Ariane Frassoni

• PhD
• Researcher at National Institute for Space Research

To manage Earth in the Anthropocene, new tools, new institutions, and new forms of international cooperation will be required. Earth Virtualization Engines is proposed as an international federation of centers of excellence to empower all people to respond to the immense and urgent challenges posed by climate change.

To manage Earth in the Anthropocene, new tools, new institutions, and new forms of international cooperation will be required. Earth Virtualization Engines are proposed as international federation of centers of excellence to empower all people to respond to the immense and urgent challenges posed by climate change.

6th WGNE workshop on systematic errors in weather and climate models What: Scientists, ranging from early career to highly experienced, involved in the development of weather and climate models and in the diagnosis of model errors, held an international workshop to discuss the nature, causes and remedies of systematic errors across timescales and a...

The rise in the Earth's global average surface temperature and the increase of extreme weather events have been the focus of scientific discussion in the last decades. Extreme heat combined with other environmental extremes, like high concentrations of air pollution, may induce health problems—especially in socioeconomically vulnerable populations....

O capítulo 1, ‘Atmosfera’, trata da caracterização e composição da atmosfera, bem como dos impactos e pressões a ela exercidas por diversos fatores e setores. O capítulo descreve, a partir de três tópicos (Poluentes Atmosféricos, Camada de Ozônio e Mudanças Climáticas), as problemáticas encontradas que se refletem tanto na saúde humana, por doenças...

The WMO Global Sand and Dust Storm Warning Advisory and Assessment System (SDS-WAS) is intended to provide continuous and improved SDS operational forecasts as well as to facilitate international coordinated SDS research in the earth-system science domain, fostering the seamless forecast of SDSs, air quality and chemical weather. It is also expecte...

The scope of this work was to evaluate simulated carbon monoxide (CO) and aerosol optical depth (AOD) from the CAM-chem model against observed satellite data and additionally explore the empirical relationship of CO, AOD and fire radiative power (FRP). The simulated seasonal global concentrations of CO and AOD were compared, respectively, with the...

O fogo na vegetação, incluindo a aplicação do fogo no uso da terra e na mudança de uso da terra, assim como os incêndios florestais, afetam o funcionamento do sistema terrestre e impõem ameaças significativas à saúde e segurança públicas. Este documento apresenta o conceito de um Sistema de Avaliação e Alerta de Poluição causada por Fumaça decorren...

A poluição do ar tornou-se um dos fatores que mais afetam a qualidade de vida da população, ocasionando prejuízos à saúde humana e ao meio ambiente. Emissões de gases por veículos automotores comprometem significativamente a qualidade do ar na Região Metropolitana de São Paulo (RMSP) por liberarem grande quantidade de monóxido de carbono (CO), mate...

A poluição do ar tornou-se um dos fatores que mais afetam a qualidade de vida da população, ocasionando prejuízos à saúde humana e ao meio ambiente. Emissões de gases por veículos automotores comprometem significativamente a qualidade do ar na Região Metropolitana de São Paulo (RMSP) por liberarem grande quantidade de monóxido de carbono (CO), mate...

Numerical models of the climate system have typically been restricted to grid resolutions from a few hundred down to a few tens of kilometers due to computational constraints, and a representation of sub-grid physical processes by parameterization is required. The continuing advances of science and technology are allowing larger computations and th...

During the last decade, an ever growing number of numerical sensibility studies suggested that atmospheric variability is strongly influenced by the landatmosphere coupling, in particular due to soil moisture anomalies. Indeed, soil moisture impacts the atmosphere by controlling the evaporation component in the surface water and energy balance equa...

The 2nd World Climate Research Programme (WCRP) Summer School on Climate Model Development was held in Cachoeira Paulista, São Paulo, Brazil, from January 22nd to January 31st, hosted by the National Institute for Space Research, Center for Weather Forecasting and Climate Studies (INPE/CPTEC) to bring together expert scientists to share knowledge w...

We present a summary report of the CLIVAR Early Career Scientists Symposium, a three-day event associated with the CLIVAR Open Science Conference held in Qingdao, China during September 2016. The Symposium aimed to capture the ideas of early career researchers on pressing science priorities, imminent challenges, and emerging opportunities to help g...

