Benjamin J Cowling

The University of Hong Kong | HKU · School of Public Health

Background Many countries/regions implemented strict border measures (e.g., 14-day quarantines) as a blanket policy to prevent COVID-19 importations, while proposed “travel bubbles” as an alternative to reduce the impact of border controls. We aim to examine the differential importation risks with departure origins and post-arrival controls. Metho...

Background Influenza virus infections can cause hospitalizations in children, and annual vaccination of children can provide protection against influenza. Methods We analyzed a test-negative design study with data spanning from 2010/11 through 2019/20 to evaluate influenza vaccine effectiveness (VE) against influenza hospitalization in children by...

Background Influenza is the most common vaccine-preventable disease in Australia, causing significant morbidity and mortality. We assessed the burden of influenza across all ages in terms of influenza-associated mortality and hospitalizations using national mortality, hospital-discharge and influenza surveillance data. Methods Influenza-associated...

Background. A large cluster of 59 cases were linked to a single flight with 146 passengers from New Delhi to Hong Kong in April 2021. This outbreak coincided with early reports of exponential pandemic growth in New Delhi, which reached a peak of >400,000 newly confirmed cases on 7 May 2021. Methods. Epidemiological information including date of sym...

Background Evidence remains inconclusive on any significant benefits of remdesivir in mild-to-moderate COVID-19 patients. This study explored the disease progression, various clinical outcomes, changes in viral load, and costs associated with early remdesivir treatment among COVID-19 patients. Methods A territory-wide retrospective cohort of 10,41...

Prompt antiviral treatment has the potential to reduce influenza virus transmission to close contacts, but rigorous data on the magnitude of treatment effects on transmission are limited. Animal model data indicate that rapid reductions in viral replication following antiviral treatment reduce the risk of transmission. Observational and clinical tr...

We constructed a coronavirus disease community vulnerability index using micro district-level socioeconomic and demographic data and analyzed its correlations with case counts across the 3 pandemic waves in Hong Kong, China. We found that districts with greater vulnerability reported more cases in the third wave when widespread community outbreaks...

Hong Kong utilized an elimination strategy with intermittent use of public health and social measures and increasingly stringent travel regulations to control SARS-CoV-2 transmission. By analyzing >1700 genome sequences representing 17% of confirmed cases from 23-January-2020 to 26-January-2021, we reveal the effects of fluctuating control measures...

Incubation period is an important parameter to inform quarantine period and to study transmission dynamics of infectious diseases. We conducted a systematic review and meta-analysis on published estimates of the incubation period distribution of COVID-19, and showed that the pooled median of the point estimates of the mean, median and 95 th percent...

Climate drivers such as humidity and temperature may play a key role in influenza seasonal transmission dynamics. Such a relationship has been well defined for temperate regions. However, to date no models capable of capturing the diverse seasonal pattern in tropical and subtropical climates exist. In addition, multiple influenza viruses could coci...

Estimating the time-varying reproductive number, Rt, is critical for monitoring transmissibility of an infectious disease. The impact of imported cases on the estimation is rarely explored. We developed a model to estimate separately the Rt for local cases and imported cases, with accounting for imperfect contact tracing of cases. We applied this f...

Community-wide social distancing has been a cornerstone of pandemic control prior to mass vaccinations. The extent to which pandemic fatigue is undermining adherence to such measures and accelerating transmission remains unclear. Using large-scale weekly telephone surveys and mobility data, we characterize the evolution of risk perception and prote...

Phase 3 randomized-controlled trials have provided promising results of COVID-19 vaccine efficacy, ranging from 50-95% against symptomatic disease as the primary endpoints, resulting in emergency use authorization/listing for several vaccines. However, given the short duration of follow-up during the clinical trials, strict eligibility criteria, em...

Background After relaxing social distancing measures, South Korea experienced a resurgent second epidemic wave of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19). In this study, we aimed to identify the transmission dynamics of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) infections and assess the impact of COVID-19 case finding and contact tra...

Background Estimates of the serial interval distribution contribute to our understanding of the transmission dynamics of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19). Here, we aimed to summarize the existing evidence on serial interval distributions and delays in case isolation for COVID-19. Methods We conducted a systematic review of the published literat...

