Ashley Akbari

Swansea University | SWAN · Swansea University Medical School

Background Most people living with multiple long-term condition multimorbidity (MLTC-M) are under 65 (defined as ‘early onset’). Earlier and greater accrual of long-term conditions (LTCs) may be influenced by the timing and nature of exposure to key risk factors, wider determinants or other LTCs at different life stages. We have established a resea...

Objectives Using anonymised linked data across primary care general practice (GP) and local authority (LA) services to (1) identify unpaid carers in Swansea and Neath Port Talbot (NPT), (2) describe their health and health service use and, (3) compare these with a matched non-carer population. Methods Unpaid carers were identified using a) LA care...

Objectives‘ Long COVID’ (LC) is broadly defined as signs and symptoms that continue or develop after the acute phase of COVID-19, and can affect cardiovascular, respiratory and other organ systems. Using electronic health records, we investigated clinical coding of LC in primary and secondary care for the population of Wales. Methods We conducted...

Background Multimorbidity, smoking status, and pregnancy are identified as three risk factors associated with more severe outcomes following a SARS-CoV-2 infection, thus vaccination uptake is crucial for pregnant women living with multimorbidity and a history of smoking. This study aimed to examine the impact of multimorbidity, smoking status, and...

Objective: Social, biological and environmental factors in early-life, defined as the period from preconception until age 18, play a role in shaping the risk of multiple long-term condition multimorbidity. However, there is a need to conceptualise these early-life factors, how they relate to each other, and provide conceptual framing for future re...

Objective To develop a novel pathway linking genetic data with routinely collected data for people with epilepsy. To analyse the influence of rare, deleterious genetic variants on epilepsy outcomes. Methods We linked whole‐exome sequencing data with routinely collected primary and secondary care data and natural language processing derived seizure...

Objective: to introduce directed hypergraphs as a novel tool for assessing the temporal relationships between coincident diseases, addressing the need for a more accurate representation of multimorbidity and leveraging the growing availability of electronic healthcare databases and improved computational resources. Methods: directed hypergraphs off...

This Data Insight has been produced by the ADR Wales Major Societal Challenges research team. It provides a snapshot of research, giving an overview of the availability and capture of data. This research forms part of the ongoing ADR Wales programme of work. The information presented in this Data Insight has been reviewed by ADR Wales colleagues an...

Purpose Public health measures instituted at the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic in the UK in 2020 had profound effects on the cancer patient pathway. We hypothesise that this may have affected analgesic prescriptions for cancer patients in primary care. Methods A whole-nation retrospective, observational study of opioid and antineuropathic analges...

Introduction Shielding aimed to protect those predicted to be at highest risk from COVID-19 and was uniquely implemented in the UK during the first year of the pandemic from March 2020. As the first stage in the EVITE Immunity evaluation (Effects of shielding for vulnerable people during COVID-19 pandemic on health outcomes, costs and immunity, inc...

Background: Concerns have been raised that antipsychotic drug prescribing, which has been associated with increased mortality in people with dementia, might have increased during the COVID-19 pandemic due to social restrictions imposed to limit the spread of SARS-CoV-2. We used multisource, routinely collected health-care data from Wales, UK to in...

Background Understanding and quantifying the differences in disease development in different socioeconomic groups of people across the lifespan is important for planning healthcare and preventive services. The study aimed to measure chronic disease accrual, and examine the differences in time to individual morbidities, multimorbidity, and mortality...

Objective To estimate vaccine effectiveness for preventing covid-19 related hospital admission in individuals first infected with the SARS-CoV-2 virus during pregnancy compared with those of reproductive age who were not pregnant when first infected with the virus. Design Population based cohort study. Setting Office for National Statistics Publi...

Transactional theory and the coercive family process model have illustrated how the parent-child relationship is reciprocal. Emerging research using advanced statistical methods has examined these theories, but further investigations are necessary. In this study, we utilised linked health data on maternal mental health disorders and explored their...

Background: To inform targeted public health strategies, it is crucial to understand how coexisting diseases develop over time and their associated impacts on patient outcomes and health-care resources. This study aimed to examine how psychosis, diabetes, and congestive heart failure, in a cluster of physical-mental health multimorbidity, develop...

Objectives: We investigated SARS-CoV-2 infection trends, risk of SARS-CoV-2 infection and COVID-19 vaccination uptake among school staff, students and their household members in Wales, UK. Design: Seven-day average of SARS-CoV-2 infections and polymerase chain reaction tests per 1000 people daily, cumulative incidence of COVID-19 vaccination upt...