The fifth Workshop on Systematic Errors (WSE) in weather and climate models was hosted by Environment and Climate Change Canada (ECCC) on under the auspices of the Working Group on Numerical Experimentation (WGNE), jointly sponsored by the Commission of Atmospheric Sciences of the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) and the World Climate Resear...

During the last years, a growing number of numerical experiments suggested that the atmospheric variability is strongly influenced by the land-atmosphere coupling strength, in particular due to soil moisture anomalies. Previous works have shown different regions in the globe sensitive to such anomalies, in some cases with a strong coupling whereas...

BRAMS model carbon monoxide (CO) operational forecasting for 24h, 48h and 72h forecast lengths were evaluated using measurements from Osasco and Congonhas monitoring stations of the State Environmental Company (CETESB). The studied period ranges from May 2012 to December 2015. Annual averages, diurnal and monthly annual mean cycles were analysed, a...

Rio de Janeiro was the hosting city of the Olympic Games in 2016. Monitoring and forecasting the air quality in the Metropolitan Area of Rio de Janeiro (MARJ) became a priority in order to support government agencies and population during this period. For that, the air quality forecast system for MARJ (AQFS-MARJ) in high resolution (1km of grid spa...

We present a summary report of the CLIVAR Early Career Scientists Symposium, a three-day event associated with the CLIVAR Open Science Conference held in Qingdao, China during September 2016. The Symposium aimed to capture the ideas of early career researchers on pressing science priorities, imminent challenges, and emerging opportunities to help g...

The accurate representation of the impacts of natural and anthropogenic aerosols in the climate system presents a challenge in General Circulation Models. This paper analyzes the performance of the aerosol component of two Atmospheric General Circulation Models (AGCM): the Europe Centre Hamburg Model - Hamburg Aerosol Model (ECHAM-HAM), and the Com...

We present a new version of the Brazilian developments on the Regional Atmospheric Modeling System (BRAMS), in which different previous versions for weather, chemistry, and carbon cycle were unified in a single integrated modeling system software. This new version also has a new set of state-of-the-art physical parameterizations and greater computa...

The exigencies of the global community toward Earth system science will increase in the future as the human population, economies, and the human footprint on the planet continue to grow. This growth, combined with intensifying urbanization, will inevitably exert increasing pressure on all ecosystem services. A unified interdisciplinary approach to...

We present a new version of the Brazilian developments on the Regional Atmospheric Modeling System where different previous versions for weather, chemistry and carbon cycle were unified in a single integrated software system. The new version also has a new set of state-of-the-art physical parameterizations and greater computational parallel and mem...

The precipitation is predicted by using a weighted combination of different convective parameterization schemes. The best prediction estimation is obtained by calculating the appropriated weights for the ensemble of parameterizations. The weight identification process is a type of inverse problem: parameter estimation. The inverse solution is compu...

Apresentação realizada na reunião da Câmara Técnica de Monitoramento Hidrológico (CTMH) dos Comitês das bacias dos rios Piracicaba, Capivari e Jundiaí - PCJ, com foco nos eventos de seca sobre o Estado de São Paulo.

The precipitation prediction is addressed by weighted average. The weight identification is a parameter estimation inverse problem formulated by the square difference between measurements and computed precipitations. The metaheuristic Firefly Algorithm with Predation (FAP) is used to compute the best weights. The method is applied to the BRAMS code...

In this paper we consider an optimization problem applying the metaheuristic Firefly algorithm (FY) to weight an ensemble of rainfall forecasts from daily precipitation simulations with the Brazilian developments on the Regional Atmospheric Modeling System (BRAMS) over South Amer- ica during January 2006. The method is addressed as a pa- rameter es...

A model simulation of an intense rainfall associated with a case of South Atlantic Convergence Zone that occurred during 21­24 February 2004 using the Brazilian developments on the Regional Atmospheric Modelling System was performed. ´ ´ The convective parameterization scheme of Grell and Devenyi was used to represent clouds of the sub-grid scale a...

One of the more extreme weather events are episodes of drought. This is a natural phenomenon characterized by a significant reduction of the availability of water for a period of time over a large area. Periods of drought can have significant consequences in socio-economic, environmental, agricultural and health. The effects of a sustained period o...

