Babatunde Abiodun

University of Cape Town | UCT · Department of Environmental and Geographical Science

The Gulf of Guinea (GoG) is highly vulnerable to sea level rise, with projections indicating a significant increase in permanently inundated land by 2100, ranging from 1,458.1 to 4,331.7 km². This study evaluates the severity of potential coastal inundation in the GoG by comparing sea level rise projections from eight reliable CMIP6 models with his...

We analyze long-term extreme events in daily precipitation for the period of 1950–2005 and future projections from 2006 to 2100 based on representative concentration pathways (RCP8.5) over West Africa, including twelve major cities of the subregion. The study uses two datasets from the Coordinated Regional Downscaling Experiments (CORDEX) and NASA...

Drought is one of the most devastating threats to the livelihoods of the southern African population, who mainly rely on rain‐fed agriculture for income. Previous studies have highlighted that the Botswana High influences drought over the region; however, its influence on the spatial modes of drought remains unknown. This study examines the spatiot...

Solar climate intervention refers to a group of methods for reducing climate risks associated with anthropogenic warming by reflecting sunlight. Marine cloud brightening (MCB), one such approach, proposes to inject sea‐salt aerosol into one or more regional marine boundary layer to increase marine cloud reflectivity. Here, we assess the potential i...

The economy of Central African countries strongly depends on rain-fed agriculture and hydropower generation. However, most countries in this subregion do not yet have the irrigation technologies that are already applied in many more advanced nations, which further exposes them to the serious risk of severe drought caused by global warming. This stu...

Several studies have shown that climate change may enhance the severity of droughts over the Western Cape (South Africa) in the future, but there is a dearth of information on how to reduce the impacts of climate change on water yields. This study investigates the extent to which land-use changes can reduce the projected impacts of climate change o...

The Sudan-Sahel region has long been vulnerable to environmental change. However, the intensification of global warming has led to unprecedented challenges that require a detailed understanding of climate change for this region. This study analyzes the impacts of climate change for Burkina Faso using ten climate indices that are highly relevant to...

This study examines the impacts of 1.5 °C and 2.0 °C global warming levels on the characteristics of four major drought modes over Eastern Africa in the future under two climate forcing scenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5). The droughts were quantified using two drought indices: the standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index (SPEI) and the standa...

The West African Westerly Jet (WAWJ) plays a vital role in West African precipitation by enhancing moisture transport into West Africa. However, little is known about the variability and intensity of this moisture transport by WAWJ. Global climate models - which are essential tools in understanding the dynamics, characteristics, and influence of c...

This study investigates the diurnal variability of surface solar radiation (SSR) over Reunion, and how it is affected by synoptic and intraseasonal climate variability. Using a diurnal classification based on SARAH-E satellite SSR data at 5km resolution, several key features of SSR variability are revealed. Spatially, SSR anomalies are larger in th...

Climate model evaluation presents a crucial pathway into the investigation of the simulation of future climate. It presents the only lens through which the future states of the climate of the planet can be explored. In this study, reference datasets including reanalysis products have been used to demonstrate the climatological annual migration of t...

Stratospheric aerosol injection (SAI) is the theoretical deployment of sulphate particles into the stratosphere to reflect incoming solar radiation and trigger a cooling impact at the Earth’s surface. This study assessed the potential impact of SAI geoengineering on temperature and precipitation extremes over South Africa (SAF) and its climatic zon...

Rainfall onset date (ROD) influences farmer planting decisions, yet there is a dearth of information on the extent to which ROD influences crop yield. This study assesses the effect of ROD on the yield of four crops (Maize, millet, rice, and sorghum) in Ghana. It uses crop yields from the Ministry of Food and Agriculture (MoFA) and the Food and Agr...

This study examines the potential impacts of climate change on electricity demand in Niger. Fourteen (14) regional climate simulations from the Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment (CORDEX) were analyzed for the study. The study evaluates the ability of the simulations to reproduce the present-day climate variables over Niger, builds...

Reanalysis is well known for reliable reproduction of weather and climate. However, there is a dearth of information on the reliability of reanalysis in reproducing rainfall distribution over mountains during weak-synoptic conditions, when the deep convections are mostly triggered by small-scale circulations that are not usually explicitly resolved...

