Atish R. Ghosh

• International Monetary Fund

This paper analyzes the use of unconventional policy instruments in New Keynesian setups in which the “divine coincidence” breaks down. The paper discusses the role of a second instrument that, in addition to the effect of conventional interest rate policy, may enter the Phillips curve, the investment–saving (IS) curve, and the welfare function, th...

This paper investigates why controls on capital inflows have a bad name by tracing how capital controls have been used and perceived since the laissez-faire era of the classical gold standard. While advanced economies often employed capital controls to tame inflows during the last century, we conjecture that several factors undermined their subsequ...

We develop an open‐economy New Keynesian Model with foreign exchange (FX) intervention in the presence of a financial accelerator and shocks to risk appetite in international capital markets. We obtain closed‐form solutions for optimal monetary and FX intervention policies assuming the central bank cannot commit to future policies, and we compare t...

Governments issue debt for good and bad reasons. While the good reasons—intertemporal tax smoothing, fiscal stimulus, and asset management—can explain some of the increases in public debt observed in recent years, they cannot account for all of the observed changes. Bad reasons for borrowing are driven by political failures associated with intergen...

This chapter examines whether the source or the type of inflow of the capital inflow to emerging economies makes any difference to the consequences of the capital flow. Our results, based on a sample of 53 emerging markets over 1980–2013, show that when it comes to the source of the inflow, the macroeconomic and financial-stability consequences of...

We analyze the optimal intervention policy for an emerging market central bank that wishes to stabilize the exchange rate during a capital outflow episode, but possesses limited reserves. We show that adding a non-negativity constraint on reserves onto a simple linear-quadratic framework generates a time consistency problem. A central bank with ful...

Milton Friedman argued that flexible exchange rates facilitate external adjustment. Recent studies find surprisingly little robust evidence that they do. We argue that this is because they use composite (“multilateral”) exchange rate regime classifications, which often mask heterogeneous bilateral relationships between countries. Constructing a nov...

This chapter presents a welfare-theoretic framework for considering optimal policies to address balance-sheet vulnerabilities. As capital inflows accumulate into stocks of liabilities, they can result in balance-sheet vulnerabilities: heavy indebtedness or maturity or currency mismatches relative to the balance sheet or repayment capacity of the bo...

This chapter examines the drivers of exceptionally large net capital flows—surges—to emerging market economies. Most surges to emerging markets are driven by foreign investors rather than by retrenchment of domestic residents liquidating their investments abroad. Moreover, while both domestic and foreign investors respond to global and local factor...

This chapter summarizes how thinking about capital flows and their management has evolved in both policymaking and academic circles. Many advanced economies used restrictions on capital inflows for prudential purposes—even as they pursued financial liberalization more broadly—until the 1980s, when capital account restrictions began to be swept away...

This chapter addresses whether foreign exchange (FX) intervention—and, more generally, activist policies including the use of macroprudential measures and capital controls—is really incompatible with an inflation-targeting (IT) framework. While a purist view of inflation targeting would argue for the central bank to use only its policy interest rat...

This chapter discusses international spillovers, the multilateral impact of individual countries' policies, and the scope for international policy cooperation. Theory and empirics suggests that recipient countries would benefit from coordinating their policy responses to capital inflows. Specifically, because of spillovers of one country's measures...

This concluding chapter argues that the policy makers' vade mecum laid out in the previous chapter raises broader issues for the global monetary system. Notwithstanding the fact that some of the emerging markets may have liberalized their capital accounts prematurely, it questions whether emerging markets have further to gain from opening up, or in...

This chapter provides concrete policy advice for dealing with capital inflows. In sum, once the monetary authorities have allowed the exchange rate to appreciate to a level that is not undervalued from a multilaterally consistent medium-term perspective, they may want to start intervening in the foreign exchange (FX) market to prevent further appre...

This chapter explores the macroeconomic and financial-stability consequences of capital inflows in emerging market economies (EMEs), and how these translate into greater risk of crisis, both generally and particularly after surge episodes. Capital inflows can lead to macroeconomic imbalances—positive output gaps and overheating of the economy, curr...