Identifying effective drug treatments for COVID-19 is essential to reduce morbidity and mortality. Although a number of existing drugs have been proposed as potential COVID-19 treatments, effective data platforms and algorithms to prioritize drug candidates for evaluation and application of knowledge graph for drug repurposing have not been adequat...

Background: Testing of an entire community has been used as an approach to control COVID-19. In Hong Kong, a universal community testing programme (UCTP) was implemented at the fadeout phase of a community epidemic in July to September 2020, to determine the prevalence of unrecognised cases and limit any remaining transmission chains. We described...

Observational studies of the effectiveness of vaccines to prevent COVID-19 are needed to inform real-world use. Such studies are now underway amid the ongoing rollout of SARS-CoV-2 vaccines globally. While traditional case-control and test-negative design studies feature prominently among strategies used to assess vaccine effectiveness, such studie...

Background: Monitoring community psychological and behavioural responses to coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) is important for informing policy making and risk communication to sustain public compliance with challenging precautionary behaviours and mitigating the psychological impacts. Methods: Monthly telephone surveys in January-April 2020 and...

Objectives: Mask-wearing outside the home has been almost universal in Hong Kong since late January 2020 with very high compliance. Nevertheless, community spread of COVID-19 has still occurred. We aimed to assess the settings where COVID-19 transmission occurred and determine the fraction of transmission events that occurred in settings where mas...

Background: Early in the COVID-19 pandemic, there was a concern over possible increase in antibiotic use due to co-infections among COVID-19 patients in the community. Here, we evaluate the changes in nationwide use of broad-spectrum antibiotics during the COVID-19 epidemic in South Korea. Methods: We obtained national reimbursement data on the...

Test-negative studies are commonly used to estimate influenza vaccine effectiveness (VE). In a typical study, an “overall VE” estimate may be reported based on data from the entire sample. However, there may be heterogeneity in VE, particularly by age. We therefore discuss the potential for a weighted average of age-specific VE estimates to provide...

Influenza is a common respiratory infection that causes considerable morbidity and mortality worldwide each year. In recent years, along with the improvement in computational resources, there have been a number of important developments in the science of influenza surveillance and forecasting. Influenza surveillance systems have been improved by sy...

Background Nine years after the introduction of pneumococcal conjugate vaccine (PCV) in the United States, Hong Kong (HK) introduced the vaccine to its universal childhood immunisation programme in 2009. We aimed to assess the impact of childhood PCV immunisation on all-cause pneumonia (ACP) admissions among the overall population of HK. Methods I...

Background The comparative performance of different clinical sampling methods for diagnosis of SARS-CoV-2 infection by RT-PCR among populations with suspected infection remains unclear. This meta-analysis aims to systematically compare the diagnostic performance of different clinical specimen collection methods. Methods In this systematic review a...

An outbreak of COVID-19 occurred on the Diamond Princess cruise ship in January and February 2020 in Japan. We analysed information on the cases of infection to infer whether airborne transmission of SARS-CoV-2, the causative agent of COVID-19, had occurred between cabins. We infer from our analysis that most infections in passengers started on 28...

Background The relative contributions of asymptomatic, pre-symptomatic and symptomatic transmission of SARS-CoV-2 have not been clearly measured although control measures may differ in response to the risk of spread posed by different types of cases. Methods We collected detailed information on transmission events and symptom status based on labor...

A fast-spreading severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 variant identified in the United Kingdom in December 2020 has raised international alarm. We analyzed data from 15 countries and estimated that the chance that this variant was imported into these countries by travelers from the United Kingdom by December 7 is >50%.

Background Several countries have implemented control measures to limit SARS-CoV-2 spread, including digital contact tracing, digital monitoring of quarantined individuals and testing of travelers. These raise ethical issues around privacy, personal freedoms and equity. However, little is known regarding public acceptability of these measures. Meth...

Although airborne transmission of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) has been recognized, the condition of ventilation for its occurrence is still being debated. We analyzed a coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) outbreak involving three families in a restaurant in Guangzhou, China, assessed the possibility of airborne tran...

