Antoine Guisan

University of Lausanne | UNIL

Predicting the presence or absence (occurrence-state) of species in a certain area is highly important for conservation. Occurrence-state can be assessed by network models that take suitable habitat patches as nodes, connected by potential dispersal of species. To determine connections, a connectivity threshold is set at the species’ maximum disper...

Aim The diversity and distribution of soil microorganisms and their potential for long‐distance dispersal (LDD) are poorly documented, making the threats posed by climate change difficult to assess. If microorganisms do not disperse globally, regional endemism may develop and extinction may occur due to environmental changes. Here, we addressed thi...

Aim Eurasian grapevine (Vitis vinifera), one of the most important fruit crops worldwide, diverged from its wild and currently endangered relative (V. vinifera ssp. sylvestris) about 11,000 years ago. In the 19th century, detrimental phylloxera and disease outbreaks in Europe forced grapevine cultivation to use American Vitis species as rootstocks,...

Soil microbes play a key role in shaping terrestrial ecosystems. It is therefore essential to understand what drives their distributions. While multivariate analyses have been used to characterise microbial communities and drivers of their spatial patterns, few studies focused on modelling the distribution of Operational Taxonomic Units (OTUs). Her...

Epiphytes offer an appealing framework to disentangle the contributions of chance, biotic and abiotic drivers of species distributions. In the context of the stress‐gradient theory, we test the hypotheses that (i) deterministic ( i.e. , non‐random) factors play an increasing role in communities from young to old trees, (ii) negative biotic interact...

Monitoring of terrestrial and aquatic species assemblages at large spatial scales based on environmental DNA (eDNA) has the potential to enable evidence-based environmental policymaking. The spatial coverage of eDNA-based studies varies substantially, and the ability of eDNA metabarcoding to capture regional biodiversity remains to be assessed; thu...

Evidence for the need of shifting scales in biodiversity analyses under global change is mounting, raising the question of the variables operating at fine scales. We evaluated the extent to which community composition of one guild of land plants (bryophytes vs tracheophytes) can be predicted from abiotic variables, species composition and architect...

Aim Snow cover persistence (SCP) has significant effects on plants in high‐elevation ecosystems. It determines the length of the growing season, provides insulation against low temperatures and influences water availability, thereby shaping the vegetation mosaic. Despite its importance, SCP is rarely used in plant species distribution modelling. In...

The predictive power of species distribution models (SDMs) varies substantially among species depending on their ecological and life-history traits, but which of these traits are the most relevant and how they influence species ‘predictability' remains an area of debate. Here, we address these questions in bryophytes. SDMs employing macroclimatic,...

Addressing sustainability challenges in mountains requires multi-actorcollaboration and interdisciplinarity. Yet, such processes of knowledge co-creation need to account for the existence of diverse representations of mountain socio-ecological systems amongst actors. We build on literature and picture-based interviews with local actors to first exp...

Since the late 1990s, Nature’s Contributions to People (NCPs; i.e. ecosystem services) were used as a putative leverage for fostering nature preservation. NCPs have largely been defined and mapped at the landscape level using land use and cover classifications. However, NCP mapping attempts based directly on individual species are still uncommon. G...

Ecological processes are often spatially and temporally structured, potentially leading to autocorrelation either in environmental variables or species distribution data. Because of that, spatially-biased in-situ samples or predictors might affect the outcomes of ecological models used to infer the geographic distribution of species and diversity....

The environmental niche concept describes the distribution of a taxon in the environment and can be used to understand community dynamics, biological invasions, and the impact of environmental changes. The uses and applications are still restricted in microbial ecology, largely due to the complexity of microbial systems and associated methodologica...

The processes governing soil bacteria biogeography are still not fully understood. It remains unknown how the importance of environmental filtering and dispersal differs between bacterial taxonomic and functional biogeography, and whether their importance is scale-dependent. We sampled soils across the Tibet plateau, with distances among plots rang...

Predicting contemporary and future species distributions is relevant for science and decision making, yet the development of high-resolution spatial predictions for numerous taxonomic groups and regions is limited by the scalability of available modelling tools. Uniting species distribution modelling (SDM) techniques into one high-performance compu...

