Barry L. Bayus

University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill | UNC · Kenan-Flagler Business School

Long-standing wisdom holds that building on ideas is beneficial for group creativity. We empirically verify this recommended practice. We analyse creativity sessions of nine groups of professionals tasked to synthesize new ideas into one final creative concept. Linkography and quantitative analysis are used for analysing the impact of building on i...

The rise of crowdsourcing platforms as a potential source for innovative ideas presents a challenge: How do you attract contributors to work on your particular problem? Past research has demonstrated the importance of well-crafted problem statements as a means to attract more innovative solutions. But what really goes into a problem statement that...

In this study, we consider the dynamics of crowdfunding project support over time. We propose that people support crowdfunding projects financially when they believe that their contribution will make an impact. Because perceptions of impact are positively related to goal proximity, we predict that support for a crowdfunding project will increase as...

We look into how local consumers receive foreign cultures embedded in imported movies against customized local cultures in domestic movies in the Korean movie market. We theorize that imported movies (mostly, American movies), which often have bigger budgets and superior moviemaking techniques, suffer from cultural discount in appealing to local (K...

An important barrier to commercializing innovations is the availability of early-stage funding. Given the difficulties that new ventures face in attracting financing from angel investors, banks and venture capital funds, some entrepreneurs are tapping into large, online communities of consumer-investors. Called “crowdfunding,” this relatively new f...

A project funded by the Institute for the Study of Business Markets to develop an understanding of the current state of business-to-business marketing and a research agenda for the field identified a lack of understanding of how the marketing function can or should best contribute to firms’ innovation efforts as the top priority. A workshop of seni...

Entrepreneurs are turning to crowdfunding as a way to finance their creative ideas. Crowdfunding involves relatively small contributions of many consumer-investors over a fixed time limit (generally a few weeks). In online crowdfunding communities, potential donors can see the level of support from other project backers as well as its timing before...

Several organizations have developed ongoing crowdsourcing communities that repeatedly collect ideas for new products and services from a large, dispersed “crowd” of nonexperts (consumers) over time. Despite its promises, little is known about the nature of an individual's ideation efforts in such an online community. Studying Dell's IdeaStorm comm...

Firms frequently compete across multiple segments. Such multimarket contact has been shown to deter aggressive competition, leading to what has been termed "mutual forbearance." Empirical support for this phenomenon derives mainly from studies of the direct effects of multimarket contact on a firm's decision variables. Our analysis extends the exis...

We introduce the concept of consumer options and empirically validate it in the context of event ticket pricing. We demonstrate that consumer options can protect consumers from the downside related to uncertain outcomes, and enhance seller profits by enabling superior market segmentation and increasing consumer willingness to pay. We examine ticket...

Firms frequently compete across multiple segments. Such multimarket contact has been shown to deter aggressive competition, leading to what has been termed "mutual forbearance." Empirical support for this phenomenon derives mainly from studies of the direct effects of multimarket contact on a firm's decision variables. Our analysis extends the exis...

Studying the US personal computer industry from its inception in 1974 through 1994, we address the following questions. What product technology strategies increase the survival chances of entrants into new, technologically dynamic industries? Does the effectiveness of these strategies differ by pre-entry experience? Does the effectiveness of these...

Sales in a new market generally follow a hockey-stick pattern: After commercialization, sales are very low for some time before there is a dramatic takeoff in growth. Reported sales takeoffs across products vary widely from a few years to several decades. Prior research identifies new firm entry or price declines as key factors that relate to the t...

Studying the US personal computer industry from its inception in 1974 through 1994, we address the following questions. What product strategies increase the survival chances of entrants into new, technologically dynamic industries? Does the effectiveness of these product strategies differ by pre-entry experience? Does the effectiveness of these pro...

Existing models of industry evolution describe a smooth pattern over time in which initial growth in the number of firms is followed by a sharp decrease due to a shakeout and an eventual stabilization as the industry reaches maturity. Although this model has been well accepted and supporting empirical finding holds true across a range of industries...