As secas são eventos climáticos severos considerados raros e aleatórios, abrangendo extensas áreas, e em alguns casos, apresentam longa duração. Estes eventos geram prejuízos socioeconômicos nas regiões onde ocorrem. Diversos países contabilizam bilhões de dólares com perdas, que vão desde a produção agrícola até doenças causadas pela contaminação...

The Amazon has a well-defined wet austral summer monsoon and dry winter monsoon precipitation regime and experienced a sequence of drought events in the last 13 years. This study performs a comparative assessment of observed and predicted climate conditions during the three most recent drought events in the Amazon, in 1997–1998, 2004–2005 and 2009–...

In this paper we consider the parameter estimation problem of weighting the ensemble of convective parameterizations implemented in the Brazilian developments on the Regional Atmospheric Modeling System (BRAMS). The inverse problem is applied to BRAMS precipitation simulations over South America for December 2004. The forward problem is addressed b...

In this study, the methodology of inverse problem of parameter estimation is applied using the regional model BRAMS. The inverse problem is solved by the Firefly (FA) optimization method and the direct model is given by the simulations of precipitation expressed by different cumulus parameterizations of the model. The goal is to determine numeri...

This study aims to investigate the large scale atmospheric patterns associated with four drought episodes in Rio Grande do Sul state, Brazil, during the last decade (2003-2012). We have analised gridded observed precipitation anomaly data and atmospheric circulation and humidity anomalies from reanalysis. Results indicate that the main large scale...

This study aims to evaluate the ability of CPTEC seasonal climate prediction model in reproducing monthly precipitation during the onset months of central Brazil rainy season. Initially the skill of retrospective predictions was evaluated using correlation between CPTEC/AGCM predictions and the observed precipitation from Global Precipitation Clim...

Regional model forecasts can contain significant systematic errors for forecasts of precipitation. Because these biases are so systematic, mathematical and statistical methods can be successfully used to correct for them. In this paper we consider an optimization problem applying the metaheuristic Firefly algorithm (FA) to remove system- atic biase...

An unsolved problem in meteorology is to represent clouds and their collective effects in regional or large scale atmospheric numerical models, since the physical processes of the clouds and their interaction with the environment are not well understood yet. In the atmospheric models with grid box around 10 Km or greater the effects of clouds on th...

The feedbacks between soil moisture and precipitation are manifestations of the coupling between the surface and the atmosphere. This coupling, by which variations in land surface properties induce variations in the atmosphere occurs in a wide range of scales. In the time scale of hours, surface temperature variations can cause variations in evapor...

A previsão numérica de precipitação é um importante produto para a agricultura, uma vez que o regime pluviométrico gera impactos significativos na produção agrícola de cada região, e previsões com alto índice de acerto podem contribuir com o planejamento das safras, minimizando possíveis prejuízos. Embora existam muitas fontes de incertezas no proc...

O presente trabalho apresenta a análise sinótica que propiciou a formação de um Sistema Convectivo de Mesoescala ocorrido entre os dias 29 e 30/11/2009 no sul da América do Sul. Foram utilizadas análises dos modelos regionais Eta e RPSAS e comparadas com as reanálises do ERA Interim (ERA). Os resultados indicaram que a análise que mais se aproximou...

The model simulation of a case of South Atlantic Convergence Zone (SACZ) occurred on 21- 24 March 2004 using the Brazilian developments on the Regional Atmospheric Modeling System (BRAMS) was performed. The convective parameterization scheme of Grell and Dévényi was used to represent clouds and their interaction with the large scale environment. Th...

The model simulation of a classical case of South Atlantic Convergence Zone (SACZ) occurred on 21 March 2004 using the Coupled Chemistry-Aerosol-Tracer Transport-Brazilian developments on the Regional Atmospheric Modeling System (CCATT-BRAMS) was performed. The convective parameterization scheme of Grell and Dévényi is used to represent clouds and...

The South American (SA) rainy season is studied in this paper through the application of a multivariate Empirical Orthogonal Function (EOF) analysis to a SA gridded precipitation analysis and to the components of Lorenz Energy Cycle (LEC) derived from the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) reanalysis. The EOF analysis leads to the...

The intracloud to cloud-to-ground lightning flash ratio (Z) has been estimated for the first time in Southeastern Brazil and in the tropical region using the Lightning Imaging Sensor (LIS) and Brazilian lightning detection network (BrasilDat) lightning data obtained from 1999 to 2005. Geographical variations of Z and their relation to elevation, la...

