Anton Gerunov

Anton Gerunov
Sofia University "St. Kliment Ohridski" · Faculty of Economics and Business Administration

Doctor of Science

About

32
Publications
26,529
Reads
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39
Citations
Additional affiliations
February 2011 - present
Sofia University "St. Kliment Ohridski"
Position
  • Professor (Associate)
Description
  • Seminars in Economics, Finance, and Risk Management covering traditional topics and their practical applications.
February 2008 - February 2009
Jacobs University
Position
  • Research Assistant
Description
  • Teaching and research assistance for courses in Statistics and Econometrics.
Education
September 2017 - June 2019
Stockholm University
Field of study
  • Computer and System Sciences
March 2012 - March 2015
October 2009 - July 2011
Sofia University "St. Kliment Ohridski"
Field of study
  • Economics: Macroeconomics and Econometrics

Publications

Publications (32)
Article
This paper provides an overview of Bulgaria’s policy on open data by using the framework of a novel Open Data stage model, showing that the country is still at the first stage of opening data. We also present a detailed overview of the data landscape of the public sector in the country and outline the first milestones and successes in its efforts t...
Article
The research paper leverages a big dataset from the field of social sciences - the combined World Values Survey 1981-2014 data - to investigate what determines an individual's employment status. We propose an approach to model this by first reducing data dimensionality at a small informational loss and then fitting a number of alternative machine-l...
Article
Full-text available
Последните две десетилетия изследванията за взаимодействията между финансовия сектор и икономическия растеж извеждат положителна и устойчива връзка между двете, като финансовата система подкрепя реалната икономика чрез разпределяне на капитали, контрол на риска и положителни иновации. От друга страна следва да се вземе под внимание и потенциалния е...
Article
Full-text available
With the growing ability of organizations in the public and private sector to collect large volumes of real-time data, the mounting pile of information presents specific challenges for storage, processing, and analysis. Many organizations do need data analysis for the purposes of planning and logistics. Likewise, governments and regulators will nee...
Book
Full-text available
Notes on Risk Management is a handbook which aims to outline key theoretical insights about quantitative risk management and demonstrate their applications in a modern software environment. For this purpose, we use the R language for statistical computing which allows us to illustrate theory with abundant empirical examples, based on real-life data...
Article
Full-text available
Forecasting economic choice is hard because today we still do not know enough about human motivation. A fundamental problem is the lack of knowledge about how the neural networks in the brain give rise to thinking and decision making. One way to address the issue has been to develop simplified economic experiments, in which participants need skills...
Article
The issues of privacy and data protection are gaining in prominence, especially against the backdrop of changing citizen preferences and the enforcement of strict legislations such as the EU’s General Data Protection Regulation. Pursuant both article 25 of the Regulation and following good practice, public sector institutions need to apply the prin...
Data
This is data spanning a 15-year period beginning 1st January 2006 and ending 31st December 2020 that tracks the daily returns from 24 European stock markets. It is based on publicly available data on market indices and can be used to study their dynamics for problems of asset allocation and risk management.
Conference Paper
Full-text available
Findings from laboratory studies with human participants often carry over to the real world. Here we analyze data from an economic experiment and show that introducing relevant expert information makes a lab market more chaotic, while connecting people via a virtual social network reduces chaos and increases self-organization. The latter may be of...
Article
This article investigates the performance of 136 different classification algorithms for economic problems of binary choice. They are applied to model five different choice situations – consumer acceptance during a direct marketing campaign, predicting default on credit card debt, credit scoring, forecasting firm insolvency, and modeling online con...
Book
Full-text available
Въпросите на информационната сигурност и защитата на личните данни добиват все по-критични измерения за съвременния бизнес и обществен живот. Това се отразява в очакванията и отношенията между потребители и граждани, държавни регулатори и юридически лица, събиращи и управляващи големи обеми от данни. Едва в началото сме на процес, който ще измени и...
Article
In light of increasing public pressure and strict regulation, issues of information security and privacy gain prominence in the e-government domain. A promising approach to ensure data protection is to embrace the Privacy by Design principles and practices in the public sector but this remains a major challenge for practitioners. This article lever...
Conference Paper
Full-text available
Information technology made our lives unthinkable without using virtual social networks on daily basis. These networks not only gave us new opportunities to satisfy our social needs, but increased immensely the efficiency of various activities we carry out in collaboration with others. In this paper we present results from an economic experiment, c...
Article
Full-text available
Статията разглежда влиянието на различни демографски, поведенчески и ситуационни фактори върху потребителски избор в условия на крайна несигурност. Използвани са данни от икономико-психологически експеримент със 127 участници, при който те са изложени на различни стимули докато взимат решения. Данните са изследвани с помощта на модел на рандомизира...