We investigate the role that entrepreneurial flexibility vs. pre-entry experience plays in determining the post-entry performance of firms that enter a new market. We hypothesize that in markets characterized by intense technological change, the organizational flexibility possessed by entrepreneurial denovo entrants helps them overcome their initia...

the 1 st ACAC conference, the 2003 Academy of Management and Strategic Management Society meetings and the 2 nd West Coast Symposium on Entrepreneurship. All remaining errors are ours.

We study how industry clockspeed, internal firm factors, such as product development, production, and inventory costs, and competitive factors determine a firm's optimal new-product introduction timing and product-quality decisions. We explicitly model market demand uncertainty, a firm's internal cost structure, and competition, using an infinite-h...

In the real world, buyer demand for a product can depend directly and indirectly on the marketing efforts of "other products" in different categories. The authors offer a behavioral rationale for the existence of the effects of "other products'" marketing efforts and propose a taxonomy of possible intercategory relationships. The discussion enables...

This article explores the relationships between innate consumer innovativeness, personal characteristics, and new-product adoption behavior. To do this, the authors analyze cross-sectional data from a household panel using a structural equation modeling approach. They also test for potential moderating effects using a two-stage least square estimat...

New industries are created from the pioneering activities of a few firms. These firms generally face great uncertainty and risk, but also stand to benefit from early mover advantages due to the preemption of resources. Based on an empirical analysis of a diverse set of consumer and industrial innovations introduced in the US over the past 100 years...

Based on data from firms in the personal computer industry, we study the effect of new product introductions on three key drivers of firm value: profit rate, profit-rate persistence, and firm size as reflected in asset growth. Consistent with our theoretical development, we find that new product introductions influence profit rate and size; however...

In this paper, we study competitive response to a product innovation. We consider the dynamic interaction between a "Defender" (a firm with a first generation product) and an "Attacker" (a firm with a second generation product). The second generation product entry decision of the Defender, as well as the pricing decisions of both firms, are analyze...

We consider customer influences on market structure, arguing that market structure should explain the extent to which any given set of market offerings are substitutes or complements. We describe recent additions to the market structure analysis literature and identify promising directions for new research in market structure analysis. Impressive a...

In contrast to the prevailing supply-side explanation that price decreases are the key driver of a sales takeoff, we argue that outward shifting supply and demand curves lead to market takeoff. Our fundamental idea is that sales in new markets are initially low because the first commercialized forms of new innovations are primitive. Then, as new fi...

Building on the Resource-Based View of the firm, we advance the idea that a firm's customer network can be a strategic asset. We suggest that network effects are a function of network size (i.e., installed customer base) and network strength (i.e., the marginal impact of a unit increase in network size on demand). We empirically study these network...

We empirically study the dynamics of R&D productivity by firm size over an industry's life cycle. To do this, we examine the relationship between R&D expenditures, firm size, and new product introductions at the firm level in the personal computer industry. In general, we find the following. (1) Although R&D productivity generally shows decreasing...

There is little question that new product innovation is a cornerstone to firm success. Particularly in technologically dynamic markets like personal computers, new products are central to long-term financial performance. However, exactly how new product introductions influence firm value is less clear. Based on data from firms in the personal compu...

ABSTRACT Despite the importance of product line management as a competitive tool, empirical research addressing the determinants of firm product line decisions is sparse. In this paper, we propose and empirically estimate a descriptive model of firm product line decisions in the personal computer industry over the period 1981-1992. Our model incorp...

The software industry practice of announcing new products well in advance of actual market availability has led to allegations that firms are intentionally engaging in vaporware. The possible predatory and anti-competitive implications of this behavior recently surfaced in the antitrust case United States v. Microsoft Corporation. Taking the perspe...

In this paper, we empirically estimate a descriptive model of firm product line decisions in the personal computer industry over the period 1981-1992. Our analysis incorporates the firm's initial choice of the direction of a product line change (i.e., the product line can be expanded, contracted, or maintained) and the conditional choice related to...

Considering the number of new product introductions and available product varieties today, the practice of product proliferation is visibly evident in many diverse industries. Given its prevalence in practice, understanding the determinants and implications of firm proliferation strategies clearly has important managerial relevance. Previous theore...

The software industry practice of announcing new products well in advance of actual market availability has led to allegations that firms are intentionally engaging in vaporware. The possible predatory and anticompetitive implications of this behavior recently surfaced in the antitrust case United States v. Microsoft Corporation. Taking the perspec...

