Babatunde Abiodun

Babatunde Abiodun
University of Cape Town | UCT · Department of Environmental and Geographical Science

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99
Publications
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Publications

Publications (99)
Article
Full-text available
This study investigates the capability and sensitivity of a variable-grid global atmospheric model (called the Model for Prediction Across Scales-Atmosphere; MPAS-A, hereafter MPAS) in simulating the characteristics of tropical cyclones (TCs) over the South-West Indian Ocean, using two historically significant TC events (i.e., TCs Idai and Kenneth)...
Article
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The quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) is a global climate phenomenon of repeating cycles of tropical stratosphere winds, reversing direction from eastward to westward roughly every 14 months. However, unlike in Eastern Africa and India where QBO effect has been well studied, knowledge about its influence on West African rainfall and its variability...
Conference Paper
Full-text available
The impacts of large scale climate variabilities on the solar energy resource are widely investigated around the world, however their effects are not yet clear for Mascarene Islands (southwest Indian Ocean, SWIO) and needs to be addressed. In this study, surface solar radiation (SSR) classification and anomalies at the diurnal scale from SARAH-E sa...
Article
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The Botswana High is an important component of the regional atmospheric circulation during austral spring, summer and autumn. While the high tends to be stronger during El Niño and weaker during La Niña, its direct response to El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) remains unknown. To that end, a variable resolution global climate model (Model Predict...
Article
Over the last 150 years, there has been a dramatic increase in research focusing on droughts in every part of the world, due to their negative impacts on multiple sectors, the functioning of ecosystems and human wellbeing. However, our understanding of the long-term trends of drought-related research remains limited. Therefore, this study is aimed...
Article
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Most socio-economic activities in Africa depend on the continent’s river basins, but effectively managing drought risks over the basins in response to climate change remains a big challenge. While studies have shown that the stratospheric aerosol injection (SAI) intervention could mitigate temperature-related climate change impacts over Africa, the...
Article
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The Botswana High is a prominent mid-tropospheric system that modulates rainfall over subtropical southern Africa, but the capability of a global climate model (GCM) to reproduce it remains unknown. This study examines the capability of a GCM with quasi-uniform resolution (Model Prediction Across Scales, hereafter MPAS) in simulating the characteri...
Article
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Renewable energy is key for the development of African countries, and knowing the best location for the implementation of solar and wind energy projects is important within this context. The purpose of this study is to assess the impact of climate change on solar and wind energy potential over Africa under low end (RCP2.6) and high end (RCP8.5) emi...
Article
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Water scarcity is amongst the major challenges threatening smallholder sheep production in subsistence-oriented communal farms in dryland areas. Local contextual factors are a prerequisite for effective policy development and optimisation of water resources management for smallholder sheep production. Two-hundred and fifty-two structured questionna...
Article
Water scarcity is among key the challenges facing sheep production in the arid and semiarid areas, and is predicted to worsen in future. Despite sheep in dry areas being capable of surviving relatively long periods with little water, deficiency of this essential nutrient produces lightweight carcasses and dark, dry and less tender meat. Responses t...
Article
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Cut-off lows (COLs) cause hazardous weather but also play a crucial role in the annual rainfall of the Western Cape, especially during a drought year. However, there is a dearth of information on the capability of atmospheric models to reproduce the characteristics of COLs over this region. This study evaluates the capability of a regional climate...
Article
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Cut‐off lows (COLs) over Southern Africa are known for their extreme rainfall, but the reliable prediction of COL rainfall remains a challenge because of complex interactions with topography. As there is a dearth of information on these interactions over this region, this study examines the influence of topography on the characteristics of COLs ove...
Article
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Abstract The present study evaluates the performance of a Subseasonal to Seasonal (S2S) model (called The China Meteorological Administration) in simulating rainfall onset dates (RODs) over West Africa. Using two ROD definitions, we compared the model's ROD at six lead‐time forecasts (10, 20, 30, 40, 50, and 60 days) with the observed ROD from sate...
Article
This study investigates possible impacts of four global warming levels (GWLs: GWL1.5, GWL2.0, GWL2.5, and GWL3.0) on drought characteristics over Niger River basin (NRB) and Volta River basin (VRB). Two drought indices – Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) and Standardized Precipitation‐Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) – were employed in characte...