In March 2004 occurred the first hurricane registered at South Atlantic Ocean. The system named Catarina begun as an extratropical cyclone and remained quasi-stationary some days over the South Atlantic Ocean. The system displaced westward, acquiring characteristics of a hurricane and hit the Brazilian State of Santa Catarina (SC) between the 27 an...

The aim of the present work was to evaluate the 2-meter temperature, 2-meter specific humidity and 10-meter wind (T2m and q2m, respectively) of the Atmosphere Global Circulation Model from the Center for Weather Prediction and Climate Studies (AGCM/CPTEC) over the South America (SA), during 1 st July to 31 July 2006. Comparisons between T2m, q2m...

The objective of this study is to evaluate the 2 meter-temperature forecasts (T2m) and temperature in the first sigma-level (Tems) from the Center for Weather Prediction and Climate Studies, Atmospheric Global Circulation Model (CPTEC/AGCM) during 20th January to 8th February 2003. The CPTEC regional Eta model reanalysis were used for comparisons....

Forecasts of 2-meter temperature (T2m) and temperature in the first sigma level of the Atmosphere Global Circulation Model from the Center for Weather Prediction and Climate Studies (CPTEC) was evaluated against observed surface temperature at Cachoeira Paulista, SP during 1-31/06/07. The statistical index Skill Score and Mean Absolute Error was us...

Using the Data Assimilation System PSAS with AGCM/CPTEC/COLA, the Pseudo-Temps have been included to prepare the initial conditions to run the model forecast. By using the Pseudo-Temps we expect a better representation of the atmospheric circulation over South America. This region presents data-sparse areas, mainly over Bolivia, Paraguay and Peru....

The present study describes the influence of the Low-level Jet (LLJ) located to the east of the Andes mountain and the associated precipitation over Southern Brazil. The objective of this study is to characterize the sinoptic situation for this type of eevent. LLJ case was identified by Bonner criterion 1. The data used are NCEP/NCAR reanalysis, su...

Neste estudo, nós descrevemos um evento de Jato em Baixos Níveis (JBN) na região central de América do Sul, situado a leste da cordilheira dos Andes, que ocorreu entre os dias 21 a 24 de janeiro de 2003. Foram utilizadas as análises do modelo regional Eta do CPTEC/INPE e do NCEP/NCAR para identificar casos de LLJ e o modelo de mesoescala MM5 para s...

During the period from 31 August to 3 September 2001, the precipitation in Pelotas city was 147.4 mm, when the mean value for September is 137.2 mm. The objective of this paper is to analyse the synoptic situation which originated the rainfall. It is verified the presence of a Mesoscale Convective Complex over Rio Grande do Sul state during 31 Augu...

The intensity and the trajectory of the transmissions of microwaves for radars and communication systems can be substantially altered due to the variation of the index of refraction of the air, being able to not a lot of times to result in an anomalous propagation. To do a forecast of the propagation of microwaves in the atmosphere, we needed to ha...

The northeast and southeast trade winds converge at the equator over the oceans to develop convective zones ITCZ and SPCZ. The thermal lows develop over the continents during summer season generate westerlies over the continents, generally known as monsoons. The trade winds and monsoons generally blow from the high pressure zones towards the convec...

Air temperature is relevant in the climatic analysis and forecasting. In the present work we relate our preliminary experience using neural network to forecast air temperature behavior. In particular we show a neural network able to forecast air temperature with relative success using the SNNS simulator (Stuttgart Neural Network Simulator).

In this paper is presented annual variation of the clearness index and solar global radiation in a polyetylene greenhouse in the north-south and east-west orientations. The solar global radiation was measured during 13 months inside and outside of the greenhouse: from 12/7/95 to 12/20/96. The piranometer used for the measure inside was prototype an...

Os sistemas transientes são baroclínicos, principalmente a partir do dia D-0,quando ocorre forte inclinação para oeste na vertical sobre o sul da AS. O aumento da baroclinia pode gerar desenvolvimento ciclogenético à leste dos Andes (Gan e Rao, 1994; Jusevicius, 1999). A intensificação do ciclone ao passar a barreira topográfica sugere que a ciclog...