of economic activities, schools, and restrictions on events and public services. Preliminary evidence shows that intense coexistence increases domestic vio...
Technical Report
Full-text available
A violência contra a mulher ocorre predominantemente no contexto familiar e doméstico. A pandemia de Covid-19 (Sars-COV-2) levou o Brasil a recomendar e, por vezes, impor o distanciamento social, com fechamento parcial de atividades econômicas, escolas e restrições de eventos e serviços públicos. Com isso, houve intensificação da presença das famíl...
Preprint
Full-text available
Violence against women occurs predominantly in the family and domestic context. The COVID-19 pandemic led Brazil to recommend and, at times, impose social distancing, with the partial closure of economic activities, schools, and restrictions on events and public services. Preliminary evidence shows that intense coexistence increases domestic violen...
Article
Full-text available
Esta Nota Técnica descreve o processo computacional de geração de indivíduos e famílias artificiais, a partir de dados do censo demográfico de 2010. As famílias geradas podem ser utilizadas em processos de simulação e modelagem mantendo a proporção e os detalhes da população de interesse, sem necessidade de manipulação direta dos dados do Instituto...
Data
Lista de municípios com a sequencia de desmembramentos
Technical Report
Full-text available
Real estate markets are subject to dynamic, ever-changing influences from location, amenities and neighborhoods; regulation, zoning and population changes; but also – macroeconomic variables, such as interest rates, inflation and economic cycles. The decision to buy or rent a durable, financially significant asset is a difficult one for both expert...
Article
Full-text available
Duas propostas legislativas sobre criação e emancipação de municípios foram vetadas integralmente pelo executivo em 2013 e 2014. Em agosto de 2018, mais um projeto de lei complementar, com seis apensos, segue em regime de urgência, aguardando votação no plenário da Câmara. O tema de criação e emancipação de municípios é premente no debate legislati...
Preprint
Full-text available
We propose a controlled simulation within a competitive sum-zero environment as a proxy for disaggregating components of success. Given a simulation of the Risk board game, we consider (a) Talent to be one of three rule-based strategies used by players; (b) Context as the setting of each run of the game with opponents’ strategies, goals and luck; a...
Technical Report
Full-text available
Esta nota técnica está baseada na produção recente deste pesquisador (Furtado, 2018; 2019) e busca comunicar resultados que sugerem a relevância e progressividade do Fundo de Participação de Municípios (FPM) no âmbito de municípios metropolitanos conurbados.
Technical Report
Full-text available
O tema de criação e emancipação de municípios é premente no debate legislativo brasileiro. Duas propostas sobre esse tema foram vetadas integralmente pelo Executivo em 2013 e 2014, todavia, em agosto de 2018, mais um projeto de lei complementar, com seis apensos, segue em regime de urgência, aguardando votação no plenário da Câmara. A literatura ac...
Technical Report
Full-text available
Este texto apresenta os resultados de um esforço preliminar de simulação dos possíveis efeitos de regras alternativas de limites a doações de campanha. Mais especificamente, utilizamos simulação numérica para verificar se alterações nesses limites impactam o grau de concentração das fontes de doação, um elemento-chave da defesa desse tipo de reform...
Article
Full-text available
Em Financiamento do desenvolvimento no Brasil, os autores apresentam indicadores do mercado de capitais brasileiros, debatem a participação dos créditos livre e direcionado no país e refletem sobre as justificativas econômicas para a intervenção do governo no mercado de crédito, via bancos públicos. Os dados apresentados par anos recentes mostram,...
Preprint
Full-text available
The Stable Marriage Problem (SMP) has been extremely discussed in the literature and it is useful to a number of real-world applications. We propose a generalized version of the SMP in which numbers of the matching groups are different as in [9]. However, we go further to make a percentage of each group behave as active message senders. As such, th...
Article
Full-text available
This special issue brings 18 papers on applied policy modeling where the complex nature of the systems (and intervention techniques) plays a significant role. The issue covers a range of applications from crime, finance and trade, infrastructure, and engineering to health policies. In order to tackle these multifaceted problems, a plethora of metho...
Article
Full-text available
We argue that building agent-based and equation-based versions of the same theoretical model is a fruitful way of developing rigorous and powerful complementary insights into real-world questions. We use the epistemological concept of “models as isolations and surrogate systems” (MISS) as the philosophical underpinning of this argument. In particul...
Chapter
Full-text available
A disponibilidade de poupança para financiar o investimento é uma variável-chave para o aumento da produtividade da economia brasileira. Entretanto, o Brasil sofre de um duplo problema: além da baixa taxa de poupança, o país possui um sistema de intermediação financeira repleto de distorções. A carência de financiamento de longo prazo e a ineficiên...
Article
Full-text available
Brazilian executive bodies have consistently vetoed legislative initiatives that ease the creation and emancipation of municipalities. Previous research confirms the negative impact of fragmentation on municipal effectiveness. In order to provide support for arguments for metropolitan unions, this paper attempts to quantify the quality of life for m...