Article
Full-text available
The El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is a major driver of southern Africa drought, but the nonlinearity of ENSO variation inhibits accurate drought prediction. While studies have identified multiple sea surface temperature (SST) patterns associated with ENSO, most drought predictions over southern Africa are still based on only two patterns. Thi...
Article
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This study classifies maximum air temperature patterns over West Africa into six groups and evaluates the capability of a global climate model (Community Atmospheric Model version 5.1; CAM) to simulate them. We analyzed 45-year (1961–2005) multi-ensemble (50 members) simulations from CAM and compared the results with those of the Climate Research U...
Article
Many West African countries are plagued with poor electricity. The abundance of solar irradiance over the region makes solar energy an attractive solution to the problem, but there is a dearth of information on how the ongoing solar dimming and global warming may alter the solar energy over the region in the future at various global warming levels....
Article
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This study examines the potential impacts of specific global warming levels (GWLs) on extreme rainfall events in southern Africa and over 12 major cities in the region. We analysed two regional climate simulation datasets: the Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment (CORDEX) and the NASA Earth eXchange Global Daily Downscaled Projection...
Article
Cut-Off Lows (COLs) are known for heavy rainfall in the Western Cape, but there is a dearth of information on COL rainfall characteristics over the Cape. To bridge this gap we analysed three types of datasets (observation, satellite and reanalysis) to study the characteristics of COLs that occurred in the vicinity of the Western Cape over 37 years...
Article
Full-text available
This study investigates the potential impacts of climate change on wind power over West Africa under various global warming levels. For the study, we analysed eleven multi-model multi-ensemble simulation datasets from the Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment (CORDEX) project. The model simulations for the present-day climate were com...
Article
Full-text available
Reliable drought projections are crucial for the effective managements of future drought risk. Most of the existing drought projections over Southern Africa are based on precipitation alone, neglecting the influence of potential evapotranspiration (PET). The present study shows that inclusion of PET may alter the magnitude and robustness of the dro...
Article
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The impact on society of extreme temperature events is enormous. This study examines the temporal evolution and trends in mean temperatures (minimum temperature, TN; and maximum temperature, TX) and warm extremes in Nigeria as well as in three regions in Nigeria (Guinea, Savanna, and Sahel) using homogenized daily TN and TX for the period 1971–2012...
Article
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In the second part of this study, possible impacts of climate change on Surface Solar Radiation (SSR) in Southern Africa (SA) are evaluated. We use outputs from 20 regional climate simulations from five Regional Climate Models (RCM) that participate in the Coordinated Regional Downscal-ing Experiment program over the African domain (CORDEX-Africa)...
Preprint
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Tropical cyclones remain a major threat to the lives, property and economy of communities around the South West Indian ocean (SWIO), notably Southern Africa and Madagascar. This study uses the weather research forecast (WRF) model to perform a series of simulations for tropical cyclone Enawo with the aim of investigating the effect of an increase o...
Article
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Limiting global warming to 1.5 °C and 2.0 °C above pre-industrial levels has been proposed as a way to reduce the impacts of climate change globally. Formulating reliable policies to adapt to these warming levels requires an understanding of the impacts at regional and national scales. The present study examines the potential impacts of the differe...
Article
Full-text available
Weather and climate numerical models have been in use in South Africa for many decades, both in operational and research mode. 1 All the models currently in use for operational purposes in the country were developed in developed countries. South African scientists started participating in the development or improvement of weather and climate numeri...
Preprint
Full-text available
Weather and climate numerical models have been in use in South Africa for many decades, both in operational and research mode. 1 All the models currently in use for operational purposes in the country were developed in developed countries. South African scientists started participating in the development or improvement of weather and climate numeri...
Article
Full-text available
The devastating socio‐economic impacts of recent droughts in the Western Cape have intensified the quest for future drought mitigation measures. While ongoing global warming may increase atmospheric evaporative demand and worsen drought conditions, most studies on drought in the Western Cape have overlooked the role of potential evapotranspiration...
Article
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The 2009–2010 El Niño event was a moderately strong Central Pacific type ENSO and, as such, expected to lead to a substantial drought over southern Africa during austral summer. However, many parts of the region experienced average to well above average rainfall during this season. Given that seasonal forecasting skill tends only to be good during...
