Antonio Guillamón

Antonio Guillamón
Universidad Politécnica de Cartagena | UPCT · Departmetn of Applied Mathematics and Statistics

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54
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466
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Publications

Publications (54)
Article
Demand Response (DR) is an opportunity and a concern for markets as well as power system flexibility. The deployment of DR depends on both knowledge on its performance and how to measure it effectively to provide adequate economic feedback. DR verification requires a baseline reference. This paper introduces a new baseline that provides an evaluati...
Article
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The control of the main environmental factors that influence the quality of perishable products is one of the main challenges of the food industry. Temperature is the main factor affecting quality, but other factors like relative humidity and gas concentrations (mainly C2H4, O2 and CO2) also play an important role in maintaining the postharvest qua...
Article
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Automatic irrigation scheduling systems are highly demanded in the agricultural sector due to their ability to both save water and manage deficit irrigation strategies. Elaborating a functional and efficient automatic irrigation system is a very complex task due to the high number of factors that the technician considers when managing irrigation in...
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The development of Short-Term Forecasting Techniques has a great importance for power system scheduling and managing. Therefore, many recent research papers have dealt with the proposal of new forecasting models searching for higher efficiency and accuracy. Several kinds of artificial intelligence (AI) techniques have provided good performance at p...
Article
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Two distances based on permutations are considered to measure the similarity of two time series according to their strength of dependency. The distance measures are used together with different linkages to get hierarchical clustering methods of time series by dependency. We apply these distances to both simulated theoretical and real data series. F...
Article
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The development of renewable sources in residential segments is basic to achieve a sustainable energy scenario in the horizon 2030–2050 because these segments explain around 25% of the final energy consumption. Demand Response and its effective coordination with renewable are additional concerns for residential segments. This paper deals with two p...
Article
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Load forecasting models are of great importance in Electricity Markets and a wide range of techniques have been developed according to the objective being pursued. The increase of smart meters in different sectors (residential, commercial, universities, etc.) allows accessing the electricity consumption nearly in real time and provides those custom...
Conference Paper
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La determinación de la evapotranspiración del cultivo (ETc) es un tema de gran importancia en la gestión del regadío. Numerosos autores han propuesto coeficientes y técnicas para la obtención de la ETc. Desde el punto de vista práctico, la ETc es directamente medible con técnicas de lisimetría, pero dada la gran complejidad y la poca escalabilidad...
Article
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The objectives of improving the efficiency, and integration, of renewable sources by 2030–2050 are complex in practice and should be linked to an increase of demand-side flexibility. The main challenges to achieving this flexibility are the lack of incentives and an adequate framework. For instance, customers’ revenue is usually low, the volatility...
Conference Paper
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The participation of Demand Response in energy and operation markets is gaining interest in the last years due to the necessity of integrating renewable resources in the Power Systems. The potential of small demand segments is very high, but its complexity (thousands of customers to achieve the same potential that large customers) and costs (for in...
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In this paper, we propose a novel approach for clustering time series, which combines three well-known aspects: a permutation-based coding of the time series, several distance measurements for discrete distributions and hierarchical clustering using different linkages. The proposed method classifies a set of time series into homogeneous groups, acc...
Article
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The aim of this paper is bringing a bit of light on the problem of testing independence for time series. We make a comparative study of the well-known BDS test versus the new tests based on permutations that have been recently developed by several authors. Our study shows that even for purely deterministic time series the tests systematically fails...
Article
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En este trabajo se comparan los resultados obtenidos en la asignatura de Informática, impartida, en el CUD y en una Titulación de Grado en Ingeniería Mecánica (GIM) de la Escuela Técnica Superior de Ingeniería Industrial (ETSII), por los mismos profesores, con los mismos medios docentes, los mismos contenidos, el mismo nivel de exigencia y los mism...
Article
The research of the Bullwhip effect has given rise to many papers, aimed at both analysing its causes and correcting it by means of various management strategies because it has been considered as one of the critical problems in a supply chain. This study is dealing with one of its principal causes, demand forecasting. Using different simulated dema...