This study investigates the capability and sensitivity of a variable-grid global atmospheric model (called the Model for Prediction Across Scales-Atmosphere; MPAS-A, hereafter MPAS) in simulating the characteristics of tropical cyclones (TCs) over the South-West Indian Ocean, using two historically significant TC events (i.e., TCs Idai and Kenneth)...

The quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) is a global climate phenomenon of repeating cycles of tropical stratosphere winds, reversing direction from eastward to westward roughly every 14 months. However, unlike in Eastern Africa and India where QBO effect has been well studied, knowledge about its influence on West African rainfall and its variability...

The impacts of large scale climate variabilities on the solar energy resource are widely investigated around the world, however their effects are not yet clear for Mascarene Islands (southwest Indian Ocean, SWIO) and needs to be addressed. In this study, surface solar radiation (SSR) classification and anomalies at the diurnal scale from SARAH-E sa...

The Botswana High is an important component of the regional atmospheric circulation during austral spring, summer and autumn. While the high tends to be stronger during El Niño and weaker during La Niña, its direct response to El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) remains unknown. To that end, a variable resolution global climate model (Model Predict...

Over the last 150 years, there has been a dramatic increase in research focusing on droughts in every part of the world, due to their negative impacts on multiple sectors, the functioning of ecosystems and human wellbeing. However, our understanding of the long-term trends of drought-related research remains limited. Therefore, this study is aimed...

Most socio-economic activities in Africa depend on the continent’s river basins, but effectively managing drought risks over the basins in response to climate change remains a big challenge. While studies have shown that the stratospheric aerosol injection (SAI) intervention could mitigate temperature-related climate change impacts over Africa, the...

The Botswana High is a prominent mid-tropospheric system that modulates rainfall over subtropical southern Africa, but the capability of a global climate model (GCM) to reproduce it remains unknown. This study examines the capability of a GCM with quasi-uniform resolution (Model Prediction Across Scales, hereafter MPAS) in simulating the characteri...

Renewable energy is key for the development of African countries, and knowing the best location for the implementation of solar and wind energy projects is important within this context. The purpose of this study is to assess the impact of climate change on solar and wind energy potential over Africa under low end (RCP2.6) and high end (RCP8.5) emi...

Water scarcity is amongst the major challenges threatening smallholder sheep production in subsistence-oriented communal farms in dryland areas. Local contextual factors are a prerequisite for effective policy development and optimisation of water resources management for smallholder sheep production. Two-hundred and fifty-two structured questionna...

Water scarcity is among key the challenges facing sheep production in the arid and semiarid areas, and is predicted to worsen in future. Despite sheep in dry areas being capable of surviving relatively long periods with little water, deficiency of this essential nutrient produces lightweight carcasses and dark, dry and less tender meat. Responses t...

This study evaluates the possible impacts of climate change on Surface Solar Radiation (SSR), as a renewable energy resource, in Southern Africa (SA). Performance of climate models in reproducing the mean states and long-term trend of SSR are assessed by validating five Regional Climate Models (RCM) that participated in the Coordinated Regional Dow...

Cut-off lows (COLs) cause hazardous weather but also play a crucial role in the annual rainfall of the Western Cape, especially during a drought year. However, there is a dearth of information on the capability of atmospheric models to reproduce the characteristics of COLs over this region. This study evaluates the capability of a regional climate...

Cut‐off lows (COLs) over Southern Africa are known for their extreme rainfall, but the reliable prediction of COL rainfall remains a challenge because of complex interactions with topography. As there is a dearth of information on these interactions over this region, this study examines the influence of topography on the characteristics of COLs ove...

Abstract The present study evaluates the performance of a Subseasonal to Seasonal (S2S) model (called The China Meteorological Administration) in simulating rainfall onset dates (RODs) over West Africa. Using two ROD definitions, we compared the model's ROD at six lead‐time forecasts (10, 20, 30, 40, 50, and 60 days) with the observed ROD from sate...

This study investigates possible impacts of four global warming levels (GWLs: GWL1.5, GWL2.0, GWL2.5, and GWL3.0) on drought characteristics over Niger River basin (NRB) and Volta River basin (VRB). Two drought indices—Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) and Standardized Precipitation‐Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI)—were employed in characterizi...

