Antonio A. Golpe

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• PhD in Economics
• Full Professor at University of Huelva

This paper has assessed the dynamics of entrepreneurial ecosystems across the US states. To do this, we have used the Startup Formation Rate (SFR) and the Entrepreneurial Quality Index (EQI) from a novel data set called the Startup Cartography Project, which spans from 1988 to 2014. For this purpose, we have applied the Phillips and Sul (Econometri...

Purpose This paper aims to analyze the possible interdependencies among fiscal, monetary and growth variables by applying multivariate Granger Causality and determining an ultimate “causality path” excluding redundant relationships based on a complex endogenous system for each country. Design/methodology/approach We adopt a novel approach to test...

This study analyzes spatial patterns in the entrepreneurial intention of university students in Latin America. Studies on the entrepreneurial phenomenon have paid little attention to possible spatial associations, which might explain the dissimilar resultsreported by prior work. The analysis uses a sample of 70,337 university students drawn from th...

In this study, we employed a developed Fractional Cointegrating Vector Autoregressive (FCVAR) model to analyze the relationship between three different securities, i.e., housing prices, S&P500 stock prices and gold, and inflation rate, to determine the hedging properties of each type of asset against inflation shocks. Our analyses covered seven dec...

The study of the relationship between crude oil and its refined products prices may be perceived as an important tool for testing how are the dynamics and the type of integration of the petro-derivatives market in the United States. In this sense, we have applied a set of causality tests to study the possible presence of asymmetries in the relation...

To assess the ultimate causal flow between monetary policy indicators, fiscal sustainability and economic growth has been deeply studied in the literature. However, this issue is still open to discussion due to mixed results and caveats/limitations of existing studies. Importantly, previous analyses mostly focus on bivariate/trivariate systems, mis...

Objectives: Tobacco companies have introduced heated tobacco product (HTP) in many countries and marketed it on the grounds that it is a less harmful alternative to health. However, tobacco companies have been widely criticized for taking advantage of a loophole that allows electronic devices to circumvent regulations limiting tobacco advertising....

In this paper, we apply the spatial panel model that accounts for serial dynamics, cross-sectional dependence, and common factors to assess interest rate sensitivity across the term structure to changes in the policy rate. Considering the Quantitative Easing (QE) program as a breakpoint, we apply this method before and after implementing this progr...

Antecedentes: El propósito del estudio fue identificar las asociaciones entre el riesgo para la salud mental, los intentos de suicidio y la función familiar. Métodos: Se realizó un estudio descriptivo, correlacional y transversal en un grupo de adolescentes del último grado de secundaria para establecer la asociación entre el riesgo para la salud m...

This paper aims to analyze and compare the driving forces of the carbon dioxide emissions of the six highest emitters of the world, namely, China, the United States of America, the European Union, India, Russia, and Japan, which are responsible for more than the 67% of the emissions, during the period 1990–2018. The analysis is based on an enlarged...

This paper aims to analyse and compare the driving forces of the carbon dioxide emissions of the six highest emitters of the world, namely, China, the United States of America, the European Union, India, Russia, and Japan, which are responsible for more than the 67% of the emissions, during the period 1990-2018. The analysis is based on an enlarged...

Background: The study’s purpose was to identify associations between mental health risk, suicide attempts, and family function. Methods: A correlational, descriptive, and cross-sectional study was carried out in a group of adolescents in the last grade of secondary school to establish the association between mental health risk, suicide attempt, and...

Most representative decision-tree ensemble methods have been used to examine the variable importance of Treasury term spreads to predict US economic recessions with a balance of generating rules for US economic recession detection. A strategy is proposed for training the classifiers with Treasury term spreads data and the results are compared in or...

There is literature that questions the veracity of the studies commissioned by the transnational tobacco companies (TTC) to measure the illicit tobacco trade. Furthermore, there are studies that indicate that the Empty Pack Surveys (EPS) ordered by the TTCs are oversized. The novelty of this study is that, in addition to detecting the anomalies ana...

Most representative decision tree ensemble methods have been used to examine the variable importance of Treasury term spreads to predict US economic recessions with a balance of generating rules for US economic recession detection. A strategy is proposed for training the classifiers with Treasury term spreads data and the results are compared in or...