Article
Full-text available
Generating sequences of random numbers or bits is a necessity in many situations (cryptography, modeling, simulations, etc). Those sequences must be random in the sense that their behavior should be unpredictable. For example, the security of many cryptographic systems depends on the generation of unpredictable values to be used as keys. Since rand...
Article
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Several measures of volatility have been developed in order to quantify the degree of uncertainty of an energy price series, which include historical volatility and price velocities, among others. This paper suggests using the permutation entropy, topological entropy and the modified permutation entropy as alternatives to measure volatility in ener...
Article
The number of permutations appearing in data series is used for detecting changes in the structure of such series. We show the influence of the permutations length (embedding dimension) in order to get good results. We use permutations to analyze real data from medical and biological origins. Some problems that appear in applying these techniques a...
Article
In this paper, we propose an independence test between two time series which is based on permutations. The proposed test can be carried out by means of different common statistics such as Pearson’s chi-square or the likelihood ratio. We also point out why an exact test is necessary. Simulated and real data (return exchange rates between several cur...
Article
Price fluctuation is a practice commonly used by companies to stimulate demand and a main cause of the Bullwhip effect. Assuming a staggered step demand pattern that responds elastically to retailer’s price fluctuation, and by using a supply chain management dynamic model, we will analyse the impact of these fluctuations on the variability of the o...
Article
The aim of this study is to propose a methodology in order to obtain a better support management decisions in terms of planning of bids and energy offers in real-time energy markets. Specifically, the authors use self-organising maps and statistical Ward's linkage to classify electricity market prices into different clusters (high homogeneity insid...
Article
La fluctuación de los precios es una práctica utilizada normalmente por los empresarios para estimular la demanda. Asumiendo un patrón de demanda tipo escalón, que responde elásticamente a la fluctuación de los precios ofrecidos por el minorista al cliente final, se analizará, utilizando el modelo dinámico de gestión de cadena de suministro propues...
Article
Full-text available
The main aim of this paper is to show how the use of permutations can be useful in the study of time series analysis. In particular, we introduce a test for checking the independence of a time series which is based on the number of admissible permutations on it. The main improvement in our tests is that we are able to give a theoretical distributio...
Article
The Bullwhip effect is a well-known phenomenon, which affects the supply chain management process. It produces variations in a customer’s demand pattern, which amplify as they pass through the production, supply and distribution processes. The deviation gets amplified upstream at each level of the chain, in the form of replenishment orders. Forrest...
Conference Paper
Full-text available
The main objective of electricity regulators when establishing electricity markets is to decrease the cost of electricity through competition. However, this scenario can not be achieved without the full participation of the electricity demand. The aim of this paper is to propose a procedure, through the detection of electricity-price patterns based...
Article
In this paper, we obtain and discuss some general properties of hazard rate (HR) functions constructed via generalized mixtures of two members. These results are applied to determine the shape of generalized mixtures of an increasing hazard rate (IHR) model and an exponential model. In addition, we note that these kind of generalized mixtures can b...
Conference Paper
The main objective of electricity regulators when establishing electricity markets is to decrease the cost of electricity through competition. However, this scenario can not be achieved without a full participation of the electricity demand by reacting against electricity prices. The aim of this research is to develop tools for helping customers an...
Article
A new polycarbonate (LS2) nanocomposite containing a 3 wt% proportion of the organically modified montmorillonite bentone 2010 (B 2010) has been prepared by extrusion and injection moulding, and its tribological properties determined under a pin-on-disc configuration against stainless steel. The nanocomposite (LS2 + 3% B 2010) presents a 88% reduct...
Chapter
The study of fatigue has increased by leaps and bounds; however, still no universal definition exists and fatigue remains a vague concept used as an umbrella term that comprises of physiological, emotional, and behavioral factors that can result in chronic physical or mental states affecting the cognitive, memory, motoric, and perceptive capacities...
Conference Paper
Full-text available
Pollen time-series can be considered as being generated by biological system with inherently nonlinear dynamics. The purpose of this paper is to characterize the several pollinic stations using the fractal dimension. In our research, it was computed in MATLAB, over data obtained in Murcia, Spain. The fractal dimension is a measure of signal complex...
