Antonie J. Jetter

Antonie J. Jetter
Portland State University | PSU · Department of Engineering and Technology Management

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79
Publications
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Publications

Publications (79)
Article
Full-text available
Despite a large number and steep increase of publications on the use of Fuzzy Cognitive Maps (FCM) for supporting decisions, the method is still underrepresented in the literature on Decision Support Systems (DSS). This limits opportunities for improving managerial decision-making practice. To facilitate knowledge, transfer between the FCM and DSS...
Article
Full-text available
Creating ‘what-if’ scenarios to estimate possible futures is a key component of decision-making processes. However, this activity is labor intensive as it is primarily done manually by subject-matter experts who start by identifying relevant themes and their interconnections to build models, and then craft diverse and meaningful stories as scenario...
Article
It is common for accident reports and the analysis of large-scale disasters, such as the Deepwater Horizon blowout, to point to communication failures. This narrow explanation implicitly assumes that accidents could be prevented if employees spoke up about safety. In contrast, the first author of this paper, whose professional experience is introdu...
Article
In environmental participatory modeling (PM), both computer and non-computer-based modeling techniques are used to aid participatory problem description, solution, and decision-making actions in environmental contexts. Although many PM case studies have been published, few efforts have sought to systematically describe and understand dominant PM pr...
Article
Recently, theoreticians have hypothesized that diverse groups, as opposed to groups that are homogeneous, may have relative merits [S. E. Page, The Diversity Bonus (2019)]-all of which lead to more success in solving complex problems. As such, understanding complex, intertwined environmental and social issues may benefit from the integration of div...
Article
Incorporating relevant stakeholder input into conservation decision making is fundamentally challenging yet critical for understanding both the status of, and human pressures on, natural resources. Collective intelligence (CI ), defined as the ability of a group to accomplish difficult tasks more effectively than individuals, is a growing area of i...
Conference Paper
Full-text available
We present reports of two original research studies [Aminpour et al. 2020 and Gray et al. 2020] in which we used fisheries examples to empirically demonstrate how the Collective Intelligence (CI) of local fishing communities can be harnessed through pooling their Local Ecological Knowledge (LEK) to provide valuable information for sustainable resou...
Article
Full-text available
Sustainable management of natural resources requires adequate scientific knowledge about complex relationships between human and natural systems. Such understanding is difficult to achieve in many contexts due to data scarcity and knowledge limitations. We explore the potential of harnessing the collective intelligence of resource stakeholders to o...
Article
Projects that make effective use of project stakeholder management (PSM) tend to run smoothly and be successful because stakeholders understand and agree with the project approaches and outcomes. Projects with ineffective stakeholder management, on the other hand, frequently experience delays and cost overruns or may even be terminated. To date, pr...
Poster
Full-text available
In this work we explore whether we can harness the collective intelligence of resource stakeholders to create adequate system representations of social-ecological systems. Stakeholders often hold valuable knowledge about social-ecological dynamics, accumulated through their routine interactions with the ecosystems (e.g., while fishing or hunting)....
Article
Full-text available
Participatory Modeling (PM) is becoming increasingly common in environmental planning and conservation, due in part to advances in cyberinfrastructure as well as to greater recognition of the importance of engaging a diverse array of stakeholders in decision making. We provide lessons learned, based on over 200 years of the authors’ cumulative and...
Conference Paper
Full-text available
Currently, Autonomous Vehicle (AV) technology is considered a potentially life-changing new technology that brings science fiction to life and can fundamentally impact how and where people live and work. As is the case with any new technology, it is unknown how the future will unfold. Instead, ideas about the future can be captured through scenario...
Article
Full-text available
Organizational research describes the inherent tension between innovation, as a means to adapt to environmental change, and continuing to do what one does well and what current customers appreciate. Managing this tension successfully leads to so-called ambidexterity. How to achieve it is still a matter of debate: proponents of structural approaches...
Article
Various tools and methods are used in participatory modelling, at different stages of the process and for different purposes. The diversity of tools and methods can create challenges for stakeholders and modelers when selecting the ones most appropriate for their projects. We offer a systematic overview, assessment, and categorization of methods to...
Article
Full-text available
Participatory modeling engages the implicit and explicit knowledge of stakeholders to create formalized and shared representations of reality and has evolved into a field of study as well as a practice. Participatory modeling researchers and practitioners who focus specifically on environmental resources met at the National Socio-Environmental Synt...
