Antoine Guisan

Antoine Guisan
University of Lausanne | UNIL

PhD

About

480
Publications
219,490
Reads
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66,431
Citations
Introduction
I am Full professor at the University of Lausanne, Switzerland, and specialized in niche, habitat suitability and distribution modeling, mainly at the level of species, but also of biodiversity, communities, ecosystems and their services. My projects focus either on fundamental aspects driving the distribution of species and their assemblages, or on more applied aspects, such as climate and landuse changes, biological invasions, and rare and threatened species management. Note that I am not frequently visiting ResearchGate, so don't expect rapid answer if writing me on that media. I might actually often not succeed answering all RG messages, my apologies in advance.
Additional affiliations
October 2001 - present
University of Lausanne
Position
  • Professor (Associate)

Publications

Publications (480)
Article
Full-text available
Species Distribution Models (SDMs) are essential tools for predicting climate change impact on species' distributions and are commonly employed as an informative tool on which to base management and conservation actions. Focusing only on a part of the entire distribution of a species for fitting SDMs is a common approach. Yet, geographically restri...
Article
Full-text available
The Amazon floodplains represent important surfaces of highly valuable ecosystems, yet they remain neglected from protected areas. While the efficiency of the protected area network of the Amazon basin may be jeopardised by climate change, floodplains are exposed to important consequences of climate change but are omitted from species distribution...
Presentation
Full-text available
Regos A, Gonçalves J, Arenas-Castro S, Alcaraz-Segura D, Guisan A & Honrado JP (2022). Incorporating remotely sensed ecosystem functioning into species distribution models: limitations, advantages and future avenues. IALE 2022 European Landscape Ecology Congress Jul 11 – 15, 2022. Warsaw, Poland (Online).
Article
Mountains are hotspots of biodiversity and ecosystem services, but they are warming about twice as fast as the global average. Climate change may reduce alpine snow cover and increase vegetation productivity, as in the Arctic. Here, we demonstrate that 77% of the European Alps above the tree line experienced greening (productivity gain) and <1% bro...
Article
Understanding the drivers of infection risk helps us to detect the most at-risk species in a community and identify species whose intrinsic characteristics could act as potential reservoirs of pathogens. This knowledge is crucial if we are to predict the emergence and evolution of infectious diseases. To date, most studies have only focused on infe...
Preprint
Full-text available
Context Human-induced changes in landscape structure are among the main causes of biodiversity loss. However, despite their important contribution to biodiversity and ecosystem functioning, microbes – and particularly protists – remain spatially understudied. Furthermore, soil microbiota are most often related to the local soil properties, whereas...
Article
Full-text available
Although widely used in ecology, comparative analyses of diversity and niche properties are still lacking for microorganisms, especially focusing on niche variations. Quantifying the niches of microbial taxa is necessary to then forecast how taxa and the communities they compose might respond to environmental changes. In this study, we first identi...
Preprint
Different mammalian species host distinct gut microbes but the processes shaping this specificity are not well understood. One model proposes that barriers to microbial transmission promote specificity by limiting dispersal between hosts and predicts that specificity levels measured across individual hosts and microbes is correlated to individual d...
Preprint
Full-text available
The Amazon floodplains represent important surfaces of highly valuable ecosystems, yet they remain neglected from protected areas. While the efficiency of the protected area network of the Amazon basin may be jeopardised by climate change, floodplains are exposed to important consequences of climate change but are omitted from species distribution...
Article
Full-text available
Climate change and other global change drivers threaten plant diversity in mountains worldwide. A widely documented response to such environmental modifications is for plant species to change their elevational ranges. Range shifts are often idiosyncratic and difficult to generalize, partly due to variation in sampling methods. There is thus a need...
Article
Full-text available
Biodiversity is declining globally at unprecedented rates. Ecological niche models (ENMs) are one of the most widely used toolsets to appraise global change impacts on biodiversity. Here, we identify a variety of advantages of incorporating remotely sensed ecosystem functioning attributes (EFAs) into ENMs. The development of ENMs that explicitly in...
Preprint
The processes governing soil bacteria biogeography are still not fully understood. It remains unknown how the importance of environmental filtering and dispersal differs between bacterial taxonomic and functional biogeography, and whether their importance is scale-dependent. We sampled soils at 195 plots across the Tibet plateau, with distances amo...
Article
Full-text available
Aim The abundant centre hypothesis (ACH) predicts a negative relationship between species abundance and the distance to the geographical range centre. Since its formulation, empirical tests of the ACH have involved different settings (e.g. the distance to the ecological niche or to the geographical range centre), but studies found contrasting suppo...
Article
Full-text available
In Europe, agricultural practices have progressively evolved towards high productivity leading either to the intensification of productive and accessible areas or the abandonment of less profitable sites. Both processes have led to the degradation of semi‐natural habitats such as extensive grasslands, threatening species like the Eurasian Scops Owl...
Article
Full-text available
Protists are abundant and play key trophic functions in soil. Documenting how their trophic contributions vary across large environmental gradients is essential to understand and predict how biogeochemical cycles will be impacted by global changes. Here, using amplicon sequencing of environmental DNA in open habitat soil from 161 locations spanning...
Article
Full-text available
