Armando González-Cabán

US Forest Service | FS · Program for Urban Ecosystems and Social Dynamics Program

This study estimated homeowner's willingness to pay for public and private fuel reduction programs in wildland urban interface areas using a choice experiment implemented in California. A multinomial logit (MNL) model was estimated and indicated that homeowners living in subjectively perceived high-risk areas would pay for new wildfire risk mitigat...

The potentially large ecological, economic, and societal impacts of climate change makes it a significant problem of the 21st century. These consequences have led to tremendous development in climate change scenarios and new technologies to increase knowledge on the effect and efficiency of mitigation and adaptation measures. Large fires will occur...

Background: Understanding the temporal patterns of fire occurrence and their relationships with fuel dryness is key to sound fire management, especially under increasing global warming. At present, no system for prediction of fire occurrence risk based on fuel dryness conditions is available in Mexico. As part of an ongoing national-scale project,...

This article tests two hypotheses on whether forest fuel reduction treatments (prescribed burning and mechanical methods) reduce wildfire suppression costs and property damages. Data were collected on fuel treatments, fire suppression costs, and property damage associated with wildfires in United States National Forests over a five-year period thro...

The spatial fire occurrence maps estimates could be integrated into operational GIS tools for assistance in fire danger mapping and fire and fuel management decision making.Some studies have proposed that the occurrence of forest fires increases with increasing levels of forest productivity, biomass, basal area or other biometric characteristics(Bo...

Development of many rural forestry areas depends strongly on tourism activities; therefore, it is critical to incorporate these activities in the decision-making process for the management and conservation efforts. Different from other market resources provided by forests, recreation activities provide benefits not only to forest owners but to all...

Understanding the spatial patterns of fire occurrence is key for improved forest fires management, particularly under global change scenarios. Very few studies have attempted to relate satellite-based aboveground biomass maps of moderate spatial resolution to spatial fire occurrence under a variety of climatic and vegetation conditions. This study...

This presentation introduces the project "Development of a Forest Fire Danger System for Mexico" funded by the Mexican Forest Agency CONAFOR. The goal of the 3-year project is to develop an operational fire danger system for mapping daily and forecasted fire risk occurrence and fire propagation danger in Mexico, which will be online for decision-ma...

This paper reports the results of two hypotheses tests regarding whether fuel reduction treatments using prescribed burning and mechanical methods reduces wildfire suppression costs and property damages. To test these two hypotheses data was collected on fuel treatments, fire suppression costs and property damages associated with wildfires on Unite...

This research provides wildfire specialists with tools for estimating the cost of conducting various types of wildfire fuel treatments. The dependent variable in the cost regression is what the USDA Forest Service calls Planned Direct cost per acre. Independent variables included the setting in which the fuel treatment took place (e.g., the wildlan...

This paper reports the results of two hypotheses tests regarding whether fuel reduction treatments using prescribed burning and mechanical methods reduces wildfire suppression costs and property damages. To test these two hypotheses data was collected on fuel treatments, fire suppression costs and property damages associated with wildfires on Unite...

The purpose of this work is to estimate willingness-to-pay (WTP) for minority (African-American and Hispanic) homeowners in Florida for private and public wildfire risk reduction programs. Also to test for differences in response between the two groups. A random parameter logit and latent class models allowed us to determine if there is difference...

Using the same choice experiment surveys and same specification of mixed logit models are used in California (CA) and Florida (FL) to compare homeowners willingness to pay (WTP) for two types of fuel reduction programs. Comparing the WTP of homeowners in CA and FL for private and public wildfire risk reduction show that WTP for the private actions...

En México, diversas instituciones gubernamentales, académicas y asociaciones civiles, han impulsado el manejo del fuego como una estrategia para minimizar los impactos negativos de los incendios forestales y maximizar sus efectos positivos. Entre sus propósitos están mantener la ocurrencia de estos eventos en el intervalo de variación de los regíme...

Understanding the linkage between accumulated fuel dryness and temporal fire occurrence risk is key for improving decision-making in forest fire management, especially under growing conditions of vegetation stress associated with climate change. This study addresses the development of models to predict the number of 10-day observed Moderate-Resolut...

The purpose of this work is to estimate willingness to pay (WTP) for minority (African-American and Hispanic) homeowners in Florida for private and public wildfire risk-reduction programs and also to test for differences in response between the two groups. A random parameter logit and latent class model allowed us to determine if there is a differe...

We propose an economic analysis using utility and productivity, and efficiency theories to provide fire managers a decision support tool to determine the most efficient fire management programs levels. By incorporating managers’ accumulated fire suppression experiences (capitalized experience) in the analysis we help fire managers determine fire su...

Traditional uses of the forest (timber, forage) have been giving way to other uses more in demand (recreation, ecosystem services). An observable consequence of this process of forest land use conversion is an increase in more difficult and extreme wildfires. Wildland forest management and protection program budgets are limited, and managers are re...