Article
This study investigates possible impacts of four global warming levels (GWLs: GWL1.5, GWL2.0, GWL2.5, and GWL3.0) on drought characteristics over Niger River basin (NRB) and Volta River basin (VRB). Two drought indices-Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) and Standardized Precipitation-Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI)-were employed in characterizi...
Article
Full-text available
This study examines how afforestation in West Africa could influence extreme precipitation over the region, with a focus on widespread extreme rainfall events (WEREs) over the afforestation area. Two regional climate models (RegCM and WRF) were applied to simulate the present-day climate (1971–2000) and future climate (2031–2060, under IPCC RCP 4.5...
Article
Full-text available
This study investigates how a large-scale reforestation in Savanna (8–12°N, 20°W–20°E) could affect drought patterns over West Africa in the future (2031–2060) under the RCP4.5 scenario. Simulations from two regional climate models (RegCM4 and WRF) were analyzed for the study. The study first evaluated the performance of both RCMs in simulating the...
Article
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In the latter part of our abstract, we mistakenly interchanged the position of two words: 'Sahel' and 'Guinea'. The sentence should read 'It also encourages a decrease in the LRS over the Sahel zone and an increase in LRS over the Guinea zone but produces opposite results under RCP8.5' instead of 'It also encourages a decrease in the LRS over the G...
Article
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We examine the impact of +1.5°C and +2°C global warming levels above pre-industrial levels on Consecutive dry days (CDD) and Consecutive wet days (CWD), two key indicators for extreme precipitation and seasonal drought. This is done using climate projections from a multi-model ensemble of 25 regional climate model (RCM) simulations. The RCMs take b...
Article
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This study examines the potential impacts of 1.5 °C and 2 °C global warming (GWL15 and GWL20) on rainfall onset dates (RODs), rainfall cessation dates (RCDs), and length of the rainy season (LRS) in West Africa under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios. Nineteen multi-model multi-ensemble simulation datasets from eight regional climate models that particip...
Article
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West Africa has been afflicted by droughts since the declining rains of the 1970s. Therefore, this study examines the characteristics of drought over the Niger River Basin (NRB), investigates the influence of the drought on the river flow, and projects the impacts of future climate change on drought. A combination of observation data and regional c...
Article
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In recent times, Ibadan has been experiencing an increase in mean temperature which appears to be linked to anthropogenic global warming. Previous studies have indicated that the warming may be accompanied by changes in extreme events. This study examined trends in mean and extreme temperatures over Ibadan during 1971–2012 at annual and seasonal sc...
Article
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This study examines the impacts of climate change on characteristics of extreme precipitation events over four African coastal cities (Cape Town, Maputo, Lagos and Port Said) under two future climate scenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5). Fourteen indices were used to characterise extreme precipitation and 16 multi-model simulation datasets from the Coordi...
Article
The present study examines trends in extreme temperature absolute indices [warmest day (TXx), coldest day (TXn), warmest night (TNx) and coldest night (TNn)] using the newly homogenized daily minimum and maximum temperature series from 21 stations in Nigeria for the period 1971–2012. The indices provide an understanding of the characteristics of ch...
Article
This study examines the characteristics of drought in the Volta River Basin (VRB), investigates the influence of drought on the streamflow, and projects the impacts of future climate change on the drought. A combination of observation data and regional climate simulations of past and future climates (1970–2013, 2046–2065, and 2081–2100) were analyz...
Article
Full-text available
This study presents the spatial-temporal structure of droughts in West Africa and evaluates the capability of CORDEX regional climate models in simulating the droughts. The study characterize droughts with the standardized evapo-transpiration index (SPEI) computed using the monthly rainfall and temperature data from the Climatic Research Unit (CRU)...
Article
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This study assesses the capability of regional climate models (RCMs) in simulating the characteristics of widespread extreme rainfall events over the East Coast of South Africa. Simulations of nine RCMs from the Coordinated Regional Downscaling Experiment (CORDEX) were analyzed for the study. All the simulations cover 12 years (1996–2008). Using th...
Chapter
The modelling of the changes taking place in our climate has developed into a sophisticated research area, and the predictions made by these models are becoming more and more reliable. In this chapter, some of the technical aspects of modelling are given together with a description of the main types of models currently being used. An evaluation of...
