Aurel Croissant

Aurel Croissant
Universität Heidelberg · Institute of Political Science

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204
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Publications

Publications (204)
Book
Dieses Buch bietet eine Einführung in die vergleichende Analyse der politischen Systeme in der Region. Die analytische Perspektive ist auf die politischen Strukturen, Akteure und Prozesse in den elf Staaten gerichtet. Es werden sowohl Demokratien als auch Autokratien untersucht. Die Analyse der aktuellen Strukturen und Entwicklungen ist eingebettet...
Book
This forthcoming book examines the conditions under which new democracies succeed or fail in establishing firm and lasting civilian control of the military. It introduces a multi-dimensional conceptual framework to evaluate the degree of civilian control in new democracies and to trace developments over time. The theory of civilian control in new d...
Book
This second edition of Comparative Politics of Southeast Asia offers a revised and extended update of the textbook published in 2018. The textbook provides a comprehensive introduction to the political systems of all ASEAN countries and Timor-Leste from a comparative perspective. It investigates the political institutions, actors, and processes in...
Book
This forthcoming, edited volume comprises 13 chapters, written by 21 authors from Asia, the South Pacific, North America and Europe. The volume investigates (i) the effectiveness of governments’ COVID responses and (ii) the effects of the COVID crisis on the quality of democracy in the region. The volume does not only tackle the immediate question...
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This paper provides a critical assessment of the Sustainable Governance Indicators (SGI) and compares it with other prominent indices that address specific components of governance: V-Dem, WGI, and BTI. We offer a comparative assessment of content validity of these governance measures, their data generation processes , and their convergent validity...
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It is a long-standing belief in democracy studies that configurations of well-institutionalized and both moderately polarized and fractionalized party systems promote the effectiveness and efficiency of democratic institutions and thereby contribute to the functioning and legitimacy of the democratic system at large. At the same time, scholars freq...
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en Autocratization affects democracies and autocracies with gradual setbacks in democratic qualities. The current debate on autocratization is lacking a comprehensive and systematic overview of different autocratization concepts and empirical measures. Addressing the gap, this research note identifies and discusses different strategies of operation...
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Given Asia-Pacific’s diversity and the large variance of potentially relevant causal factors, the region presents social scientists with a natural laboratory to test competing theories of democratic erosion, decay and revival and to identify new patterns and relationships. This introductory article offers a brief review of the relevant literature a...
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S u s t a i n a b l e Go v e r n a n c e I n d i c a t o r s 2 0 2 0 J a p a n R e p o r t We r n e r P a s c h a , P a t r i c k K ö l l n e r , A u r e l C r o i s s a n t (C o o r d i n a t o r)
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Around the globe, democracy is ailing. In the past 15 years or so, an increasing number of democracies worldwide have suffered from gradual erosion and decay. According to the most recent Varieties of Democracy (V-Dem) report, 1 examples can be found in most regions of the world including the United States and the European Union, where Hungary's Vi...
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Stateness and Democracy in East Asia - edited by Aurel Croissant May 2020
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Stateness and Democracy in East Asia - edited by Aurel Croissant May 2020
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Stateness and Democracy in East Asia - edited by Aurel Croissant May 2020
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This chapter examines the possible causal relationship between form of rule and economic development for 20 countries in South Asia, Southeast Asia and Northeast Asia. We approach the topic in four steps. Section 2 discusses the extant literature on the development-democracy nexus. Section 3 then presents our key concepts, data and method. In Secti...
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Worldwide, democracy is under pressure. The slow but steady erosion of democracy in many places in the last decade seems to accelerate since the outbreak of the Corona pandemic. As political leaders seize powers to ght the virus, worries grow if they readily will give up accrued powers once the crisis eventually subsides. In addition, the uneven pe...
Book
Cambridge Core - South-East Asian Government, Politics and Policy - Stateness and Democracy in East Asia - edited by Aurel Croissant
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Full-text available
Autocratization affects democracies and autocracies with gradual setbacks in democratic qualities. In the current debate on autocratization, a comprehensive overview of different autocratization concepts and empirical measures is still lacking. Addressing the gap, this research note provides new insights on how to conceptualize and measure autocrat...
Preprint
chapter in a forthcoming book on party finance and political corruption. this publication is presents preliminary work from a work package on political finance and political corruption.
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Political violence is everywhere. But how does it emerge and what can be done about it? This book addresses the diversity of violence in South Asia, South East Asia and Western Europe. It examines the various forms of ideological backgrounds, structural conditions, relations and aims of non-state actors who are involved in violence in these regions...
