Baltasar Manzano

Baltasar Manzano
University of Vigo | UVIGO

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43
Publications
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775
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Publications

Publications (43)
Article
We assess the extent to which the implementation of Vision 2030 policies enhances the Saudi economy’s resilience to oil shocks. Using a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model that captures the country’s economic diversification policies, we build a resilience index based on impulse responses to shocks. The policies considered have two opposit...
Article
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Saudi Arabia’s Vision 2030 includes the creation of a value-added tax (VAT), the enactment of domestic energy price reforms, and the deployment of renewable energy. We assess these policy measures’ effects on macroeconomic variables using a dynamic general equilibrium model of the Saudi economy. We find that energy price reforms deliver long-run we...
Article
Energy transitions are complex processes difficult to characterize using a small number of features. We provide a simple framework for the energy transition, pointing out that some scenarios have a higher probability. The document is organized around four key propositions: (i) the current energy transition is driven by policies rather than by techn...
Article
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In this paper, we examine the similarities and the differences between two global problems, the coronavirus pandemic and climate change, and the extent to which the experience with the COVID-19 pandemic can be of use for tackling climate change. We show that both problems share the same microeconomic foundations, involving an overprovision of a glo...
Article
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This paper uses a new dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model of the Saudi Arabian economy, K-DSGE, developed by KAPSARC researchers. The model is being employed primarily to assess the impact of the Vision 2030 economic reforms. It is also well suited to assessing the macroeconomic impact of the Kingdom’s public policies in general, as well a...
Article
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Meeting climate change goals requires both the decarbonization of the electricity sector and the electrification of much of the rest of the economy. However, the electricity sector is navigating major disruptions that are changing the regulatory and business landscape. This article focuses on the question of whether these changes would help or hind...
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We study the dynamics of pollution in an economic growth model with non-homothetic preferences. We characterize the forces that may drive the evolution of the income-pollution relationship along the development process. In particular, we disentangle the standard accumulation mechanism, which determines the intertemporal allocation of pollution, fro...
Presentation
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Despite all the developments in real options and stochastic oil prices modeling, the upstream oil industry still uses smooth price scenarios in its investment decision models. We model situation by considering a single field development by an International Oil Company (IOC).The IOC computes a 10% after tax Net Present Value (NPV) at a flat price sc...
Article
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In 2016, the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia (KSA) announced its Vision 2030 strategic plan incorporating major changes to the economic structure of the country, including an intention to deploy 9.5 GW of renewable energy in an effort to reduce the penetration of oil in the electricity generation system. This paper assesses the macroeconomic impact of such...
Article
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Energy policymakers often attempt to shape their countries' energy mix, rather than leave it purely to market forces. By calibrating and simulating a Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium (DSGE) model, this paper analyzes the primary fossil fuel mix in the USA and compares it to Germany and the UK, given the different evolution of the mixes and th...
Article
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Renewable energy policy focuses on supporting the deployment of renewable power generators so as to reduce their costs through scale economies and technological learning. It is expected that, once cost parity with fossil fuel generation is achieved, a transition towards renewable power should continue without the need for further renewable energy s...
Article
Economic agents have varying expectations on oil price fluctuations that play an important role in determining the timing and magnitude of oil price shocks.
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The Great Recession has implied a strong increase of the unemployment rate in Spain that surpassed 25% in 2012, the highest rate in western economies in that year At the same time, the assessment of political situation has greatly deteriorated The goal of this paper is to study how the assessment of political situation has moved along the business...
Article
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Energy security is becoming an increasingly important issue in the energy domain. However, from an economic point of view, many questions related to energy security are still unclear: from its definition and the costs associated to insecurity, to the design of policies intended to reduce it. In this paper we first illustrate why the security of ene...
Article
Green tax reforms have become an important tool not only in protecting the environment but also in bringing about a more efficient tax system. However, reforms often imply accepting sacrifices in the short-run and bring about the risk of potential political opposition. Within this framework, the debate on whether to implement green tax reforms in o...