Conference Paper
Full-text available
Fuzzy cognitive maps (FCMs) have gained popularity within the scientific community due to their capabilities in modelling and decision making for complex problems. However, despite the large number of papers presenting advances in mathematical formulation and applications of FCMs, along with some recent tools for this soft computing technique, ther...
Conference Paper
Full-text available
This work combines qualitative text analysis, participatory modeling with Fuzzy Cognitive Maps (FCM) with Exploratory Modelling and Analysis (EMA). FCM is suitable for modeling in data-poor environments when the system under study is not well described in quantitative terms. A case in point is safety culture, which describes the values, routines, a...
Conference Paper
Abstract: Researchers in natural resource management can draw valuable insights from crowds not only by estimating the size and status of natural resources based on crowd-supplied observation data, but also by leveraging the crowd’s own ability to directly estimate them. Under specific conditions, researchers can expect that crowds accurately estim...
Conference Paper
Full-text available
Emerging technologies, once adopted, can have severe environmental, social, and economic impacts, that need to be understood and managed proactively. A case in point is autonomous vehicle (AV) technology which can change many aspects of everyday life with immediate impacts on the environment, such as residential preferences, land use, government fi...
Chapter
Modeling how patients adopt personal health technology is a challenging problem: Decision-making processes are largely unknown, occur in complex, multi-stakeholder settings, and may play out differently for different products and users. To address this problem, this chapter develops a soft analytics approach, based on Fuzzy Cognitive Maps (FCM) tha...
Presentation
Full-text available
This research intensively reviews the literature on designing emotional-driven products and aims to identify the drivers of the consumers’ emotional engagement with everyday products. The research also aims to develop a conceptual framework based on the basic model of product emotions and the classical process control, by which the identified emoti...
Conference Paper
Full-text available
When making decision that can have far-researching effects, such as governmental policies or decisions on new technologies, decision-makers use their understanding of the risks that are associated with their choices to guide their decisions. Measuring how people perceive risks can be helpful for understanding and possibly improving the decision-mak...
Conference Paper
Elderly woman strives to have a streamlined life surrounded by ease and familiarity. As she is aging, her desire for simplicity grows, her self-efficacy weakens, her prudency intensifies and her overall inclination toward status quo strengthens. As a result, she delays, or refuses, making any decision that might bring complexity and disrupt the con...
Conference Paper
Fuzzy Cognitive Mapping (FCM) is a semi-quantitative system modeling technique that is used in technology management to capture, synthesize and analyze expert and stakeholder knowledge for the purpose of technology assessment, product planning, and scenario studies. The resulting FCM models are generated in interviews, focus groups, or workshops an...
Article
In this research, a national-level wind energy roadmap is developed through scenario planning. Multiple future scenarios are developed using the fuzzy cognitive maps (FCM) approach. This research has extended technology roadmapping (TRM) through FCM-based scenario analysis. Building scenarios with FCM is a new approach, and for the first time, to t...
Conference Paper
In technology-driven enterprises, marketing typically acts as a “go-between” that captures customer needs and experiences and aggregates and interprets them for engineering. Knowledge exchange thus occurs through an indirect path. However, as a result of rapidly changing and unpredictable environments and complex products with tacit requirements, c...
Conference Paper
As a discipline, project management has been accused of having lost its relevance for innovative initiatives because it emphasizes planning and control over the flexibility and learning-based strategies that are needed to succeed under uncertainty. Several authors therefore recommend adaptive project management practices - sometimes named “targeted...
Conference Paper
One of the most pressing challenges of healthcare innovation today is the lack of technology adoption. Research that improves our ability to understand, predict, and advance technology adoption in health care needs to be based on well-tested theories. With the interest to conduct high quality research in health technology adoption in future, this s...
Article
Full-text available
The German Mittelstand model of the triple helix has been important for facilitating the innovation of small medium enterprises (SMEs) in Germany. Fraunhofer Institutes have provided an innovation intermediary between university research and SME technology. We address the issue of adapting a Mittelstand triple helix from the German national culture...
Article
Full-text available
Fuzzy Cognitive Map (FCM) modelling is highly suitable for the demands of Future Studies: it uses a mix of qualitative and quantitative approaches, it enables the inclusion of multiple and diverse sources to overcome the limitations of expert opinions, it considers multivariate interactions that lead to nonlinearities, and it aims to make implicit...