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S u s t a i n a b l e Go v e r n a n c e I n d i c a t o r s 2 0 1 9 J a p a n R e p o r t We r n e r P a s c h a , P a t r i c k K ö l l n e r , A u r e l C r o i s s a n t (C o o r d i n a t o r)
Book
This book explores the historical origins, contemporary dynamics and future challenges of social cohesion in South, Southeast and East Asia-one of the most dynamic and at the same time heterogeneous regions in the world, in terms of economic, political and human development. The comparative case studies in this volume develop a better understanding...
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In 2018, ever-incumbent Prime Minister Hun Sen scored a landslide victory in the Cambodian general elections. Three factors in particular explain this outcome. First, the elimination of the main opposition party, whose strategy of a peaceful election boycott failed. Second, favorable economic conditions and government handouts of spoils to constitu...
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S u s t a i n a b l e Go v e r n a n c e I n d i c a t o r s 2 0 1 8 J a p a n R e p o r t We r n e r P a s c h a , P a t r i c k K ö l l n e r , A u r e l C r o i s s a n t (C o o r d i n a t o r) Download the 2018 Japan report at: http://www.sgi-network.org/docs/2018/country/SGI2018_Japan.pdf
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Zusammenfassung Welchen Beitrag leisten institutionen- und legitimationsorientierte Ansätze der Autoritarismusforschung für die Erklärung von Einkommensumverteilung in Nichtdemokratien? Diese Frage untersucht der vorliegende Beitrag im Zeitraum von 1960 bis 2010 für 122 Autokratien weltweit. Die Literatur erwartet, dass nominelldemokratische Instit...
Book
Cambridge Core - Asian Studies - Civil–Military Relations in Southeast Asia - by Aurel Croissant
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In nonviolent mass protests against dictators, the military is the ultimate arbiter of regime survival. Drawing on a global survey of forty "dictator's endgames" from 1946 to 2014, this essay examines how dictators and their militaries respond to popular protests, and what the consequences are in terms of the survival of authoritarianism or the eme...
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After local elections in 2017, the Cambodian People's Party intensified its attacks on free media, NGOs, and the Cambodian National Rescue Party. Meanwhile, stronger links to China and waning Western leverage are enabling Prime Minister Hun Sen to transform the post-1993 multiparty system into a patrimonial dictatorship. Cambodia enjoyed strong eco...
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This article introduces a configurative theory to explain military reactions to nonviolent mass protests in dictatorships. An empirical analysis of three cases of such “dictators endgames” (Burma in 1988, Sudan in 1985, and East Germany in 1989), shows that militaries will defend the dictator against the masses if the military leadership’s physical...
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Southeast Asia as a region varies widely in its cultures, history, and political institutions. Due to this variety of regime types and the large variance of theoretically relevant explanatory factors, Southeast Asia presents political scientists with a “natural laboratory.” Levels of socioeconomic modernization, paths to state and nation-building,...
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The political system of Singapore appears to contradict conventional wisdom in political science. Despite a very high level of social and economic modernization, a small group of administrative and political elites governs the city-state autocratically. Despite its authoritarian regime type, it scores well on established measures for the rule of la...
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The Democratic Republic of Timor-Leste is the newest state in Southeast Asia. After more than two decades of Indonesian occupation, the country transitioned to independence and democratic government under the aegis of the United Nations. Since it gained independence in 2002, the Democratic Republic of Timor-Leste has strived to create a democratic...
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Vietnam is a communist one-party regime in transition. With the implementation of doi moi, the Communist Party of Vietnam replaced a centrally planned economy with a “socialist-oriented market economy.” The transition from a fully planned economy to a mixed economy generated dynamic economic growth and socioeconomic modernization that puts the Comm...
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Despite some initial progress in the 1990s, Thailand’s process of democratization regressed in the 2000s, a process that cumulated in the collapse of civilian government and democratic rule after military political intervention in 2006 and 2014. Yet, the political developments of the past 15 years reflect a deeper crisis of legitimacy and identity...
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As a landlocked country with a sparsely populated hinterland, politicized ethnic identities, and a history of a weak central power, Laos struggles with unfavorable circumstances for economic development and is a case of peripheral socialism. Since the mid-1980s, the LPRP has de facto abandoned its socialist experiment and is searching for new sourc...
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The structures, processes, and actors of the political systems as well as the current political situation of 11 Southeast Asian countries differ widely. Still, this chapter aims to collect and connect insights from an in-depth study of the region and provide a comparative perspective. The deep and numerous political, economic, cultural, historical,...