A large number of common cold outbreaks in Hong Kong schools and childcare centers during October-November 2020 led to territorywide school dismissals. Increased susceptibility to rhinoviruses during prolonged school closures and dismissals for coronavirus disease and varying effectiveness of nonpharmaceutical interventions may have heightened tran...

Climate drivers such as humidity and temperature may play a key role in influenza seasonal transmission dynamics. Such a relationship has been well defined for temperate regions. However, to date no models capable of capturing the diverse seasonal pattern in tropical and subtropical climates exist. In addition, multiple influenza viruses could coci...

Background To mitigate the COVID-19 pandemic, countries worldwide have enacted unprecedented movement restrictions, physical distancing measures, and face mask requirements. Until safe and efficacious vaccines or antiviral drugs become widely available, viral testing remains the primary mitigation measure for rapid identification and isolation of i...

Background The timing of administration of agents and use of combination treatments in COVID-19 remain unclear. We assessed the effectiveness of therapeutics in cohorts in Hong Kong SAR and Anhui, China. Methods We conducted propensity-score analysis of 4771 symptomatic patients from Hong Kong between 21st January and 6th December 2020, and 648 sy...

The vaccine efficacy of standard-dose seasonal inactivated influenza vaccines (S-IIV) can be improved by the use of vaccines with higher antigen content or adjuvants. We conducted a randomized controlled trial in older adults to compare cellular and antibody responses of S-IIV versus enhanced vaccines (eIIV): MF59-adjuvanted (A-eIIV), high-dose (H-...

Observational studies of the effectiveness of vaccines to prevent COVID-19 are needed to inform real-world use. These are now in planning amid the ongoing rollout of SARS-CoV-2 vaccines globally. While traditional case-control (TCC) and test-negative design (TND) studies feature prominently among strategies used to assess vaccine effectiveness, suc...

A fast-spreading SARS-CoV-2 variant identified in the United Kingdom in December 2020 has raised international alarm. We estimate that, in 16 out of 19 countries analyzed, there is at least a 50% chance the variant was imported by travelers from the United Kingdom byDecember 7th. Article Summary Line The new variant COVID-19 has likely been introd...

Background Disparities were marked in previous pandemics, usually with higher attack rates reported for those in lower socioeconomic positions and for ethnic minorities. Methods We examined characteristics of laboratory-confirmed COVID-19 cases in Hong Kong, assessed associations between incidence and population-level characteristics at the level...

The SARS-CoV-2 pandemic poses the greatest global public health challenge in a century. Neutralizing antibody is a correlate of protection and data on kinetics of virus neutralizing antibody responses are needed. We tested 293 sera from an observational cohort of 195 reverse transcription polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR) confirmed SARS-CoV-2 infe...

Objectives Current inactivated influenza vaccines provide suboptimal protection against antigenic drift, and repeated annual vaccinations shape antibody specificity but the effect on protection from infection is not well understood. Methods We studied the effects of cumulative and staggered vaccinations in mice to determine the effect of influenza...

Background Highly pathogenic avian influenza A(H5N1) virus poses a global public health threat given severe and fatal zoonotic infections since 1997 and ongoing A(H5N1) virus circulation among poultry in several countries. A comprehensive assessment of the seroprevalence of A(H5N1) virus antibodies remains a gap and limits understanding of the true...

Background Examining associations between viral genomic loads of enteroviruses and clinical severity is important for promoting and improving development of antiviral drugs related to hand, foot and mouth disease (HFMD). Methods Throat swabs were collected from HFMD cases at acute phase of illness using a standardized technique in a prospective st...

The winter influenza season 2019/20 in Hong Kong was predominated by influenza A(H1N1)pdm09. We analysed an on-going test-negative design study consisting of 1227 children admitted for febrile acute respiratory illness from 3 November 2019 (week 45) to 21 March 2020 (week 12). We estimated influenza vaccine effectiveness of 65% (95% CI: 46 – 78) ag...

Meteorological drivers are known to affect transmissibility of respiratory viruses including respiratory syncytial virus (RSV), but there are few studies quantifying the role of these drivers. We used daily RSV hospitalization data to estimate the daily effective reproduction number (Rt), a real-time measure of transmissibility, and examined its re...