Chapter
An increasing number of publications in R&D management embrace the concept of social capital to observe, measure, and explain very different phenomena, such as R&D knowledge diffusion patterns; research productivity on the individual, team, and regional levels; and the governance and structure of R&D alliances and partnerships. The various research...
Article
In the present era characterized by uncertainty, innovation and change, scenario planning is an increasingly popular way to look at future environments because of its usefulness in times of uncertainty and complexity. Scenario planning outlines the possible futures, stimulates strategic thinking about the future and helps to overcome thinking limit...
Article
This paper reviews the scenario planning literature looking for answers for the following questions: How do qualitative and quantitative scenario methods differ and what are the advantages and disadvantages? What methods exist for quantitative scenario planning? Particularly quantitative scenario methods often lead to a large number of so-called “r...
Conference Paper
In this paper, multiple future scenarios are developed using Fuzzy Cognitive Maps (FCM) based approach for the national wind energy sector of a developing country. Building scenarios with FCM is a very new approach and three FCM-based scenarios are developed for the national wind energy sector. An expert panel was used to develop these scenarios. T...
Conference Paper
Many new products that were originally welcomed for addressing customer requirements and greater societal needs turn out to have severe negative consequences because product developers uncertain about or unaware of the of the far-reaching and indirect effects of their product designs on diverse stakeholders. Corporate Social Responsibility (CSR) ai...
Conference Paper
Full-text available
Creening decisions in the early stages of product and technology development strongly rely on gatekeepers' intuition or “gut-feel”. This paper opens the black box of heuristic project screening by investigating the screening behavior of experienced gatekeepers through two approaches to cognitive task analysis: critical decision method and process t...
Conference Paper
Despite the fact that women earn almost half of degrees awarded in STEM (Science, Technology, Engineering, Mathematics), these fields are still perceived to be male-dominated. In efforts to promote gender diversity and inclusion, an increasing number of companies are implementing programs such as Northrup Grumman's STEM Connector program, and Intel...
Article
Full-text available
Project screening in the fuzzy front-end of product development is dominantly based on managerial judgment, yet little is known about the quality of heuristic screening decisions. This research models three commonly discussed fast and frugal (F&F) heuristics for project screening (take-the-best, tallying and elimination-by-aspect) and explores thei...
Article
In today's open business environments, innovation happens in globally dispersed organizations that exchange technological knowledge across increasingly permeable boundaries. Innovation intermediaries operate as middle-men between solution seekers (companies seeking technological knowledge for solving their problems) and problem solvers (experts wit...
Conference Paper
Product development can support proactive CSR strategies by changing product features, materials, and processes in order to reduce or even eliminate negative environmental and social impacts. However, the CSR literature provides little practical guidance for new product development, but promotes general principles for responding to environmental an...
Article
Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to explore a very new approach of creating scenarios with fuzzy cognitive maps (FCM); specifically to create scenarios for wind energy deployment. Design/methodology/approach – In this paper a small exercise is conducted to illustrate the usefulness of FCM‐based scenarios. Findings – Scenario‐based planning...
Article
In scenario planning, causal mapping has long been used as a means to elicit the worldviews of multiple experts, facilitate discussion, and challenge and improve mental models. Large and complex causal maps, however, are difficult to analyze. This paper proposes a novel method for scenario building, based on Fuzzy Cognitive Maps, that combines intu...
Conference Paper
Research in psychology is increasingly interested in decision-makers' use of heuristics or rules of thumb because they have accuracies close to more complex decision rules and seem particularly useful in difficult decision-making contexts when uncertainty is high and speed is of the essence. One particularly difficult decision setting is the fuzzy...
Article
This paper reports out of the symposium on 'Technology Management in the Service Sector' which was held as a part of Portland International Conference on Management of Engineering and Technology in 2007. The objectives of the symposium were: to explore how technology management research and education can contribute to the evolving field of services...
Conference Paper
Full-text available
A growing body of research suggests that the fuzzy front-end of product development should not be managed with a one-size-fits-all standard process. Instead, projects with different market and technical uncertainties should be managed with one of five different processes (linear, recursive, evolving, selectionism, trial-and-error). Based on a revie...
Conference Paper
Heuristics are simple rules of thumbs for problem solving that follow a logic that is quite different from consequential logic. They have long been regarded, as an inferior technique for decision making that is the source of irrational decision behavior. Recently, decision making researchers have demonstrated that some heuristics are highly efficie...
Chapter
Full-text available
Technology Management is a dynamically evolving discipline that integrates the technologydominated world of the engineer with management. The field is distinguishable from its neighbor disciplines through characteristic research questions, specialized Production, and more than 200 educational programs. Currently, the field changes its face and incr...
