
Arthur Hrast EssenfelderEuropean Commission | ec · Joint Research Centre (JRC)
Arthur Hrast Essenfelder
Ph.D. in Science and Management of Climate Change
Scientific Project Officer - AI-enhanced Agro-Climate Service AIACS
About
40
Publications
24,067
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Introduction
Arthur HRAST ESSENFELDER is an environmental engineer and disaster risk reduction specialist holding a Ph.D. in Science and Management of Climate Change. His range of skills include spatial data analysis, data science, machine learning, and climate change science. Arthur has developed his techincal skills as a Scientific Officer at the European Commission's Joint Reseach Centre (JRC), and previously as the Lead Researcher on Performance Assessment of Disaster Risk Reduction Strategies at the Eur
Additional affiliations
June 2017 - August 2018
Position
- Expert on Quantitative Methods for Climate Change (PHD021)
Description
- Provide assistance to students of the course “Quantitative Methods for Climate Change”, Ph.D. (D.M.45) in Science in Management of Climate Change Minister a seminar series on “A Short Introduction to R: Building the Foundations to Real Life Applications”
Education
September 2013 - June 2017
June 2010 - December 2010
January 2005 - February 2010
Publications
Publications (40)
Seamless climate predictions integrate forecasts across various timescales to provide actionable information in sectors such as agriculture, energy, and public health. While significant progress has been made, there is still a gap in the continuous provision of operational forecasts, particularly from seasonal to multi-annual time scales. We demons...
This atlas is a visual resource aiming at conveying in an intuitive and direct way all dimensions of drought. It wants to provide policymakers and governments at multiple levels an overview of drought as a phenomenon, its impacts on various critical systems, worldwide concrete case studies of recent events, and examples of risk management and adapt...
Tourism is a highly important economic sector worldwide, yet it is often less than optimally represented in terms of detailed spatial information. An accurate spatial representation of tourism can provide valuable insights into the spatial distribution of tourism vulnerabilities and exposure, allowing policymakers to make informed decisions and dev...
This paper investigated the potential of a multivariate Transformer model to forecast the temporal trajectory of the Fraction of Absorbed Photosynthetically Active Radiation (FA-PAR) for short (1 month) and long horizon (more than 1 month) periods at the regional level in Europe and North Africa. The input data covers the period from 2002 to 2022 a...
Investigating the global connectivities of extreme events is vital for accurate risk reduction and adaptation planning. While human and natural systems have a certain resilience level against single extremes, they may be unable to cope with multiple extreme events whose impacts tend to be amplified in a non-linear relationship. Concurrent droughts...
The European Union's Biodiversity Strategy for 2030 seeks to protect 30% of land, with 10% under strict protection, while building a transnational nature network. We explore the effects of the Biodiversity Strategy targets for land use and ecosystem services across the European land system. To do so, we propose a novel approach, combining a methodo...
This study presents an event-based storyline framework to assess the influence of future climatic and socioeconomic conditions on coastal flood impacts to critical infrastructure. The framework combines well-established quantitative methods of sea level rise, coastal inundation, and critical infrastructure (CI) physical damage assessments into an i...
Pluvial flooding is a major concern in urban environments with limited or temporarily reduced efficiency of surface drainage. Climate change, land use change, and increased exposure in hazard prone areas play a role in increasing pluvial flood risks. We describe a methodology for rapid probabilistic pluvial flood hazard mapping and risk assessments...
Farmers' adaptation responses to water conservation policies involve a complex decision-making process that depends on a range of criteria, including water availability, profits, and risks, which are in turn dependent on (and might have consequences at) broader scale processes including water systems and the macroeconomy. The non-consideration of t...
The combined effect of global sea level rise and land subsidence phenomena poses a major threat to coastal settlements. Coastal flooding events are expected to grow in frequency and magnitude, increasing the potential economic losses and costs of adaptation. In Italy, a large share of the population and economic activities are located along the low...
Analysis of climate change risks in support of policymakers to set effective adaptation policies requires an innovative yet rigorous approach towards integrated modelling (IM) of social-ecological systems (SES). Despite continuous advances, IM still faces various challenges that span through both unresolved methodological issues as well as data req...
INFORM Risk Index is a global indicator-based disaster risk assessment tool that combines hazards, exposure, vulnerability and lack of coping capacity indicators with the purpose to support humanitarian crisis management decisions considering the current climate and population. In this exploratory study, we extend the Index to include future climat...
We develop a Stock-Flow Consistent model to assess the impact of COVID-19 and climate change, both individually and compounding, in the economy and finance. Then, we study the interplay between banks lending decisions and government policy effectiveness in the economic recovery in Mexico. By embedding financial actors and the credit market, and by...
The combined effect of global sea level rise and local subsidence phenomena poses a major threat to coastal settlements. Flooding events are expected to grow in frequency and magnitude, increasing the potential economic losses and costs of adaptation. In Italy, a large share of the population and economic activities are located along the coast of t...