Alessandro Vespignani

Superspreading events (SSEs) have characterized previous epidemics of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus (SARS-CoV) and Middle East respiratory syndrome coronavirus (MERS-CoV) infections1–6. For SARS-CoV-2, the degree to which SSEs are involved in transmission remains unclear, but there is growing evidence that SSEs might be a typical fe...

p>BACKGROUND: The extent of human infections with avian influenza A(H7N9) virus, including mild and asymptomatic infections, is uncertain. METHODS: We performed a systematic review and meta-analysis of serosurveys for avian influenza A(H7N9) virus infections in humans published during 2013-2020. Three seropositive definitions were assessed to esti...

Background Non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) against Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) are vital to reducing the transmission risks. However, the relative efficiency of social distancing against COVID-19 remains controversial, since social distancing and isolation/quarantine were implemented almost at the same time in China. Methods In thi...

Influenza virus infections are common in people of all ages. Epidemics occur in the winter months in temperate locations and at varying times of the year in subtropical and tropical locations. Most influenza virus infections cause mild and self-limiting disease, and around one-half of all infections occur with a fever. Only a small minority of infe...

The prospect of universal influenza vaccines is generating much interest and research at the intersection of immunology, epidemiology, and viral evolution. While the current focus is on developing a vaccine that elicits a broadly cross-reactive immune response in clinical trials, there are important downstream questions about global deployment of a...

We report key epidemiologic parameter estimates for coronavirus disease identified in peer-reviewed publications, preprint articles, and online reports. Range estimates for incubation period were 1.8-6.9 days, serial interval 4.0-7.5 days, and doubling time 2.3-7.4 days. The effective reproductive number varied widely, with reductions attributable...

An amendment to this paper has been published and can be accessed via a link at the top of the paper.

Background Pandemic SARS-CoV-2 was first reported in Wuhan, China on December 31, 2019. Twenty-one days later, the US identified its first case––a man who had traveled from Wuhan to the state of Washington. Recent studies in the Wuhan and Seattle metropolitan areas retrospectively tested samples taken from patients with COVID-like symptoms. In the...

Background Brief assessments of functional status for community-dwelling older adults are needed given expanded interest in the measurement of functional decline. Methods As part of a 2015 prospective cohort study of older adults aged 60–89 years in Jiangsu Province, China, 1506 participants were randomly assigned to two groups; each group was adm...

The exact transmission route of many respiratory infectious diseases remains a subject for debate to date. The relative contribution ratio of each transmission route is largely undetermined, which is affected by environmental conditions, human behaviour, the host and the microorganism. In this study, a detailed mathematical model is developed to in...

To inform seroepidemiological studies, we characterized the IgG‐ responses in COVID‐19 patients against the two major SARS‐CoV‐2 viral proteins, spike (S) and nucleocapsid (N). We tested 70 COVID‐19 sera collected up to 85 days post‐symptom onset and 230 non‐COVID‐19 sera, including 27 SARS sera from 2003. Although the average SARS‐CoV‐2 S and N‐Ig...

Studies of novel coronavirus disease (COVID-19) have reported varying estimates of epidemiological parameters including serial interval distributions, i.e., the time between illness onset in successive cases in a transmission chain, and reproduction numbers. By compiling a line-list database of transmission pairs in mainland China, we show that mea...

Background Severe COVID‐19 patients typically test positive for SARS‐CoV‐2 RNA for extended periods of time, even after recovery from severe disease. Due to the timeframe involved, these patients may have developed humoral immunity to SARS‐CoV‐2 whilst still testing positive for viral RNA in swabs. Data is lacking on exposure risks in these situati...

Background: Knowledge on the epidemiological features and transmission patterns of COVID-19 is accumulating. Detailed line-list data with household settings can advance the understanding of COVID-19 transmission dynamics. Methods: A unique database with detailed demographic characteristics, travel history, social relationships, and epidemiologic...