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Despite the 30 years of democratic politics following the People’s Power Revolution in 1986, the political system of the Philippines remains a highly defective democracy. There are regular and strongly contested elections, and parties are free to organize and campaign for votes. There is a vibrant civil society, a pluralist media, and decentralizat...
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Following the genocidal reign of the Khmer Rouge, the Kingdom of Cambodia has experienced a threefold transformation in the last 25 years: from civil war to postwar reconstruction, from a socialist one-party state to a multiparty electoral system, and from a centrally planned economy to a market economy. After the end of the UNTAC period in 1993, t...
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As the only ruling monarchy in Southeast Asia, the Sultanate of Brunei seems a political anachronism in the region. Yet it is also a beacon of political stability in Southeast Asia. Following recent studies on the stability of authoritarian regimes, which emphasize the importance of legitimation, co-optation, and repression for the reproduction of...
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The Republic of Indonesia is the world’s largest archipelagic state. It is the most populous Muslim-majority country in the world with a population of more than 250 Million and one of Southeast Asia’s ethnically most heterogeneous societies. It is also the largest economy in the region and is regarded one of only a few relatively stable and well-fu...
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Compared to most other political systems in Southeast Asia, Malaysian politics since 1957 has exhibited an unusually high degree of political and social stability. The elite pact between political, economic, and communal elites resulted in a political and economic order that protected the interests of both elites and their ethnic constituencies. Th...
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The Republic of the Union of Myanmar, known as Burma prior to 1989, is one of the ethnically most heterogeneous societies in Southeast Asia with 135 officially recognized nationalities. Since its independence in 1948, the multiethnic society has seen a high number of armed conflicts between the central government and a rich tapestry of different et...
Book
This textbook provides a comprehensive introduction to the political systems of all ASEAN countries and Timor-Leste from a comparative perspective. It investigates the political institutions, actors and processes in eleven states, covering democracies as well as autocratic regimes. Each country study includes an analysis of the current system of go...
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Studies of multiparty elections in authoritarian regimes have proliferated in recent years. Nevertheless, the available evidence remains inconclusive in terms of when, where, or why elections work to sustain or undermine authoritarian rule. The contributions to the special issue ‘State Capacity, Elections and the Resilience of Authoritarian Rule’ a...
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Our contribution aims to shed light onto two sets of questions for comparative study of autocratic regimes. First, how can different roles of the armed forces in authoritarian politics be conceptualized and measured, and are there different patterns of military influence across autocracies? Second, do different political roles of the armed forces h...
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Legitimität ist eine Schlüsselkategorie in Wolfgang Merkels Regimelehre. Seine These vom strukturell bedingten Legitimitätsnachteil autokratischer Systeme im Vergleich zu Demokratien ist in ein breiteres Programm der Analyse demokratischer und autokratischer Regimekonsolidierung eingebettet. Im vorliegenden Beitrag wird sie für Ost- und Südostasien...
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This book addresses the challenge of reforming defense and military policy-making in newly democratized nations. By tracing the development of civil-military relations in various new democracies from a comparative perspective, it links two bodies of scholarship that thus far have remained largely separate: the study of emerging (or failed) civilian...
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Der begriffliche Dreiklang Demokratie, Diktatur und Gerechtigkeit benennt zentrale, miteinander verknüpfte politikwissenschaftliche und gesellschaftspolitische Themen des 20. und 21. Jahrhunderts. Der Band bietet aus normativer, theoretischer und empirischer Perspektive innovative Fragestellungen und Erkenntnisse zu den unterschiedlichen Facetten d...
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The analysis of diffusion processes is an expanding field of research in the social and economic sciences. However, prolific scholarship has highlighted the transnational diffusion of policy innovations, but the insights provided – at least for policies – are limited by a ‘democracy bias’, that is, the focus of most studies is on democracies. This...
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This article introduces the main themes of the special section ‘The Global Diffusion of Policies, Practices and Values: Democracies and Autocracies Compared’. It discusses various strenghts and shortcomings of the existing research, outlines the unifying research questions that tie the various contributions to this special section together and brie...
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Have militaries become tired of interfering in politics? The declining number of military regimes and military coups implies a decrease in the influence of armed forces on political regimes. Yet, case and area studies underline that militaries still exert considerable influence on politics all over the world. This research note addresses this appar...
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After years of short-lived cabinets, the 2012 general election led to a stable coalition including the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) and the Komeito. The coalition under Prime Minister Shinzo Abe has also benefited from a majority in the second chamber since the 2013 upper-house election, giving it a strong basis to pursue its ambitious economic...