Preprint
Full-text available
Brazilian executive body has consistently vetoed legislative initiatives easing creation and emancipation of municipalities. The literature lists evidence of the negative results of municipal fragmentation, especially so for metropolitan regions. In order to provide evidences for the argument of metropolitan union, this paper quantifies the quality...
Chapter
Full-text available
A disponibilidade de poupança para financiar o investimento é uma variável-chave para o aumento da produtividade da economia brasileira. Entretanto, o Brasil sofre de um duplo problema: além da baixa taxa de poupança, o país possui um sistema de intermediação financeira repleto de distorções. A carência de financiamento de longo prazo e a ineficiên...
Article
Full-text available
Os centros antigos das cidades são regiões internas às metrópoles que se destacam por seu valor simbólico e por estarem sujeitos à decadência e esvaziamento. Em geral, a configuração espacial da população e dos empregos determina a relevância locacional dos sítios urbanos, os fluxos de mobilidade e a própria vitalidade de cada porção urbana, inclus...
Chapter
Full-text available
O objetivo geral deste capítulo é compreender as origens e a alocação dos recursos que fomentam os sistemas de crédito imobiliário no Brasil. Investigam-se a compatibilidade da estrutura do funding e a alocação final desses recursos na forma de financiamento imobiliário. A análise se inicia a partir das fontes originárias de recursos de crédito e d...
Book
Full-text available
The purpose of this book is to offer an additional tool of modeling to society in general and to managers of the res publica in particular. Not only conceptually, abstractly – but as a concrete tool, available and adaptable. In fact, PolicySpace is an empirical platform, adjusted for the case of 333 Brazilian municipalities located in the 46 populat...
Book
Full-text available
O futuro não é previsível. É construído. Contextualmente, de forma paulatina. Com avanços, entendimentos e adaptações, correções. É negociado - e emerge como resultado inexorável das interações sociais, institucionais e políticas. Políticas públicas-como conceito tênue de planejamento, veículo de interesses da sociedade-balanceiam, avaliam, contêm...
Article
Full-text available
Public Policy involves proposing changes to existing practices, alternatives, new habits. Citizens and institutions react accordingly, accepting, refuting or adapting. Agent-based modeling is a tool that can enrich the policy analysis package explicitly considering dynamics, space and individual-level interactions. This paper presents a modeling pl...
Article
Full-text available
Os objetos alvo de políticas públicas são os cidadãos, comunidades, cidades, instituições. Implementar, monitorar e avaliar políticas públicas para tais atores é tarefa complexa que envolve diagnósticos, mas também análises das interações entre os atores e entendimento de como suas ações e reações se darão no futuro. Este estudo apresenta arcabouço...
Article
Full-text available
Running agent-based models (ABMs) is a burdensome computational task, specially so when considering the flexibility ABMs intrinsically provide. This paper uses a bundle of model configuration parameters along with obtained results from a validated ABM to train some Machine Learning methods for socioeconomic optimal cases. A larger space of possible...
Article
Full-text available
The model presented in this paper experiments with a comprehensive simulant agent in order to provide an exploratory platform in which simulation modelers may try alternative scenarios and participation in policy decision-making. The framework is built in a computationally distributed online format in which users can join in and visually explore th...
Article
Full-text available
This paper extends and adapts an existing abstract model into an empirical metropolitan region in Brazil. The model - named SEAL: a Spatial Economic Agent-based Lab - comprehends a framework to enable public policy ex-ante analysis. The aim of the model is to use official data and municipalities spatial boundaries to allow for policy experimentatio...
Article
Full-text available
Correction comment on the article ACEMOGLU, D. & ROBINSON, J. A. 2002. The Political Economy of the Kuznets Curve. Review of Development Economics, 6, 183-203.
Article
Full-text available
This study simulates the evolution of artificial economies in order to understand the tax relevance of administrative boundaries in the quality of life of its citizens. The modeling involves the construction of a computational algorithm, which includes citizens, bounded into families; firms and governments; all of them interacting in markets for go...
Technical Report
Full-text available
This text reports in detail how SEAL, a modeling framework for the economy based on individual agents and firms, works. Thus, it aims to be an usage manual for those wishing to use SEAL or SEAL's results. As a reference work, theoretical and research studies are only cited. SEAL is thought as a Lab that enables the simulation of the economy with sp...
Conference Paper
Full-text available
This paper advances the argument that urban governance may benefit from using agent-based modeling methodology in order to help organize the bundle of spatial data and agents interactions into a cohesive prognostic platform. SEAL – a Spatially bounded Economic Agent-based Lab – is presented and some of its actual and planned applications are discus...