ScienCity es una actividad que viene siendo continuada desde 2018 con el objetivo de dar a conocer los conocimientos y tecnologías emergentes siendo investigados en las universidades, informar de experiencias, servicios e iniciativas puestas ya en marcha por instituciones y empresas, llegar hasta decisores políticos que podrían crear sinergias, inc...

Objective Philip Morris International, has already introduced its heated tobacco product, IQOS, in many countries and marketed it on the grounds that it is a less harmful alternative to health. The company claims that its intention is for its brand's traditional cigarette smokers to replace these with IQOS has rarely been independently tested. Met...

Introduction: There is a literature that questions the veracity of the studies commissioned by transnational tobacco companies (TTCs) to measure the illicit tobacco trade. Furthermore, there are studies that have indicated that the empty pack surveys (EPSs) ordered by TTCs overestimate the size of this trade. This study simultaneously analyzed whe...

The price formation of crude oil and its refined products plays an essential role in the global economic system and mainly in the United States, where any shock on this market has implications for the different concerned parties. In this sense, we employ the fractionally cointegrated vector autoregressive model to analyze the long-run relationship...

Research background: We analyse the added worker effect (AWE) and the discouraged worker effect (DWE) from an aggregate perspective. The first effect refers to an increase in labour force participation in response to a decrease in the wage rate. The second effect refers to the decision by workers who have been unsuccessful in their job search to le...

Spain is one of the most visited countries in the world. However, given that the number of tourist arrivals hugely differ among Spanish regions, notable tourist regional inequalities are perceived in this country. In this context, spatial econometric techniques can be used as an instrument to understand these regional disparities. In particular, th...

This paper outlines possible useful marketing strategies for companies to develop in a regulated market. The empirical analysis aims to highlight whether companies can use marketing strategies to create competitive advantages and scale positions in sales leadership once regulation policies are introduced. To this end, we apply two econometric appro...

We study the long-run relationship between unemployment and the labour force participation rate while accounting for potential non-linearities. We explore two sources of non-linearities: structural breaks (as we allow the relationship to be time-varying) and differences by gender groups. We apply a novel approach, as we extend the cointegration ana...

Objective: The price elasticity of tobacco emerges as an instrument for minimizing tobacco consumption, sustained by the idea that although tobacco has an addictive nature, an increase in its price causes a decrease in its consumption. However, the price is not the only component of tobacco consumption studied in the literature. Some studies inclu...

Self‐employment is a geographical phenomenon influenced by national and regional contexts. However, the study of both contexts combined is scarce in the literature on the formation of regional clusters. Using panel data from the USA for 1998‐2018, we perform different techniques to study both contexts combined, including exploratory spatial data an...

Many theoretical and empirical studies have analyzed the relationship between the economic cycle and tobacco consumption using the GDP and unemployment rates as the key variables for measuring economic phases. However, few studies focus on the pathways that cause tobacco consumption to be linked with the economic cycle, and there are no studies ana...

This paper examines the stationary properties of the electricity consumption of five main sectors (residential, public services, industrial, agricultural, and street lighting) in Iran over the period 1967–2017. To analyze the data, we apply the Lagrange Multiplier (LM) and GARCH-based unit root tests with structural breaks. The results of our study...

In this paper, we apply a novel econometric approach joint with an exhaustive revision of the main events in the history of US monetary policy in order to check the effectiveness of monetary policy focused on interest rates. Unlike the traditional cointegration approach, this new methodology allows us to break with the rigidity of traditional appro...

Objectives The objective of this short communication is to provide a previous empirical analysis to locate the regions that have distortions in per capita tobacco consumption. The location of these regions and their proximity to other countries allow us to detect the need that governments have to harmonize policies. Study design The design of this...

Unemployment has been routinely used as a measure of the economic cycle. In addition, regional unemployment rates are characterized by, among other factors, their relation to the national unemployment rate. In this regard, the literature on regional sensitivity to the economic cycle has analyzed how fluctuations in the national unemployment rate af...

Objectives Extensive empirical and theoretical studies have been devoted to analyzing the relationship between tobacco and income. The price and income elasticities of demand for cigarette consumption are the main focus of studies in this body of literature. However, few empirical studies exist that analyze how economic growth affects the cigarette...