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Dieses Kapitel zieht ein vergleichendes Resümee der vorangegangenen Betrachtungen. Aufgrund der historischen, sozialen, kulturellen und wirtschaftlichen Heterogenität der Region, sowie ihrer politischen Systeme, entzieht sich die vergleichende Analyse handlichen Generalisierungen. Dennoch ist es möglich, aus vergleichender Perspektive Rückschlüsse...
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Für die vergleichende Politikwissenschaft ist Singapur ein aufregender Fall. Seit der Unabhängigkeit 1965 hat sich der Stadt- und Inselstaat zu einem der wohlhabendsten nicht-ölexportierenden Länder weltweit entwickelt. Dennoch weist das politische System die Merkmale einer elektoralen Autokratie auf. Die Kombination von persistenter autoritärer He...
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Die Philippinen sind die am längsten von kolonialen Erfahrungen geprägte Gesellschaft Südostasiens. Das Kapitel analysiert die spanische und amerikanische Kolonialherrschaft, sowie die Entwicklung der ersten philippinischen Demokratie nach 1946 und ihre Ablösung durch das autoritäre Marcos-Regime. Der Schwerpunkt der Analyse liegt jedoch auf den po...
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Malaysia hat eines der ältesten kompetitiv-autoritären Regime weltweit, das über viele Jahrzehnte hinweg die friedliche Konfliktbewältigung in der ethnisch segmentierten („pluralen“) Gesellschaft des Landes gewährleistete. Stabilisierend wirkte vor allem der in der Frühphase der Staatsbildung geschlossene Elitenpakt („The Bargain“) von Teileliten d...
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Dieses Kapitel analysiert das politische System des malaiisch-islamischen Sultanats Brunei Darussalam. Zunächst wird die historische Entwicklung von der Kolonialzeit bis zur Unabhängigkeit des Kleinstaates im Jahre 1984 dargestellt und die Struktur des bruneiischen Rentenstaats ausgeleuchtet, dessen Wohlstand hauptsächlich auf dem Export von Erdöl...
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Die Analyse zivil-militärischer Beziehungen als Teilgebiet der Vergleichenden Politikwissenschaft beschäftigt sich mit einem zentralen Ordnungsproblem moderner Gesellschaften. Im Zentrum steht die doppelte Herausforderung der Institutionalisierung politischer Kontrolle über das Militär und der Gewährleistung effektiver Sicherheit für den Nationalst...
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Institutionalizing civilian control over the military is a crucial challenge for newly democratized nations. This paper aims to answer the question under which conditions civilian control can be established after the transition to democracy, and under which conditions civilian control fails. To answer this question, we draw on original data on civi...
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Ost-Timor ist der jüngste Staat Südostasiens und neben Brunei der zweite Rentenstaat in der Region. Das Kapitel untersucht zunächst den Prozess der Staatswerdung von der portugiesischen Kolonialherrschaft bis zum Ende der UNTAET-Mission im Jahre 2002. Die nachfolgenden Ausführungen konzentrieren sich auf die Funktionsweise des Verfassungs- und Rech...
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Indonesien ist eine von aktuell drei Demokratien in Südostasien. Das Kapitel zeichnet die politische Entwicklung des Landes von der Kolonialzeit bis zum Ende des autoritären Suharto-Regimes (1998), sowie den Prozess der demokratischen Transition nach. Im Anschluss wird die Verfassungsgeschichte des Landes ausgeleuchtet. Es folgt die Darstellung des...
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Drei Argumentationsschritte strukturieren dieses Kapitel. Zuerst wird ein Überblick der historischen Ursprünge der elf Staaten Südostasiens von der Kolonialzeit bis in die Gegenwart geboten. Hierdurch werden die kritischen Vorbedingungen herausgearbeitet, die die Entwicklung der heutigen politischen Systeme beeinflusst haben und sie bis in die Gege...
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Dieses Kapitel analysiert das politische System des Königreichs Thailand. Nachdem das Land in den 1990er Jahren einen Demokratisierungsprozess durchlaufen hatte und mit der Verfassungsreform von 1997 auf dem Weg zum konsolidierten demokratischen Verfassungsstaat schien, ist das Königreich seit zehn Jahren beträchtlichen politischen Erschütterungen...
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Ausgehend von einer Darstellung der historischen Ursprünge und Entwicklung der Herrschaft der Kommunistischen Partei Vietnams zeichnet dieses Kapitel den Prozess politischen und sozialen Wandels seit der Einleitung der Wirtschaftsreformen im Jahre 1986 nach. Das politische System und das politische Regime werden unter dem Gesichtspunkt institutione...