While always episodic in nature, capital flows to emerging market economies have been especially volatile since the global financial crisis. After peaking at $680 billion in 2007, flows to emerging markets turned negative at the onset of crisis in 2008, then rebounded only to recede again during the U.S. sovereign debt downgrade in 2011. Since then...

This chapter discusses a simple theoretical framework linking capital flows and various policy measures to macroeconomic outcomes. In the face of macroeconomic imbalances, policy makers need to decide whether to try to reduce the volume of flows or to tackle any collateral damage that they may cause. If the inflows are such that they bring little g...

This chapter assesses evidence on the effectiveness of various policy tools—foreign exchange (FX) intervention, nondiscriminatory macroprudential policies, capital controls, and currency-based prudential measures. When it comes to macroeconomic imbalances, sterilized FX intervention can be used to mitigate currency-appreciation pressures, and both...

This chapter examines how emerging markets typically respond to capital inflows in practice. Confronted by an inflow surge, national authorities respond through a combination of policy instruments—both macroeconomic tools and less orthodox measures. While the thrust of the policy responses across countries is largely the same, there are differences...

The workhorse open economy macromodel suggests that capital inflows are contractionary because they appreciate the currency and reduce net exports. Emerging market policy makers, however, believe that inflows lead to credit booms and rising output, and the evidence appears to go their way. To reconcile theory and reality, we extend the set of asset...

Why have emerging market economies (EMEs) been stockpiling international reserves? We find that motives have varied over time; vulnerability to current account shocks was relatively important in the 1980s but, as EMEs became more financially integrated, factors related to the magnitude of potential capital outflows gained importance. Reserve accumu...

This chapter examines India’s experience with capital account liberalization, and management of capital flows. Aware of the risks posed by capital flows, Indian policy makers have taken a cautious approach to capital account liberalization-with inflows liberalized before outflows, and within inflows, equity flows, especially direct investment, pref...

We investigate in a sample of 53 emerging markets over 1980-2014 whether countries with open capital accounts are necessarily at the mercy of global events, or are able to take policy actions when receiving inflows to mitigate the impact of a subsequent reversal. Our analysis suggests that, while changes in global conditions have an important beari...

The workhorse open-economy macro model suggests that capital inn ows are contractionary because they appreciate the currency and reduce net exports. Emerging market policy makers however believe that inn ows lead to credit booms and rising output, and the evidence appears to go their way. To reconcile theory and reality, we extend the set of assets...

This paper investigates why controls on capital inflows have a bad name, and evoke such visceral opposition, by tracing how capital controls have been used and perceived, since the late nineteenth century. While advanced countries often employed capital controls to tame speculative inflows during the last century, we conjecture that several factors...

This paper analyzes the use of unconventional policy instruments in New Keynesian setups in which the ‘divine coincidence’ breaks down. The paper discusses the role of a second instrument and its coordination with conventional interest rate policy, and presents theoretical results on equilibrium determinacy, the inflation bias, the stabilizatio...

While capital flows to emerging markets bring numerous benefits, they are also known to create macroeconomic imbalances (economic overheating, currency overvaluation) and increase financial vulnerabilities (domestic credit growth, bank leverage, foreign currency-denominated lending). But are all inflows the same? In this paper, we examine whether t...

Notwithstanding a handful of exceptions, examples of international macro policy coordination have been few. Why is this so? We argue that the most compelling reasons are asymmetries in country size; disagreement about the economic situation and cross-border transmission effects of policies; and often policymakers' failure to recognize that they fac...

This paper examines the case for using two instruments—the policy interest rate and sterilized foreign exchange market intervention—in emerging market countries seeking to stabilize inflation and output while attenuating disequilibrium currency movements. We estimate policy reaction functions for central banks, documenting that indeed both instrume...

What considerations should guide public debt policy going forward? Should debt be reduced to achieve normative anchors (such as 60 percent of GDP), should it be increased further to finance a big public investment push, or should the existing debt be serviced forever? We argue that, for countries with ample fiscal space (little risk of encountering...

Financial bailouts and budget deficits during the Great Recession have resulted in some of the highest public debt ratios seen in advanced economies in the past 40 years. Recent debates have centered on the pace at which to pay down this debt, with few questions being asked about the desirable level of public debt to which the economy should conver...

