Antonio Gasparrini

Antonio Gasparrini
London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine | LSHTM · Department of Public Health Environments and Society

BSc Mbiol MSc PhD

About

342
Publications
109,359
Reads
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16,261
Citations
Education
December 2009 - October 2011
London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine
Field of study
  • Medical Statistics
January 2006 - April 2010
University of Milan
Field of study
  • Medical Statistics and Biometry
January 2005 - December 2005
University of Bologna
Field of study
  • Biostatistics

Publications

Publications (342)
Article
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Distributed lag non-linear models (DLNMs) represent a modeling framework to flexibly describe associations showing potentially non-linear and delayed effects in time series data. This methodology rests on the definition of a crossbasis, a bi-dimensional functional space expressed by the combination of two sets of basis functions, which specify the...
Article
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In this paper, we formalize the application of multivariate meta-analysis and meta-regression to synthesize estimates of multi-parameter associations obtained from different studies. This modelling approach extends the standard two-stage analysis used to combine results across different sub-groups or populations. The most straightforward applicatio...
Article
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Recent investigations have reported a decline in the heat-related mortality risk during the last decades. However, these studies are frequently based on modelling approaches that do not fully characterize the complex temperature-mortality relationship, and are limited to single cities or countries. To assess the temporal variation in heat-mortality...
Article
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Although studies have provided estimates of premature deaths attributable to either heat or cold in selected countries, none has so far offered a systematic assessment across the whole temperature range in populations exposed to different climates. We aimed to quantify the total mortality burden attributable to non-optimum ambient temperature, and...
Article
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Distributed lag non-linear models (DLNMs) are a modelling tool for describing potentially non-linear and delayed dependencies. Here, we illustrate an extension of the DLNM framework through the use of penalized splines within generalized additive models (GAM). This extension offers built-in model selection procedures and the possibility of accommod...
Article
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Higher availability of administrative data and better infrastructure for electronic surveys allow for large sample sizes in evaluations of national and other large scale policies. Although larger datasets have many advantages, the use of big disaggregate data (e.g., on individuals, households, stores, municipalities) can be challenging in terms of...
Article
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Background: Epidemiological literature on the health risks associated with non-optimal temperature has mostly reported average estimates across large areas or specific population groups. However, the heterogeneous distribution of drivers of vulnerability can result in local differences in health risks associated with heat and cold. We aimed to ana...
Article
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Rationale: The associations between ambient coarse particulate matter (PM2.5-10) and daily mortality is not fully understood at a global scale. Objectives: To evaluate the short-term associations between PM2.5-10 and total, cardiovascular, and respiratory mortality across multiple countries/regions worldwide. Methods: We collected daily mortal...
Article
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Extreme temperature could affect traffic crashes by influencing road safety, vehicle performance, and drivers’ behavior and abilities. Studies evaluating the impacts of extreme temperatures on the risk of traffic crashes have mainly overlooked the potential role of vehicle air conditioners. The aim of this study, therefore, was to evaluate the effe...
Article
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Climate change is the greatest existential challenge to planetary and human health and is dictated by a shift in the Earth’s weather and air conditions owing to anthropogenic activity. Climate change has resulted not only in extreme temperatures, but also in an increase in the frequency of droughts, wildfires, dust storms, coastal flooding, storm s...
Preprint
Background Cardiovascular diseases (CVDs), the leading cause of death worldwide, are sensitive to temperature. In light of the reported climate change trends, it is important to understand the burden of CVDs attributable to temperature, both hot and cold. The association between CVDs and temperature is region-specific, with relatively few studies f...
Preprint
Background and aim Climate change has far reaching consequences on all aspects of life, including health. Cardiovascular diseases (CVDs), the global leading cause of death, have also been found to be climate sensitive, mainly to temperature. However, the associations between CVDs and temperature are region-specific with relatively few studies focus...
Preprint
It remains unknown whether global warming may have impact on childhood anemia, especially in low-income and middle-income countries (LMIC). We projected childhood anemia cases attributable to climate change in sub-Saharan Africa using anthropometric data of children under 5 years from 26 countries and an ensemble of high-resolution climate change s...
Article
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Background Increased mortality risk is associated with short-term temperature variability. However, to our knowledge, there has been no comprehensive assessment of the temperature variability-related mortality burden worldwide. In this study, using data from the MCC Collaborative Research Network, we first explored the association between temperatu...
Article
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Background The increased availability of data on health outcomes and risk factors collected at fine geographical resolution is one of the main reasons for the rising popularity of epidemiological analyses conducted at small-area level. However, this rich data setting poses important methodological issues related to modelling complexities and comput...
Article
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Background: There is emerging evidence suggesting a link between ambient heat exposure and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) hospitalisations. Individual and contextual characteristics can affect population vulnerabilities to COPD hospitalisation due to heat exposure. This study quantifies the effect of ambient heat on COPD hospitalisat...
Article
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Background The two-stage design has become a standard tool in environmental epidemiology to model multi-location data. However, its standard form is rather inflexible and poses important limitations for modelling complex risks associated with environmental factors. In this contribution, we illustrate multiple design extensions of the classical two-...