Introduction: There is an agreement in the literature that tobacco price elasticity is around -0.4 for given location. Furthermore, works only focus separately, on the temporal dimension or the spatial dimension, however, there are studies that show the existence of spillovers between different geographical areas due to the spatial dependence in t...

In this paper, we consider the possibility that a fractionally cointegrated vector autoregressive (FCVAR) model could serve as a novel empirical tool for examining the US term structure of interest rates. This econometric approach allows one to test the existence of a long-run relationship between short- and long-term interest rates and spread pers...

We examine whether discouraged and added worker effects are state-dependent, business cycle phase-dependent, or change stochastically. We use quarterly LFS data for the 1995–2016 period for Poland. Labor force participation rate behaves non-linearly. The change is rapid and connected to the stable value of the cyclical unemployment rate. An unemplo...

The standard cointegration and the persistence of the spread of the Brent-WTI price have been widely analyzed. However, no studies have been able to present evidence of both issues jointly so far. A novel focus is presented in this paper from the application of the fractionally cointegrated vector autoregressive (FCVAR) approach, which allows the r...

Purpose During recent years, the nexus between unemployment and entrepreneurship has been examined in depth in developed and industrialised economies but rarely in developing economies. The purpose of this paper is to investigate such a relation in the case of 30 Iranian provinces from 2005Q2 to 2017Q4. Using both the autoregressive distributed lag...

This paper provides estimates of the elasticity of substitution between operational and managerial jobs in the US economy during the years 1969–2014, derived from an aggregate CES production function. Estimating the long-term relationship between (the log of) the aggregate employment/self-employment ratio and (the log of) the returns from paid-empl...

To signal monetary policies and market expectations, we apply a fractionally cointegrated vector autoregressive (FCVAR) model, aiming to analyse the expectations hypothesis of term structure (EHTS), persistence in the Euro OverNight Index Average (Eonia) spread and permanent-transitory decomposition using a novel approach. We use a monthly frequenc...

This paper provides estimates of the elasticity of substitution between operational and managerial jobs in the US economy covering a period of almost five decades, derived from an aggregate CES production function. Estimating the long-term relationship between (the log of) the aggregate employment/self-employment ratio and (the log of) the returns...

This paper examines financial integration among stock markets in the Eurozone using the prices from each stock index. Monthly time series are constructed for four major stock indices for the period between 1998 and 2016. A fractional cointegrated vector autoregressive model is estimated at an international level. Our results show that there is a pe...

During the recent years, the nexus between unemployment and entrepreneurship has created a considerable focus on developed and industrialized economies, but not developing ones. The main target of this paper is to investigate such a relation in the case of 30 Iranian provinces from 2005Q2 to 2017Q4. Using the ARDL bounds testing and VECM Granger ca...

In this chapter, we summarized an empirical review of the EHTS aiming to establish the adequate procedures for its measurement by using time series. On one hand, the chapter discusses the main findings in the literature in the USA and the EMU and, on the other hand, analyses the linearity restrictions associated with the traditional approaches used...

This article analyses how income shocks in nine countries with major tourism flows to Spain affect the Spanish tourism arrivals for the period 2000–2017. To this end, we apply a Granger causality analysis based on augmented vector autoregressive (VAR) model in levels and extra lags. This provides more efficient and robust results than the standard...

In this paper we test the hypothesis of convergence in a set of twelve of the main tourism source markets of Spain over a time period that ranges from January 2000 to September 2015. We analyse the potential convergence by following an econometric strategy consisting of three different methodologies. Firstly, we test for the presence of full conver...

This study analyzes the impact of GDP shocks in USA on primary energy consumption and the reverse impact in a comprehensive and novel framework, distinguishing by economic sectors (commercial, industrial, residential and transportation) and energy source, i.e., total fossil (coal, natural gas and petroleum), nuclear, and renewable (hydroelectric, g...

In this paper, we analyze the existence of the environmental Kuznets curve as reported by Kuznets (Am Econ Rev 5:1–28, 1955) by using the methodology proposed by Kejriwal and Perron (J Econ 146:59–73, 2008, J Bus Econ Stat 28:503–522, 2010) and applying Jaunky’s (Energy Policy 39(3):1228–1240, 2011) specification using quarterly data from 1973:1 to...