The workhorse open-economy macro model suggests that capital inflows are contractionary because they appreciate the currency and reduce net exports. Emerging market policy makers however believe that inflows lead to credit booms and rising output, and the evidence appears to go their way. To reconcile theory and reality, we extend the set of assets...

Against the backdrop of increasingly volatile capital flows to emerging market economies (EMEs), this note proposes three principles to guide policy: (i) neither capital controls nor other policies should be used to avoid warranted external adjustment; (ii) both residency-based capital controls and non-residency based prudential measures may be nec...

To maintain price and exchange rate stability, many emerging market and developing countries (EMDCs) de facto peg their exchange rates, intervening in the foreign exchange markets, but without formally committing to a peg. But in doing so, are they foregoing important benefits in terms of lower inflation? We argue that the de jure commitment, by ma...

Popular perception is that emerging market economies (EMEs), and Asian Pacific Rim countries—China, Indonesia, Korea, Malaysia, Philippines, Thailand, and Vietnam (RIMs)—in particular, have been rapidly accumulating reserves, perhaps beyond what is justified by precautionary motives. This paper compares and contrasts the determinants of the demand...

This paper revisits the bipolar prescription for exchange rate regime choice and asks two questions: Are the poles of hard pegs and pure floats still safer than the middle? And where to draw the line between safe floats and risky intermediate regimes? Our findings, based on a sample of 50 emerging market economies over 1980–2011, show that macroeco...

This paper examines whether cross-border capital flows can be regulated by imposing capital account restrictions (CARs) in both source and recipient countries, as was originally advocated by John Maynard Keynes and Harry Dexter White. To this end, we use data on bilateral cross-border bank flows from 31 source to 76 recipient (advanced and emerging...

Milton Friedman argued that flexible exchange rates would facilitate external adjustment. Recent studies find surprisingly little robust evidence that they do. We argue that this is because they use composite (or aggregate) exchange rate regime classifications, which often mask very heterogeneous bilateral relationships between countries. Construct...

We examine how membership in a currency union affects public debt sustainability and market assessments of default risk in eurozone countries. We argue that there exist offsetting effects: expectations of bailouts tend to make a given level of debt more sustainable, lowering bond yields and CDS rates, but constraints on the use of monetary policy w...

We argue that evidence on whether floating exchange rates facilitate external adjustment is contradictory because existing regime classifications do not adequately capture exchange rate flexibility relevant to external adjustment. Using a trade-weighted bilateral exchange rate volatility measure, we show that exchange rate flexibility indeed matter...

In bilateral and multilateral surveillance, countries are often urged to consider alternative policies that would result in superior outcomes for the country itself and, perhaps serendipitously, for the world economy. While it is possible that policy makers in the country do not fully recognize the benefits of proposed alternative policies, it is a...

We examine whether macroprudential policies and capital controls can enhance financial stability in the face of the risks typically associated with large capital inflows. We construct new indices of foreign currency (FX)-related prudential measures, domestic prudential measures, and financial-sector specific capital controls for 51 emerging market...

Why have emerging market economies (EMEs) been stockpiling international reserves? We find that motives have varied over time?vulnerability to current account shocks was relatively important in the 1980s but, as EMEs have become more financially integrated, factors related to the magnitude of potential capital outflows have gained in importance. Re...

This paper examines why surges in capital flows to emerging market economies (EMEs) occur, and what determines the allocation of capital across countries during such surge episodes. We use two different methodologies to identify surges in EMEs over 1980-2009, differentiating between those mainly caused by changes in the country's external liabiliti...

Staff Discussion Notes showcase the latest policy-related analysis and research being developed by individual IMF staff and are published to elicit comment and to further debate. These papers are generally brief and written in nontechnical language, and so are aimed at a broad audience interested in economic policy issues. This Web-only series repl...

How should emerging market countries handle surges in capital inflows that may pose both prudential and macroeconomic policy challenges? We review the arguments on the appropriate management of inflow surges and discuss the conditions under which controls on capital inflows may be appropriate. We argue that if the economy is operating near potentia...

We examine whether macroprudential policies and capital controls can contribute to enhancing financial stability in the face of large capital inflows. We construct new indices of foreign currency (FX)-related prudential measures, domestic prudential measures, and financial-sector capital controls for 51 emerging market economies over the period 199...

