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Publications (250)
Au Sénégal, l’agriculture est majoritairement pluviale et fortement dépendante de services météorologiques. Ainsi, toute information sur la pluviométrie à venir est importante pour les cultivateurs afin d’anticiper l’arrivée tardive des pluies ou d’années particulièrement sèches. En pays sereer (région de Fatick), les Saltigui (devins) participent...
In sub-Saharan Africa, temperatures are generally conducive to malaria transmission, and rainfall provides mosquitoes with optimal breeding conditions. The objective of this study is to assess the impact of future climate change on malaria transmission in West Africa using community-based vector-borne disease models, TRIeste (VECTRI). This VECTRI m...
Food insecurity is among one of the greatest risks posed by climate change in Africa, where 90 to 95% of African food production is rainfed and a large proportion of the population already faces chronic hunger and malnutrition. Although, several studies have found robust evidence of future crop yield losses under climate change scenarios, there is...
Problem: Sustainable intensification of cereal cropping systems can contribute to reducing food insecurity while mitigating biodiversity losses thanks to land sparing. Yet, intensifying crop production with more nutrient inputs often increases sensitivity to climate hazards and yields inter-annual variability. How different options for sustainable...
On the climate-health issue, studies have already attempted to understand the influence of climate change on the transmission of malaria. Extreme weather events such as floods, droughts, or heat waves can alter the course and distribution of malaria. This study aims to understand the impact of future climate change on malaria transmission using, fo...
A large range of climate change impacts is expected during the twenty-first century in vulnerable regions such as West Africa, where local populations largely rely on Livestock systems as their main food production and income source. As climate change threatens livestock systems in various ways, here we assess how regional livestock could be expose...
Main findings • The flooding occurred as a consequence of above average rainfall throughout the 2022 rainy season exacerbated by shorter spikes of very heavy rain leading to flash floods as well as riverine floods. We therefore consider seasonal average rainfall over Lake Chad and 7-day maximum rainfall along the lower Niger Basin as the basis for...
Agriculture plays an important role in Senegalese economy and annual early warning predictions of crop yields are highly relevant in the context of climate change. In this study, we used three main machine learning methods (support vector machine, random forest, neural network) and one multiple linear regression method, namely Least Absolute Shrink...
Main findings:
A large part of the population of Central Sahel strongly depends on the annual rains and is thus chronically vulnerable to deviations from a normal season (e.g., delay in the onset of the rainy season, dry period within the rainy season, early end, etc);
Rainfall during the wet season (June to September) in Central Sahel is highly va...
The Sahelian Great Green Wall (SGGW) is an influential project to combat desertification and promote sustainable land management on a large scale, involving 11 countries in the Sahel region of Africa. The UNCCD’s 2020 progress report showed a mixed picture concerning the meeting of the initial targets. At the One Planet Summit in 2021, announcement...
These datasets present the references collected in different scientific literature databases about Sahel Great Green Wall (SGGW) in September and December 2021.
Available online : https://data.mendeley.com/datasets/fv6xg2rc26/1
Intercropping is a key entry point for sustainable intensification of cropping systems in sub-Saharan Africa where variable rainfall conditions prevail. Crop simulation models can complement field experiments to assess the agronomic and environmental performances of intercropping systems under diverse climatic conditions, including hypothetical fut...
Cereal production systems in semi-arid environments in Senegal are extensive and highly depend on weather and climate-related effects. Assessing climate change impacts on the main staple food crops is essential to ensure food security. This study aims to assess climate change impacts on millet and sorghum in Niakhar and Toubacouta, two locations in...
Reaching net zero CO2 (balance of residual emissions and sinks) by 2050 is needed to maintain
the global mean temperature on Earth below 1.5°C in 2100. This central message of the 1.5°C
special report by IPCC (2018) has led to multiple carbon neutrality commitments by countries,
private sector and local authorities. The race to net zero CO2 is a fu...
In this study, we analyze the impact of bias correction models on present and future precipitation and extremes rainfall events over Senegal. The commonly used linear scaling (LS) bias correction method has been applied on four (4) regional climate models (RCMs) of the Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment (CORDEX) program. The linear...