Aim Correlative species distribution models (SDMs) are among the most frequently used tools for conservation planning under climate and land use changes. Conservation‐focused climate change studies are often conducted on a national or local level and can use different sources of occurrence records (e.g., local databases, national biodiversity monit...
Article
Full-text available
In steep terrain, forests play an important role as natural means of protection against natural hazards, such as rockfall. Due to climate warming, significant changes in the protection service of these forests have to be expected in future. Shifts of current to more drought adapted species may result in temporary or even irreversible losses in the...
Preprint
Full-text available
Co-infections with multiple pathogens are common in the wild and may act as a strong selective pressure on both host and parasite evolution. Yet, contrary to single infection, the factors that shape co-infection risk are largely under-investigated. Here, we explored the extent to which bird ecology and phylogeny impact single and co-infection proba...
Preprint
Full-text available
Background The niche concept describes the range of conditions supporting the establishment and persistence of species in the environment. Although widely used in ecology, it has not been often applied to microbes, for which comparative niche analyses are still lacking. Yet, quantifying the niche of microbial taxa is necessary to forecast how taxa...
Preprint
Full-text available
Although widely used in ecology, comparative analyses of diversity and niche properties are still lacking for microorganisms, especially concerning niche variations. In this study, we identified important topoclimatic, edaphic, spatial and biotic drivers of the alpha and beta diversity of bacterial, archaeal, fungal and protist communities. Then, w...
Preprint
Full-text available
Climate change and other global change drivers threaten plant diversity in mountains worldwide. A widely documented response to such environmental modifications is for plant species to change their elevational ranges. Range shifts are often idiosyncratic and difficult to generalize, partly due to variation in sampling methods. There is thus a need...
Article
Full-text available
Many species distribution models (SDMs) are built with precise but geographically restricted presence-absence datasets (e.g. a country) where only a subset of the environmental conditions experienced by a species across its range is considered (i.e. spatial niche truncation). This type of truncation is worrisome because it can lead to incorrect pre...
Article
Full-text available
One key hypothesis explaining the fate of exotic species introductions posits that the establishment of a self-sustaining population in the invaded range can only succeed within conditions matching the native climatic niche. Yet, this hypothesis remains untested for individual release events. Using a dataset of 979 introductions of 173 mammal speci...
Preprint
Full-text available
In steep terrain, forests play an important role as natural means of protection against natural hazards, such as rockfall. Due to climate warming, significant changes in the protection service of these forests have to be expected in future. Shifts of current to more drought adapted species may result in temporary or even irreversible losses in the...
Article
Full-text available
Aim: Niche-based species distribution models (SDMs) have become a ubiquitous tool in ecology and biogeography. These models relate species occurrences with the environmental conditions found at these sites. Climatic variables are the most commonly used environmental data and are usually included in SDMs as averages of a reference period (30–50 year...
Article
Full-text available
Spatial autocorrelation (SAC) is a common feature of ecological data where observations tend to be more similar at some geographic distance(s) than expected by chance. Despite the implications of SAC for data dependencies, its impact on the performance of species distribution models (SDMs) remains controversial, with reports of both strong and negl...
Article
Full-text available
Soil bacteria are largely missing from future biodiversity assessments hindering comprehensive forecasts of ecosystem changes. Soil bacterial communities are expected to be more strongly driven by pH and less by other edaphic and climatic factors. Thus, alkalinisation or acidification along with climate change may influence soil bacteria, with subs...
Article
Full-text available
Forests below rocky cliffs often play a very important role in protecting settlements against rockfall. The structure and development of these forests are expected to be substantially affected by the disturbance of the falling rocks. Knowing about this effect is important to predict the development of protection forests and consider potential effec...
Article
Full-text available
Species distribution models (SDMs) constitute the most common class of models across ecology, evolution and conservation. The advent of ready‐to‐use software packages and increasing availability of digital geoinformation have considerably assisted the application of SDMs in the past decade, greatly enabling their broader use for informing conservat...
Article
Full-text available
Harsh winters are a characteristic element of Arctic ecosystems, yet the importance of winter conditions for Arctic plant communities is still underrepresented in climate change impact studies. Here, we use fine-scale microclimate data with plot-scale records of vascular plants, lichens and bryophytes from three Arctic areas, and show that topograp...
Article
Aim: Mounting evidence suggests that failure of species distribution models to integrate local adaptation hinders our ability to predict distribution ranges, raising the question of whether modelling should be performed at the level of species (clade models) or intraspecific lineages (subclade models), characterized by the restricted availability o...
Article
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The extent to which species can balance out the loss of suitable habitats due to climate warming by shifting their ranges is an area of controversy. Here, we assess whether highly efficient wind-dispersed organisms like bryophytes can keep-up with projected shifts in their areas of suitable climate. Using a hybrid statistical-mechanistic approach a...
Article
Full-text available
As anthropogenic degradation of biodiversity and ecosystems increases, so does the potential threat to the supply of ecosystem services, a key contribution of nature to people. Biodiversity has often been used in spatial conservation planning and has been regarded as one among multiple services delivered by ecosystems. Hence, biodiversity conservat...