Data
Full-text available
Data
Full-text available
Technical Report
Full-text available
The firm is the institutional means that employees use to work together and achieve economies of scale whereas applying the same level of effort. This work investigates the dynamic process of aggregation of individuals in firms, reflecting the dynamics of the firms themselves. A network-based agent-model is adapted from Axtell (2013) and simulated...
Technical Report
Full-text available
O artigo faz uma leitura geral dos grupos de pesquisa do CNPq em 2014, descrevendo sua composição, o número de pesquisadores e de estudantes, as grandes áreas, a localização, entre outros. O estudo avaliou, especialmente, os grupos que se conectam por meio de pesquisadores, estudantes ou empresas em comum. Dessa identificação, as estruturas das red...
Technical Report
Full-text available
This paper is a theoretical review of consumer price indices, with an emphasis on the specifics of the real estate market, highlighting advantages and limitations. It discusses the following indices of average prices: Laspeyres, Paasche, Fisher and Jevons. In addi-tion, it presents two variations of construction by hedonic methods: with insertion o...
Technical Report
Full-text available
Este texto simula a evolução de economias artificiais no intuito de compreender a relevância tributária de limites administrativos na qualidade de vida de seus habitantes. A modelagem consiste na construção de algoritmo computacional cujo desenho contemple cidadãos, organizados em famílias; firmas e governos que interagem em mercados de bens, de tr...
Technical Report
Full-text available
O primeiro artigo, Da mobilidade metropolitana vinculada à economia: análise a partir de um modelo baseado em agentes, de Bernardo Alves Furtado e Isaque Daniel Eberhardt, apresenta uma aplicação preliminar do modelo espacial simples de uma economia com agentes para a mobilidade metropolitana, com o objetivo de observar efeitos nos mercados de trab...
Technical Report
Full-text available
O primeiro artigo, Da mobilidade metropolitana vinculada à economia: análise a partir de um modelo baseado em agentes, de Bernardo Alves Furtado e Isaque Daniel Eberhardt, apresenta uma aplicação preliminar do modelo espacial simples de uma economia com agentes para a mobilidade metropolitana, com o objetivo de observar efeitos nos mercados de trab...
Technical Report
Full-text available
Este documento apresenta a primeira etapa da pesquisa Retrato das Áreas Urbanas Centrais no Brasil. A pesquisa tem como finalidade testar algumas hipóteses sobre as áreas centrais brasileiras, em especial em relação a: i) perda de população nas últimas décadas; ii) deslocamento de atividades econômicas; iii) existência de parque imobiliário residen...
Technical Report
Full-text available
This study simulates the evolution of artificial economies in order to understand the tax relevance of administrative boundaries in the quality of life of its citizens. The modeling involves the construction of a computational algorithm, which includes citizens, bounded into families; firms and governments; all of them interacting in markets for go...
Article
Full-text available
O objetivo deste texto é apresentar de forma imediata, mas também precisa e espacialmente detalhada, a situação de vulnerabilidade das famílias brasileiras a partir das respostas aos censos demográficos de 2000 e 2010. Dessa forma, espera-se oferecer aos gestores públicos em específico e a pesquisadores e ao público em geral material de acesso e re...
Book
Full-text available
Sistemas complexos podem ser definidos de forma ampla e abraçar conceitos de diferentes campos da ciência, da física à biologia, à computação e às ciências sociais. O conceito central de sistemas complexos pressupõe sistemas dinâmicos, não lineares, que contêm grande número de interações entre as partes. Esses sistemas se modificam, de modo a apren...
Technical Report
Full-text available
Complex systems’ approach and methodologies emphasize interactions, diversity and dynamics. Complex systems perspectives also enable public policies to be considered comprehensively and simulated in all their multiplicity of sectors and scales, of cause and effect. This paper attempts to summarize the content of the book of the project “Modeling Co...
Technical Report
Full-text available
Theoretical models of the Kuznets Curve have been purely analytical with little contribution towards an understanding of the timing of the process and the presence of additional mechanisms affecting its timing. This paper proposes an agent-based version of Acemoglu and Robinson’s model of the Kuznets Curve. In extending their analytical framework...
Technical Report
Full-text available
This text was written as part of the project ‘Modelling of Complex Systems for Public Policy’. It reviews the classical authors who jointly contributed to establish the elements of what could constitute a ‘science of complexity’. Based on the original writings of these authors, the text discusses the central concepts of complex systems: i) the inte...
Technical Report
Full-text available
This text was written as part of the project Modelling of Complex Systems for Public Policy. It reviews the classical authors who jointly contributed to establish the elements of what could constitute a “science of complexity”. Based on the original writings of these authors, the text discusses the central concepts of complex systems: i) the intera...
Conference Paper
Theoretical models of the Kuznets Curve have been purely analytical with little contribution to the timing of the process and to the presence of additional mechanisms affecting its timing. This paper proposes an agent-based version of Acemoglu and Robinsons model of the political economy of the Kuznets Curve. In extending their analytical framework...