Article
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Background Ambient air pollution is thought to contribute to increased risk of COVID-19, but the evidence is controversial. Objective To evaluate the associations between short-term variations in outdoor concentrations of ambient air pollution and COVID-19 emergency department (ED) visits. Methods We conducted a case-crossover study of 78 255 COV...
Article
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Epidemiological analyses of health risks associated with non-optimal temperature are traditionally based on ground observations from weather stations that offer limited spatial and temporal coverage. Climate reanalysis represents an alternative option that provide complete spatio-temporal exposure coverage, and yet are to be systematically explored...
Article
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Background: Because older adults are particularly vulnerable to nonoptimal temperatures, it is expected that the progressive population aging will amplify the health burden attributable to heat and cold due to climate change in future decades. However, limited evidence exists on the contribution of population aging on historical temperature-mortal...
Article
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Studies have investigated the effects of heat and temperature variability (TV) on mortality. However, few assessed whether TV modifies the heat-mortality association. Data on daily temperature and mortality in the warm season were collected from 717 locations across 36 countries. TV was calculated as the standard deviation of the average of the sam...
Article
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Introduction Amid the rising number of people with non-communicable diseases (NCDs), Kenya has invested in strengthening primary care and in efforts to expand existing service delivery platforms to integrate NCD care. One such approach is the AMPATH (Academic Model Providing Access to Healthcare) model in western Kenya, which provides the platform...
Article
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Importance: Most US states have amended self-defense laws to enhance legal immunities for individuals using deadly force in public. Despite concerns that "stand your ground" (SYG) laws unnecessarily encourage the use of deadly violence, their impact on violent deaths and how this varies across states and demographic groups remains unclear. Object...
Article
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Heatwaves are a serious threat to human life. Public health agencies that are responsible for delivering heat-health action plans need to assess and reduce the mortality impacts of heat. Statistical models developed in epidemiology have previously been used to attribute past observed deaths to high temperatures and project future heat-related death...
Article
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Previous studies have reported a decrease in air pollution levels following the enforcement of lockdown measures during the first wave of the COVID-19 pandemic. However, these investigations were mostly based on simple pre-post comparisons using past years as a reference and did not assess the role of different policy interventions. This study cont...
Article
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Introduction Cities have long been known to be society’s predominant engine of innovation and wealth creation, yet they are also hotspots of pollution and disease partly due to current urban and transport practices. The aim of the European Urban Burden of Disease project is to evaluate the health burden and its determinants related to current and f...
Preprint
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Background: Identifying how greenspace impacts the temperature-mortality relationship in urban environments is crucial, especially given climate change and rapid urbanization. To date, studies on this topic have indicated conflicting findings and typically focus on a localized area or single country. We evaluated the effect modification of greenspa...
Article
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Background: The association between fine particulate matter (PM2.5) and mortality widely differs between as well as within countries. Differences in PM2.5 composition can play a role in modifying the effect estimates, but there is little evidence about which components have higher impacts on mortality. Methods: We applied a two-stage analysis on...
Article
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Background Ambient temperature may contribute to seasonality of mortality; in particular, a warming climate is likely to influence the seasonality of mortality. However, few studies have investigated seasonality of mortality under a warming climate. Methods Daily mean temperature, daily counts for all-cause, circulatory, and respiratory mortality,...
Article
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There is conflicting evidence on the influence of weather on COVID-19 transmission. Our aim is to estimate weather-dependent signatures in the early phase of the pandemic, while controlling for socio-economic factors and non-pharmaceutical interventions. We identify a modest non-linear association between mean temperature and the effective reproduc...
Article
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What this study adds The minimum mortality temperature (MMT) is an important indicator of the relationship between temperature and mortality. It indicates the adaptability to climate, but little is known about its geographical changes in the global distribution. This article investigates the geographic differences of the MMT on a global scale and s...
Article
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Introduction Standardised packaging on tobacco products was required in Norway July 1, 2018. We report pre-registered analyses of the potential impact on daily smoking and on daily snus use among women and men. Methods Interrupted time series (segmented regression) on repeated cross-sectional surveys (2012 to 2019) from two sources: probability sa...
Article
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Background Many regions of the world are now facing more frequent and unprecedentedly large wildfires. However, the association between wildfire-related PM2·5 and mortality has not been well characterised. We aimed to comprehensively assess the association between short-term exposure to wildfire-related PM2·5 and mortality across various regions of...
Article
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Background Although seasonal variations in mortality have been recognized for millennia, the role of temperature remains unclear. We aimed to assess seasonal variation in mortality and to examine the contribution of temperature. Methods We compiled daily data on all-cause, cardiovascular and respiratory mortality, temperature and indicators on loc...
Article
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Background Pollen is a well-established trigger of asthma and allergic rhinoconjunctivitis, yet key gaps in our understanding remain. These include knowledge of concentration thresholds for symptoms, exposure-response associations through time, and the potential for interactions with other environmental stressors such as air pollution. Smartphone t...