Conference Paper
Many mergers and acquisitions in high technology do not yield the expected results and acquired technologies fail to create value as planned. One explanation is the difficulty to transfer and integrate the tacit components of technological knowledge, when work groups and teams are disrupted. Mergers force work group and team members to redefine the...
Chapter
Im „Fuzzy Front End“, den frühen Phasen der Produktentwicklung, in denen Produktideen erzeugt, bewertet und sukzessive in Produktkonzepte übersetzt werden, erfolgt der Brückenschlag zwischen der strategischen Planung des Unternehmens — seinen Wachstumszielen, Zielmärkten, Technologien — und dem konkreten Produktentwicklungsprojekt. Das Front End is...
Conference Paper
Due to a lack of available data, many early planning decisions in engineering and technology management have to be based on experts' opinions and their qualitative statements about evolving technologies, markets and general business environments. Several authors have suggested the use of fuzzy cognitive maps (FCMs) to analytically support these dec...
Chapter
Knowledge codification takes place when knowledge is written down in books and manuals, stored on films (e.g., instructional videos) or embedded in everyday work procedures or software (e.g., diagnosis software, expert systems). These media are widely used and serve the purpose of articulating, transferring and storing explicit human knowledge. Kno...
Book
The ability to manage knowledge is relevant for millions of small and medium sized enterprises (SMEs) that operate in high-tech environments. They strongly depend on external knowledge about customers, technologies, and competitors because, as opposed to large companies, they have limited internal knowledge resources and little power to control the...
Chapter
In Abschnitt B dieser Arbeit wurde gezeigt, dass die frühen Phasen der Produktentstehung durch hohe Komplexität und Dynamik gekennzeichnet sind, die Entscheider im FFE vor die Aufgabe stellen, hohe Unsicherheit zu bewältigen. Dies ist nicht allein durch Verbesserung der Informationsversorgung zu bewerkstelligen, sondern setzt eine angemessene Infor...
Chapter
Im vorangegangenen Hauptkapitel wurden die generellen Anforderungen und Aufgabenstellungen des FFE sowie vorliegende Erkenntnisse über dessen Erscheinungsformen und Erfolgswirkungen dargestellt. Die Ausführungen gleichen hierbei in einem Punkt vielen Arbeiten über die frühen Phasen der Produktentstehung: Sie beschreiben das FFE und geben generelle...
Chapter
Die inhaltliche Zielsetzung des HAUS wurde bereits in Kapitel D 3.6 (vgl. Seite 305ff.) beschrieben und kritisch gewürdigt. Im vorangegangenen Kapitel wurden die Module des HAUS in Beziehung zu der im Rahmen dieser Arbeit entwickelten Vorgehensmethodik für die FCM-Erstellung gestellt, detailliert erläutert und anhand von Demonstrationsdaten auf ihr...
Chapter
FCM nehmen eine Zwitterstellung zwischen den intuitiv zugänglichen, aber prognostisch schwachen „cognitive mapping“-Verfahren und den aufwendigen quantitativen Systems Dynamics Modellen ein: sie nutzen einfache, qualitative Kausalkarten, um mentale Modelle abzubilden und werten diese mit quantitativen Verfahren aus.
Chapter
Das zu konzipierende HAUS [vgl. Schröder, Jetter: Integrating Knowledge in the FFE 2003; Jetter: Educating the Guess 2003] hat zum Ziel, alle Stationen der Handlungsregulation in der komplexen Situation der frühen Phasen der Produktentwicklung zu unterstützen, um typischen Handlungsfehlern vorzubeugen. Eine besondere Rolle spielt hierbei der Umgang...
Chapter
Neben der Einleitung in Abschnitt A besteht die vorliegende Arbeit aus vier Abschnitten.
Chapter
Die in den vorherigen Kapiteln beschriebenen gewachsenen Anforderungen an die Produktentwicklung und die Notwendigkeit zum Unsicherheitsmanagement führen zu einem erhöhten Interesse speziell an den frühen Entwicklungsphasen, in denen das Produkt nur „in Köpfen oder auf Papier“ existiert und Änderungen mit relativ geringem zeitlichen und materiellen...
