Anuj Mubayi

Anuj Mubayi
The Public Health Company · Infectious Disease Modeling

MS, PhD from Arizona State University; Scientist-The Public Health Company

About

109
Publications
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1,222
Citations

Publications

Publications (109)
Article
Full-text available
As COVID-19 continue to spread around the globe, it is critical to understand true burden of a future outbreak in developing countries like Colombia, where data may be limited. Here, we estimated the rate of the initial exponential growth of cases and the basic reproductive rate for the disease. We used models with different modeling assumptions to...
Preprint
Schistosomiasis is one of the major neglected tropical diseases (NTDs) with more than 240 million people currently infected, primarily ( 90%) in sub-Saharan Africa. It is treated and primarily controlled through mass drug administration (MDA) in endemic regions. Determining the extent to which an intervention to control Schistosomiasis has been suc...
Article
Background Despite commercial airlines mandating masks, there have been multiple documented events of COVID-19 superspreading on flights. Conventional models do not adequately explain superspreading patterns on flights, with infection spread wider than expected from proximity based on passenger seating. An important reason for this is that models t...
Research
The course of COVID-19 in infected patients seems to encompass a wide spectrum of clinical manifestations, ranging from mild to severe disease symptoms. Soon after a susceptible individual uptakes an infectious dose, the infection travels through cells in the nasal cavity and respiratory tract and eventually establishes itself in different parts of...
Article
Immune responses have a crucial role to play against SARS-CoV-2 virus as the adaptive and innate immune systems of the human body help restoring the body to a healthy stage by annihilating this deadly viral infection. Cytokines also play a significant role in modulating a balance between innate and adaptive immune responses but excess of it can hav...
Article
The COVID-19 pandemic has placed epidemiologists, modelers, and policy makers at the forefront of the global discussion of how to control the spread of coronavirus. The main challenges confronting modelling approaches include real-time projections of changes in the numbers of cases, hospitalizations, and fatalities, the consequences of public healt...
Article
Full-text available
Infectious diseases, including emerging diseases and zoonotic diseases, caused by bacteria, viruses, fungi or parasites, have been important research themes in public health because of fast changing environment and population structure. The great interests in our new era include components concerning climate/environment change and sustainability of...
Article
College-aged students are one of the most vulnerable populations to high-risk alcohol drinking behaviors that could cause them consequences such as injury or sexual assault. An important factor that may influence college students’ decision on alcohol drinking behavior is socializing in certain contexts across the university environment. In the pres...
Chapter
Infectious diseases, including emerging diseases and zoonotic diseases, caused by bacteria, viruses, fungi or parasites, have been important research themes in public health because of fast changing environment and population structure. The great interests in our new era include components concerning climate/environment change and sustainability of...
Article
Full-text available
Obtaining reasonable estimates for transmission rates from observed data is a challenge when using mathematical models to study the dynamics of ?infectious? diseases, like Ebola. Most models assume the transmission rate of a contagion either does not vary over time or change in a fixed pre-determined adhoc ways. However, these rates do vary during...
Preprint
Full-text available
Despite commercial airlines mandating masks, there have been multiple documented events of COVID-19 superspreading on flights. We used available data from three flights, including cabin layout and seat locations of infected and uninfected passengers, to suggest interventions to mitigate COVID-19 superspreading events during air travel. Specifically...
Preprint
Full-text available
Obtaining reasonable estimates for transmission rates from observed data is a challenge when using mathematical models to study the dynamics of infectious diseases, like Ebola. Most models assume the transmission rate of a contagion does not vary over time. However, these rates do vary during an epidemic due to environmental conditions, social beha...
Article
Prevention of crops from pest has always been a serious cause of concern throughout the world, especially in agricultural countries as it contributes majorly to the economy of these countries. Keeping in mind this issue, we have formulated a mathematical model of Eggplant fruit and shoot borer which has been controlled through biological control. T...
Preprint
Full-text available
The advent of vaccinations has heightened global optimism that the end of the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic could be in sight. However, concerns, including the impact of variations in the rates of vaccination between countries, raise questions about the use of mass vaccination for accomplishing a quick recovery from the contagion. Here, we used a SEIR-based...