The El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is a major driver of southern Africa drought, but the nonlinearity of ENSO variation inhibits accurate drought prediction. While studies have identified multiple sea surface temperature (SST) patterns associated with ENSO, most drought predictions over southern Africa are still based on only two patterns. Thi...

This study examines the potential impacts of specific global warming levels (GWLs) on extreme rainfall events in southern Africa and over 12 major cities in the region. We analysed two regional climate simulation datasets: the Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment (CORDEX) and the NASA Earth eXchange Global Daily Downscaled Projection...

This study classifies maximum air temperature patterns over West Africa into six groups and evaluates the capability of a global climate model (Community Atmospheric Model version 5.1; CAM) to simulate them. We analyzed 45-year (1961–2005) multi-ensemble (50 members) simulations from CAM and compared the results with those of the Climate Research U...

Many West African countries are plagued with poor electricity. The abundance of solar irradiance over the region makes solar energy an attractive solution to the problem, but there is a dearth of information on how the ongoing solar dimming and global warming may alter the solar energy over the region in the future at various global warming levels....

Cut-Off Lows (COLs) are known for heavy rainfall in the Western Cape, but there is a dearth of information on COL rainfall characteristics over the Cape. To bridge this gap we analysed three types of datasets (observation, satellite and reanalysis) to study the characteristics of COLs that occurred in the vicinity of the Western Cape over 37 years...

This study investigates the potential impacts of climate change on wind power over West Africa under various global warming levels. For the study, we analysed eleven multi-model multi-ensemble simulation datasets from the Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment (CORDEX) project. The model simulations for the present-day climate were com...

Reliable drought projections are crucial for the effective managements of future drought risk. Most of the existing drought projections over Southern Africa are based on precipitation alone, neglecting the influence of potential evapotranspiration (PET). The present study shows that inclusion of PET may alter the magnitude and robustness of the dro...

The impact on society of extreme temperature events is enormous. This study examines the temporal evolution and trends in mean temperatures (minimum temperature, TN; and maximum temperature, TX) and warm extremes in Nigeria as well as in three regions in Nigeria (Guinea, Savanna, and Sahel) using homogenized daily TN and TX for the period 1971–2012...

In the second part of this study, possible impacts of climate change on Surface Solar Radiation (SSR) in Southern Africa (SA) are evaluated. We use outputs from 20 regional climate simulations from five Regional Climate Models (RCM) that participate in the Coordinated Regional Downscal-ing Experiment program over the African domain (CORDEX-Africa)...

The devastating socio‐economic impacts of recent droughts in the Western Cape have intensified the quest for future drought mitigation measures. While ongoing global warming may increase atmospheric evaporative demand and worsen drought conditions, most studies on drought in the Western Cape have overlooked the role of potential evapotranspiration...

Tropical cyclones remain a major threat to the lives, property and economy of communities around the South West Indian ocean (SWIO), notably Southern Africa and Madagascar. This study uses the weather research forecast (WRF) model to perform a series of simulations for tropical cyclone Enawo with the aim of investigating the effect of an increase o...

Limiting global warming to 1.5 °C and 2.0 °C above pre-industrial levels has been proposed as a way to reduce the impacts of climate change globally. Formulating reliable policies to adapt to these warming levels requires an understanding of the impacts at regional and national scales. The present study examines the potential impacts of the differe...

Weather and climate numerical models have been in use in South Africa for many decades, both in operational and research mode. 1 All the models currently in use for operational purposes in the country were developed in developed countries. South African scientists started participating in the development or improvement of weather and climate numeri...

Weather and climate numerical models have been in use in South Africa for many decades, both in operational and research mode. 1 All the models currently in use for operational purposes in the country were developed in developed countries. South African scientists started participating in the development or improvement of weather and climate numeri...

The 2009–2010 El Niño event was a moderately strong Central Pacific type ENSO and, as such, expected to lead to a substantial drought over southern Africa during austral summer. However, many parts of the region experienced average to well above average rainfall during this season. Given that seasonal forecasting skill tends only to be good during...