Article
Full-text available
Статията представя икономически експеримент, който изследва механизма на формиране на икономическите очаквания при взимане на реални стопански решения. Резултатите от симулационната игра, при която участниците избират доставчик на определена стока, се използват, за да се изведат иконометрично факторите, влияещи върху поведението им. Основните извод...
Article
Full-text available
This paper investigates the effects of budget transparency on fiscal performance. It fits a panel regression model on data from the Open Budget Index through its five rounds (OBI 2006-OBI 2015) and investigates the effect of openness on budget balance, primary balance and government debt across a sample of 57 countries. We seek to validate the prop...
Conference Paper
Full-text available
Настоящата статия изследва по какъв начин пазарните настроения влияят върху икономическата динамика, като изграждаме и симулираме малък динамичен стохастичен поведенчески макроикономически модел. Моделирайки икономическите субекти като ограничено рационални, но оптимизиращи агенти, опитващи се да вземат решение в една неопределена среда води до кор...
Conference Paper
Full-text available
This paper provides an overview of Bulgaria's policy on open data by using the framework of a novel Open Data stage model. We also present a detailed overview the data landscape of the public sector in the country and outline the first milestones in its efforts to publish some of that data for reuse. The paper outlines the limited knowledge about t...
Article
Full-text available
Ефектът на дефицитното финансиране върху потреблението е основен въпрос на фискалната политика. Емпирично тестваме доколко дефицита и дълговата позиция на правителствата на страните от Централна и Източна Европа влияят върху потреблението на домакинствата за периода 1995-2014 г. При широк набор от алтернативни спецификации откриваме малки отрицател...
Article
Full-text available
Разгледани са основните хипотези за формиране на инфлационните очаквания на икономическите агенти и ключови резултати от тяхното изследване. Използвани са анкетни данни за инфлационните очаквания на гражданите на страните-членки от ЕС-27 за периода 01.1998-05.2013 г., с които се тества доколко тези теоретични хипотези отговарят на реално наблюдаван...
Article
Full-text available
A novel statistical approach is used to discern main types of public finance management (or fiscal archetypes) among countries in the European Union. Data, spanning 2002 to 2014, reveals four main archetypes across the dimensions of fiscal policy. Two of them are fiscally sustainable – one comprises big but responsible spenders, and the other – lea...
Conference Paper
Full-text available
The research paper leverages a big dataset from the field of social sciences – the combined World Values Survey 1981-2014 data – to investigate what determines an individual's employment status. We propose an approach to model this by first reducing data dimensionality at a small informa-tional loss and then fitting a Random Forest algorithm. Varia...
Article
Full-text available
Настоящата разработка изследва доколко поведението на индексите на фондовите борси в дванадесет ключови страни-членки от ЕС е в съответствие с Хипотезата за ефективните пазари (ХЕП) и дали определена публична информация може да бъде използвана за прогнозиране на тяхната динамика. За целта изчисляваме модели от типа GARCH(1,3), използвайки времеви р...
Chapter
Full-text available
505, бул. Цариградско шосе 125, София 1113, Е-мейл: gerunov@uni-sofia.bg Абстракт: Настоящата разработка прави критичен обзор на основните хипотези за формирането на икономически очаквания. Разглеждат се статичните и адаптивни очаквания, рационалните, очакванията, формирани чрез учене и базираните на хетерогенна информация и хетерогенни агенти. Оче...
Article
Full-text available
The paper investigates the link between indicators of economic openness and real growth of output. It is based on the theoretical expectation that openness should affect total factor productivity mainly through technological spillovers and market discipline. This is indeed observable in the data for 213 countries spanning 10 years for flows of good...
Article
Research on the finance-growth nexus over the last two decades has established a positive and stable link between financial development and economic growth, whereby the financial system supports the real economy through allocation of capital, risk management and productive innovation. On the other hand we should also heed the possibility of decreas...
Conference Paper
Full-text available
Using survey data on inflation expectations for EU-27 over the period 1998-2013, this paper tests whether the time series conform to the Rational Expectations approach or the Heterogeneous Expectations one, based on behavioral characteristics of the agents. Econometric tests find more support for the latter view. Modeling expectations as heterogene...
Article
Full-text available
Статията изследва динамиката на икономическите очаквания, формирани в страните от Европейския съюз за периода от 01.1998 до 05.2013 като проследява показателите на потребителско доверие, балансовите показатели от наблюденията на бизнеса и формираните инфлационни очаквания. Налага се изводът, че очакванията не клонят към определено средно за Съюза н...

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Projects

Projects (3)
Archived project
This project aims to gather better understanding of how agents form expectations and formulate decisions of economic interest. Issues of modeling irrationality, tracking the effects of irrationality and uncertainty, predicting decisions and managing risk are central to this endeavor.
Archived project
The project aims to investigate how novel machine learning and advanced statistical algorithms can be usefully applied to substantive economic problems. It is a venture towards a largely data-driven approach to economic modeling and knowledge that goes beyond traditional econometrics. As a corollary, the data quality and availability for this program is investigated, including open data.