The conventional wisdom that product lifetimes are shrinking has important implications for technology management and product planning. However, very limited empirical informationon this topic is available. In this paper, product lifetimes are directly measured as the time between product introduction and withdrawal. Statistical analyses of desktop...

FITTING DESIGN MANAGEMENT into crowded business school curricula is difficult. In this case, an interest in entrepreneurial issues and team teaching has resulted in a course on new product development co-taught by Richard Blackburn, a professor of management, and Barry Bayus, a professor of marketing. Lectures, discussion, and class exercises in th...

When pressed to accelerate a development effort, more than a few managers have responded in terms such as “Good, fast, cheap … Pick any two.” Time‐to‐market decisions clearly play an important role in determining the ultimate success or failure of a new product. Just as clearly, however, speed to market is not the sole determinant of success. The s...

When pressed to accelerate a development effort, more than a few managers have responded in terms such as “Good, fast, cheap … Pick any two.” Time-to-market decisions clearly play an important role in determining the ultimate success or failure of a new product. Just as clearly, however, speed to market is not the sole determinant of success. The s...

The authors address the following key questions: (1) When should a firm introduce a new product? (2) What should its performance level be? and (3) How do the decisions of a competing firm affect a firm's timing and product performance decisions? The authors present a detailed case study of the initial competitors in the personal digital assistant (...

The authors address the following key questions: (1) When should a firm introduce a new product? (2) What should its performance level be? and (3) How do the decisions of a competing firm affect a firm's timing and product performance decisions? The authors present a detailed case study of the initial competitors in the personal digital assistant (...

The authors use finite mixture distribution theory to develop a segmentation model for targeting potential consumer durable buyers. The model enables them to identify simultaneously durable replacer segments on the basis of household characteristics and product ages and determine which of the household characteristics are significant predictors of...

The authors use finite mixture distribution theory to develop a segmentation model for targeting potential consumer durable buyers. The model enables them to identify simultaneously durable replacer segments on the basis of household characteristics and product ages and determine which of the household characteristics are significant predictors of...

Relatively few studies have analytically examined incremental product and process R & D activities after a product is in the marketplace. In this paper, new product demand is modeled as a dynamic function of price and incremental product innovation, while process improvements influence costs. Optimal price, and product and process R & D expenditure...

This article takes a close look at the conventional wisdom which holds that product life cycles are getting shorter over time. Barry Bayus reviews several empirical studies directly or indirectly related to this phenomenon and discusses some empirical examples of life cycles for various products and brands in rapidly evolving categories. Generally...

Modelling efforts have generally assumed that learning involved with product development only affects a firm's cost function. However, post-introduction product improvements also have an impact on demand. In this paper a model for new product demand is developed by incorporating the dynamic effects of incremental product improvements and price. If...

Empirical evidence indicates that marketing planning is not as straightforward as the prescriptive literature suggests, and that it is a multidimensional process. As none of the empirical studies have taken a multidimensional process approach, Piercy and Morgan (1990) suggested a theoretical model as an initial attempt to understand this process. T...

Investigates approaches to product launch and elimination decisions in samples of UK and US companies, which is a gap which was identified in the literature. Identifies different approaches to tackling each of the decisions, and different approaches within each sample. There are also differences between the countries. These results provide new insi...

High-Definition Television promises to be the next generation of television. This technology has broad implications for consumer markets, as well as the underlying manufacturing, technology development, and R&D activities of firms. Under increasing pressure from various groups, the U.S. government must make major policy and funding decisions based...

In this article, an approach for identifying prime prospects and developing targeted marketing strategies for durables is presented and empirically illustrated using a set of major home appliances. The proposed approach combines probability models for identifying segments (as a function of household characteristics) and determining replacement pote...

An empirical study of marketing planning decision making has revealed few differences between samples of UK and US companies. Although few companies consider that their decision making is effective, there seems to be a reluctance to use decision making methods that are advocated in the literature.

Learning curve effects, aspects of consumer demand models (e.g., reservation price distributions, intertemporal utility maximizing behavior), and competitive activity are reasons which have been offered to explain why prices of new durables decline over time. This paper presents an alternative rationale based on the buying behavior for products wit...

