Ayako Abe-Ouchi

Ayako Abe-Ouchi
The University of Tokyo | Todai · Division of Climate System Research

Doctor of Philosophy

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316
Publications
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Introduction
Skills and Expertise

Publications

Publications (316)
Article
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Despite tectonic conditions and atmospheric CO 2 levels ( pCO 2 ) similar to those of present-day, geological reconstructions from the mid-Pliocene (3.3-3.0 Ma) document high lake levels in the Sahel and mesic conditions in subtropical Eurasia, suggesting drastic reorganizations of subtropical terrestrial hydroclimate during this interval. Here, us...
Article
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The climates of terrestrial planets with a small amount of water on their surface, called land planets, are significantly different from the climates of planets having a large amount of surface water. Land planets have a higher runaway greenhouse threshold than aqua planets, which extends the inner edge of the habitable zone inward. Land planets al...
Preprint
The climates of terrestrial planets with a small amount of water on their surface, called land planets, are significantly different from the climates of planets having a large amount of surface water. Land planets have a higher runaway greenhouse threshold than aqua planets, which extends the inner edge of the habitable zone inward. Land planets al...
Article
Full-text available
Model intercomparison studies of coupled carbon-climate simulations have the potential to improve our understanding of the processes explaining the pCO₂ drawdown at the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) and to identify related model biases. Models participating in the Paleoclimate Modeling Intercomparison Project (PMIP) now frequently include the carbon c...
Article
Projections of the sea level contribution from the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets (GrIS and AIS) rely on atmospheric and oceanic drivers obtained from climate models. The Earth System Models participating in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 6 (CMIP6) generally project greater future warming compared with the previous Coupled Mode...
Article
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The Last Glacial Maximum (LGM, ∼ 21 000 years ago) has been a major focus for evaluating how well state-of-the-art climate models simulate climate changes as large as those expected in the future using paleoclimate reconstructions. A new generation of climate models has been used to generate LGM simulations as part of the Paleoclimate Modelling Int...
Article
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Following the protocol of the fourth phase of the Paleoclimate Modelling Intercomparison Project (PMIP4), we performed numerical experiments targeting distinctive past time periods using the Model for Interdisciplinary Research on Climate, Earth System version 2 for Long-term simulations (MIROC-ES2L), which is an Earth system model. Setup and basic...
Article
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In the Pliocene Model Intercomparison Project Phase 2 (PlioMIP2), coupled climate models have been used to simulate an interglacial climate during the mid-Piacenzian warm period (mPWP; 3.264 to 3.025 Ma). Here, we compare the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC), poleward ocean heat transport and sea surface warming in the Atlantic si...
Article
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The modeling of paleoclimate, using physically based tools, is increasingly seen as a strong out-of-sample test of the models that are used for the projection of future climate changes. New to the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) is the Tier 1 Last Interglacial experiment for 127 000 years ago (lig127k), designed to address the climate...
Article
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Palaeoclimate simulations improve our understanding of the climate, inform us about the performance of climate models in a different climate scenario, and help to identify robust features of the climate system. Here, we analyse Arctic warming in an ensemble of 16 simulations of the mid-Pliocene Warm Period (mPWP), derived from the Pliocene Model In...
Article
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The Pliocene epoch has great potential to improve our understanding of the long-term climatic and environmental consequences of an atmospheric CO2 concentration near ∼400 parts per million by volume. Here we present the large-scale features of Pliocene climate as simulated by a new ensemble of climate models of varying complexity and spatial resolu...
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A range of future climate scenarios are projected for high atmospheric CO2 concentrations, given uncertainties over future human actions as well as potential environmental and climatic feedbacks. The geological record offers an opportunity to understand climate system response to a range of forcings and feedbacks which operate over multiple tempora...
Article
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Thermodynamic arguments imply that global mean rainfall increases in a warmer atmosphere; however, dynamical effects may result in more significant diversity of regional precipitation change. Here we investigate rainfall changes in the mid-Pliocene Warm Period (~ 3 Ma), a time when temperatures were 2–3ºC warmer than the pre-industrial era, using o...
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We analyzed the chemical compositions of dust and sea‐salt particles in the EPICA Dome C (EDC) ice core during 26–7 kyr BP using an ice‐sublimation technique and compared the results with existing data of the Dome Fuji (DF) ice core. Combined with ion concentration data, our data suggested similar sea‐salt fluxes in both cores and significantly low...
Preprint
Full-text available
Abstract. Ice flow models of the Antarctic ice sheet are commonly used to simulate its future evolution in response to different climate scenarios and inform on the mass loss that would contribute to future sea level rise. However, there is currently no consensus on estimated the future mass balance of the ice sheet, primarily because of difference...
Article
