Aurelio Tobias

Institute of Environmental Assessment and Water Research | IDAEA · Geosciences

Background: The minimum mortality temperature from J- or U- shaped curves varies across cities with different climates. This variation conveys information on adaptation, but ability to characterize it is limited by the absence of a method to describe uncertainty in estimated minimum mortality temperatures. Methods: We propose an approximate para...

Lockdown measures came into force in Spain from March 14th, two weeks after the start of the SARS-CoV-2 epidemic, to reduce the epidemic curve. Our study aims to describe changes in air pollution levels during the lockdown measures in the city of Barcelona (NE Spain), by studying the time evolution of atmospheric pollutants recorded at the urban ba...

Background: Desert dust is assumed to have substantial adverse effects on human health. However, the epidemiologic evidence is still inconsistent, mainly because previous studies used different metrics for dust exposure and its corresponding epidemiologic analysis. We aim to provide a standardized approach to the methodology for evaluating the sho...

Climate change affects human health; however, there have been no large-scale, systematic efforts to quantify the heat-related human health impacts that have already occurred due to climate change. Here, we use empirical data from 732 locations in 43 countries to estimate the mortality burdens associated with the additional heat exposure that has re...

Several methods have been used to assess the seasonality of health outcomes in epidemiological studies. However, little information is available on the methods to study the changes in seasonality before and after adjusting for environmental or other known seasonally varying factors. Such investigations will help us understand the role of these fact...

Background Heat stroke is a significant cause of mortality in response to high summer temperatures. There is limited evidence on the pattern and magnitude of the association between temperature and heat stroke mortality. We examined this association in Spain, using data from a 27-year follow-up period. Methods We used a space-time-stratified case–...

Background: Various rainfall conditions could promote the transmission of diarrhoeal diseases by affecting the pathogen concentration in the environment. Given the diversity of rainfall patterns across different climates, this study explored the associations between rainfall and diarrhoeal mortality in tropical, temperate, and arid regions. Metho...

Background The global spatiotemporal pattern of mortality risk and burden attributable to tropical cyclones is unclear. We aimed to evaluate the global short-term mortality risk and burden associated with tropical cyclones from 1980 to 2019. Methods The wind speed associated with cyclones from 1980 to 2019 was estimated globally through a parametr...

Background: Epidemiological evidence on the health risks of sulfur dioxide (SO2) is more limited compared with other pollutants, and doubts remain on several aspects, such as the form of the exposure-response relationship, the potential role of copollutants, as well as the actual risk at low concentrations and possible temporal variation in risks....

In July 2022, Spain experienced an excessive heat episode during which many cities broke temperature records. According to the Spanish Meteorological Agency, it has been the warmest month in Spain ever, at least since 1961. We estimated the mortality attributable to heat using the observed daily mortality by the Spanish daily mortality surveillance...

Desert dust and sandstorms are recurring environmental phenomena that are reported to produce serious health risks worldwide. This scoping review was conducted to identify the most likely health effects of desert dust and sandstorms and the methods used to characterize desert dust exposure from the existing epidemiological literature. We systematic...

Background: Heat and cold are established environmental risk factors for human health. However, mapping the related health burden is a difficult task due to the complexity of the associations and the differences in vulnerability and demographic distributions. In this study, we did a comprehensive mortality impact assessment due to heat and cold in...

Objective: This study aims to determine the contribution of comorbidly to excess PNES mortality. Methods: Retrospective cohort study of tertiary epilepsy outpatients from St Vincent's Hospital Melbourne, Australia with 8:1 comparison cohort, matched by age, sex and socioeconomic status (SES) to national administrative databases between 2007-2017...

Background: Evidence on the potential interactive effects of heat and ambient air pollution on cause-specific mortality is inconclusive and limited to selected locations. Objectives: We investigated the effects of heat on cardiovascular and respiratory mortality and its modification by air pollution during summer months (six consecutive hottest...

Background Although adaptation to continuously rising ambient temperatures is an emerging topic and has been widely studied at a global scale, detailed analysis of the joint indicators for long-term adaptation in Spain are scarce. This study aims to explore temporal variations of the minimum mortality temperature and mortality burden from heat and...

Background: Cardiovascular disease is the leading cause of death worldwide. Existing studies on the association between temperatures and cardiovascular deaths have been limited in geographic zones and have generally considered associations with total cardiovascular deaths rather than cause-specific cardiovascular deaths. Methods: We used unified data...

Background and aim Short-term associations between air pollution and mortality have been well reported in Japan, but the historical changes in mortality risk remain unknown. We examined temporal changes in the mortality risks associated with short-term exposure to four criteria air pollutants in selected Japanese cities. Methods We collected daily...