Influenza epidemics cause substantial morbidity and mortality every year worldwide. Currently, two influenza A subtypes, A(H1N1) and A(H3N2), and type B viruses co-circulate in humans and infection with one type/subtype could provide cross-protection against the others. However, it remains unclear how such ecologic competition via cross-immunity an...

Cities across China implemented stringent social distancing measures in early 2020 to curb coronavirus disease outbreaks. We estimated the speed with which these measures contained transmission in cities. A 1-day delay in implementing social distancing resulted in a containment delay of 2.41 (95% CI 0.97-3.86) days.

Background: Hong Kong was one of the first locations outside of mainland China to identify COVID-19 cases in January 2020. We assessed the impact of various public health measures on transmission. Methods: We analysed data on all COVID-19 cases and public health measures in Hong Kong up to 7 May 2020. We described case-based, travel-based and commu...

We analyzed transmission of coronavirus disease outside of the Daegu-Gyeongsangbuk provincial region in South Korea. We estimated that nonpharmaceutical measures reduced transmissibility by a maximum of 34% without resorting to a strict lockdown strategy. To optimize epidemic control, continuous efforts to monitor the transmissibility are needed.

An amendment to this paper has been published and can be accessed via a link at the top of the paper.

Background There are two influenza A subtypes (H1 and H3) and two influenza B lineages (Victoria and Yamagata) that currently co‐circulate in humans. In this study, we report the development of a six‐plex droplet digital RT‐PCR (ddRT‐PCR) assay that can detect HA and M segments of influenza A (H1, H3, and M) and influenza B (Yamagata HA, Victoria H...

Studies of novel coronavirus disease (COVID-19) have reported varying estimates of epidemiological parameters such as serial intervals and reproduction numbers. By compiling a unique line-list database of transmission pairs in mainland China, we demonstrated that serial intervals of COVID-19 have shortened substantially from a mean of 7.8 days to 2...

Objective: To assess the case fatality risk (CFR) of COVID-19 in mainland China, stratified by region and clinical category, and estimate key time-to-event intervals. Methods: We collected individual information and aggregated data on COVID-19 cases from publicly available official sources from December 29, 2019 to April 17, 2020. We accounted f...

Background: We analysed data from a randomized controlled trial on the reactogenicity of three enhanced influenza vaccines compared to standard-dose inactivated influenza vaccine. Methods: We enrolled community-dwelling older adults in Hong Kong, and randomly allocated them to receive 2017/18 northern hemisphere formulations of: standard-dose va...

We analyzed transmission of coronavirus disease 2019 in South Korea. We estimated that non-pharamaceutical measures reduced the immediate transmissibility by maximum of 34% for coronavirus disease 2019. Continuous efforts are needed for monitoring the transmissibility to optimize epidemic control.

We identified seasonal human coronaviruses, influenza viruses and rhinoviruses in exhaled breath and coughs of children and adults with acute respiratory illness. Surgical face masks significantly reduced detection of influenza virus RNA in respiratory droplets and coronavirus RNA in aerosols, with a trend toward reduced detection of coronavirus RN...

We report temporal patterns of viral shedding in 94 patients with laboratory-confirmed COVID-19 and modeled COVID-19 infectiousness profiles from a separate sample of 77 infector–infectee transmission pairs. We observed the highest viral load in throat swabs at the time of symptom onset, and inferred that infectiousness peaked on or before symptom...

International travel-related nonpharmaceutical interventions (NPIs), which can include traveler screening, travel restrictions, and border closures, often are included in national influenza pandemic preparedness plans. We performed systematic reviews to identify evidence for their effectiveness. We found 15 studies in total. Some studies reported t...

There were 3 influenza pandemics in the 20th century, and there has been 1 so far in the 21st century. Local, national, and international health authorities regularly update their plans for mitigating the next influenza pandemic in light of the latest available evidence on the effectiveness of various control measures in reducing transmission. Here...

Various interventions for live poultry markets (LPMs) have emerged to control outbreaks of avian influenza A(H7N9) virus in mainland China since March 2013. We assessed the effectiveness of various LPM interventions in reducing transmission of H7N9 virus across 5 annual waves during 2013-2018, especially in the final wave. With the exception of wav...