Preprint
Full-text available
Why do some alien species introductions fail while others are successful? One key hypothesis is that in order for a species to invade a new range, it must initially establish successfully in conditions within its native climatic niche (NCN). Yet, this hypothesis has largely remained untested at the level of individual release events. Using a datase...
Article
Full-text available
Molecular technologies, such as metabarcoding, have become powerful tools for conservation purposes. Here, we present a non-invasive study analyzing the diet of one population of European pond turtle (Emys orbicularis) during its whole activity period and of four other populations during the same period, based on faecal sample, and using for the fi...
Article
Full-text available
Assessing the degree to which climate explains the spatial distributions of different taxonomic and functional groups is essential for anticipating the effects of climate change on ecosystems. Most effort so far has focused on aboveground organisms, which offer only a partial view on the response of biodiversity to environmental gradients. Here, in...
Article
Full-text available
Species distribution models (SDMs) are widely used to predict and study distributions of species. Many different modeling methods and associated algorithms are used and continue to emerge. It is important to understand how different approaches perform, particularly when applied to species occurrence records that were not gathered in struc­tured sur...
Article
Species range limits are expected to be dramatically altered under future climate change and many species are predicted to shift their distribution upslope to track their suitable conditions (i.e. based on their niche). However, there might be large discrepancies between the speed of the upward shift of the climatic niche and the actual migration v...
Article
Full-text available
Biological invasions are a major driver of human-induced global environmental change. This makes monitoring of potential spread, population changes and control measures necessary for guiding management. We illustrate the value of integrated methods (species distribution modelling (SDM), plant population monitoring and questionnaires) for monitoring...
Article
Full-text available
Species distribution models (SDMs) constitute the most common class of models across ecology, evolution and conservation. The advent of ready-to-use software packages and increasing availability of digital geoinformation have considerably assisted the application of SDMs in the past decade, greatly enabling their broader use for informing conservat...
Article
Full-text available
A comprehensive understanding of the scale‐dependency of environmental filtering and biotic interactions influencing the local assembly of species is paramount to derive realistic forecasts of the future of biodiversity and efficiently manage ecological communities. A classical assumption is that environmental filters are more prevalent at larger s...
Article
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Underpinnings of the distribution of allopolyploid species (hybrids with duplicated genome) along spatial and ecological gradients are elusive. As allopolyploid speciation combines the range of genetic and ecological characteristics of divergent diploids, allopolyploids initially show their additivity and are predicted to evolve differentiated ecol...
Article
Full-text available
A comprehensive understanding of the relationship between land cover, climate change, and disturbance dynamics is needed to inform scenarios of vegetation change on the African continent. Although significant advances have been made, large uncertainties exist in projections of future biodiversity and ecosystem change for the World’s largest tropica...
Article
Full-text available
Aims: Assessing climate change impacts on biodiversity is a main scientific challenge, especially in the tropics, therefore, we predicted the future of plant species and communities on the unique páramo sky islands. We implemented the Spatially Explicit Species Assemblage Modelling framework, by i) calculating species’ maximum dispersal distance, i...
Article
Full-text available
Intraspecific trait variation (ITV) within natural plant communities can be large, influencing local ecological processes and dynamics. Here, we shed light on how ITV in vegetative and floral traits responds to large‐scale abiotic and biotic gradients (i.e., climate and species richness). Specifically, we tested whether associations of ITV with tem...
Data
DOIs of occurrence data used for the ecological niche modeling of Aegilops species
Preprint
Full-text available
Aim: To assess if and how species' range size relates to range structure, if the observed geographic range properties can be retrieved from predicted maps based on species distribution modeling, and whether range properties are predictable from biogeophysical factors. Location: Europe. Time period: Current. Major taxa studied: 813 vascular plant sp...
Article
To investigate the potential of a large range of soil variables to improve topo‐climatic models of plant species distributions in a temperate mountain region encompassing complex relief. The western Swiss Alps. Fitting topo‐climatic models for >60 plant species across >250 sites with and without added soil predictor variables (>30). Testing include...
Article
Full-text available
Aim: Domestic animals first appeared in the archaeological record in northern Africa c. 9000 years before present and subsequently spread southwards throughout the continent. This geographic expansion is well studied and can broadly be explained in terms of the movement of pastoralist populations due to climate change. However, no studies have expl...
Article
Full-text available
Venomous animals use venom, a complex biofluid composed of unique mixtures of proteins and peptides, for either predation or defense. Bumblebees, which occur in various habitats due to their unique thermoregulatory properties, mainly use venom for defense. Herein, we conducted an exploratory analysis of the venom composition of a bumblebee species...
Article
Full-text available
Trends in spatial patterns of diversity in macroscopic organisms can be well predicted from correlative models, using topo‐climatic variables for plants and animals allowing inference over large scales. By contrast, diversity in soil microorganisms is generally considered as mostly driven by edaphic variables and, therefore, difficult to extrapolat...