Background The COVID‐19 pandemic has profoundly impacted the lives of people living with dementia (PLWD). Mitigating measures have led to extreme social isolation and reduced or limited capacity within routine health and social care services. Using anonymised individual‐level, population‐scale linked electronic healthcare, demographic and mortality...

Natural environments can promote well-being through multiple mechanisms. Many studies have investigated relationships between residential green/blue space (GBS) and well-being, fewer explore relationships with actual use of GBS. We used a nationally representative survey, the National Survey for Wales, anonymously linked with spatial GBS data to in...

Objectives To quantify population health risks for domiciliary care workers (DCWs) in Wales, UK, working during the COVID-19 pandemic. Design A population-level retrospective study linking occupational registration data to anonymised electronic health records maintained by the Secure Anonymised Information Linkage Databank in a privacy-protecting...

Introduction: At the start of the COVID-19 pandemic there was an urgent need to identify individuals at highest risk of severe outcomes, such as hospitalisation and death following infection. The QCOVID risk prediction algorithms emerged as key tools in facilitating this which were further developed during the second wave of the COVID-19 pandemic...

Background: Even though antithrombotic therapy has probably little or even negative effects on the well-being of people with cancer during their last year of life, deprescribing antithrombotic therapy at the end of life is rare in practice. It is often continued until death, possibly resulting in excess bleeding, an increased disease burden and hi...

Background: There is variance in the incidence of lower extremity amputation across and within countries including within the UK. National data shows up to a fourfold variance in the amputation rate throughout the regions of England and differences in amputation incidence have been reported in Scotland and Ireland. Lower extremity amputation rate h...

Aims Atrial fibrillation (AF) is an important risk factor for stroke, which is commonly asymptomatic, particularly in older patients, and often undetected until cardiovascular events occur. Development of novel technology has helped to improve detection of AF. However, the longer-term benefit of systematic ECG screening on cardiovascular outcomes i...

Introduction: Children with visible facial differences are believed to be at increased risk of negative psychosocial behaviours which may manifest as affective disorders. The aim of this study was to determine whether a diagnosis of microtia, and the associated surgical intervention, is associated with psychosocial implications including impaired e...

Aims In patients with non-valvular atrial fibrillation (NVAF) prescribed warfarin the association between guideline defined INR control and adverse outcomes in unknown. We aimed to (i) determine stroke and systemic embolism (SSE) and bleeding events in NVAF patients prescribed warfarin; (ii) estimate the increased risk of these adverse events assoc...

The schools-based influenza vaccination programme has seen consistently high uptake in Wales, however coverage in preschool two and three-year olds is lower. One health board area (Cwm Taf University Health Board (UHB)) developed an intervention to offer live attenuated influenza vaccine (LAIV) for three-year olds attending nursery schools alongsid...

Purpose: People with epilepsy (PWE) are at increased risk of severe COVID-19. Assessing COVID-19 vaccine uptake is therefore important. We compared COVID-19 vaccination uptake for PWE in Wales with a matched control cohort. Methods: We performed a retrospective, population, cohort study using linked, anonymised, Welsh electronic health records w...

Background Response to the early stages of the COVID-19 pandemic resulted in the temporary disruption of cancer screening in the UK, and strong public messaging to stay safe and to protect NHS capacity. Following reintroduction in services, we explored the impact on inequalities in uptake of the Bowel Screening Wales (BSW) programme to identify gro...

The uptake of COVID-19 vaccination in Wales is high at a population level but many inequalities exist. Household composition may be an important factor in COVID-19 vaccination uptake due to the practical, social, and psychological implications associated with different living arrangements. In this study, the role of household composition in the upt...

Background: The EVITE Immunity study investigates the effects of shielding Clinically Extremely Vulnerable (CEV) people during the COVID-19 pandemic on health outcomes and healthcare costs in Wales, UK, to help prepare for future pandemics. Shielding was intended to protect those at highest risk of serious harm from COVID-19. We report the cost of...

Background COVID-19 is associated with a higher risk of cardiovascular outcomes in the general population. People with chronic respiratory disease have a higher risk of cardiovascular disease than the general population therefore, we investigated the association between pre-existing chronic respiratory disease and risk of cardiovascular events foll...

Background: Antipsychotic drugs have been associated with increased mortality, stroke and myocardial infarction in people with dementia. Concerns have been raised that antipsychotic prescribing may have increased during the COVID-19 pandemic due to social restrictions imposed to limit the spread of the virus. We used multisource, routinely-collecte...

Introduction: The UK shielding policy intended to protect people at the highest risk of harm from COVID-19 infection. We aimed to describe intervention effects in Wales at 1 year. Methods: Retrospective comparison of linked demographic and clinical data for cohorts comprising people identified for shielding from 23 March to 21 May 2020; and the...