Abstract Algerian forest lands cover 4,115,908 hectares (ha), of which 2,413,090 (58%) ha are bush or maquis. Recent work has shown that forest fires are the main factor explaining (90%) degradation of Algeria forest lands at an annual rate of 45,000 to 50,000 ha. From 1985 to 2010 in 40 provinces of northern Algeria, 42,555 forest fires have burne...

The economic relevance of wildland fire management and protection programs is ever growing, particularly considering mounting wildfire costs and losses globally, and the justifications required for budget allocations to management and protection of forest ecosystems. However, there are major difficulties in grappling with the problem of rapidly inc...

Large fires pose risks to a number of important values, including the ecology, property and the lives of incident responders. A relatively unstudied aspect of fire management is the risks to which incident managers are exposed due to organizational and sociopolitical factors that put them in a position of, for example, potential liability or degrad...

The abandonment of land, the high energy load generated and accumulated by vegetation covers, climate change and interface scenarios in Mediterranean forest ecosystems are demanding serious attention to forest fire conditions. This is particularly true when dealing with the budget requirements for undertaking protection programs related to the stat...

In this paper, we investigate homeowner preferences and willingness to pay for wildfire protection programs using a choice experiment with three attributes: risk, loss and cost. Preference heterogeneity among survey respondents was examined using three econometric models and risk preferences were evaluated by comparing willingness to pay for wildfi...

Resumen Las tierras forestales argelinas cubren 4,115,908 hectáreas (ha), de las cuales 2,413,090 ha (58%) son arbustos o maquis. Trabajos recientes han demostrado que los incendios forestales son el principal factor que explica (90%) la degradación de las tierras forestales de Argelia a una tasa anual de 45,000 a 50,000 ha. De 1985 a 2010 en 40 pr...

These proceedings summarize the results of a symposium designed to address current issues of agencies with wildland fire protection responsibility at the federal and state levels in the United States as well as agencies in the international community. The topics discussed at the symposium included climate change and wildland fires: reality or illus...

Los grandes incendios suponen riesgos para una serie de importantes valores, incluyendo la ecología, la propiedad y la vida de quienes responden a los incidentes. Un aspecto relativamente poco estudiado del manejo del fuego son los riesgos a los que están expuestos los gerentes de incidentes debido a factores organizacionales y sociopolíticos que l...

Recent advances in fire behavior are conforming strategies for forest management in non-industrial private and public forests in the western United States. The strategy developed should include identifying the most cost-effective ways for allocating fire management budgets. In recreational areas, visitors' opinion should be included in forest plann...

The spreadsheet program, OWLECON, was developed to allow managers to quickly calculate the economic value of reducing fire risk to California and northern spotted owl habitat in California and Oregon. The program draws from surveys performed of California and Oregon residents. The user simply types in the current average annual acres burned and the...

We developed a methodology to evaluate the efficacy of fuel treatments by estimating their costs and potential costs/losses with and without treatments in the San Jacinto Ranger District of the San Bernardino National Forest, California. This district is a typical southern California forest complex containing a large amount of high-valued real esta...

Most forestry property in Andalusia is privately held. One of the most important possibilities for economic development of rural areas is the use of pasture lands (dehesa in Spanish). During the spring-summer season, swine grazing takes advantage of grasses between the trees, and during winter (harsher times), they use Quercus tree fruit. Swine pro...

A methodology for incident decomposition and reconstruction is developed based on the concept of an "event-frame model." The event-frame model characterizes a fire incident in terms of (a) environmental events that pertain to the fire and the fire context (e.g., fire behavior, weather, fuels) and (b) management events that represent responses to th...

Human habitation has made significant intrusions into forested lands, particularly in the western United States, but in other parts of the world as well. At the interface of the natural and built environments, known as the wildland-urban interface (WUI), communities and property owners are exposed to the potential ravages of wildland fire. Efforts...

The need for monetary benefits of protecting spotted owl old-growth forest habitat from fire in the early 1990s was the catalyst for application of nonmarket valuation techniques to fire management within the US Forest Service. Two large-scale general public surveys successfully established that the contingent valuation method (CVM) could be used t...

Historically, in Spain and most European countries, forest fire budgets have never been subjected to an objective and rigorous economic analysis indicative of the returns on investments in fire management protection programs. Thus far we have witnessed expansive growth of costs without any investment planning. New economic realities and more focuss...

Non-market valuation methods and geographic information systems are useful planning and management tools for public land managers. Recent attention has been given to investigation and demonstration of methods for combining these tools to provide spatially-explicit representations of non-market value. Most of these efforts have focused on spatial al...

This research uses the Contingent Valuation Method to test whether willingness to pay increases for larger reductions in acres of forests burned by wildfires across the states of California, Florida and Montana. This is known as a test of scope, a measure of internal validity of the contingent valuation method (CVM). The scope test is conducted sep...