The Pliocene epoch has great potential to improve our understanding of the long-term climatic and environmental consequences of an atmospheric CO2 concentration near ~ 400 parts per million by volume. Here we present the large-scale features of Pliocene climate as simulated by a new ensemble of climate models of varying complexity and spatial resol...
Article
Full-text available
When planets receive insolation above a certain critical value called the runaway threshold, liquid surface water vaporizes completely, which forms the inner edge of the habitable zone. Because land planets can emit a large amount of radiation from the dry tropics, they have a higher runaway threshold than aqua planets do. Here we systematically in...
Article
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Increased accumulation of respired carbon in the deep ocean associated with enhanced efficiency of the biological carbon pump is thought to be a key mechanism of glacial CO2 drawdown. Despite greater oxygen solubility due to sea surface cooling, recent quantitative and qualitative proxy data show glacial deep-water deoxygenation, reflecting increas...
Article
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The penultimate deglaciation (PDG, ~ 138–128 thousand years before present, hereafter ka) is the transition from the penultimate glacial maximum to the Last Interglacial (LIG, ~ 129–116 ka). The LIG stands out as one of the warmest interglacials of the last 800 ka, with high-latitude temperature warmer than today and global sea level likely higher...
Article
Detailed reconstruction of Indian summer monsoons is necessary to better understand the late Quaternary climate history of the Bay of Bengal and Indian peninsula. We established a chronostratigraphy for a sediment core from Hole 19B in the western Bay of Bengal, extending to approximately 80 kyr BP and examined major and trace element compositions...
Preprint
Full-text available
Ice sheet numerical modeling is the best approach to estimate the dynamic contribution of Antarctica to sea level rise over the coming centuries. The influence of initial conditions on ice sheet model simulations, however, is still unclear. To better understand this influence, an initial state intercomparison exercise (initMIP) has been developed t...
Article
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The effect of aerosols is one of many uncertain factors in projections of future climate. However, the behaviour of mineral dust aerosols (dust) can be investigated within the context of past climate change. The Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) is known to have had enhanced dust deposition in comparison with the present, especially over polar regions. Us...
Article
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p>Global warming is expected to significantly decrease oceanic carbon uptake and therefore increase atmospheric CO2 and global warming. The primary reasons given in previous studies for such changes in the oceanic carbon uptake are the solubility reduction due to seawater warming and changes in the ocean circulation and biological pump. However, th...
Article
Full-text available
Earlier large-scale Greenland ice sheet sea-level projections (e.g. those run during the ice2sea and SeaRISE initiatives) have shown that ice sheet initial conditions have a large effect on the projections and give rise to important uncertainties. The goal of this initMIP-Greenland intercomparison exercise is to compare, evaluate, and improve the i...
Article
Full-text available
Coupled modeling studies have recently shown that the existence of the glacial ice sheets intensifies the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC). However, most models show a strong AMOC in their simulations of the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM), which is biased compared to reconstructions that indicate both a weaker and stronger AMOC during...
Article
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This paper is the first of a series of four GMD papers on the PMIP4-CMIP6 experiments. Part 2 (Otto-Bliesner et al., 2017) gives details about the two PMIP4-CMIP6 interglacial experiments, Part 3 (Jungclaus et al., 2017) about the last millennium experiment, and Part 4 (Kageyama et al., 2017) about the Last Glacial Maximum experiment. The mid-Plioc...
Article
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The δD temperature proxy in Antarctic ice cores varies in parallel with CO2 through glacial cycles. However, these variables display a puzzling asynchrony. Well-dated records of Southern Ocean temperature will provide crucial information because the Southern Ocean is likely key in regulating CO2 variations. Here, we perform multiple isotopic analys...
Article
Full-text available
The effect of aerosols is one of the many uncertain factors in projections of the future climate. However, the behaviour of mineral dust aerosol (dust) can be investigated in the context of past climate changes. The Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) is known to have resulted in an enhancement of the dust deposition, especially over the polar regions. Usin...
Article
Liquid water is one of the most important materials affecting the climate and habitability of a terrestrial planet. Liquid water vaporizes entirely when planets receive insolation above a certain value, which is called the runaway greenhouse threshold. This threshold forms the inner most limit of the habitable zone. Here, we investigate the effect...
Chapter
This paper presents a computer-based method to estimate optimal migration routes of early human population groups by a combination of ecological niche analysis and least-cost path analysis. In the proposed method, niche probability is predicted by MaxEnt, an ecological niche model based on the maximum entropy theory. Location of known archaeologica...
Article
It has been shown that asymmetric warming between the Northern and Southern Hemisphere extratropics induces a meridional displacement of tropical precipitation. This shift is believed to be due to the extra energy transported from the differentially heated hemisphere through changes in the Hadley circulation. Generally, the column-integrated energy...
Article
Full-text available
Global warming is expected to significantly decrease oceanic carbon uptake and therefore accelerate an increase in atmospheric CO2 and global warming. The primary reasons in previous studies for the change in the oceanic carbon uptake are the solubility reduction due to seawater warming and changes in the ocean circulation and biological pump. Howe...
