Anton GerunovSofia University "St. Kliment Ohridski" · Faculty of Economics and Business Administration
Anton Gerunov
Doctor of Science
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47
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Introduction
Additional affiliations
Education
September 2017 - June 2019
March 2012 - March 2015
October 2009 - July 2011
Publications
Publications (47)
This paper provides an overview of Bulgaria’s policy on open data by using the framework of a novel Open Data stage model, showing that the country is still at the first stage of opening data. We also present a detailed overview of the data landscape of the public sector in the country and outline the first milestones and successes in its efforts t...
The research paper leverages a big dataset from the field of social sciences - the combined World Values Survey 1981-2014 data - to investigate what determines an individual's employment status. We propose an approach to model this by first reducing data dimensionality at a small informational loss and then fitting a number of alternative machine-l...
Последните две десетилетия изследванията за взаимодействията между финансовия сектор и икономическия растеж извеждат положителна и устойчива връзка между двете, като финансовата система подкрепя реалната икономика чрез разпределяне на капитали, контрол на риска и положителни иновации. От друга страна следва да се вземе под внимание и потенциалния е...
With the growing ability of organizations in the public and private sector to collect large volumes of real-time data, the mounting pile of information presents specific challenges for storage, processing, and analysis. Many organizations do need data analysis for the purposes of planning and logistics. Likewise, governments and regulators will nee...
Notes on Risk Management is a handbook which aims to outline key theoretical insights about quantitative risk management and demonstrate their applications in a modern software environment. For this purpose, we use the R language for statistical computing which allows us to illustrate theory with abundant empirical examples, based on real-life data...
Objectives: Perceptions towards euro adoption in the general public are very important for the successful introduction of the common currency into a given economy. Young consumers tend to have lower interest and political participation rates, but their acceptance of a new currency is crucial. This paper investigates a sample of Bulgarian students i...
This handbook is a hands-on introduction to business analytics and visualization using the R programming language. It covers topic ranging from data ingestion and processing, through visualization, and into statistical modeling and inference.
The handbook may be of interest to both university-level students as well as practitioners in the fields o...
The digital transformation of modern economies continues apace. The digital economy engenders many new interactions, intensifies information flows, and presents one with unique digital assets. All of these serve to greatly increase the risk exposure of organizations and individuals by both modifying probability of occurrence, and amplifying impact....
The existence of risk in economic activity is hardly breaking news. What is surprising is its overwhelming role in business and social decisions and, sometimes, the incredible propensity of individuals and organizations to ignore this fact. Against the backdrop of increasing economic sophistication and ever-expanding risk exposure, particularly to...
The quest for formally modeling risk preferences has come a long way from crudely formulated utility functions to more sophisticated versions that are based on extensive research. The perfect way to model preferences has not yet been reached and each of the many proposals has some shortcomings. However, the practical imperative to understand how hu...
Risk and uncertainty are fundamental aspects of economic and social activity. The challenge of making reasonable, if not strictly rational, forward-looking decisions under uncertainty is aptly summarized by Niels Bohr who stated that “prediction is very difficult, especially about the future”. And yet, predict we must in order to act. This practica...
Managing rare risks is the Holy Grail of risk management. Those are extremely unlikely events with potentially catastrophic impact. This makes their prediction very difficult, yet supremely important as they often mean the difference between life and death of individuals, companies, and even whole systems. The chapter reviews traditional methods of...
Network formation is basic to human interactions. A complex socio-economic system may often be represented as a network with actors serving as the network nodes, and all their interactions being the connecting edges. Our economies and cities are no less structured as a network than our personal relations and critical infrastructures . How different...
Forecasting economic choice is hard because today we still do not know enough about human motivation. A fundamental problem is the lack of knowledge about how the neural networks in the brain give rise to thinking and decision making. One way to address the issue has been to develop simplified economic experiments, in which participants need skills...
The issues of privacy and data protection are gaining in prominence, especially against the backdrop of changing citizen preferences and the enforcement of strict legislations such as the EU’s General Data Protection Regulation. Pursuant both article 25 of the Regulation and following good practice, public sector institutions need to apply the prin...
This is data spanning a 15-year period beginning 1st January 2006 and ending 31st December 2020 that tracks the daily returns from 24 European stock markets. It is based on publicly available data on market indices and can be used to study their dynamics for problems of asset allocation and risk management.
Findings from laboratory studies with human participants often carry over to the real world. Here we analyze data from an economic experiment and show that introducing relevant expert information makes a lab market more chaotic, while connecting people via a virtual social network reduces chaos and increases self-organization. The latter may be of...
This article investigates the application of advanced machine learning algorithms for forecasting housing prices. To this end we leverage a dataset of 414 observations of housing deals in Taipei and model it with both traditional econometric and novel machine learning algorithms. An exhaustive search among 107 alternative methods is conducted and t...
This article investigates the performance of 136 different classification algorithms for economic problems of binary choice. They are applied to model five different choice situations – consumer acceptance during a direct marketing campaign, predicting default on credit card debt, credit scoring, forecasting firm insolvency, and modeling online con...
The article shows how some novel machine learning algorithms can be applied to economic problems of discrete binary choice. An examination is made of three typical business tasks – classifying overdraft applications, credit risk management, and marketing segmentation. Both traditional econometric methods (logistic regression and linear discriminant...
Въпросите на информационната сигурност и защитата на личните данни добиват все по-критични измерения за съвременния бизнес и обществен живот. Това се отразява в очакванията и отношенията между потребители и граждани, държавни регулатори и юридически лица, събиращи и управляващи големи обеми от данни. Едва в началото сме на процес, който ще измени и...
