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Antonello Provenzale

Antonello Provenzale
Institute of Geosciences and Earth Resources IGG · Italian National Research Council

Research Doctorate (PhD) in Physics

About

367
Publications
52,422
Reads
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11,236
Citations
Citations since 2016
99 Research Items
5232 Citations
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Introduction
Antonello Provenzale currently works at the Institute of Geosciences and Earth Resources, IGG, Italian National Research Council. Antonello does research in Earth System Dynamics, Fluid Dynamics, Climate, Geosphere-Biosphere interaction, Ecosystem Modelling and Planetary Sciences. Their current project is 'ECOPOTENTIAL'.
Additional affiliations
February 2015 - present
Institute of Geosciences and Earth Resources
Position
  • Research Director

Publications

Publications (367)
Article
Full-text available
The detection of cause-effect relationships from the analysis of paleoclimatic records is a crucial step to disentangle the main mechanisms at work in the climate system. Here, we show that the approach based on the generalized Fluctuation–Dissipation Relation, complemented by the analysis of the Transfer Entropy, allows the causal links to be iden...
Preprint
Full-text available
Landscapes nearby glaciers are disproportionally affected by climate change, still we lack the information on microclimate variation that is required to understand impacts of climate change on these ecosystems and their biodiversity. Here we use near-subsurface soil temperatures in 175 stations from polar, equatorial and alpine glacier forelands to...
Chapter
A differenza di gran parte dei ghiacciai nel Massicio del Gran Paradiso, e sulle Alpi in generale, il Ghiacciaio di Nel Orientale, nel gruppo delle Levanne, ha subito un ritiro molto ridotto (280 m) a partire dalla fine della Piccola Età Glaciale, grazie alla presenza di uno spesso strato di detriti sulla sua superficie che lo protegge dall’irraggi...
Chapter
The continual damage to ecosystem integrity, functions, and processes caused by increasing anthropogenic pressures on a global scale are threatening the supply of ecosystem services fundamental for human well‐being. Marine and coastal protected areas (MCPAs) are an essential bastion of ecosystem services. Their special management and conservation s...
Article
Rocky planets with temperate conditions provide the best chance for discovering habitable worlds and life outside the Solar System. In the last decades, new instrumental facilities and large observational campaigns have been driven by the quest for habitable worlds. Climate models aimed at studying the habitability of rocky planets are essential to...
Presentation
Full-text available
The environment affects population dynamics through multiple drivers. We analyze such influence in a three-species food chain and in host-parasitoid dynamics, making use of Hastings-Powell model and of Beddington’s two-dimensional model, respectively. Perturbing different parameters in such systems, we generate dramatic modifications in the dynamic...
Preprint
Full-text available
Rocky planets with temperate conditions provide the best chance for discovering habitable worlds and life outside the Solar System. In the last decades, new instrumental facilities and large observational campaigns have been driven by the quest for habitable worlds. Climate models aimed at studying the habitability of rocky planets are essential to...
Article
Full-text available
We analyse the expected characteristics of drought events in northern Italy for baseline (1971–2000), near (2021–2050), and far (2071–2100) future conditions, estimating the drought spatial extent and duration, the percentage of affected area, and the frequency of drought episodes. To this end, daily ensembles of precipitation and temperature recor...
Article
Full-text available
Environmental stochasticity affects population dynamics in a variety of ways, including the possibility of drastic modifications in the stability properties of the ecosystem. In this work, we investigate a case of coupled host-parasitoid dynamics adopting Beddington’s conceptual two-dimensional map. We stochastically perturb some of the parameters...
Article
Full-text available
For more than five decades, research has been conducted at Ny-Ålesund, in Svalbard, Norway, to understand the structure and functioning of High-Arctic ecosystems and the profound impacts on them of environmental change. Terrestrial, freshwater, glacial and marine ecosystems are accessible year-round from Ny-Ålesund, providing unique opportunities f...
Article
Full-text available
Assessing the environmental status of Protected Areas (PAs) is a challenging issue. To indicate that status, the identification of a common set of variables that are scientifically sound, and easy to assess and monitor by the PA practitioners, is particularly important. In this study, a set of 27 Essential Variables (EVs) for PA management was sele...
Article
Full-text available
The spatial and temporal variability of air temperature , precipitation, actual evapotranspiration (AET) and their related water balance components, as well as their responses to anthropogenic climate change, provide fundamental information for an effective management of water resources and for a proactive involvement of users and stakeholders, in...
Article
Full-text available
High-Arctic ecosystems are strongly affected by climate change, and it is still unclear whether they will become a carbon source or sink in the next few decades. In turn, such knowledge gaps on the drivers and the processes controlling CO2 fluxes and storage make future projections of the Arctic carbon budget a challenging goal. During summer 2019,...
Chapter
O período entre 2018 e 2022 mostrou-nos que o problema dos incêndios à escala global não está a diminuir, antes pelo contrário. Parece que as consequências das alterações climáticas já estão a afectar a ocorrência de incêndios florestais em várias partes do Mundo, de uma forma que só esperaríamos que acontecesse vários anos mais tarde. Em muitos pa...
Article
Full-text available
Our work aims to assess how butterfly communities in the Italian Maritime Alps changed over the past 40 years, in parallel with altitudinal shifts occurring in plant communities. In 2019, we sampled butterflies at 7 grassland sites, between 1300–1900 m, previously investigated in 2009 and 1978, by semi-quantitative linear transects. Fine-scale temp...