Risk estimators for COVID-19 propagation based on the incidence rate of new cases can be misleading as they usually fail to account for the fraction of population immunized by infection or vaccination.This misconception yields different incidence rates, as we illustrate using the daily number of COVID-19 reported cases in Spain during the pre-vacci...

Background Identifying how greenspace impacts the temperature-mortality relationship in urban environments is crucial, especially given climate change and rapid urbanization. However, the effect modification of greenspace on heat-related mortality has been typically focused on a localized area or single country. This study examined the heat-mortali...

Human health is linked to climatic factors in complex ways, and climate change can have profound direct and indirect impacts on the health status of any given region. Susceptibility to climate change is modulated by biological, ecological and socio-political factors such as age, gender, geographic location, socio-economic status, occupation, health...

Background and aim The associations between COVID-19 transmission and meteorological factors are scientifically debated. Several studies have been conducted worldwide, with inconsistent findings. However, often these studies had methodological issues, e.g., did not exclude important confounding factors, or had limited geographic or temporal resolut...

The data presented in this article is part in essence of a more extensive dataset aimed at evaluating patterns of change in the temperature–mortality relationship on population health in the city of Valencia, Spain on population health in the city of Valencia, Spain. The complete dataset was used in the framework of the European multi-city project...

Background: Preterm birth is the leading cause of death in newborns and children. Tocolytic drugs aim to delay preterm birth by suppressing uterine contractions to allow time for administration of corticosteroids for fetal lung maturation, magnesium sulphate for neuroprotection, and transport to a facility with appropriate neonatal care facilities...

Study question What is the relative effectiveness and safety of existing COS protocols for women undergoing assisted reproductive technology (ART) treatment? Summary answer There was no difference in live birth between all protocols, but short antagonist protocols may reduce ovarian hyperstimulation syndrome in women with predicted normal/high res...

Rationale: The associations between ambient coarse particulate matter (PM2.5-10) and daily mortality is not fully understood at a global scale. Objectives: To evaluate the short-term associations between PM2.5-10 and total, cardiovascular, and respiratory mortality across multiple countries/regions worldwide. Methods: We collected daily mortal...

( BJOG . 2021;128:1324–1333) Maternal sepsis is the third most common direct cause of maternal mortality worldwide. Low-resource settings are disproportionately affected by maternal sepsis. While sepsis screening and care bundles can reduce the time to initiation of treatment and improve outcomes, the current bundles are not specific to maternal ca...

In late March 2018, a large part of the Eastern Mediterranean experienced an extraordinary episode of African dust, one of the most intense in recent years, here referred to as the “Minoan Red” event. The episode mainly affected the Greek island of Crete, where the highest aerosol concentrations over the past 15 yeas were recorded, although impacts...

The aim of the "Sand and Dust Storms Compendium: Information and Guidance on Assessing and Addressing the Risks" is to provide information and guidance on how to assess and address the risks posed by sand and dust storms and plan actions to combat sand and dust storms. The Compendium brings together information and guidance from a wide range of sou...

Background Increased mortality risk is associated with short-term temperature variability. However, to our knowledge, there has been no comprehensive assessment of the temperature variability-related mortality burden worldwide. In this study, using data from the MCC Collaborative Research Network, we first explored the association between temperatu...

Vehicular traffic is one of the major sources of air pollution in European cities. This work aims to understand which characteristics of the urban environment could influence mobility-related air pollution, quantify the health impacts of exposure to traffic-derived PM2.5 and NO2 concentrations, and assess the potential health benefits expected from...

Epidemiological analyses of health risks associated with non-optimal temperature are traditionally based on ground observations from weather stations that offer limited spatial and temporal coverage. Climate reanalysis represents an alternative option that provide complete spatio-temporal exposure coverage, and yet are to be systematically explored...

Background Numerous studies have quantified the associations between ambient temperature and enteric infections, particularly all-cause enteric infections. However, the temperature sensitivity of enteric infections might be pathogen dependent. Here, we sought to identify pathogen-specific associations between ambient temperature and enteric infecti...

Studies have investigated the effects of heat and temperature variability (TV) on mortality. However, few assessed whether TV modifies the heat-mortality association. Data on daily temperature and mortality in the warm season were collected from 717 locations across 36 countries. TV was calculated as the standard deviation of the average of the sam...

Numerous studies have been conducted worldwide to investigate if an association exists between meteorological factors and the Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) infection incidence. Although research studies provide conflicting results, which can be partially explained by different methods used, some clear trends emerge on...

Background: Identifying how greenspace impacts the temperature-mortality relationship in urban environments is crucial, especially given climate change and rapid urbanization. To date, studies on this topic have indicated conflicting findings and typically focus on a localized area or single country. We evaluated the effect modification of greenspa...