In light of increasing public pressure and strict regulation, issues of information security and privacy gain prominence in the e-government domain. A promising approach to ensure data protection is to embrace the Privacy by Design principles and practices in the public sector but this remains a major challenge for practitioners. This article lever...
Information technology made our lives unthinkable without using virtual social networks on daily basis. These networks not only gave us new opportunities to satisfy our social needs, but increased immensely the efficiency of various activities we carry out in collaboration with others. In this paper we present results from an economic experiment, c...
Статията разглежда влиянието на различни демографски, поведенчески и ситуационни фактори върху потребителски избор в условия на крайна несигурност. Използвани са данни от икономико-психологически експеримент със 127 участници, при който те са изложени на различни стимули докато взимат решения. Данните са изследвани с помощта на модел на рандомизира...
We present an overview of the dynamics of fiscal aggregates in Bulgaria in the period 1998 to 2014. The paper investigates the cyclical dynamics of budget revenue and expenditure and their major components. Using time series of deflated statistical data we calculate the elasticity of individual revenue and expenditure components to GDP growth – bot...
Статията представя икономически експеримент, който изследва механизма на формиране на икономическите очаквания при взимане на реални стопански решения. Резултатите от симулационната игра, при която участниците избират доставчик на определена стока, се използват, за да се изведат иконометрично факторите, влияещи върху поведението им. Основните извод...
This paper investigates the effects of budget transparency on fiscal performance. It fits a panel regression model on data from the Open Budget Index through its five rounds (OBI 2006-OBI 2015) and investigates the effect of openness on budget balance, primary balance and government debt across a sample of 57 countries. We seek to validate the prop...
Настоящата статия изследва по какъв начин пазарните настроения влияят върху икономическата динамика, като изграждаме и симулираме малък динамичен стохастичен поведенчески макроикономически модел. Моделирайки икономическите субекти като ограничено рационални, но оптимизиращи агенти, опитващи се да вземат решение в една неопределена среда води до кор...
This paper provides an overview of Bulgaria's policy on open data by using the framework of a novel Open Data stage model. We also present a detailed overview the data landscape of the public sector in the country and outline the first milestones in its efforts to publish some of that data for reuse. The paper outlines the limited knowledge about t...
Ефектът на дефицитното финансиране върху потреблението е основен въпрос на фискалната политика. Емпирично тестваме доколко дефицита и дълговата позиция на правителствата на страните от Централна и Източна Европа влияят върху потреблението на домакинствата за периода 1995-2014 г. При широк набор от алтернативни спецификации откриваме малки отрицател...
The main hypotheses for the formation of inflation expectations of economic agents and key results of their research are discussed. Survey data on the inflation expectations of the citizens of the EU-27 member states for the period 01.1998-05.2013 are used to test the extent to which these theoretical hypotheses correspond to the dynamics actually...
Разгледани са основните хипотези за формиране на инфлационните очаквания на икономическите агенти и ключови резултати от тяхното изследване. Използвани са анкетни данни за инфлационните очаквания на гражданите на страните-членки от ЕС-27 за периода 01.1998-05.2013 г., с които се тества доколко тези теоретични хипотези отговарят на реално наблюдаван...
A novel statistical approach is used to discern main types of public finance management (or fiscal archetypes) among countries in the European Union. Data, spanning 2002 to 2014, reveals four main archetypes across the dimensions of fiscal policy. Two of them are fiscally sustainable – one comprises big but responsible spenders, and the other – lea...
The research paper leverages a big dataset from the field of social sciences – the combined World Values Survey 1981-2014 data – to investigate what determines an individual's employment status. We propose an approach to model this by first reducing data dimensionality at a small informa-tional loss and then fitting a Random Forest algorithm. Varia...
Настоящата разработка изследва доколко поведението на индексите на фондовите борси в дванадесет ключови страни-членки от ЕС е в съответствие с Хипотезата за ефективните пазари (ХЕП) и дали определена публична информация може да бъде използвана за прогнозиране на тяхната динамика. За целта изчисляваме модели от типа GARCH(1,3), използвайки времеви р...
505, бул. Цариградско шосе 125, София 1113, Е-мейл: gerunov@uni-sofia.bg Абстракт: Настоящата разработка прави критичен обзор на основните хипотези за формирането на икономически очаквания. Разглеждат се статичните и адаптивни очаквания, рационалните, очакванията, формирани чрез учене и базираните на хетерогенна информация и хетерогенни агенти. Оче...
The paper investigates the link between indicators of economic openness and real growth of output. It is based on the theoretical expectation that openness should affect total factor productivity mainly through technological spillovers and market discipline. This is indeed observable in the data for 213 countries spanning 10 years for flows of good...
Research on the finance-growth nexus over the last two decades has established a positive and stable link between financial development and economic growth, whereby the financial system supports the real economy through allocation of capital, risk management and productive innovation. On the other hand we should also heed the possibility of decreas...
Using survey data on inflation expectations for EU-27 over the period 1998-2013, this paper tests whether the time series conform to the Rational Expectations approach or the Heterogeneous Expectations one, based on behavioral characteristics of the agents. Econometric tests find more support for the latter view. Modeling expectations as heterogene...
Статията изследва динамиката на икономическите очаквания, формирани в страните от Европейския съюз за периода от 01.1998 до 05.2013 като проследява показателите на потребителско доверие, балансовите показатели от наблюденията на бизнеса и формираните инфлационни очаквания. Налага се изводът, че очакванията не клонят към определено средно за Съюза н...