Objective: To compare the effectiveness of molnupiravir, nirmatrelvir-ritonavir, and sotrovimab with no treatment in preventing hospital admission or death in higher-risk patients infected with SARS-CoV-2 in the community. Design: Retrospective cohort study of non-hospitalised adult patients with COVID-19 using the Secure Anonymised Information...

Objective To compare the effectiveness of molnupiravir, nirmatrelvir-ritonavir, and sotrovimab with no treatment in preventing hospital admission or death in higher-risk patients infected with SARS-CoV-2 in the community. Design Retrospective cohort study of non-hospitalised adult patients with COVID-19 using the Secure Anonymised Information Linka...

Background The COVID-19 pandemic has directly and indirectly had an impact on health service provision owing to surges and sustained pressures on the system. The effects of these pressures on the management of long-term or chronic conditions are not fully understood. Aim To explore the effects of COVID-19 on the recorded incidence of 17 long-term...

In this retrospective cohort study, we used the Secure Anonymised Information Linkage (SAIL) Databank to characterise and identify predictors of the one-year post-discharge healthcare resource utilisation (HRU) of adults who were admitted to critical care units in Wales between 1 April 2006 and 31 December 2017. We modelled one-year post-critical-c...

How the Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic has affected prevention and management of cardiovascular disease (CVD) is not fully understood. In this study, we used medication data as a proxy for CVD management using routinely collected, de-identified, individual-level data comprising 1.32 billion records of community-dispensed CVD medicatio...

Background Post-authorisation vaccine safety surveillance is well established for reporting common adverse events of interest (AEIs) following influenza vaccines, but not for COVID-19 vaccines. Aim To estimate the incidence of AEIs presenting to primary care following COVID-19 vaccination in England, and report safety profile differences between v...

This study aimed to estimate costs associated with managing patients with cellulitis from the UK National Health Service (NHS) perspective. The analysis was undertaken through the Secure Anonymised Information Linkage Databank, which brings together population-scale, individual-level anonymised linked data from a wide range of sources, including 80...

Background The CVD-COVID-UK consortium was formed to understand the relationship between COVID-19 and cardiovascular diseases through analyses of harmonised electronic health records (EHRs) across the four UK nations. Beyond COVID-19, data harmonisation and common approaches enable analysis within and across independent Trusted Research Environment...

Background From September 2021, Health Care Workers (HCWs) in Wales began receiving a COVID-19 booster vaccination. This is the first dose beyond the primary vaccination schedule. Given the emergence of new variants, vaccine waning vaccine, and increasing vaccination hesitancy, there is a need to understand booster vaccine uptake and subsequent bre...

Background Multimorbidity and pregnancy are two risk factors for more severe outcomes after a SARS-CoV-2 infection, thus vaccination uptake is important for pregnant women living with multimorbidity. This study aimed to examine the impact of multimorbidity, smoking status, and demographics (age, ethnic group, area of deprivation) on vaccine hesitan...

Abstract Background Vaccine hesitancy amongst pregnant women has been found to be a concern during past epidemics. This study aimed to (1) estimate COVID-19 vaccination rates among pregnant women in Wales and their association with age, ethnicity, and area of deprivation, using electronic health record (EHR) data linkage, and (2) explore pregnant w...

Background Injuries in children aged under 5 years most commonly occur in the home and disproportionately affect those living in the most disadvantaged communities. The ‘Safe at Home’ (SAH) national home safety equipment scheme, which ran in England between 2009 and 2011, has been shown to reduce injury-related hospital admissions, but there is lit...

Background Multimorbidity and pregnancy are two risk factors for more severe outcomes after a SARS-CoV-2 infection, thus vaccination uptake is important for pregnant women living with multimorbidity. This study aimed to examine the impact of multimorbidity, smoking status, and demographics (age, ethnic group, area of deprivation) on vaccine hesitan...

Objective To determine atrial fibrillation (AF) prevalence and temporal trends, and examine associations between AF and risk of adverse health outcomes in older care home residents. Methods Retrospective cohort study using anonymised linked data from the Secure Anonymised Information Linkage Databank on CARE home residents in Wales with AF (SAIL C...

Background dementia may increase care home residents’ risk of COVID-19, but there is a lack of evidence on this effect and on interactions with individual and care home-level factors. Methods we created a national cross-sectional retrospective cohort of care home residents in Wales for 1 September to 31 December 2020. Risk factors were analysed us...

