Aristofanis Tsiringakis

• PhD
• Scientist at European Center For Medium Range Weather Forecasts

Urban Land Surface Models (ULSMs) simulate energy and water exchanges between the urban surface and atmosphere. However, earlier systematic ULSM comparison projects assessed the energy balance but ignored the water balance, which is coupled to the energy balance. Here, we analyze the water balance representation in 19 ULSMs participating in the Urb...

High-resolution, limited-area forecasting is strongly affected by errors in the initial atmospheric state, lateral boundary conditions (LBCs), and physical parameterizations used by numerical weather prediction (NWP) models. These errors need to be accounted for through the introduction of uncertainty in an ensemble prediction system (EPS). One app...

Urban Land Surface Models (ULSMs) simulate energy and water exchanges between the urban surface and atmosphere. When part of numerical weather prediction, ULSMs provide a lower boundary for the atmosphere and improve the applicability of model results in the urban environment compared with non-urban land surface models. However, earlier systematic...

Accurately predicting weather and climate in cities is critical for safeguarding human health and strengthening urban resilience. Multimodel evaluations can lead to model improvements; however, there have been no major intercomparisons of urban‐focussed land surface models in over a decade. Here, in Phase 1 of the Urban‐PLUMBER project, we evaluate...

Within the period 2014–2017, five hail events were reported in the city of Surabaya in Indonesia. Although deep convection commonly develops over the Maritime Continent, severe thunderstorms triggering hail events develop less frequently as specific atmospheric conditions are required. The rapid urbanization in Surabaya might have led to increased...

Working group 1 considered the treatment of model uncertainty (MU) in high-resolution ensembles, at grid spacings of order 1-5 km. These systems are often run for regional weather forecasting, perhaps over a single country, and for lead times of up to 5 days. Looking ahead, ECMWF's strategy seeks to deliver global medium-range ensemble forecasts wi...

Understanding the physical processes that affect the turbulent structure of the nocturnal urban boundary layer (UBL) is essential to improve forecasts of air quality and the air temperature in urban areas. Low-level jets (LLJs) have been shown to affect turbulence in the nocturnal UBL. We investigate the interaction of a mesoscale LLJ with the UBL...

Urban canopy models (UCMs) are parametrization schemes that are used to improve weather forecasts in urban areas. The performance of UCMs depends on understanding potential uncertainty sources that can generally originate from the (a) urban surface parameters, (b) atmospheric forcing, and (c) physical description. Here, we investigate the relative...

Urban canopy models are essential tools for forecasting weather and air quality in cities. However, they require many surface parameters, which are uncertain and can reduce model performance if inappropriately prescribed. Here, we evaluate the model sensitivity of the single‐layer urban canopy model (SLUCM) in the Weather Research and Forecasting (...

Urban areas are expanding globally and, in combination with an increase in heat waves due to a warming climate, they experience pressure concerning i.e. environmental quality, human health and energy consumption. Numerical weather prediction (NWP) models now reach a spatial grid resolution at which cities and even contrasting neighbourhoods are bec...

At present atmospheric models for weather and climate use enhanced turbulent drag under stable conditions, because these empirically provide the necessary momentum drag for accurate forecast of synoptic systems. The enhanced mixing (also known as the ”long-tail”), introduces drag that can not be physically justified and deteriorates the score for n...

Extreme precipitation events over Jakarta have become more frequent and intense in recent years. A clear example was the record-high precipitation event of 8-10 February 2015, in which 6 people died and 20000 were displaced. Large-scale phenomena, like climate change and El Nino, could have influenced this increase in extreme precipitation over Jak...