This paper analyzes the convergence process in CO2 emissions per capita among 10 South American countries from 1980 to 2010 based on their Kaya components, namely, gross domestic product (GDP) per capita, energy intensity and CO2 intensity. This work tries to find out whether a set of countries of a given region share common convergence patterns in...

En el presente trabajo, se muestra una aplicación haciendo uso de la hoja de cálculo EXCEL del modelo de oferta y demanda dinámico. La impartición de la asignatura de macroeconomía en los primeros cursos de los grados de ADE y Economía, así como el escaso bagaje matemático y de programación de dichos alumnos en esos cursos, hace que el profesor, a...

Many regional development policy initiatives assume that entrepreneurial activities promote economic growth. Empirical research has presented rationale for this argument showing that small firms create proportionally more new jobs than large firms. However, little research has been performed on the issue of net job generation at the urban level, pa...

In this article, we study if the ‘recession-push’ hypothesis, i.e. the relationship running from unemployment to entrepreneurship/self-employment is affected asymmetrically by country dynamic labor market conditions. To this end, we use a panel threshold regression model that allows the unemployment rate to have an asymmetric impact of the rate of...

This contribution presents a model for estimating CO 2 emissions in a given country for a near future. The model is based on a modification of the Kaya identity that allows to connect gross domestic product, productive sectoral structure, energy matrix, and energy intensity with CO 2 emissions. A key point in the model will be the introduction of a...

This contribution presents a model for estimating CO 2 emissions in a given country for a near future. The model is based on a modification of the Kaya identity that allows to connect gross domestic product, productive sectoral structure, energy matrix, and energy intensity with CO 2 emissions. A key point in the model will be the introduction of a...

The aim of this work is to identify whether the bidirectional relationship between entrepreneurship cycles and output gaps is asymmetric depending on the phase of the business cycle. To this end, we employ a panel threshold regression model in which different relations can prevail in each regime, defined by the values of the threshold variable. The...

This paper is aimed to test the causality relationship between the cycles of tourism and economic development for the case of Spain using quarterly time-series data on gross domestic product, the number of nights spent in Spanish tourist accommodations and real exchange rates from 1980 to 2013. A distinction between nights spent by foreign and nati...

The Spanish seasonally adjusted unemployment rate stood at 26.1 percent in the last quarter of 2012, almost three percentage points higher than one year earlier and almost 12 percentage points higher than at the end of 2008. Although the exponential growth of Spanish unemployment is mainly caused by a lower demand for labor, there is also a second...

This work tries to determine whether it is possible to stabilize CO2 emissions under a rapid increase of Gross Domestic Product in a medium term. The paper is an effort to study in detail how changes in the driving forces of the economy affect CO 2 emissions. We study the case of Venezuela for the period 1980-2025, using the methodology proposed by...

Is it possible for a country in the process of development to comply with the Environmental Kuznets Curve (EKC) hypothesis in the medium term? This is the question that inspired this study. This paper is an extension of a previous study focused on economic development and CO 2 emissions in the coming years in Ecuador (Robalino-López et al., 2013)....

Some three to four decades ago, it was generally accepted in economic literature that the average size of firms would continue to increase with progressive economic development. This would be the result of an ever increasing importance of exploitation of scale economies. However, since that time, small-scale selfemployment rates have increased in m...

En el último lustro el sistema de cajas de ahorros español ha pasado de representar el 50 por 100 del sistema financiero a su casi desaparición En este trabajo analizamos el porqué de este aparente éxito inicial y cuales han podido ser las causas de esta descomposición final. Haciendo uso de las leyes de Zipf y Gibrat, se demuestra cómo el crecimie...

This article re-examines the persistence in natural gas consumption using an alternative methodology. In particular we report estimates of an unobserved components model, in which hysteresis exists if cyclical and natural gas consumptions do not evolve independently. In addition, this framework is also extended by using the nonlinear approach, in w...

This paper estimates an unobserved components model to explore coal consumption in the USA. We ask whether coal consumption exhibits hysteresis, defined as a dynamic structure in which the cyclical component of coal consumption has permanent effects on the natural component. In contrast to previous analysis, we provide evidence in favor of hysteres...

The relationship between self-employment and certain macroeconomic variables is often at the heart of the debate about the contributions of self-employment to employment and economic growth; examining this relationship is the aim of this article. This article is devoted to the empirical exploration of the comovement and causality between entreprene...