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Das Königreich Kambodscha ist eine von zwei Wahlmonarchien in Südostasien. Kambodscha durchlief in den 1990er Jahren einen Demokratisierungsprozess unter Aufsicht der Vereinten Nationen. Allerdings wurde die fragile Demokratie bereits nach wenigen Jahren von einem kompetitiv-autoritären Regime abgelöst, das institutionelle Elemente von Demokratie m...
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Myanmar ist der exemplarische Fall eines prätorianischen Systems, in dem das Militär seit vielen Jahrzehnten Staat, Wirtschaft und Gesellschaft beherrscht. Gegenwärtig durchläuft das Land jedoch eine vom Militär eingeleitete politische Liberalisierung. Sie hat zur Konstitutionalisierung der autoritären Herrschaft, der Einführung von Wahlen und eine...
Book
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Aufgrund ihrer wachsenden wirtschaftlichen Bedeutung, als Ort dramatischer Demokratisierungsprozesse und als Schauplatz im "Kampf gegen den Terror" ist das Interesse an Südostasien in den vergangenen Jahren stetig gewachsen. Dieses Buch bietet eine Einführung in die vergleichende Analyse der politischen Systeme in der Region. Die analytische Perspe...
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‘Conflict and security statistics’ refers to empirical data collected and processed for the quantitative and qualitative analysis of the causes, dynamics, and consequences of international and intranational conflicts and for policy making with regard to early warning, risk assessment, as well as conflict and postconflict management. Security in a b...
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Im Gefolge der jüngst ausgerufenen „historischen Wende in den Demokratisierungsstudien“ (Cappocia/Ziblatt 2010) sowie der neuen Popularität des Konzepts der Pfadabhängigkeit in der Variante des Historischen Institutionalismus hat die Transformationsforschung die Erbschaften (legacies) vorangegangener Regime als einen wichtigen Faktor in der Analyse...
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Executive Summary After years of short-lived cabinets (2007 to 2012), the 2012 lower house parliamentary elections led to a stable coalition of the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) and Komeito (NK). The coalition under Prime Minister Shinzo Abe has also benefited from a majority in the second chamber since the 2013 upper house elections, giving it a...
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Der Beitrag analysiert die Determinanten autokratischer Herrschaftssicherung im Umfeld autokratischer Wahlen. Eingebettet in ein Modell, das Repression, Legitimation und Kooptation als Stützen autokratischer Herrschaft identifiziert, werden Regressionsanalysen für bis zu 265 Wahlen in 68 hegemonialen und kompetitiven Autokratien zwischen 1990 und 2...
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This article analyses eleven cases of constitution-making in eight Southeast Asian countries since 1986. It investigates design choices and actors’ interests, the link between the form of the political regime and the extent to which process designs matter for the legitimacy of the constitutional orders in the region. In doing so, the article demons...
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Die Analyse zivil-militärischer Beziehungen als Teilgebiet der Vergleichenden Politikwissenschaft beschäftigt sich mit einem zentralen Ordnungsproblem moderner Gesellschaften. Im Zentrum steht die doppelte Herausforderung der Institutionalisierung politischer Kontrolle über das Militär und der Gewährleistung effektiver Sicherheit für den Nationalst...

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Projects

Projects (10)
Project
Interdisciplinary and cross-regional project on political corruption. This particular project is part of a work package.
Project
Comparative analysis of democratic recession, democratic breakdown and autocratic consolidion in the post-WW2 period.
Project
The volume offers case studies and comparative analyses of the relationship between state building, stateness and democracy in Cambodia, East Timor, Indonesia, South Korea, Taiwan, Thailand, and the Philippines. First, it discusses the state of democracy in the region. Second, it investigates the state of the state in East Asia, again with a comparative view on other regions and the “third wave” democracies there. Third, it demonstrates that stateness is neither a sufficient nor a necessary condition for democratic consolidation. While consolidating democracies can continue to suffer from path-dependent deficits, irrespective of high levels of stateness, the investigation of autocratic reversal reveals that high levels of stateness are no guarantee that political regimes will continue on the path of democratization. When centralized particularistic networks have infiltrated key public organizations, non-democratic elites can use these networks to coordinate a return to autocratic rule. In addition, defective democracies can be sustained even under very low levels of stateness. This has to do with the organization of particularistic networks at the systemic level: when control over these networks is fragmented, elites will institutionalize political competition as a mechanism to share the particularistic spoils of office and minimalist electoral democracies – which is the predominant outcome of the third wave of democratization – can be caught in a “predatory state” trap.