B. Hingray

French National Centre for Scientific Research | CNRS · Institut des Géosciences et de l'Environnement

Background. Activities embedded in academic culture (international conferences, field missions) are an important source of greenhouse gas emissions. For this reason, collective efforts still need to be strengthened to lower the carbon footprint of the academic sector. Serious games are often used to promote ecological transition. Nevertheless, most...

We assess the ability of two typical simulation chains to reproduce, over the last century (1902–2009) and from large-scale atmospheric information only, the temporal variations of river discharges, low flow sequences and flood events, observed at different locations of the Upper Rhône River (URR) catchment, an alpine river straddling France and Sw...

Analytical Multiplicative Random Cascades (MRCs) are widely used for the temporal disaggregation of coarse-resolution precipitation time series. This class of models applies simple scaling laws to represent the dependence of the cascade generator on the temporal scale and the precipitation intensity. Although determinant, the dependence on the exte...

Solar energy plays an increasing role in Africa to meet the Paris Agreement. But, a massive deployment of variable renewable energy creates a new form of vulnerability associated with unsecured supply. Thus, a sustainable energy transition is not only a question of the amount of infrastructure or installed power capacity; it is about empowering the...

The present study will allow to assess the effects of a serious game intervention vs. an awaraness-raising intervention on carbon footprint reduction among academic actors will provide some insights about the levers and obstacles (e.g., socioeconomic, institutional, psychological) related to carbon footprint reduction in academia.

Estimates for rare to very rare floods are limited by the relatively short streamflow records available. Often, pragmatic conversion factors are used to quantify such events based on extrapolated observations, or simplifying assumptions are made about extreme precipitation and resulting flood peaks. Continuous simulation (CS) is an alternative appr...

Autonomous micro-grids based on solar photovoltaic (PV) are one of the most promising solutions to provide electricity access in many regions worldwide. Different storage/PV capacities can produce the same level of quality service, but an optimal design is typically identified to minimize the levelized cost of electricity. This cost optimization ho...

Many solar photovoltaic (PV) energy projects are currently being planned and/or developed in West Africa to sustainably bridge the increasing gap between electricity demand and supply. However, climate change is likely to affect solar power generation and the atmospheric factors that control it. For the first time, the state-of-the-art CMIP climate...

Estimates for rare to very rare floods are limited by the relatively short streamflow records available. Often, pragmatic conversion factors are used to quantify such events based on extrapolated observations, or simplifying assumptions are made about extreme precipitation and resulting flood peaks. Continuous simulation (CS) is an alternative appr...

Large multiscenario multimodel ensembles (MMEs) of regional climate model (RCM) experiments driven by global climate models (GCMs) are made available worldwide and aim at providing robust estimates of climate changes and associated uncertainties. Due to many missing combinations of emission scenarios and climate models leading to sparse scenario–GC...

Decentralized electricity systems based on variable renewable energy (VRE) sources such as wind power can provide affordable, dependable, and modern energy in a manner consistent with the Paris Agreement. Such sources are, however, sensitive to extreme values of climatic factors—an issue that may jeopardize power system reliability. As a resource-r...

The Mediterranean region is a climate change hotspot for water resources. However, uncertainty analyses of hydrological projections are rarely quantified. In this study, an in-depth analysis of projections and uncertainties for high and low flows is performed. Climatic projections derived from a recent downscaling method were used, for two represen...

In several regions worldwide, demand for electricity can be highly dependent on weather conditions. This study investigates the relationships between weather and electricity consumption in three West African cities. Monthly electricity consumption datasets for the cities of Abidjan (Ivory Coast), Cotonou (Benin) and Lomé (Togo) for the 1990–2015, 2...

Large Multiscenarios Multimodel Ensembles (MMEs) of regional climate model (RCM) experiments driven by Global Climate Models (GCM) are made available worldwide and aim at providing robust estimates of climate changes and associated uncertainties. Due to many missing combinations of emission scenarios and climate models leading to sparse Scenario-GC...

The flexibility of hydropower plants with large reservoirs is frequently exploited to integrate large shares of variable and intermittent renewable energy sources in electricity systems. In this study, we assess the flexibility that could be provided by large hydropower reservoirs in West Africa to cope with planned future solar and wind energy gen...

Natural risk studies such as flood risk assessments require long series of weather variables. As an alternative to observed series, which have a limited length, these data can be provided by weather generators. Among the large variety of existing ones, resampling methods based on analogues have the advantage of guaranteeing the physical consistency...

Over the past decades, large variations of precipitation were observed in Africa, which often led to dramatic consequences for local society and economy. To avoid such disasters in the future, it is crucial to better anticipate the expected changes, especially in the current context of climate change and population growth. To this date, however, pr...

Abstract. Natural risk studies such as flood risk assessments require long series of weather variables. As an alternative to observed series, which have a limited length, these data can be provided by weather generators. Among the large variety of existing ones, resampling methods based on analogues have the advantage of guaranteeing the physical c...