Adaptation of the agricultural sector to climate change is crucial to avoid food insecurity in sub-Saharan Africa. Farmers’ perception of climate change is a crucial element in adaptation process. The aim of this study was (i) to compare farmers’ perception of climate change with actual weather data recorded in central Mali and (ii) to identify cha...
On the Amazon river, northwest of the basin of the Amazon river, the stream
gauging station of Tamshiyacu (Peru) reports that the level goes down by 7
meters between the flood in April-May and the low water levels in September.
This decline allows the cultivation of large fertile dewatered areas on the
riverbanks and floodplains (varzea). Subsisten...
Rainfed crop production predominates in West Africa. Rice is an important staple food, especially in Senegal. The scope for increase in rice production under irrigated conditions is uncertain. Rainfed rice is therefore a key component for regional food security impelling agronomists to assess climate change impact on rainfed rice yield and to desig...
Introduction Weather parameters are the main limited factors for simulating yield for the crop growth models. It is well known the effect of single weather parameters on crop development but the interaction remains uncertain in condition of high variability of climate such as West Africa. This region is characterized by a continuous increase of tem...
We present results from the Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP) Global Gridded Crop Model Intercomparison (GGCMI) Phase I, which aligned 14 global gridded crop models (GGCMs) and 11 climatic forcing datasets (CFDs) in order to understand how the selection of climate data affects simulated historical crop productivity...
Le climat exerce une influence très forte sur l'agriculture, qui est considérée comme l'activité humaine sans doute la plus dépendante des variations climatiques. Les impacts du changement climatique sur l'agriculture affecteront tout particulièrement les pays en développement des latitudes tropicales, qui connaissent déjà une grande variabilité cl...
En 'Amazonie des rivières ', au nord-ouest du bassin, le fleuve Amazonas descend de 7 m entre la crue en avril-mai et l'étiage en septembre, à la station fluviométrique de Tamshiyacu (Pérou). La décrue permet la mise en culture de vastes zones exondées et fertiles sur les berges de la rivière et dans les plaines d'inondation (varzea). Les cultures...
Flood recession farming practiced in flood-prone areas and on the banks of rivers and lakes in arid or semi-arid environments essentially depends on the soil water stock after the flood has receded. During these last few decades, this coveted agriculture is increasingly challenged by severe water constraints, due to increased hydrological hazards a...
Climate change is already affecting agro-ecosystems and threatening food security by reducing crop productivity and increasing harvest uncertainty. Mobilizing crop diversity could be an efficient way to mitigate its impact. We test this hypothesis in pearl millet, a nutritious staple cereal cultivated in arid and low-fertility soils in sub-Saharan...
Food security is a crucial issue in the Sahel and could be endangered by climate change and demographic pressure during the 21st century. Higher temperatures and changes in rainfall induced by global warming are threatening rainfed agriculture in this region while the population is expected to increase approximately threefold until 2050. Our study...
The Paris Climate Agreements and Sustainable Development Goals, signed by 197 countries, present agendas and address key issues for implementing multi-scale responses for sustainable development under climate change—an effort that must involve local, regional, national, and supra-national stakeholders. In that regard, Continental Carbon Sequestrati...
Climate change studies in recent decades have been based on Global Climate Models (GCMs), and the changes in the distribution of climatic regions over time extracted from these models can be represented using the K€ oppen climatic classification system, which predicts the global distribution of biomes based on monthly precipitation and average temp...
The time of emergence (TOE) of climate change is defined as the time when a new climate state emerges from a prior one. TOE assessment is particularly relevant in West Africa, a region highly threatened by climate change and urgently needing trustworthy climate predictions. In this paper, the TOE of precipitation change in West Africa is assessed f...
Food security is a crucial issue in the Sahel and could be endangered by climate change and demographic pressure during the 21st century. Indeed, people in rural areas mainly practice rainfed agriculture for subsistence during the monsoon rainfall season. Higher temperatures and changes in rainfall induced by global warming are threatening food pro...
Climate services have been criticised in the past for their tendency to only disseminate results from climate research, rather than to seek to understand and tailor to the needs of their target audiences. Two surveys have been conducted within two projects, ISIpedia and CLIMAP, to assess users’ needs for climate and climate impacts information of a...