Introduction Ethnicity information is recorded routinely in electronic health records (EHRs); however, to date, there is no national standard or framework for harmonisation of the existing records. Methods and analysis The national ethnicity-spine uses anonymised individual-level population-scale ethnicity data from 26 EHR available through the Sec...

Background The COVID-19 pandemic had direct and indirect effects on health. Indirect effects on long term medical conditions (LTCs) are unclear. We examined trends in recorded incidences of LTCs and quantified differences between expected rates and observed rates from 2020 onwards. Methods This is a population data linkage study using primary and...

Background Response to the COVID-19 pandemic resulted in the temporary disruption of routine services in the UK National Health Service, including cancer screening. Following the reintroduction of services, we explored the impact on inequalities in uptake of the Bowel Screening Wales (BSW) programme to identify groups who might benefit from tailore...

IntroductionHealthcare systems face rising demand and unsustainable cost pressures. In response, health policymakers are adopting Value-Based Health Care (VBHC), targeting available resources to achieve the best possible patient outcomes at the lowest possible cost and actively disinvesting in care of low-value. This requires the evaluation of long...

Domiciliary care workers (DCWs) continued to provide care to adults in their own homes throughout the COVID-19 pandemic. The evidence of the impact of COVID-19 on health outcomes of DCWs is currently mixed. The OSCAR study will quantify the impact of COVID-19 upon health outcomes of DCWs in Wales, explore causes of variation and extrapolate to the...

Aims Guidelines recommend anticoagulation (AC) in atrial fibrillation (AF) to reduce stroke and systemic embolism (SSE) risk; however, implementation has been slow across many populations. This study aimed to quantify the potential impact of changing prevalence of AF, associated risk, and AC prescribing on SSE hospitalizations and death. Methods a...

This report provides an updated picture of the scale and pattern of mothers in recurrent care proceedings in England and Wales. It uses full-service population data produced routinely by Cafcass and Cafcass Cymru. Descriptive statistics are combined with statistical analysis of women's risk of return to court.

Background Basal Cell Carcinoma (BCC) represents the most commonly occurring cancer worldwide within the Caucasian population. Reports predict 298 308 cases of BCC in the UK by 2025, at a cost of £265-366 million to the National Health Service (NHS). Despite the morbidity, societal and healthcare pressures that manifest, routinely collected healthc...

Background Although morbidity and mortality from COVID-19 have been widely reported, the indirect effects of the pandemic beyond 2020 on other major diseases and health service activity have not been well described. Methods Analyses used national administrative electronic hospital records in England, Scotland and Wales for 2016–2021. Admissions an...

Objectives To use national, pre- and post-pandemic electronic health records (EHR) to develop and validate a scenario-based model incorporating baseline mortality risk, infection rate (IR) and relative risk (RR) of death for prediction of excess deaths. Design An EHR-based, retrospective cohort study. Setting Linked EHR in Clinical Practice Resea...

Background: Treatment decisions about oral anticoagulants (OACs) for atrial fibrillation (AF) are complex in older care home residents. Aim: To explore factors associated with OAC prescription. Design and setting: Retrospective cohort study set in care homes in Wales, UK, listed in the Care Inspectorate Wales Registry 2017/18. Method: Analys...

Background The link between ethnicity and healthcare inequity, and the urgency for better data is well-recognised. This study describes ethnicity data in nation-wide electronic health records in England, UK. Methods We conducted a retrospective cohort study using de-identified person-level records for the England population available in the Nationa...

Introduction SARS-CoV-2 infection rarely causes hospitalisation in children and young people (CYP), but mild or asymptomatic infections are common. Persistent symptoms following infection have been reported in CYP but subsequent healthcare use is unclear. We aim to describe healthcare use in CYP following community-acquired SARS-CoV-2 infection and...

To inform the public and policy makers, we investigated and compared the risk of cerebral venous sinus thrombosis (CVST) after SARS-Cov-2 vaccination or infection using a national cohort of 2,643,699 individuals aged 17 y and above, alive, and resident in Wales on 1 January 2020 followed up through multiple linked data sources until 28 March 2021....

Background: Several SARS-CoV-2 vaccines have been shown to provide protection against COVID-19 hospitalization and death. However, some evidence suggests that notable waning in effectiveness against these outcomes occurs within months of vaccination. We undertook a pooled analysis across the four nations of the UK to investigate waning in vaccine...

Background Although morbidity and mortality from COVID-19 have been widely reported, the indirect effects of the pandemic beyond 2020 on other major diseases and health service activity have not been well described. Methods Analyses used national administrative electronic hospital records in England, Scotland and Wales for 2016-2021. Admissions an...