Article
Full-text available
Airlines have introduced a back-to-front boarding process in response to the COVID-19 pandemic. It is motivated by the desire to reduce passengers' likelihood of passing close to seated passengers when they take their seats. However, our prior work on the risk of Ebola spread in aeroplanes suggested that the driving force for increased exposure to...
Article
Full-text available
Ischaemic Hepatitis (IH) or Hypoxic Hepatitis (HH) also known as centrilobular liver cell necrosis is an acute liver injury characterized by a rapid increase in serum aminotransferase. The liver injury typically results from different underlying medical conditions such as cardiac failure, respiratory failure and septic shock in which the liver beco...
Article
Full-text available
Emerging infectious diseases have impacted human race regularly with the past few decades alone has been rife with outbreaks such as H7N9 Avian-influenza (2013), Ebola (2014), MERS-CoV (2012), SARS-CoV1 (2003), and Zika (2015). COVID-19 coronavirus variants are emerging across the globe causing ongoing pandemic. Older age, male sex, number of comor...
Article
Full-text available
We study a general multi-host model of visceral leishmaniasis including both humans and animals, and where host and vector characteristics are captured via host competence along with vector biting preference. Additionally, the model accounts for spatial heterogeneity in human population and heterogeneity in biting behaviour of sandflies. We then us...
Article
Acetaminophen (APAP) overdose is one of the predominant causes of drug induced acute liver injury in the U.S and U.K. Clinical studies show that ingestion of alcohol may increase the risk of APAP induced liver injury. Chronic alcoholism may potentiate APAP hepatotoxicity and this increased risk of APAP toxicity is observed when APAP is ingested eve...
Preprint
Full-text available
College-aged students are one of the most vulnerable populations to high-risk alcohol drinking behaviors that could cause them consequences such as injury or sexual assault. An important factor that may influence college students' decision on alcohol drinking behavior is socializing at certain contexts across university environment. The present stu...
Article
Full-text available
In this paper, we present a formulation for a multiscale model combining a social force based pedestrian movement including collision avoidance and a stochastic infection dynamics framework to evaluate the spread of multiple infectious diseases during air travel. We apply the multiscale model to evaluate pedestrian movement strategies that can redu...
Poster
Full-text available
Ecuador has reported one of the highest per capita death rates of COVID-19 in the world, with more than 5000 deaths in a country of approxi-mately 17 million people. Transmission of COVID-19 infection in Ecuador has been the result of contact patterns, mobility structure of the population, regional epidemiology, and efficacy of public health interv...
Poster
Full-text available
COVID-19 disease has become a pandemic just a few months after it was first detected. Ecuador has reported one of the highest rates of COVID-19 in Latin America, with more than 62,000 cases and 8,500 deaths in a country of approximately 17 million people. The dynamics of the outbreak is being observed quite different in different provinces of Ecuad...
Preprint
Full-text available
Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), a novel infectious disease first identified in December 2019 in the city of Wuhan of China, is caused by severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2). The disease has become a pandemic in just a few months and spread globally with more than 2.89 million cases and 203,000 deaths across 185 countri...
Preprint
Full-text available
Acetaminophen (APAP) overdose is one of the predominant causes of drug induced acute liver injury in the U.S and U.K. Clinical studies show that ingestion of alcohol may increase the risk of APAP induced liver injury. Chronic alcoholism may potentiate APAP hepatotoxicity and this increased risk of APAP toxicity is observed when APAP is ingested eve...
Preprint
Airlines have introduced a back-to-front boarding process in response to the COVID-19 pandemic. It is motivated by the desire to reduce passengers' likelihood of passing close to seated passengers when they take their seats. However, our prior work on the risk of Ebola spread in airplanes suggested that the driving force for increased exposure to i...
Preprint
Full-text available
Introduction: As SARS-COV-2 and the disease COVID-19 is sweeping through countries after countries around the globe, it is critical to understand potential burden of a future outbreak in cities of Colombia. This pandemic has affected most of the countries in the world because the high global movement of individuals and excessive cost in interventio...
Article
Infection of Herpes Simplex Virus type 2 (HSV–2) is a lifelong sexually transmitted disease. According to the Center for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), 11.9% of the United States (U.S.) population was infected with HSV–2 in 2015-2016. The HSV–2 pathogen establishes latent infections in neural cells and can reactivate causing lesions later in...