Article
Using a dynamic general equilibrium model, we explore the role of habit formation when analyzing green tax reforms under the double dividend hypothesis. We assume increases in energy taxes and adjust capital taxation in a revenue-neutral framework to evaluate the effects on welfare. Since the existence of an environmental dividend is uncontroversia...
Article
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Using a new Keynesian, stochastic, dynamic model of a small open monetary economy that imports oil and applying it to the Spanish economy, this paper addresses the question of why the effects of oil shocks from the mid-1980's on output and inflation were smaller. We depart from the previous literature on this topic by simulating a theoretical model...
Article
This paper proposes a multi-regional, general equilibrium model with capital accumulation to analyze the economic impact of the spatial distribution of public capital formation. This model is calibrated and solved by using data for the Spanish economy in order to simulate some comparative dynamic exercises of fiscal policy changes. These analyses i...
Article
The international oil market has been very volatile over the past three decades. In industrialized economies, especially in Europe, taxes represent a large fraction of oil prices and governments do not seem to react to oil price shocks by using oil taxes strategically. The aim of this paper is to analyze optimal oil taxation in a dynamic stochastic...
Article
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Optimal fiscal policy is indeterminate in a dynamic and stochastic environment. The complete characterization of the fiscal policy requires the use of identification constraints. In the literature either capital taxes or debt have been restricted to be not contingent on the state of nature. We propose a different type of identification constraints...
Article
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En este trabajo se cuantifican los efectos de la inversión pública española en infraestructuras sobre el bienestar social. Para ello se calibra con datos de la economía española un modelo de equilibrio general dinámico de agente representativo, donde la inversión pública se financia con impuestos distorsionantes. El stock de infraestructuras públic...
Article
Full-text available
En este trabajo se cuantifican los efectos de la inversión pública española en infraestructuras sobre el bienestar social. Para ello se calibra con datos de la economía española un modelo de equilibrio general dinámico de agente representativo, donde la inversión pública se financia con impuestos distorsionantes. El stock de infraestructuras públic...
Article
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En este trabajo se presenta el estado actual de conocimiento del problema de la política fiscal óptima, así como hacia dónde se dirigen las líneas de investigación en este área. En particular se describen los principales resultados derivados de cómo un gobierno debería ejecutar la política fiscal óptima en una gran variedad de contextos. Destacamos...
Article
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This paper analyzes the effects of oil price shocks on the characteristics of the business cycle and on welfare in a small open economy, such as in the case of the Spanish economy. The results show the ability of the model to reproduce the business cycle path of the Spanish economy, especially in those periods when shocks in the price of oil were m...
Article
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En este trabajo utilizamos un modelo de equilibrio general dinámico para cuantificar el coste de bienestar del sistema impositivo español. Calibraremos el modelo neoclásico de crecimiento para replicar algunas características relevantes de la economía española, poniendo especial interés en las relativas a los tipos efectivos de gravamen del sistema...
Article
The aim of this paper is to analyze the optimal fiscal policy problem including public investment as an endogenous decision. We set a general equilibrium model, calibrated with Spanish data, where the public capital stock is an additional input. We obtain that the Spanish public investment/output ratio is slightly below the optimal level. The resul...
Article
We introduce a new hybrid approach to joint estimation of Value at Risk (VaR) and Expected Shortfall (ES) for high quantiles of return distributions. We investigate the relative performance of VaR and ES models using daily returns for sixteen stock market indices (eight from developed and eight from emerging markets) prior to and during the 2008 fi...
Article
Tax structure, public capital and business cycle. The aim of this paper is to analize the potential effects that different tax and public invest- ment policies would have on the business cycle features. We set a general equilibrium model, calibrated with Spanish economy data, where public capital stock is an additional input. The use of different t...
Article
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JOSÉ Mª MARTÍN-MORENO (*) Universidad de Vigo y rede Los efectos de cambios en los precios de la energía en general y del petróleo en particu-lar sobre la actividad económica han despertado el interés de los economistas desde ha-ce décadas [véase, por ejemplo, Hamilton (1983) y Olson (1988)]. En gran medida, esto se debe a que la evidencia empírica...
Article
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This paper analyzes the effects of oil price shocks on the business cycle of the EU-15 countries using a standard dynamic general equilibrium model for a small open economy in which oil is included as an imported productive input. The results show that oil shocks can account for a significant percentage of GDP fluctuations in many of those countrie...

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