Sample size is a key issue in species distribution modelling. While many studies focused on the relevance of sample size for model calibration, the importance of the size of the dataset used for model evaluation has received much less attention. Here, we highlight two previously published approaches to address the problem, and which are relatively...

1. Selecting the best subset of covariates out of a panel of many candidates is a key and highly influential stage of the species distribution modelling process. Yet, there is currently no commonly accepted and widely adopted standard approach by which to perform this selection. 2. We introduce a two-step “embedded” covariate selection procedure a...

The predictive power of species distribution models (SDMs) substantially varies among species depending on their ecological and life-history traits, but which of these traits are the most relevant and how they influence species ‘predictability’ remains an area of debate. Here, we address these questions in bryophytes. SDMs were calibrated for 411 s...

Different host species associate with distinct gut microbes in mammals, a pattern sometimes referred to as phylosymbiosis. However, the processes shaping this host specificity are not well understood. One model proposes that barriers to microbial transmission promote specificity by limiting microbial dispersal between hosts. This model predicts tha...

Context Human-induced changes in landscape structure are among the main causes of biodiversity loss. Despite their important contribution to biodiversity and ecosystem functioning, microbes—and particularly protists—remain spatially understudied. Soil microbiota are most often driven by local soil properties, but the influence of the surrounding la...

Dans un contexte d’accroissement de la vulnérabilité des êtres humains et des sociétés humaines face au dérèglement climatique et à l’effondrement de la biodiversité, il devient indispensable de mener une réflexion approfondie sur les liens complexes qu’entretiennent l’environnement et notre santé. Appréhender un sujet aussi multidimensionnel néces...

Comparing the impacts of future scenarios is essential for developing and guiding the political sustainability agenda. This review-based analysis compares six IPBES scenarios for their impacts on 17 Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) and 20 biodiversity targets (Aichi targets) for the Europe and Central Asia regions. The comparison is based on a...

Epiphytes typically exhibit clustered distribution patterns, but predicting the spatial variation of their distribution at fine scales has long been a challenge. Taking advantage of a canopy crane giving access to 1.1 ha of lowland seasonal rainforest in Yunnan (China), we assess here which factors promote the probability that a given tree hosts ep...

The introduction of alien plant species can lead to biological invasions, which have major impacts on people and the environment. Trachycarpus fortunei (Hook.) H. Wendl. (Arecaceae) is an alien plant (palm tree) that has been introduced as an ornamental into urban areas across the world, but in many regions, it has started invading forests and othe...

Habitat suitability calculated from species distribution models (SDMs) has been used to assess population performance, but empirical studies have provided weak or inconclusive support to this approach. Novel approaches measuring population distances to niche centroid and margin in environmental space have been recently proposed to explain populatio...

Unsuitable livestock farming is considered as a main driver of biodiversity loss. In the high elevation areas across the world, many subalpine and alpine natural herbaceous communities are highly sensitive to sheep overgrazing. Such habitats of high biogeographic and conservation value are refugia for slow-growing, locally rare, and cold-adapted sp...

We used Arapaima as a model species to model its climate suitability and the level of protection of Amazon floodplains. We used open-source high-resolutoin climate and habitat predictors and recent modelling techniques. We identified severe protection gaps (70% of suitable areas for Arapaima are unprotected). This gap is predicted to worsen with cl...

To withstand the surge of species loss worldwide, (re)introduction of endangered plant species has become an increasingly common technique in conservation biology. Successful (re)introduction plans, however, require identifying sites that provide the optimal ecological conditions for the target species to thrive. In this study, we propose a two‐ste...

While conservation ecology was highlighted by the creation of the IUCN redlist in the 1960s, it was in the 1990s that conservationists and economists decided to integrate the services provided by nature to humans to increase motivations to conserve our environment, later renamed Nature ‘s contributions to people (NCP). Yet, conservation planning ha...

Species Distribution Models (SDMs) are essential tools for predicting climate change impact on species' distributions and are commonly employed as an informative tool on which to base management and conservation actions. Focusing only on a part of the entire distribution of a species for fitting SDMs is a common approach. Yet, geographically restri...