Preprint
In this research article, we developed and analyzed a mathematical model for studying the dynamics of homelessness in a resource-limited community. In the model, the homelessness is assumed to spread via social and neighborhood influences as well as due to demographic factors. The model, parameterized using data from the county of Los Angeles-Calif...
Preprint
Full-text available
Ischaemic Hepatitis (IH) or Hypoxic Hepatitis (HH) also known as centrilobular liver cell necrosis is an acute liver injury characterized by a rapid increase in serum aminotransferase. The liver injury typically results from another underlying medical conditions like cardiac failure, respiratory failure and septic shock in which the liver becomes d...
Article
Full-text available
Lyme disease is one of the most prevalent and fastest growing vector-borne bacterial illnesses in the United States, with over 25,000 new confirmed cases every year. Humans contract the bacterium Borrelia burgdorferi through the bite of the tick Ixodes scapularis. The tick can receive the bacterium from a variety of small mammal and bird species, b...
Conference Paper
In several academic activities students experience a considerable stress in their daily life. Stressors may affect the mental and physical health of college students, leading some of them to the burnout syndrome. To evaluate this syndrome in students at Arizona State University (ASU), USA, a survey was conducted using a questionnaire previously dev...
Article
Full-text available
Cutaneous leishmaniasis (CL) is a neglected tropical disease transmitted by species of Phlebotominae sand flies. CL is responsible for more than 1000 reported cases per year in Ecuador. Vector collection studies in Ecuador suggest that there is a strong association between the ecological diversity of an ecosystem, the presence of potential alternat...
Preprint
Full-text available
Vector-borne diseases cause more than 1 million deaths annually. Estimates of epidemic risk at high spatial resolutions can enable effective public health interventions. Our goal is to identify the risk of importation of such diseases into vulnerable cities at the granularity of neighborhoods. Conventional models cannot achieve such spatial resolut...
Preprint
Full-text available
The two hyper–endemic regions for Visceral Leishmaniasis (VL) in the world are located in India and Sudan. These two countries account for more than half of the world’s VL burden. The regional risk factors associated with VL vary drastically per region. A mathematical model of VL transmission dynamics is introduced and parametrized to quantify risk...
Article
Full-text available
Stochastic epidemic models, generally more realistic than deterministic counterparts, have often been seen too complex for rigorous mathematical analysis because of level of details it requires to comprehensively capture the dynamics of diseases. This problem further becomes intense when complexity of diseases increases as in the case of vector-bor...
Preprint
Full-text available
Background: Underreporting of Visceral Leishmaniasis (VL) in India remains a problem to public health controls. Effective and reliable surveillance systems are critical for monitoring disease outbreaks and public health control programs. However, in India, government surveillance systems are affected by levels of scarcity in resources and therefore...
Chapter
Full-text available
Stochasticity provides a way to evaluate risk in complex population dynamics. This chapter describes how basic stochastic processes and algorithms are used to build models of ecological populations which can then derive probability distributions for population persistence and extinction, explain sustained oscillations generated by stochastic resona...
Preprint
Soil-transmitted helminthiasis (STH), a neglected tropical disease (NTD) remains a major health problem all over the world including Ghana, which has STH prevalence of 25.4%. To control the disease, the government of Ghana currently concentrates on implementing mass drug administration (MDA) efforts focusing only among school-aged children. However...
Preprint
Full-text available
Stochastic epidemic models, generally more realistic than deterministic counterparts, have often been seen too complex for rigorous mathematical analysis because of level of details it requires to comprehensively capture the dynamics of diseases. This problem further becomes intense when complexity of diseasees increases as in the case of vector-bo...
Article
Full-text available
Background Public transportation in general and air travel in particular have been identified as leading factors in the spread of many different viruses. The high economic and public perception costs on the transportation sector due to pandemic events necessitates transportation policy that addresses mitigation. We formulate a multiphysics computat...
Article
Full-text available
Background When attempting to statistically distinguish between a null and an alternative hypothesis, many researchers in the life and social sciences turn to binned statistical analysis methods, or methods that are simply based on the moments of a distribution (such as the mean, and variance). These methods have the advantage of simplicity of impl...