Previous studies provide suggestive evidence that entrepreneurship varies with the state of the business cycle. This article extends the knowledge base by exploring whether the rate of self-employment – a widely used measure of entrepreneurship – is a lagging or leading indicator of the business cycle. The study, which utilizes time series UK data...

This paper examines the co-movement and causality between selfemployment and paid-employment cycles in the EU-12 countries using annual data spanning the years 1983 to 2008. Using different strategies, the causality and correlations at different horizons are used to analyze the dynamics in the paid-employment-self-employment relationship. The paper...

Spain is destroying more jobs than any other European country. In the third quarter of 2009, the unemployment rate stood at 17.9%, the second-highest rate in the 27-nation EU and the highest rate in the euro area (EA-16). The exponential growth of the Spanish unemployment rate is the by-product of falling employment rates. However, there is a secon...

The relationship between macroeconomic variables and stock market returns is, by now, well-documented in the literature. However, in this article we examine the long-run relationship between stock and bond markets returns over the period from 1991:11 to 2009:11, using Bai and Perron’s multiple structural change approach. Findings indicate that whil...

An often applied labour market policy to combat unemployment is to stimulate unemployed individuals to start their own businesses. Such policy may at least, temporarily lead to increases in self-employment, in particular, in the number of own-account workers. These policies may be called successful when the formerly unemployed individuals remain in...

We explore the macro structure of entrepreneurship rates in a panel of 23 OECD countries over 1972-2006. We find that rates of entrepreneurship in OECD’s countries exhibit persistence rather than hysteresis. Implications for the design of entrepreneurship policies are discussed.

The relationship between self-employment and some macroeconomic variables is and has been at the heart of the debate about self-employment contributions to employment and economic growth. This paper is devoted to the exploration of the co-movement and causality between entrepreneurship and economic performance in both directions. It looks for basic...

The Spanish unemployment rate stood at 14,4 percent in the fourth quarter of 2008, the highest rate in the 27-nation EU. This exponential growth of Spanish unemployment rate is not only the by-product of falling employment but also it is the participation rate that is increasing. For this reason forecasts are underestimating the unemployment rates....

Este artículo resume los principales resultados obtenidos por este grupo de investigación – Proyecto PRY115/09 perteneciente a la convocatoria de proyectos de investigación de 2009 de la Fundación Centro de Estudios Andaluces- sobre las políticas de promoción empresarial, dividiéndolos en dos tipos: los que pueden convertirse en guías útiles para m...

Are banks denying credit to firms and households in Spain? A positive answer to this question seems to be a well installed presumption between analysts and politicians who demand and motivate government intervention in several forms, including direct public finance, publicly loan guarantee schemes and even interest rates subsidization. This paper p...

The relationship between unemployment and self-employment has been studied extensively. Due to its complex, multifaceted nature, various scholars have found a large array of different results, so that the exact nature of the relation is still not clear. An important element of the relation is captured by the recession-push hypothesis which states t...

This paper provides a survey on studies that analyze the macroeconomic effects of intellectual property rights (IPR). The first part of this paper introduces different patent policy instruments and reviews their effects on R&D and economic growth. This part also discusses the distortionary effects and distributional consequences of IPR protection a...

This chapter investigates the relation between changes in self-employment and changes in unemployment at the regional level in Spain in the period 1979-2001. We estimate a vector autoregression model as proposed by Audretsch, Carree, van Stel and Thurik (2005) using a data base for Spanish regions. By estimating the model we are able to empirically...

The impact of labour market institutions on both labour supply and job search rates has been exhaustively analysed in Labour Economics from theoretical as well as empirical approaches. However, research on the impact of this regulation on self-employment and its composition is limited, that is, the impact of labour market institutions on occupation...

The search for a systematic set of indicators to measure the crucial dimensions of the entrepreneurship in relation to its diagnosis, forecast and tracking, has become a very first need for both the economic analysis progress, as well as to obtain an appropriate design, monitoring and evaluation of the public policies. The main contribution of this...

This volume provides a comprehensive review of the theoretical concepts and empirical models of entrepreneurship from a non-conventional perspective. Its main purpose is to contribute to the design of an efficient system of indicators of entrepreneurship and competitiveness. The existence of a gap between the theory of entrepreneurship and the meth...