The accurate understanding of the human-modified water cycle calls for a detailed representation of human and water systems, including relevant non-linearities, and of the feedback responses between them. This paper couples a microeconomic Positive Multi-Attribute Utility Programming model with a Hydrologic Modeling System (HEC-HMS) with the object...
This study proposes a climate service named Smart Climate Hydropower Tool (SCHT) and
designed as a hybrid forecast system for supporting decision-making in a context of hydropower production. SCHT is technically designed to make use of information from state-of-art seasonal forecasts provided by the Copernicus Climate Data Store (CDS) combined with...
L’obiettivo del rapporto è quello di evidenziare quali sono gli scenari di cambiamento climatico attesi per l’Italia e quali rischi principali tali scenari potranno determinare in corrispondenza di diversi possibili livelli di riscaldamento globale, evidenziando alcune chiare priorità di intervento, anche in riferimento alla valutazione economica d...
Farming accounts for approximately 70 percent of freshwater withdrawals worldwide, and it often constitutes the lowest value use of freshwater. Where water is scarce, advanced irrigation technologies such as drip and piped delivery systems have been promoted as “water conservation technologies” (WCTs) that reduce agricultural water consumption, thu...
Interbasin Water Transfer (IWT) is often a complex decision-making process that depends on factors ranging from hydro-meteorological conditions to socio-economic pressures. Hydrologic modelling is particularly challenging under these circumstances, requiring accurate quantitative information which may not always be available. This study proposes a...
The increase in frequency and intensity of extreme precipitation events caused by the changing climate (e.g., cloudbursts, rainstorms, heavy rainfall, hail, heavy snow), combined with the high population density and concentration of assets, makes urban areas particularly vulnerable to pluvial flooding. Hence, assessing their vulnerability under cur...
Water markets are water management instruments that can support water reallocation from low to high value agricultural uses. However, unless explicit consideration is given to water uses not directly involved in the trading (e.g. environment), water markets may fail to promote sustainable growth. In inter-basin water markets, the reallocation of wa...
Farming accounts for roughly 70% of freshwater withdrawals worldwide, while often constituting the lowest value use of freshwater. Where water is scarce, advanced irrigation technologies such as drip and sprinkler systems are widely advocated as "Water Conservation Technologies" (WCTs) to reduce agricultural water consumption, thus releasing water...
Measuring disaster resilience is a key component of successful disaster risk management and climate change adaptation. Quantitative, indicator-based assessments are typically applied to evaluate resilience by combining various indicators of performance into a single composite index. Building upon extensive research on social vulnerability and copin...
Flood risk management generally relies on economic assessments performed by using flood loss models of different complexity, ranging from simple univariable models to more complex multivariable models. The latter account for a large number of hazard, exposure and vulnerability factors, being potentially more robust when extensive input information...
Flood risk management generally relies on economic assessments performed using flood loss models of different complexity, ranging from simple univariable to more complex multivariable models. These latter accounts for a large number of hazard, exposure and vulnerability factors, being potentially more robust when extensive input information is avai...
Sin dagli anni Novanta, la Regione Emilia-Romagna procede lungo un percorso orientato alla gestione sostenibile dei corsi d'acqua: attraverso la definizione di buone pratiche, la formazione del personale, la diffusione di documenti di indirizzo e l'impulso a progetti sperimentali, siamo giunti in questo ultimo mandato all'applicazione della Diretti...
Water resources management is a nontrivial process requiring a holistic understanding of the factors driving the dynamics of human-water systems. Policy-induced or autonomous behavioral changes in human systems may affect water and land management, which may affect water systems and feedback to human systems, further impacting water and land manage...
SWAT Weather Database is designed to be a friendly tool to store and process daily weather data to
be used with SWAT projects. It is capable of:
- Storing relevant daily weather information;
- Easily creating .txt files to be used as input information during an ArcSWAT project setup;
- Efficiently calculating the WGEN statistics of several weather...
Identifier: http://hdl.handle.net/10579/11975
We are currently living in the era of the Anthropocene. Human actions no longer have consequences constrained to local or regional levels, but instead can affect the whole planet. Biogeochemical cycles are impacted by human activities, biogeophysical processes are linked with socio-economic processes,...
Some watersheds are heavily influenced by human factors that affect their overall water balance and dynamics. This is the case of the Dese-Zero watershed, part of the Venice Lagoon watershed – VLW, located in NorthEast Italy. Such watershed is characterised by a highly modified environment, with the presence of several hydraulic works and devices,...
SWAT Weather Database is a friendly tool designed to store and process daily weather data to be used with SWAT projects. It is capable of: • Storing relevant daily weather information; • Easily creating .txt files to be used as input information during an ArcSWAT project setup; • Efficiently calculating the WGEN statistics of several weather statio...
An accurate prediction of the flow of rivers is of great value in several areas, among which stand out hydrology, civil construction and the environment. The search for prior knowledge of the characteristics of the flow of a river has been studied since the Ancient Age of human society. In the recent decades, there were several mathematical models...