Unlike most hedonic studies that analyze the effects of a one-time event, this paper analyzes the effects of forest fires that are several years apart in a small geographical area. We find that repeated forest fires cause house prices to decrease for houses located near the fires. We test and reject the hypothesis that the house price reduction fro...

In this paper, we explore empirically whether the USDA Forest Service's litigation success rate in each Forest Service region helps explain the persistent regional effects noted by Laband et al. (Laband, D.N., González-Cabán, A., and Hussain, A. (2006). "Factors That Influence Administrative Appeals of Proposed USDA Forest Service Fuels Reduction A...

Visitor use surveys and water quality data indicates that high visitor use levels of two rivers in Puerto Rico does not appear to adversely affect several water quality parameters. Optimum visitor use to maximize visitor defined satisfaction is a more constraining limit on visitor use than water quality. Our multiple regression analysis suggests th...

We update the joint estimation of revealed and stated preference data of previously published research to allow for joint estimation of the Travel Cost Method (TCM) portion using count data models. The TCM estimation also corrects for truncation and endogenous stratification as well as overdispersion. The joint estimation allows for testing consist...

Increasing numbers of wildfires each summer has brought forward legislative and administrative proposals for expanding prescribed burning and mechanical fuel reduction programs. A policy of accelerating the amount of land to be mechanically thinned or prescribed burned is not without opposition. Prescribed burning can generate significant quantitie...

A contingent valuation method (CVM) study was used to compare survey response rates, protest refusals to pay, and median willingness-to-pay (WTP) of Native American communities in Montana compared to Montana's general population for two wildland fire mitigation strategies. Understanding differences in response rates, protest refusals to pay, and me...

The purpose of this paper is to address a problem that may arise with the assumption of a continuous spatial market in the TCM model. We find that this assumption can be challenged by geographical limitations that an area of study might have. Particularly for islands (or isolated island-like areas) that have a valuable non-market resource or good,...

Using the database developed by the General Accounting Office on proposed fuels reduction actions on federal lands in 2001 and 2002, we conduct probit regression analysis to identify factors that significantly affect the likelihood of administrative appeal. The likelihood of appeal of a proposed fuels reduction action is significantly increased by...

In order to satisfy legal requirements, many federal agencies must assess the potential effects of their policies on the public. This is often done through surveys, but frequently those surveys are only administered in English. This paper tests whether there are differences in survey response rates, refusals to pay, and willingness to pay (WTP) acr...

We tested the convergent validity of responses obtained via videotape survey administration and obtained by a phone interview using a survey booklet. The announcer on the videotape verbally presented the text and questions that were read to respondents in the phone interview. There was no statistical difference between video and phone–booklet surve...

This research updates the joint estimation of revealed and stated preference data of Cameron (1992) to allow for joint estimation of the Travel Cost Method (TCM) portion using count data models. Further these count data models reflect correction for truncation and endogenous stratification associated with commonly used on-site recreation sampling....

Indigenous and traditional peoples worldwide have used fire to manipulate their environment for thousands of years. These long-standing practices still continue and have considerable relevance for today's land managers. This discussion explores the value of documenting and understanding historic and contemporary fire use attitudes and practices of...

We conducted surveys on 33 trails within National Forests in Colorado and Montana to test whether forest fires affected recreation demand. Data were collected on actual and intended number of visits. A count data travel cost demand model was estimated by pooling actual and intended visitation responses in both states. Results indicate that Montana...

This article evaluates the ability of contingent valuation to measure the benefits received by several ethnic groups from a prescribed burning forest fire reduction program similar to President Bush's Healthy Forest Initiative. Reasons for refusing to pay higher taxes for the prescribed burning program were not statistically different between Afric...

National Forests in southern California contain fire prone ecosystems and significant watersheds that are susceptible to post-fire erosion. Using the 2,348 ha Kinneloa fire near Pasadena, CA and associated debris basins as a case study, we found that a long time-interval wildfire resulted in $2.5 million of sediment management and watershed rehabil...

Although the vast majority of wildland fires are suppressed effectively in initial or extended attack, on relatively rare occasions fires become exceptionally large, resulting in unusual resource damages, significant financial impacts and/or loss of life. Understanding how to better manage large fires and to improve methods for controlling their co...

Wildfire and prescribed fire have the potential to affect user demand and value for recreation, making such information important to the decision-making process for fire managers. However, such information is not always readily available. We conducted surveys on 22 sites within four national forests in western Montana to determine fire effects on r...

We use a travel cost model to test the effects of wild and prescribed fire on visitation by hikers and mountain bikers in New Mexico. Our results indicate that net benefits for mountain bikers is $150 per trip and that they take an average of 6.2 trips per year. Hikers take 2.8 trips per year with individual net benefits per trip of $130. Both hike...

A multiple regression analysis of fire interval and resulting sediment yield (controlling for relief ratio, rainfall, etc.) indicates that reducing the fire interval from the current average 22 years to a prescribed fire interval of 5 years would reduce sediment yield by 2 million cubic meters in the 86.2 square kilometer southern California waters...