Article
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Background: Minimum mortality temperature (MMT) is an important indicator to assess the temperature-mortality association, indicating long-term adaptation to local climate. Limited evidence about the geographical variability of the MMT is available at a global scale. Methods: We collected data from 658 communities in 43 countries under different...
Article
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Modern data linkage and technologies provide a way to reconstruct detailed longitudinal profiles of health outcomes and predictors at the individual or small-area level. While these rich data resources offer the possibility to address epidemiologic questions that could not be feasibly examined using traditional studies, they require innovative anal...
Article
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Background Exposure to cold or hot temperatures is associated with premature deaths. We aimed to evaluate the global, regional, and national mortality burden associated with non-optimal ambient temperatures. Methods In this modelling study, we collected time-series data on mortality and ambient temperatures from 750 locations in 43 countries and f...
Article
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Statistical models used to forecast malignant pleural mesothelioma (MPM) trends often do not take into account historical asbestos consumption, possibly resulting in less accurate predictions of the future MPM death toll. We used the distributed lag non-linear model (DLNM) approach to predict future MPM cases in Italy until 2040, based on past asbe...
Article
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Background: There is strong evidence concerning the impact of heat stress on mortality, particularly from high temperatures. However, few studies to our knowledge emphasize the importance of hot nights, which may prevent necessary nocturnal rest. Objectives: In this study, we use hot-night duration and excess to predict daily cause-specific mortal...
Article
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Climate change affects human health; however, there have been no large-scale, systematic efforts to quantify the heat-related human health impacts that have already occurred due to climate change. Here, we use empirical data from 732 locations in 43 countries to estimate the mortality burdens associated with the additional heat exposure that has re...
Article
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Pollen is a well-established trigger of asthma and allergic rhinitis, yet concentration-response relationships, lagged effects, and interactions with other environmental factors remain poorly understood. Smartphone technology offers an opportunity to address these challenges using large, multi-year datasets that capture individual symptoms and expo...
Article
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Over the past decade, Brazil has experienced and continues to be impacted by extreme climate events. This study aims to evaluate the association between daily average temperature and mortality from respiratory disease among Brazilian elderlies. A daily time-series study between 2000 and 2017 in 27 Brazilian cities was conducted. Data outcomes were...
Article
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New gridded climate datasets (GCDs) on spatially‐resolved modelled weather data have recently been released to explore the impacts of climate change. GCDs have been suggested as potential alternatives to weather station data in epidemiological assessments on health impacts of temperature and climate change. These can be particularly useful for asse...
Article
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Air temperature has been the most commonly used exposure metric in assessing relationships between thermal stress and mortality. Lack of the high-quality meteorological station data necessary to adequately characterize the thermal environment has been one of the main limitations for the use of more complex thermal indices. Global climate reanalyses...
Conference Paper
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More than a year since its emergence, there is conflicting evidence on the potential influence of weather conditions on SARS-CoV-2 transmission dynamics. We used a two-stage ecological modelling approach to estimate weather-dependent signatures in SARS-CoV-2 transmission in the early phase of the pandemic, using a dataset of 3 million COVID-19 case...
Article
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Background: Epidemiological evidence on short-term association between ambient carbon monoxide (CO) and mortality is inconclusive and limited to single cities, regions, or countries. Generalisation of results from previous studies is hindered by potential publication bias and different modelling approaches. We therefore assessed the association be...
Article
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Background: Epidemiological evidence on short-term association between ambient carbon monoxide (CO) and mortality is inconclusive and limited to single cities, regions, or countries. Generalisation of results from previous studies is hindered by potential publication bias and different modelling approaches. We therefore assessed the association bet...
Preprint
Full-text available
Background Amid the rising number of people with NCDs, Kenya has invested in strengthening primary care and in efforts to expand existing service delivery platforms to integrate care for managing chronic disease. One such approach is the AMPATH model, established in 2001 in western Kenya to provide HIV treatment and control services. The model was...
Article
Full-text available
Background Temperature and rainfall patterns are known to influence seasonal patterns of dengue transmission. However, the effect of severe drought and extremely wet conditions on the timing and intensity of dengue epidemics is poorly understood. In this study, we aimed to quantify the non-linear and delayed effects of extreme hydrometeorological h...
Article
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Objective To evaluate the short term associations between nitrogen dioxide (NO 2 ) and total, cardiovascular, and respiratory mortality across multiple countries/regions worldwide, using a uniform analytical protocol. Design Two stage, time series approach, with overdispersed generalised linear models and multilevel meta-analysis. Setting 398 cit...
Article
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The health effects of acute exposure to temperature extremes are established; those of long-term exposure only recently received attention. We performed a systematic review to assess the associations of long-term (>3 months) exposure to higher or lower temperature on total and cardiopulmonary mortality and morbidity, screening 3455 studies and sele...
Article
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Although a number of epidemiological studies have examined the effects of non-optimal temperatures on mortality in Europe, evidence about the mortality risks associated with exposures to hot and cold temperatures in Bulgaria is scarce. This study provides evidence about mortality attributable to non-optimal temperatures in adults aged 65 and over i...