Conference Paper
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En el presente trabajo se presenta manera teórica una métrica que permite la clasificación de señales del habla. Dicha mét-ica está basada en los coeficientes cepstrales obtenidos a partir de una parametrización ARMA de la señal objeto de estudio. En este sentido, considerando un modelo ARMA como una función racional compleja es posible definir una...
Conference Paper
Full-text available
In this paper, we purpose a theoretical development of a metric for speech classification based on cepstral features obtained from ARMA models. Thus working with an ARMA modet as a complex rational function, is possible to define a metric d(M,M') between two stable ARMA models M, M' by means of the cepstrum coefficients of the models. This metric m...
Conference Paper
Speech signals can be considered as being generated by mechanical systems with inherently nonlinear dynamics. The purpose of this paper is to present an automatic segmentation method based on nonlinear dynamics with low computational cost. The fractal dimension is a measure of signal complexity that can characterize different voiced and unvoiced. T...
Article
Full-text available
Speech signals can be considered as being generated by mechanical system with inherently nonlinear dynamics. The purpose of this paper is to describe its complexity using the fractal dimension of a variety of spanish voiced sounds (vowels, nasals) and unvoiced sounds (fricatives) In our research, the fractal dimension was computed over recorder sig...
Article
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RESUMEN En el presente n:abajo se presentan los resultados obtenidos mediante tur sistema de segmantación propio totalmente automático de señales del habla natural implemørtado en el entomo de programación LabView. El sistema prcpuesto reabzala ABSTRACT This paper intodt¡ces the results obtained by means of an automatic segmentation procedure of na...
Conference Paper
Full-text available
Speech signals can be considered as being generated by a mechanical system with inherently nonlinear dynamics. The justification for this comment is apparent when one considers the production of speech. We make use of the largest Lyapunov exponent which estimates the amount of chaos in a system. The largest Lyapunov exponent was calculated for a va...
Article
Recently, [1]1. Ebrahimi , N. 1996 . How to measure uncertainty about residual life time . Sankhya Ser. A , 58 : 48 – 57 . View all references proposed a dynamic measure based on differential entropy applied to the residual lifetime. This measure has been used for the classification and ordering of survival functions. More recently, [2]2. Ebrahimi...
Conference Paper
Full-text available
En un sistema de reconocimiento de locutores, un locutor particular es identificado como uno de entre los que forman parte de un conjunto finito de referencia. En términos generales, el sistema que proponemos en este trabajo podría tener dos etapas fundamentales: (i) análisis ARMA de la señal del habla (ii) clasificación para llegar a una decisión....
Article
In this paper, we study the estimation of the vitality function(v(x)=E(X|X>x) and mean residual life function(e(x)=E(X-x|X>x) from a sample ofX using the empirical estimator and kernel estimator. Under suitable conditions of regularity, the asymptotic normality of the kernel estimator is obtained.
Article
In this paper we compare the kernel density estimators proposed by Bhattacharyya et al. (1988) and Jones (1991) for length biased data, showing the asymptotic normality of the estimators. A method to construct a new estimator is proposed. Moreover, we extend these results to weighted data and we study an estimator for the weight function.
Article
In this paper, we develop a nonparametrie recursive estimator for the vitality and mena residual life function, based on kernel density estimators under mixing dependence conditions. The consistency and asymptotic normality of the estimator are established, under suitable regularity conditions. It is also shown that the Integrated Mean Squared Erro...
Article
Full-text available
Price fluctuation is a practice commonly used by companies to stimulate demand and a main cause of the Bullwhip effect. Assuming a staggered step demand pattern that responds elastically to retailer's price fluctuation, and by using a supply chain management dynamic model, we will analyse the impact of these fluctuations on the variability of the o...
Article
Full-text available
The objective of this research is to show the capacity of Self-Organizing Maps to classify customer and their response potential from electrical demand databases with the help of Non-Parametric Estimation and Physically Load Based modelling as support tools. The searching of customer suitability is focussed to real time products, whose interest is...

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