Climate model projections generally indicate fewer but more intense tropical cyclones (TCs) in response to increasing anthropogenic emissions. However these simulations suffer from long-standing biases in their Sea Surface temperature (SST). While most studies investigating future changes in tc activity using high-resolution atmospheric models corr...
Le futur de l’Afrique de l’Ouest dépend de la capacité du secteur de l’agriculture à s’adapter pour garantir la sécurité alimentaire dans un contexte de changement climatique et de croissance démographique. Pour faciliter cette adaptation, la recherche a déployé d’importants efforts pour améliorer les connaissances sur les mécanismes climatiques et...
Le futur de l'Afrique de l'Ouest, son équilibre économique, politique et social dépendent de la capacité du secteur de l'agriculture à s'adapter pour garantir la sécurité alimentaire dans un contexte de pressions multiples comme celles engendrées par le changement climatique et la croissance démographique. Pour faciliter cette adaptation, la recher...
This study aims reporting on 23 gridded precipitation datasets (P-datasets) reliability across West Africa through direct comparisons with rain gauges measurement at the daily and monthly time scales over a 4 years period (2000-2003). All P-datasets reliability vary in space and time. The most efficient P-dataset in term of Kling–Gupta Efficiency (...
Achieving food security goals in West Africa will depend on the capacity of the agricultural sector to feed the rapidly growing population and to moderate the adverse impacts of climate change. indeed, a number of studies anticipate a reduction of the crop yield of the main staple food crops in the region in the coming decades due to global warming...
In Africa, adaptation will be crucial to offset expected negative climate change impacts on food security and agriculture development. In this study, we combine meteorological data from 18 local stations, field surveys on agricultural practices and agronomic information on the growth of millet to demonstrate the crop suitability to the present clim...
We applied two metrics, apparent temperature and humidex, to calculate heat stress in both present and future climates. We use an ensemble of CORDEX-Africa simulations to estimate heat stress during a baseline period and at two specific warming levels, 2 and 4 ∘C above pre-industrial. The increase in temperatures and changes to the precipitation di...
Mali is a Sahelian country with a large climatic contrast from North to South. The current climatic and production evolutionary study is focused on the six major agro-climatic cereal production zones ranging from Kayes (400 mm) to Sikasso (>1000 mm) of rainfalls. Climatic data are rainfall records, daily maximum and minimum temperatures from 60 yea...
This paper is submitted to Applied Geography.
Climate change studies in the last decades have been based on Global Climate Models (GCM), and the distribution of climatic regions over time extracted from these models can be represented using the Köppen climatic classification. The Köppen approach predicts the distribution of biomes worldwide on the...
Climate change directly threatens food security in West Africa through a negative impact on productivity of the main staple food crops. However, providing consistent future crop yield projections in the region remains challenging because of uncertainty in the response of the regional climate to the CO2 increase and in the response of the cultivated...
Comment, depuis plusieurs décennies, la recherche scientifique contribue-t-elle au développement des pays du Sud ? À travers plus de 100 succès emblématiques de la recherche en partenariat, cet ouvrage nous plonge au coeur des grandes questions de développement : oeuvrer pour des sociétés plus justes, lutter contre les maladies, faire face aux risq...
Maize (Zea mays) is one of the staple crops of West Africa and is therefore of high importance with regard to future food security. The ability of West Africa to produce enough food is critical as the population is expected to increase well into the twenty-first century. In this study, a process-based crop model is used to project maize yields in A...
In the West African Sahel, two paradoxical hydrological behaviors have occurred during the last five decades. The first paradox was observed during the 1968–1990s ‘Great Drought’ period, during which runoff significantly increased. The second paradox appeared during the subsequent period of rainfall recovery (i.e., since the 1990s), during which th...
The objective of this paper is to present a new dataset of bias-corrected CMIP5 global climate model (GCM) daily data over Africa. This dataset was obtained using the cumulative distribution function transform (CDF-t) method, a method that has been applied to several regions and contexts but never to Africa. Here CDF-t has been applied over the per...