This study investigates possible impacts of four global warming levels (GWLs: GWL1.5, GWL2.0, GWL2.5, and GWL3.0) on drought characteristics over Niger River basin (NRB) and Volta River basin (VRB). Two drought indices-Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) and Standardized Precipitation-Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI)-were employed in characterizi...

This study examines how afforestation in West Africa could influence extreme precipitation over the region, with a focus on widespread extreme rainfall events (WEREs) over the afforestation area. Two regional climate models (RegCM and WRF) were applied to simulate the present-day climate (1971–2000) and future climate (2031–2060, under IPCC RCP 4.5...

This study investigates how a large-scale reforestation in Savanna (8–12°N, 20°W–20°E) could affect drought patterns over West Africa in the future (2031–2060) under the RCP4.5 scenario. Simulations from two regional climate models (RegCM4 and WRF) were analyzed for the study. The study first evaluated the performance of both RCMs in simulating the...

In the latter part of our abstract, we mistakenly interchanged the position of two words: 'Sahel' and 'Guinea'. The sentence should read 'It also encourages a decrease in the LRS over the Sahel zone and an increase in LRS over the Guinea zone but produces opposite results under RCP8.5' instead of 'It also encourages a decrease in the LRS over the G...

We examine the impact of +1.5°C and +2°C global warming levels above pre-industrial levels on Consecutive dry days (CDD) and Consecutive wet days (CWD), two key indicators for extreme precipitation and seasonal drought. This is done using climate projections from a multi-model ensemble of 25 regional climate model (RCM) simulations. The RCMs take b...

This study examines the potential impacts of 1.5 °C and 2 °C global warming (GWL15 and GWL20) on rainfall onset dates (RODs), rainfall cessation dates (RCDs), and length of the rainy season (LRS) in West Africa under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios. Nineteen multi-model multi-ensemble simulation datasets from eight regional climate models that particip...

West Africa has been afflicted by droughts since the declining rains of the 1970s. Therefore, this study examines the characteristics of drought over the Niger River Basin (NRB), investigates the influence of the drought on the river flow, and projects the impacts of future climate change on drought. A combination of observation data and regional c...

In recent times, Ibadan has been experiencing an increase in mean temperature which appears to be linked to anthropogenic global warming. Previous studies have indicated that the warming may be accompanied by changes in extreme events. This study examined trends in mean and extreme temperatures over Ibadan during 1971–2012 at annual and seasonal sc...

This study examines the impacts of climate change on characteristics of extreme precipitation events over four African coastal cities (Cape Town, Maputo, Lagos and Port Said) under two future climate scenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5). Fourteen indices were used to characterise extreme precipitation and 16 multi-model simulation datasets from the Coordi...

The present study examines trends in extreme temperature absolute indices [warmest day (TXx), coldest day (TXn), warmest night (TNx) and coldest night (TNn)] using the newly homogenized daily minimum and maximum temperature series from 21 stations in Nigeria for the period 1971–2012. The indices provide an understanding of the characteristics of ch...

This study examines the characteristics of drought in the Volta River Basin (VRB), investigates the influence of drought on the streamflow, and projects the impacts of future climate change on the drought. A combination of observation data and regional climate simulations of past and future climates (1970–2013, 2046–2065, and 2081–2100) were analyz...

This study presents the spatial-temporal structure of droughts in West Africa and evaluates the capability of CORDEX regional climate models in simulating the droughts. The study characterize droughts with the standardized evapo-transpiration index (SPEI) computed using the monthly rainfall and temperature data from the Climatic Research Unit (CRU)...

This study assesses the capability of regional climate models (RCMs) in simulating the characteristics of widespread extreme rainfall events over the East Coast of South Africa. Simulations of nine RCMs from the Coordinated Regional Downscaling Experiment (CORDEX) were analyzed for the study. All the simulations cover 12 years (1996–2008). Using th...

The modelling of the changes taking place in our climate has developed into a sophisticated research area, and the predictions made by these models are becoming more and more reliable. In this chapter, some of the technical aspects of modelling are given together with a description of the main types of models currently being used. An evaluation of...

We find no evidence that the delayed onset of the wet season over Nigeria during April–May 2015 was made more likely by anthropogenic influences or anomalous sea surface temperatures.