Background: The association between fine particulate matter (PM2.5) and mortality widely differs between as well as within countries. Differences in PM2.5 composition can play a role in modifying the effect estimates, but there is little evidence about which components have higher impacts on mortality. Methods: We applied a two-stage analysis on...

Background More than half of the working population in Latin American and Caribbean (LAC) countries is engaged in informal employment. The few previous studies indicate that this employment condition could have negative consequences for workers’ health. The aim of the present study was to estimate the association between self-perceived health and i...

Background Ambient temperature may contribute to seasonality of mortality; in particular, a warming climate is likely to influence the seasonality of mortality. However, few studies have investigated seasonality of mortality under a warming climate. Methods Daily mean temperature, daily counts for all-cause, circulatory, and respiratory mortality,...

Objectives Recreational physical activity is an integral part of our society, and the injuries caused by sports activities are a concern for public health. We studied the effect of outdoor ambient temperature on hospital emergency department visits caused by sports injuries in Madrid, Spain, and accounted for its seasonal changes. Methods We used...

There is conflicting evidence on the influence of weather on COVID-19 transmission. Our aim is to estimate weather-dependent signatures in the early phase of the pandemic, while controlling for socio-economic factors and non-pharmaceutical interventions. We identify a modest non-linear association between mean temperature and the effective reproduc...

Background The evidence on the association between ultrafine (UFP) particles and mortality is still inconsistent. Moreover, health effects of specific UFP sources have not been explored. We assessed the impact of UFP sources on daily mortality in Barcelona, Helsinki, London, and Zurich. Methods UFP sources were previously identified and quantified...

What this study adds The minimum mortality temperature (MMT) is an important indicator of the relationship between temperature and mortality. It indicates the adaptability to climate, but little is known about its geographical changes in the global distribution. This article investigates the geographic differences of the MMT on a global scale and s...

Background Many regions of the world are now facing more frequent and unprecedentedly large wildfires. However, the association between wildfire-related PM2·5 and mortality has not been well characterised. We aimed to comprehensively assess the association between short-term exposure to wildfire-related PM2·5 and mortality across various regions of...

Background Although seasonal variations in mortality have been recognized for millennia, the role of temperature remains unclear. We aimed to assess seasonal variation in mortality and to examine the contribution of temperature. Methods We compiled daily data on all-cause, cardiovascular and respiratory mortality, temperature and indicators on loc...

Background: Minimum mortality temperature (MMT) is an important indicator to assess the temperature-mortality association, indicating long-term adaptation to local climate. Limited evidence about the geographical variability of the MMT is available at a global scale. Methods: We collected data from 658 communities in 43 countries under different...

The nonpharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) on COVID-19 can impact current and future dynamics of respiratory syncytial virus infections (RSV). In Tokyo, RSV activity declined by 97.9% (95%CI: 94.8% - 99.2%) during NPIs. A longer period of NPIs could expand susceptible populations, enhancing the potential for larger RSV outbreaks after NPIs ends.

Background: The increased risk of mortality during periods of high and low temperatures has been well established. However, most of the studies used daily counts of deaths or hospitalisations as health outcomes, although they are the ones at the top of the health impact pyramid reflecting only a limited proportion of patients with the most severe c...

Background Exposure to cold or hot temperatures is associated with premature deaths. We aimed to evaluate the global, regional, and national mortality burden associated with non-optimal ambient temperatures. Methods In this modelling study, we collected time-series data on mortality and ambient temperatures from 750 locations in 43 countries and f...

Background: There is strong evidence concerning the impact of heat stress on mortality, particularly from high temperatures. However, few studies to our knowledge emphasize the importance of hot nights, which may prevent necessary nocturnal rest. Objectives: In this study, we use hot-night duration and excess to predict daily cause-specific mortal...

The preventive and cautionary measures taken by the UAE and Abu Dhabi governments to reduce the spread of the coronavirus disease (COVID-19) and promote social distancing have led to a reduction of mobility and a modification of economic and social activities. This paper provides statistical analysis of the air quality data monitored by the Environ...

Background: More than half of the working population in Latin American and Caribbean (LAC) countries is engaged in informal employment. The few previous studies indicate that this employment condition could have negative consequences for workers' health. The aim of the present study was to estimate the association between self-perceived health and...

Background: Miscarriage, defined as the spontaneous loss of a pregnancy before 24 weeks' gestation, is common with approximately 25% of women experiencing a miscarriage in their lifetime. An estimated 15% of pregnancies end in miscarriage. Miscarriage can lead to serious morbidity, including haemorrhage, infection, and even death, particularly in...