This paper reviews the International Monetary Fund (IMF) policy advice to emerging market economies (EMEs) during the 2008-09 crisis, contrasting it to previous crisis episodes. EMEs that had strong fundamentals, and were mainly affected through international trade and financial spillovers, were advised to loosen monetary and fiscal policies, much...

This paper revisits the link between the nominal exchange rate regime and inflation, based on a sample of 145 emerging market and developing countries (EMDCs) over the period 1980-2010. We contend that, just as a de jure peg that is not backed by a de facto peg will have little value, de facto pegs that lack the corresponding de jure will likewise...

How high can public debt rise without compromising fiscal solvency? We answer this question using a stochastic ability-to-pay model of sovereign default in which risk-neutral investors lend to a government that displays “fiscal fatigue,” because its ability to increase primary balances cannot keep pace with rising debt. As a result, the government...

This paper analyzes the management of surges in capital inflows to Emerging Markets. It reviews the main policy tools, including fiscal and monetary policy, exchange rate policy, foreign exchange market intervention, domestic prudential regulation, and capital controls. A key conclusion is that, if the economy is operating near potential, if the le...

This paper analyzes the management of surges in capital inflows to Emerging Markets. It reviews the main policy tools, including fiscal and monetary policy, exchange rate policy, foreign exchange market intervention, domestic prudential regulation, and capital controls. A key conclusion is that, if the economy is operating near potential, if the le...

Staff Position Notes (SPNs) showcase new policy-related analysis and research by IMF departments. These notes are generally brief, written in nontechnical language, and are aimed at a broad audience interested in economic policy issues, including staff involved in mission work, members of the Executive Board, and persons outside the Fund. This seri...

The stability of the overall system of exchange rates along three dimensions is reviewed. First, individual countries' choice of exchange rate regime should help them achieve their domestic macroeconomic goals, such as price stability and sustained output growth. Second, it should facilitate the country's interaction with the rest of the system, al...

This paper conducts a comprehensive empirical analysis to examine the stability of the overall system of exchange rates along two dimensions: does the choice of exchange rate regime help individual countries achieve their domestic macroeconomic goals? And does this choice of regime facilitate the country's interaction with the rest of the system? T...

Policy advice to emerging market countries in the current crisis : what’s new ? what’s different ? why ? IMF policy advice to EMEs in this crisis has been differed from that provided in previous EME crises. But these differences are largely driven by changed circumstances. Many EMEs are experiencing the current crisis as a wholly exogenous shock :...

Recent research has found that current account balances under flexible regimes seem to be no less persistent than under fixed regimes. This result appears to undermine Milton Friedman’s well known — and commonly accepted — claim that flexible exchange rates facilitate the adjustment of external imbalances. Should we then dismiss Friedman’s case for...

This chapter examines whether lower inflation under currency boards compared to other regimes is associated with the currency board regime itself or the result of other determinants of inflation or possible simultaneity bias. The evidence suggests that the relationship between currency boards and good inflation performance is robust and causal. Con...

This chapter looks at Estonia’s adoption of a currency board arrangement in 1992. The discussions cover the board’s structure, monetary and banking policies, adjustments to the way of the European Monetary Union (EMU), and the board’s impact on macroeconomic performance.

This chapter examines the history of currency boards to provide context for a discussion on modern currency boards and determine if any lessons can be learnt from past experiences. It compares early and modern boards and then looks at the specific case of the creation of the West African Currency Board (WACB) in 1912. It shows that during a period...

This chapter presents theoretical arguments to explain why countries may or may not opt for a currency board arrangement. The adoption of a currency board arrangement can be seen as being based on two distinct decisions: first, the choice of a fixed over a floating exchange rate regime; and, second, within the spectrum of pegged exchange rate regim...

This chapter examines Lithuania’s adoption of a currency board arrangement on April 1, 1994. The discussions looks at the board’s structure, monetary and banking policies, the exit debate and preparation for the European Monetary Union (EMU), and the board’s impact on macroeconomic performance.

This chapter considers the possibility that the strong inflation and growth performance of euro currency boards may be due to outside factors common to all the transition economies of central Europe, with the boards playing only a minor role. It does so by placing the experience of the euro boards in the context of the overall performance of the ce...