Chapter
Im vorangegangenen Kapitel wurde die grundlegende Architektur des HAUS dargestellt, dessen Kernstück die Erstellung und Anwendung von FCM-Modellen bildet. Die Wahl dieser Modellierungsmethode begründet sich aus der Fähigkeit von FCMs, qualitative Daten und Daten unterschiedlicher Dimension quantitativ auszuwerten. Das Modellierungsverfahren ist dam...
Chapter
Systemdenken, das Denken in Szenarien und die Kartierung von Wissen sind, wie im letzten Kapitel gezeigt, viel versprechende Konzepte zur Unterstützung der frühen Produktentstehungsphasen. Sie werden jedoch, wie der umfangreiche Überblick über aktuelle Front- End-Lösungen in Abschnitt C 1 (vgl. Seite 98ff.) bereits gezeigt hat, in keiner der herköm...
Chapter
In den nachfolgenden Abschnitten werden die einzelnen Module des HAUS auf Basis der Erkenntnisse vorangegangener Kapitel konkretisiert und im Gesamtzusammenhang dargestellt. Zur Illustration werden hierbei Daten verwendet, die bei der Begleitung der Frühphase einer Konzeptstudie („Laserreinigungsanlage für die Formteilformen“) in einem kleinen Tech...
Chapter
Im vorangegangenen Kapitel wurde dargestellt, dass turbulente Unternehmensumfelder zu Unsicherheit führen, die durch geeignete Strategien und Methoden in der Produktentstehung bewältigt werden muss. Das vorliegende Kapitel untersucht die Frage, welche Strategien hierfür geeignet sind.
Chapter
Mit der vorliegenden Arbeit ist ein Anfang gemacht, die frühen Phasen der Produktentwicklung methodisch zu unterstützen. Allerdings existiert das HAUS derzeit lediglich auf konzeptioneller Ebene. Dringender Forschungsbedarf ergibt sich damit für seine Implementierung, für die das bestehende Konzept durch Software, Handbücher und Schulungskonzepte z...
Chapter
Wie in der Einleitung ausgeführt, rücken die frühen Phasen der Produktentwicklung zunehmend in den Fokus von Forschem und Praktikern. Eine mögliche Erklärung hierfür ist die zunehmende und in der Literatur häufig postulierte Turbulenz von Unternehmensumfeldern, aus der hohe Unsicherheit erwächst (vgl. nachfolgender Abschnitt B 1.1). Diese Unsicherh...
Chapter
Ziel der vorliegenden Arbeit war die Konzeption eines Systems zur Handlungsunterstützung in den frühen Phasen der Produktentwicklung. Hierzu wurde in zweifacher Hinsicht Neuland betreten wurde: Die Arbeit setzte sich mit den frühen Produktentwicklungsphasen—dem „Fuzzy Front End“ - und damit mit einem Teil des Innovationsprozesses auseinander, der b...
Chapter
In den frühen Phasen der Produktentwicklung werden Produktideen erzeugt, ausgewählt und verfeinert, Produktkonzepte erarbeitet und bewertet und darauf aufbauend Entwicklungsprojekte definiert. Diese Aktivitäten erfordern Kreativität, erfolgen unter hoher Unsicherheit und vollziehen sich im Vergleich zu späteren Entwicklungsphasen in wenig strukturi...
Chapter
Im letzten Kapitel wurde gezeigt, dass die in Abschnitt B entwickelten Anforderungen der Produktentwicklung durch die derzeit existierenden Methoden und Instrumente für das FFE nur unzureichend erfüllt werden. Dies gilt auch für relativ neue Lösungen, die speziell für das Front-End entwickelt wurden, da sie lediglich Rahmenkonzepte für die Nutzung...
Article
Das Fuzzy Front End, d.h. die frühen Phasen der Produktentwicklung, ist von zentraler Bedeutung für den Produkterfolg. Durch herkömmliche Methoden und Verfahren des Innovationsmanagements wird es jedoch nur unzureichend unterstützt. Insbesondere fehlen Ansätze zur systematischen Berücksichtigung von Umfeldinformationen über Märkte und Technologien...
Conference Paper
Many companies lack efficient management of the early phases of new product development (NPD) - the so-called fuzzy front end (FFE). Rather than on structured methods, decision makers rely on "gut-feel" or "guessing". In an attempt to "educate the guess" this paper discusses the activities and challenges of the FFE, as well as strategies to manage...
Article
The early phases of product development - the so-called fuzzy front end - are ill supported by traditional tools and methods for new product development (NPD). Based on a thorough investigation of the activities, challenges and strategies associated with these NPD stages, the paper identifies requirements for front-end management. It then discusses...