Article
Full-text available
Leishmaniasis is a neglected tropical disease caused by the Leishmania parasite and transmitted by the Phlebotominae subfamily of sandflies, which infects humans and other mammals. Clinical manifestations of the disease include cutaneous leishmaniasis (CL), mucocutaneous leishmaniasis (MCL) and visceral leishmaniasis (VL) with a majority (more than...
Article
Full-text available
Objectives Neglected tropical diseases (NTD), account for a large proportion of the global disease burden, and their control faces several challenges including diminishing human and financial resources for those distressed from such diseases. Visceral leishmaniasis (VL), the second-largest parasitic killer (after malaria) and an NTD affects poor po...
Article
Full-text available
Objective: To stratify and understand the potential transmission processes of Zika virus in Colombia, in order to effectively address the efforts on surveillance and disease control. Methods: We compare R0 , of Zika for municipalities based on data from the regional surveillance system of Antioquia, Colombia. The basic reproduction number (R0 )...
Article
Full-text available
In this paper we develop a multiscale model combining social-force-based pedestrian movement with a population level stochastic infection transmission dynamics framework. The model is then applied to study the infection transmission within airplanes and the transmission of the Ebola virus through casual contacts. Drastic limitations on air-travel d...
Article
Full-text available
We create and analyze a mathematical model to estimate the impact of condom-use and sexual behavior on the prevalence and spread of Sexually Transmitted Infections (STIs). STIs remain a significant public health challenge globally with a high burden of some Sexually Transmitted Diseases (STDs) in both developed and undeveloped countries. Although c...
Article
s: Ninth AACR Conference on the Science of Cancer Health Disparities in Racial/Ethnic Minorities and the Medically Underserved; September 25-28, 2016; Fort Lauderdale, FL Cancer risk behaviors, including tobacco use, alcohol binge drinking, and physical inactivity, co-occur at high rates among racially and ethnically diverse college students. The...
Article
Full-text available
Background The transmission dynamics of Tuberculosis (TB) involve complex epidemiological and socio-economical interactions between individuals living in highly distinct regional conditions. The level of exogenous reinfection and first time infection rates within high-incidence settings may influence the impact of control programs on TB prevalence....
Article
Full-text available
In 2012, more than three million students dropped out from high school. At this pace, we will have more than 30 million Americans without a high school degree by 2022 and relatively high dropout rates among Hispanic and African American students. We have developed and analysed a data-driven mathematical model that includes multiple interacting mech...
Chapter
Full-text available
Developing health promotion programs that support healthy lifestyle behaviors require comprehensive understanding of mechanisms that drive such complex social systems. Policy makers can use models and theories to guide this process at the individuals, groups, and communities levels. Individuals can have multiple risky health behaviors including phy...
Chapter
Neglected tropical diseases (NTDs) pose a devastating obstacle to health and remain a serious concern to poverty and socio-economic upliftment. Recently, WHO with the local public health department has scaled up efforts in control and even eliminating some of the neglected diseases. In spite of this there seems to be long road ahead to achieve comp...
Article
Full-text available
Introduction: Zika epidemic in America was declared a public health emergency of international concern after the rapid spread in the region. Stratification of the potential transmission of the disease is needed to address the efforts surveillance and disease control. The goal of this research is to compare the basic reproductive number of Zika in d...
Article
Full-text available
Neglected tropical diseases (NTD), particularly vector-borne diseases (VBD), account for a large proportion of the global disease burden, and their control faces several challenges including diminishing human and financial resources for those distressed from such diseases. Visceral Leishmaniasis (VL), the second-largest parasitic killer in the worl...
Article
Full-text available
Vector-transmitted diseases such as dengue fever and chikungunya have been spreading rapidly in many parts of the world. The Zika virus has been known since 1947 and invaded South America in 2013. It can be transmitted not only by (mosquito) vectors but also directly through sexual contact. Zika has developed into a serious global health problem be...
Technical Report
Full-text available
Human Immunodeficiency Virus (HIV-1) is a major pandemic with approximately 36.7 million people infected worldwide. Although the prevalence of HIV-1 in Latin America remains stable (around 0.5%) [UNAIDS, 2016], the epidemic is globally expanding among Men Seeking Men (MSM), independently of country or gross domestic product [Beyrer, 2010]. One of t...