Article
Full-text available
Two interglacial epochs are included in the suite of Paleoclimate Modeling Intercomparison Project (PMIP4) simulations in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6). The experimental protocols for simulations of the mid-Holocene (midHolocene, 6000 years before present) and the Last Interglacial (lig127k, 127 000 years before present) are des...
Article
Full-text available
It is well known that the Arctic warms much more than the rest of the world even under spatially quasi-uniform radiative forcing such as that due to an increase in atmospheric CO2 concentration. While the surface albedo feedback is often referred to as the explanation of the enhanced Arctic warming, the importance of atmospheric heat transport from...
Article
Wetlands cover large areas of the middle and high latitudes and influence the surface water and energy budget, surface hydrology, and the climate system. In this study, a scheme implicitly representing a snow-fed wetland, in which snowmelt can be stored with consideration of subgrid terrain complexity, was implemented in the Minimal Advanced Treatm...
Article
Full-text available
The Last Glacial Maximum (LGM, 21 000 years ago) is one of the suite of paleoclimate simulations included in the current phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6). It is an interval when insolation was similar to the present, but global ice volume was at a maximum, eustatic sea level was at or close to a minimum, greenhouse gas con...
Article
Full-text available
Earlier large-scale Greenland ice sheet sea-level projections (e.g., those run during the ice2sea and SeaRISE initiatives) have shown that ice sheet initial conditions can have a large effect on the projections and give rise to important uncertainties. The goal of the initMIP-Greenland intercomparison exercise is to compare, evaluate and improve th...
Article
Full-text available
The Last Glacial Maximum (LGM, 21,000 years ago) is one of the suite of paleoclimate simulations included in the current phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6). It is an interval when insolation was similar to present, but global ice volume was at a maximum, eustatic sea level was at or close to a minimum, greenhouse gas concent...
Article
Basal melting of the Antarctic ice shelves is an important factor in determining the stability of the Antarctic ice sheet. This study used the climatic outputs of an atmosphere-ocean general circulation model to force a circumpolar ocean model that resolves ice shelf cavity circulation to investigate the response of Antarctic ice shelf melting to d...
Article
Full-text available
Climatic variabilities on millennial and longer time scales with a bipolar seesaw pattern have been documented in paleoclimatic records, but their frequencies, relationships with mean climatic state, and mechanisms remain unclear. Understanding the processes and sensitivities that underlie these changes will underpin better understanding of the cli...
Article
Full-text available
Reducing the uncertainty in the past, present, and future contribution of ice sheets to sea-level change requires a coordinated effort between the climate and glaciology communities. The Ice Sheet Model Intercomparison Project for CMIP6 (ISMIP6) is the primary activity within the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project – phase 6 (CMIP6) focusing on t...
Article
The most recent Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change assessment report concludes that the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) could weaken substantially but is very unlikely to collapse in the 21st century. However, the assessment largely neglected Greenland Ice Sheet (GrIS) mass loss, lacked a comprehensive uncertainty analysis...
Article
Full-text available
Two interglacial epochs are included in the suite of Paleoclimate Modeling Intercomparison Project (PMIP4) simulations in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6). The experimental protocols for Tier 1 simulations of the mid-Holocene (midHolocene, 6000 years before present) and the Last Interglacial (lig127k, 127,000 years before present)...
Article
The most recent IPCC assessment report concludes that the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) could weaken substantially, but is very unlikely to collapse in the 21st century. However, the assessment largely neglected Greenland Ice Sheet (GrIS) mass loss, lacked a comprehensive uncertainty analysis, and was limited to the 21st centur...
Article
Full-text available
Two interglacial epochs are included in the suite of paleoclimate simulations in the present phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6). Equilibrium simulations of the mid-Holocene (midHolocene, 6000 years before present) and the Last Interglacial (lig127k, 127,000 years before present) are designed to examine the impact of changes...
Article
Full-text available
Documenting past changes in the East Antarctic surface mass balance is important to improve ice core chronologies and to constrain the ice-sheet contribution to global mean sea-level change. Here we reconstruct past changes in the ratio of surface mass balance (SMB ratio) between the EPICA Dome C (EDC) and Dome Fuji (DF) East Antarctica ice core si...
Article
Full-text available
The correct understanding of the transient response to external radiative perturbation is important for the interpretation of observed climate change, the prediction of near-future climate change, and committed warming under climate stabilization scenarios, as well as the estimation of equilibrium climate sensitivity based on observation data. It h...
Article
Full-text available
Reducing the uncertainty in the past, present and future contribution of ice sheets to sea level change requires a coordinated effort between the climate and glaciology communities. The Ice Sheet Model Intercomparison Project for CMIP6 (ISMIP6) is the primary activity within the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project – phase 6 (CMIP6) focusing on th...
Article
Full-text available
The goal of the Palaeoclimate Modelling Intercomparison Project (PMIP) is to understand the response of the climate system to changes in different climate forcings and to feedbacks. Through comparison with observations of the environmental impacts of these climate changes, or with climate reconstructions based on physical, chemical or biological re...