By using a detailed agricultural and climate dataset over Burkina-Faso and simple assumptions regarding the form of an insurance contract, the authors investigate the potential economic efficiency for farmers of a weather-index insurance system in this country. To do so, the results of more than 3000 simulated contracts applied to 30 districts, 21...
Symposium on Social Theory and the Environment in the New World (dis)Order ; International audience ; In West Africa, agriculture, mainly rainfed, is a major economic sector and the one most vulnerable to climate change. A meta-database of future crop yields, built up from 16 recent studies, is used to provide an overall assessment of the potential...
The ability of a region to feed itself in the upcoming decades is an important issue. The West African population is expected to increase significantly in the next 30 years. The responses of crops to short-term climate change is critical to the population and the decision makers tasked with food security. This leads to three questions: how will cro...
The objective of this paper is to present a new data set of bias-corrected CMIP5 global climate models (GCMs) daily data over Africa. This dataset was obtained in using the Cumulative Distribution Function Transform (CDF-t) method, a method that has been applied on several regions and contexts but never on Africa. Here CDF-t is used over the period...
Land Use Land-Cover Change (LULCC), such as deforestation, affects the climate system and land-atmosphere interactions. Using simulations carried out within the LUCID (Land Use and Climate, IDentification of robust Impacts) project framework, we first quantify the role of historical land-cover change induced by human activities on surface climate i...
We present work using two long-term climate datasets to show that nitrogen fertiliser is an important aspect of yield projection for three major crops. The ability of linear models using climate variables as predictors to accurately project the yield of maize, rice and wheat over multi-decadal scales is improved with the addition of fertiliser as a...
The reference evapotranspiration (ET 0 ) is an integrated climatic variable from which many crop models derive simulated crop yields. In most of these models, different equations are parameterized leaving the choice of the equation to the user. However, the impact of the choice of the ET 0 equations on crop yield prediction has been little studied....
The ability of a country or region to feed itself in the upcoming decades is a question of importance. The population in West Africa is expected to increase significantly in the next 30 years. The responses of food crops to short term climate change is therefore critical to the population at large and the decision makers tasked with providing food...
The acceleration of ice sheet melting has been observed over the
last few decades. Recent observations and modeling studies have
suggested that the ice sheet contribution to future sea level rise
could have been underestimated in the latest Intergovernmental
Panel on Climate Change report. The ensuing freshwater discharge
coming from ice sheets cou...
Background:
Europe has warmed more than the global average (land and ocean) since pre-industrial times, and is also projected to continue to warm faster than the global average in the twenty-first century. According to the climate models ensemble projections for various climate scenarios, annual mean temperature of Europe for 2071-2100 is predicte...
Different CMIP exercises show that the simulations of the future/current temperature and precipitation are complex with a high uncertainty degree. For example, the African monsoon system is not correctly simulated and most of the CMIP5 models underestimate the precipitation. Therefore, Global Climate Models (GCMs) show significant systematic biases...
En ligne avec les processus globaux en matière de changement climatique (Accord sur le Climat de
Paris et conférence des partis à Marrakech), de réduction des risques de catastrophes (Cadre d’Action
de Sendai pour la Réduction des Risques de Catastrophe) et les Objectifs de Développement Durables
(ODD), la FAO poursuit l’objectif fondamental de met...
Tropical Africa has been highlighted as a hot spot of land
surface-atmosphere interactions. In this study, we analyze the outputs
of the project Land-Use and Climate, Identification of Robust Impacts
(LUCID) over Africa. LUCID uses seven land-atmosphere models with common
experimental configurations to explain the strong and constant impact of
the...
Data from Senegal (semi-arid Africa), where traditional food crops productions are low and far from attainable yields. With a model (CELSIUS), we assessed the impact of climate change on millet yield, building various future scenarios (climate x fertilization). Climate change impact was compared with crop intensification (i.e. increased fertilizati...
In the coming decades, the already fragile agricultural system in West Africa will face further challenges in meeting food security, both from increasing population and from the impacts of climate change. Optimal prioritization of adaptation investments requires the assessment of various possible adaptation options and their uncertainties; successf...