The development of renewable electricity in Africa could be massive in coming decades, as a response to the rapid rising electricity demand while complying with the Paris Agreements. This study shows that in the high-resolution climate experiments of CORDEX-Africa, the annual mean solar potential is expected to decrease on average by 4% over most o...

Management of hydroelectric dams is an aspect of sustainability that comes with resolving problems locally. The use of global indicators has not been a sustainable solution, thus the need for local indicators. Besides, current sustainability assessment tools lack the integration of climate, making assessments in a climate change context impossible....

Quantifying model uncertainty and internal variability components in climate projections has been paid a great attention in the recent years. For multiple synthetic ensembles of climate projections, we compare the precision of uncertainty component estimates obtained respectively with the two Analysis of Variance (ANOVA) approaches mostly used in r...

Reliable flood estimates are needed for designing safe and cost‐effective flood protection structures. Classical flood estimation methods applied for deriving such estimates focus on peak discharge and neglect other important flood characteristics such as flood volume and the interdependence among different flood characteristics. Furthermore, they...

The quantification of uncertainty sources in ensembles of climate projections obtained from combinations of different scenarios and climate and impact models is a key issue in climate impact studies. The small size of the ensembles of simulation chains and their incomplete sampling of scenario and climate model combinations makes the analysis diffi...

We present a multi-site stochastic model for the generation of average daily temperature, which includes a flexible parametric distribution and a multivariate autoregressive process. Different versions of this model are applied to a set of 26 stations located in Switzerland. The importance of specific statistical characteristics of the model (seaso...

In many regions worldwide, the electrification of rural areas is expected to be partly achieved through micro power grids. Compliance with the COP21 conference requires that such systems mainly build on renewable energy sources. To deliver a high power and quality service may be difficult to be achieved, especially when micro-grids are based on var...

La prise en compte des incertitudes est devenue un impératif affiché, mais reste souvent un voeu pieu dans la pratique. Le cas des projections climatiques et de leur déclinaison sectorielle constitue un exemple emblématique de cette dichotomie. La communauté scientifique génère un nombre croissant de trajectoires représentant des futurs possibles....

The Paris Agreement requires all parties to enhance their efforts to reduce CO 2 emissions. In the energy sector, a reduction in fossil energy production while pursuing climate-friendly alternatives is thus imperative. In Ghana Variable Renewable Energy (VRE) such as solar and wind energy can be massively developed to meet increasing electricity de...

Handling the uncertainty of climate change projections (essay) The uncertainties associated with climate projections cannot be ignored when those projections are used. They arise from uncertainties surrounding developments for greenhouse gases, uncertainties arising from the climate models and the impact models (hydrology, biodiversity etc.), as we...

VALUE is an open European collaboration to intercompare downscaling approaches for climate change research, focusing on different validation aspects (marginal, temporal, extremes, spatial, process‐based, etc.). Here we describe the participating methods and first results from the first experiment, using “perfect” reanalysis (and reanalysis‐driven r...

The increasing share of variable renewable energy sources in the power supply system raises questions about the reliability and the steadiness of the production. In this study, we assess the main statistical characteristics of “energy droughts” for wind, solar and run-of-the-river hydro power in Europe. We propose two concepts of energy droughts, c...

Many multi-site stochastic models have been proposed for the generation of daily precipitation, but they generally focus on the reproduction of low to high precipitation amounts at the stations concerned. This paper proposes significant extensions to the multi-site daily precipitation model introduced by Wilks, with the aim of reproducing the stati...

Moving towards energy systems with high variable renewable energy shares requires a good understanding of the impacts of climate change on the energy penetration. To do so, most prior impact studies have considered climate projections available from Global Circulation Models (GCMs). Other studies apply sensitivity analyses on the climate variables...

Many multi-site stochastic models have been proposed for the generation of daily precipitation, but they generally focus on the reproduction of low to high precipitation amounts at the stations concerned. This paper proposes significant extensions to the multi-site daily precipitation model introduced by Wilks, with the aim of reproducing the stati...

Statistical downscaling models (SDMs) are often used to produce local weather scenarios from large-scale atmospheric information. SDMs include transfer functions which are based on a statistical link identified from observations between local weather and a set of large-scale predictors. As physical processes driving surface weather vary in time, th...

Since several years, climatologists are producing long reanalysis for studying the variability of global climate over the last 150 years. For hydrologists, these datasets offer interesting opportunities for reconstructing historical flood events, and thus increasing the sample size used for flood frequency analysis. In this study, a streamflow reco...

Thanks to its huge water storage capacity, Norway has an excess of energy generation at annual scale, although significant regional disparity exists. On average, the Mid-Norway region has an energy deficit and needs to import more electricity than it exports. We show that this energy deficit can be reduced with an increase in wind generation and trans...

Statistical Downscaling Methods (SDMs) are often used to produce local weather scenarios from large scale atmospheric information. SDMs include transfer functions which are based on a statistical link identified from observations between local weather and a set of large scale predictors. As physical processes generating surface weather vary in time...