Article
Full-text available
Forest fires are drivers of spatial patterns and temporal dynamics of vegetation and biodiversity. On the Canary Islands, large areas of pine forest exist, dominated by the endemic Canary Island pine, Pinus canariensis C. Sm. These mostly natural forests experience wildfires frequently. P. canariensis is well-adapted to such impacts and has the abi...
Preprint
Full-text available
We analyse the expected characteristics of drought events in northern Italy for baseline (1971–2000), near (2021–2050) and far (2071–2100) future conditions, estimating the drought spatial extent and duration, the percentage of affected area and the frequency of drought episodes. To this end, daily ensembles of precipitation and temperature records...
Poster
Full-text available
Satellite images provide valuable long-term and spatially extended datasets in the Arctic, where acquiring vast and remote data is particularly challenging. These precious data allow assessing the tundra soil-vegetation dynamics and capacity to act as a carbon sink, as well as the spatiotemporal changes in vegetation biomass. Specifically, vegetati...
Article
Full-text available
Long-term studies are essential to understand the impacts of global changes on the multiple facets of biological diversity. Here, we use distribution data for over 600 species of arthropods collected over 150 years from locations across Italy and test how multiple environmental stressors (climate, land use and human population density) influenced a...
Article
Full-text available
The environment affects population dynamics through multiple drivers. Here we explore a simplified version of such influence in a three-species food chain, making use of the Hastings–Powell model. This represents an idealized resource–consumer–predator chain, or equivalently, a vegetation–host–parasitoid system. By stochastically perturbing the val...
Presentation
Full-text available
The environment affects population dynamics through multiple drivers. We analyize such influence in host-parasitoid dynamics and in a three-species food chain, making use of Beddington's two-dimensional model and of Hastings-Powell model, respectively. Perturbing different parameters in such systems, we generate dramatic modifications in the dynami...
Article
Clustering of plumes in turbulent Rayleigh-Bénard convection has been numerically observed in low-Prandtl-number fluids. In this framework, turbulent plumes undergo a phase-separation process leading to large-scale clusters and circulations, sometimes called plume superstructures and reminiscent of solar granulation and supergranulation. On the oth...
Conference Paper
Full-text available
Driven by the increasing awareness that innovative approaches to solving the problems at hand in our complex human-environment interactions require closer collaboration among scientific disciplines and communities, inter-and transdisciplinary integration is continuously gaining importance in R&D agendas and Research Infrastructure (RI) development...
Preprint
Full-text available
The spatial and temporal variability of temperature, precipitation, actual evapotranspiration and of the related water balance components, as well as their responses to anthropogenic climate change, provide fundamental information for an effective management of water resources. In this study we evaluated the past, present and future quantity of gro...
Article
Forest fires are drivers of spatial patterns and temporal dynamics of vegetation and biodiversity. On the Canary Islands, large areas of pine forest exist, dominated by the endemic Canary Island pine, Pinus canariensis C. Sm. These mostly natural forests experience wildfires frequently. P. canariensis is well-adapted to such impacts and has the abi...
Article
Full-text available
Snow models are usually evaluated at sites providing high-quality meteorological data, so that the uncertainty in the meteorological input data can be neglected when assessing model performances. However, high-quality input data are rarely available in mountain areas and, in practical applications, the meteorological forcing used to drive snow mode...
Article
Full-text available
Mountain biodiversity is associated with rare and fragile biota that are highly sensitive to climate change. To estimate the vulnerability of biodiversity to temperature rise, long-term field data are crucial. Species distribution models are an essential tool, in particular for invertebrates, for which detailed information on spatial and temporal d...
Article
Full-text available
In high mountains, the effects of climate change are manifesting most rapidly. This is especially critical for the high-altitude carbon cycle, for which new feedbacks could be triggered. However, mountain carbon dynamics is only partially known. In particular, models of the processes driving carbon fluxes in high-altitude grasslands and Alpine tund...
Preprint
Full-text available
In high mountains, the effects of climate change are manifesting most rapidly. This is especially critical for the high-altitude carbon cycle, for which new feedbacks could be triggered. However, mountain carbon dynamics is only partially known. In particular, models of the processes driving carbon fluxes in high-altitude grasslands and Alpine tund...
Preprint
Full-text available
Abstract. We developed a new fluid-dynamical numerical model, which we call convectiveFoam , designed to simulate fluids with very large Prandtl number. First we implemented the high-Pr case, in which advection still acts explicitly, and then the Pr → ∞ version, where the momentum equation becomes diagnostic (that is, without time derivatives) and...
Chapter
A challenging task in the management of Protected Areas is to control the spread of invasive species, either floristic or faunistic, and the preservation of indigenous endangered species, typically competing for the use of resources in a fragmented habitat. In this paper, we present some mathematical tools that have been recently applied to contain...
Article
Before about 500 million years ago, most probably our planet experienced temporary snowball conditions, with continental and sea ices covering a large fraction of its surface. This points to a potential bistability of Earth’s climate that can have at least two different (statistical) equilibrium states for the same external forcing (i.e. solar radi...