Despite the dominant role of replacement purchases in many durable categories, previous research has not emphasized modeling replacement behavior. In this paper, we develop a descriptive model for replacement intentions based on variables associated with product and household characteristics, and empirically estimate this model with cross sectional...

It is widely believed that products are diffusing within the marketplace at an increasing pace. To empirically investigate this belief, diffusion model parameters are estimated for a large set of consumer durables in the home appliance industry, Multiple measures of diffusion rates are then computed and compared across products by year of introduct...

In the academic literature, the modelling of brand choice and switching behavior has a long history for frequently purchased packaged goods. Comparable efforts with consumer durable goods, however, are generally absent. This paper presents an application of the brand switching model proposed by Colombo and Morrison (1989) to a set of four major hom...

A study was conducted to develop a better understanding of the timing of consumer durable good replacement purchases. The demographic characteristics, attitudes and perceptions, and search behavior of consumers who replace a product during the early and late parts of its lifetime were examined. Results based on univariate and multivariate analyses...

A study was conducted to develop a better understanding of the timing of consumer durable good replacement purchases. The demographic characteristics, attitudes and perceptions, and search behavior of consumers who replace a product during the early and late parts of its lifetime were examined. Results based on univariate and multivariate analyses...

Modelling consumer preferences has a long history of interest in the literature. Several approaches that have been proposed consider consumer behaviour to be hierarchical: products are divided into groups and preferences within a group are modelled independently. An important question that arises in these efforts concerns the development of appropr...

This paper develops a model for situations in marketing and elsewhere in which an individual decision maker acquires multiattributed items that belong to several classes over time. The model captures the dynamic acquisition of heterogeneous items. Measurement and parameter estimation methods are described and illustrated with a small set of experim...

Predicting the future sales of new and established products is a critical activity for companies to be able to plan and control their operations. Forecasting consumer durable sales is an especially difficult and challenging task since the market- place is always changing. Barry Bayus, Saman Hong and Russell Labe present the concept of a market-driv...

In many established product categories, a large component of sales is due to the replacement of existing units. Because of the long expected lifetime of durables, replacement decisions can often be postponed by the consumer. In light of this, one marketing strategy for manufacturers of such products may be to accelerate the timing of product replac...

Estimating the sales potential of new products before an actual launch is a major problem confronting marketing and new products managers. Several modeling efforts for both new durable products and consumer package goods have been reported. An area which has received little explicit treatment, however, is that of new contingent product sales. A spe...

Casino management desires to make effective use of the scarce floor space available for slot machines. Tradeoffs among the key variables were found by combining managerial judgement and data analysis; these were then used to develop an interactive micro-computer model which analyzes slot machine configurations. Although we present a single applicat...

This paper presents research initiated in 1978 to examine the marketing effectiveness of the U.S. Navy recruiting program and to quantify the relationship between marketing efforts and enlistment achievements. The major component of the research was a one-year, controlled experiment in which levels of Navy recruiters and advertising were systematic...

Gambling activities in Atlantic City have been tremendously successful; yet there is room for improvement in current planning. An effort to allocate floor space to slot machines at the Sands Hotel and Casino combines management intuition with quantitative modeling in a deterministic simulation model used in tandem with empirical data to evaluate po...

The purpose of this dissertation is to develop a model which integrates the effects of marketing efforts and word of mouth. In this research, we study first purchases of high commitment products. We also limit our attention to aggregate models rather than models of individual consumer behavior. in addition, we do not study the diffusion of informat...

The future of the Guaranteed Student Loan Program is currently under debate in the federal government; yet no formal model of this complex program has been constructed. Following an outline of a modeling process from the literature, we have taken the first steps in this direction. When the limited available data is placed in a simple econometric mo...

Using a unique firm-level longitudinal data set of twenty-two diverse consumer and industrial industries started over the past century, we empirically consider whether firm and industry characteristics affect the relationship between firm survival and entry timing. While we find no survival advantage of being the first (or second) entrant into a ne...

Thesis (Ph. D.)--University of Pennsylvania, 1984. Includes bibliographical references (leaves 295-316). Photocopy.