Une vision prospective de la gestion de l'eau du bassin de la Durance et des territoires alimentes par ses eaux a l'horizon 2050 a ete elaboree, appuyee par une chaine de modeles incluant des representations du climat, de la ressource naturelle, des demandes en eau et du fonctionnement des grands ouvrages hydrauliques (Serre-Poncon, Castillon et Sa...

This paper proposes a methodology for estimating the transient probability distribution of yearly hydrological variables conditional to an ensemble of projections built from multiple general circulation models (GCMs), multiple statistical downscaling methods (SDMs), and multiple hydrological models (HMs). The methodology is based on the quasi-ergod...

This study compares the multivariate predictions of daily temperature, temperature range, precipitation, surface wind and solar radiation of a single‐model analogue approach with an original multi‐model analogy over 12 regions in Europe and Maghreb. Both approaches are based on two‐level analogue models where atmospheric predictors are either dynam...

The effects of spatial aggregation on the skill of downscaled precipitation predictions obtained over an 8 × 8 km2 grid from circulation analogs for metropolitan France are explored. The Safran precipitation reanalysis and an analog approach are used to downscale the precipitation where the predictors are taken from the 40-yr ECMWF Re-Analysis (ERA...

The penetration rate of Climate Related Energy sources like solar-power, wind-power and hydro-power source is potentially low as a result of the large space and time variability of their driving climatic variables. Increased penetration rates can be achieved with mixes of sources. Optimal mixes, i.e. obtained with the optimal share for each source,...

Climate related energy sources such as wind, solar and runoff sources are variable in time and space, following their driving weather variables. High penetration of such energy sources might be facilitated by using their complementarity in order to increase the balance between energy load and generation. This study presents the analysis of the effe...

This paper proposes a methodology for estimating the transient probability distribution of yearly hydrological variables conditional to an ensemble of projections built from multiple general circulation models (GCMs), multiple statistical downscaling methods (SDMs) and multiple hydrological models (HMs). The methodology is based on the quasi-ergodi...

Call for abstract EGU2016, session HS5.3

Water resource management models, used to anticipate global change impact on water system performance, are classically a crude representation of real water systems. This paper analyzes how the representation of the management model may influence estimates of changes in performance for a multiobjective water reservoir in the French Alps. We consider...

Water management planning is influenced by many natural and human factors that interact at basin scale. A multidisciplinary approach is therefore required to both understand and well represent the main characteristics of the water system before analysing its sustainability under global change and suggesting efficient adaptation measures. The comple...

Efforts to improve the understanding of past climatic or hydrologic variability have received a great deal of attention in various fields of geosciences such as glaciology, dendrochronology, sedimentology and hydrology. Based on different proxies, each research community produces different kinds of climatic or hydrologic reanalyses at different spa...

Efforts to improve the understanding of past climatic or hydrologic variability have received a great deal of attention in various fields of geosciences such as glaciology, dendrochronology, sedimentology and hydrology. Based on different proxies, each research community produces different kinds of climatic or hydrologic reanalyses at different spa...

The performance of water systems used worldwide for the management of water resources is expected to be influenced by future changes in regional climates and water uses. Anticipating possible performance changes of a given system requires a modeling chain simulating its management. Operational management is usually not trivial especially when sever...

Climate related energy sources such as wind, solar and runoff sources are variable in time and space, following their driving weather variables. High penetration of such energy sources into the energy network might be facilitated by using the complementarity of different energy sources. Complementary resources lead to reduce the balance between the...

The performance of water systems used worldwide for the management of water resources is expected to be influenced by future changes in regional climates and water uses. Anticipating possible performance changes of a given system requires a modeling chain simulating its management. Operational management is usually not trivial especially when sever...

Climate related energy sources like solar-power, wind-power and hydro-power are important contributors to the transitions to a low-carbon economy. Past studies, mainly based on solar and wind powers, showed that the power from such energy sources fluctuates in time and space following their driving climatic variables. However, when combining differ...

European countries have a target to reduce the used of coal and fossil fuel and substitute them with renewable energy. Solar power, hydropower, and wind power are the most popular energies, but these power generations fluctuate based on weather variables. High dependence to weather also applied for energy demand. These climate dependencies (e.g. se...

Hydropower systems have played an important historical role in the development of hydrology (Koutsoyiannis, 2014). Scientific and technical questions underlying hydropower planning and operation motivated the archiving of time series of hydro-meteorological data and their statistical analysis (Hurst, 1951), paving the way for the fields of hydrolog...

hydrol-earth-syst-sci.net/18/3787/2014/ doi:10.5194/hess-18-3787-2014 © Author(s) 2014. CC Attribution 3.0 License. Abstract. Water is accumulated in reservoirs to adapt in time the availability of the resource to various demands like hydropower production, irrigation, water supply or ecolog-ical constraints. Deterministic dynamic programming retro...