Book
This book presents important recent applied mathematics research on environmental problems and impacts due to climate change. Although there are inherent difficulties in addressing phenomena that are part of such a complex system, exploration of the subject using mathematical modelling is especially suited to tackling poorly understood issues in th...
Preprint
Before about 500 million years ago, most probably our planet experienced temporary snowball conditions, with continental and sea ices covering a large fraction of its surface. This points to a potential bistability of Earth's climate, that can have at least two different (statistical) equilibrium states for the same external forcing (i.e., solar ra...
Preprint
Full-text available
Abstract. Snow models are usually evaluated at sites providing high-quality meteorological data, so that the uncertainty in the meteorological input data can be neglected when assessing the model performances. However, high-quality input data are rarely available in mountain areas and, in practical applications, the meteorological forcing to drive...
Article
Full-text available
Water and energy are recognized as the most influential climatic vegetation growth-limiting factors. These factors are usually measured from ground meteorological stations. However, since both vary in space, time, and scale, they can be assessed by satellite-derived biophysical indicators. Energy, represented by land surface temperature (LST), is a...
Article
Full-text available
Understanding and counteracting biodiversity losses requires quantitative knowledge on species distribution and abundance across space and time, as well as integrated and interoperable information on climate conditions and climatic changes. In this paper we developed a new biodiversity-climate database for Italy, ClimCKmap, based on the critical an...
Poster
Many foothill zones in Italy contain aquifer systems of strategic interest for water supplying, especially for drinking purposes. The hydrogeological features in these environments generally promote the infiltration of both local rainfall and seepage from stream water originating in mountain catchments. On the other hand, because of their linkage w...
Book
Full-text available
ECOPOTENTIAL is a large European-funded H2020 project that focuses its activities on a targeted set of internationally recognised Protected Areas, blending Earth Observations from remote sensing and field measurements, data analysis and modelling of current and future ecosystem conditions and services. ECOPOTENTIAL considers cross-scale geosphere-b...
Article
Full-text available
Quantitative estimate of observational uncertainty is an essential ingredient to correctly interpret changes in climatic and environmental variables such as wildfires. In this work we compare four state-of-the-art satellite fire products with the gridded, ground-based EFFIS dataset for Mediterranean Europe and analyse their statistical differences....
Article
We numerically explore the dynamics of an incompressible fluid heated from below, bounded by free-slip horizontal plates and periodic lateral boundary conditions, subject to rapid rotation about a distant axis that is tilted with respect to the gravity vector. The angle ϕ between the rotation axis and the horizontal plane measures the tilting of th...
Article
Full-text available
Mountain ecosystems are particularly sensitive to changes in climate and land cover, but at the same time, they can offer important refuges for species on the opposite of the more altered lowlands. To explore the potential role of mountain ecosystems in butterfly conservation and to assess the vulnerability of the alpine species, we analyzed the sh...
Article
Full-text available
To account for progress towards conservation targets, monitoring systems should capture not only information on biodiversity but also knowledge on the dynamics of ecological processes and the related effects on human well-being. Protected areas represent complex social-ecological systems with strong human-nature interactions. They are able to provi...
Conference Paper
Full-text available
Terrestrial and marine ecosystems provide essential goods and services to human societies. In the last decades anthropogenic pressure has caused serious threat to ecosystem integrity, functions and processes. Knowledge-based conservation, management and restoration policies are thus urgently needed, in order to improve ecosystem benefits in face of...
Article
Full-text available
The observed trend towards warmer and drier conditions in southern Europe is projected to continue in the next decades, possibly leading to increased risk of large fires. However, an assessment of climate change impacts on fires at and above the 1.5 °C Paris target is still missing. Here, we estimate future summer burned area in Mediterranean Europ...
Poster
The spatial and temporal variability of temperature and of the main components of the water balance are keys issues for the management of water resources. The drinking water is particularly important in areas intensively built like the town of Turin, Italy. A research was recently funded by SMAT (Società Metropolitana Acque Torino) supplying drinki...
Presentation
This work focus on the aquifer system extending in the foothill plain located in the Piedmont region (NW Italy), between the Western Alps and the Torino Hill. This area is of scientific interest, since it represents the hydrogeological “transition zone” between the Western Po Plain and the southern Piedmont Plain aquifer systems. Furthermore, the i...
Article
Full-text available
Societal exposure to large fires has been increasing in recent years. Estimating the expected fire activity a few months in advance would allow reducing environmental and socio-economic impacts through short-term adaptation and response to climate variability and change. However, seasonal prediction of climate-driven fires is still in its infancy....
Conference Paper
Full-text available
The sedimentary succession deposited in Fucino palaeo-lake potentially records the environmental history of the Central Mediterranean Region continuously since the early Pleistocene and up to recent historical times. Fucino palaeo-lake sediments are interbedded with numerous volcanic ash layers which allow the reconstruction a robust and independen...