Article
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We find no evidence that the delayed onset of the wet season over Nigeria during April–May 2015 was made more likely by anthropogenic influences or anomalous sea surface temperatures.
Article
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Information on trends and changes in moisture conditions over a region can help policymakers to develop strategies for water resources and disaster risk management. In this study, the spatiotemporal variation of moisture indices and their annual trends in Nigeria were investigated. Thornthwaite moisture index (MI), the standardized precipitation in...
Article
Many studies have projected future climate changes over Southern Africa, but without including the influence of on-going forestation activities in the region. The present study investigates how the forestation activities may alter the projected climate change. For the study, two regional climate models (RegCM and WRF) were applied to simulate the p...
Article
Full-text available
This study analyses spatial and temporal trends in extreme temperature indices over Nigeria. The percentile indices were calculated from newly homogenized daily minimum and maximum temperature data for the period 1971–2012 for 21 stations in Nigeria. Indices describing the characteristics of hot extremes and cold extremes are calculated with the RC...
Article
This study evaluates the capability of regional climate models (RCMs) in simulating extreme rainfall events over Southern Africa, and in reproducing the characteristics of widespread extreme rainfall events (WERE) in the Western Cape (South Africa). We obtained simulation datasets of nine RCMs from the Co-ordinated Regional Downscaling Experiment (...
Book
A Technical Report to the Water Research Commission, South Africa, on a Project entitled The Limits of Predictability of the South African Seasonal Climate (WRC Report No 2067/1/15). This report details various accomplishments and findings of the project entitled “The Limits of Predictability of the South African Seasonal Climate” funded by the So...
Article
Full-text available
We evaluate the performance of two global circulation models (GCMs) over Southern Africa, as part of the efforts to improve the skill of seasonal forecast from a multi-model ensemble system over the region. The two GCMs evaluated in the study are the Community Atmosphere Model version 3 (CAM3) and the Hadley Centre Atmospheric Model version 3 (HadA...
Article
Full-text available
Droughts remain a threat to grape yields in South Africa. Previous studies on the impacts of climate on grape yield in the country have focussed on the impact of rainfall and temperature separately; meanwhile, grape yields are affected by drought, which is a combination of rainfall and temperature influences. The present study investigates the impa...
Article
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This study assesses the existence and importance of trends in the spread of South African climate simulations covering 50 years of a large initial-condition ensemble from a dynamical atmospheric model. It quantifies ensemble spread using two contrasting measures – standard deviation and 10–90th percentile range. The study then evaluates and examine...
Article
Adequate water resources management at basin levels needs quality downscale of climate change scenarios for application to impact and adaptation work. This study evaluates the ability of a regional climate model (RegCM3) in simulating the present-day climate and regional water balance over Niger River Basin (NRB). RegCM3 gives a good simulation of...
Article
This study evaluates the capability of regional climate models (RCMs) in simulating the link between El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and Southern African droughts. It uses the Standardized Precipitation-Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI, computed using rainfall and temperature data) to identify 3-month drought over Southern Africa, and compares th...
Article
As part of efforts to understand the sources of air pollution in Cape Town, this study investigates the local variation of tropospheric ozone (O3) and identifies possible advection paths of O3 pollution from a remote source to Cape Town. Measurements of O3 and wind from three sites in the Cape Town area were analyzed to study the local variations o...
Article
This study evaluates the capability of a Climate-Crop Modelling System (RegCM3-GLAM) in simulating the regional climate and crop yields (maize, rice, cowpea, and groundnut) over Nigeria. Daily climatic data obtained from a Regional Climate Model (RegCM3) simulation was used as the input data in the General Large Area Model (GLAM) to simulate the cr...
Article
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This paper presents the spatial and temporal structures of drought regimes in Southern Africa and evaluates the capability of ten global climate models (GCMs) in simulating the regimes. The study uses a multi-scaled standardized index (called standardized precipitation evapo-transpiration index, SPEI) in characterizing droughts over Southern Africa...
Article
Full-text available
This study simulates the impacts of reforestation on hydroclimatology of Niger River Basin (NRB) under enhanced greenhouse gases (GHGs). A regional climate model (RegCM3) was used to dynamically downscale hydroclimatological variables of NRB for present-day (PRS), and for future climate scenarios (with and without reforestation). The data were furt...