The Amazon floodplains represent important surfaces of highly valuable ecosystems, yet they remain neglected from protected areas. Although the efficiency of the protected area network of the Amazon basin may be jeopardized by climate change, floodplains are exposed to important consequences of climate change but are omitted from species distributi...

Regos A, Gonçalves J, Arenas-Castro S, Alcaraz-Segura D, Guisan A & Honrado JP (2022). Incorporating remotely sensed ecosystem functioning into species distribution models: limitations, advantages and future avenues. IALE 2022 European Landscape Ecology Congress Jul 11 – 15, 2022. Warsaw, Poland (Online).

Coprophagous beetles are essential for fecal matter removal and are thus considered key ecosystem services providers. Yet, our knowledge of these beetles' distribution and ecology remains very limited. Here, we used Species Distribution Models (SDM) to investigate the species-environment relationships (i.e. their niche) and predict the geographic d...

Mountains are hotspots of biodiversity and ecosystem services, but they are warming about twice as fast as the global average. Climate change may reduce alpine snow cover and increase vegetation productivity, as in the Arctic. Here, we demonstrate that 77% of the European Alps above the tree line experienced greening (productivity gain) and <1% bro...

Understanding the drivers of infection risk helps us to detect the most at-risk species in a community and identify species whose intrinsic characteristics could act as potential reservoirs of pathogens. This knowledge is crucial if we are to predict the emergence and evolution of infectious diseases. To date, most studies have only focused on infe...

Context Human-induced changes in landscape structure are among the main causes of biodiversity loss. However, despite their important contribution to biodiversity and ecosystem functioning, microbes – and particularly protists – remain spatially understudied. Furthermore, soil microbiota are most often related to the local soil properties, whereas...

Although widely used in ecology, comparative analyses of diversity and niche properties are still lacking for microorganisms, especially focusing on niche variations. Quantifying the niches of microbial taxa is necessary to then forecast how taxa and the communities they compose might respond to environmental changes. In this study, we first identi...

Different mammalian species host distinct gut microbes but the processes shaping this specificity are not well understood. One model proposes that barriers to microbial transmission promote specificity by limiting dispersal between hosts and predicts that specificity levels measured across individual hosts and microbes is correlated to individual d...

Biodiversity is declining globally at unprecedented rates. Ecological niche models (ENMs) are one of the most widely used toolsets to appraise global change impacts on biodiversity. Here, we identify a variety of advantages of incorporating remotely sensed ecosystem functioning attributes (EFAs) into ENMs. The development of ENMs that explicitly in...

Climate change and other global change drivers threaten plant diversity in mountains worldwide. A widely documented response to such environmental modifications is for plant species to change their elevational ranges. Range shifts are often idiosyncratic and difficult to generalize, partly due to variation in sampling methods. There is thus a need...

The Amazon floodplains represent important surfaces of highly valuable ecosystems, yet they remain neglected from protected areas. While the efficiency of the protected area network of the Amazon basin may be jeopardised by climate change, floodplains are exposed to important consequences of climate change but are omitted from species distribution...

The processes governing soil bacteria biogeography are still not fully understood. It remains unknown how the importance of environmental filtering and dispersal differs between bacterial taxonomic and functional biogeography, and whether their importance is scale-dependent. We sampled soils at 195 plots across the Tibet plateau, with distances amo...

Aim The abundant centre hypothesis (ACH) predicts a negative relationship between species abundance and the distance to the geographical range centre. Since its formulation, empirical tests of the ACH have involved different settings (e.g. the distance to the ecological niche or to the geographical range centre), but studies found contrasting suppo...

In Europe, agricultural practices have progressively evolved towards high productivity leading either to the intensification of productive and accessible areas or the abandonment of less profitable sites. Both processes have led to the degradation of semi‐natural habitats such as extensive grasslands, threatening species like the Eurasian Scops Owl...

Protists are abundant and play key trophic functions in soil. Documenting how their trophic contributions vary across large environmental gradients is essential to understand and predict how biogeochemical cycles will be impacted by global changes. Here, using amplicon sequencing of environmental DNA in open habitat soil from 161 locations spanning...

In steep terrain, forests play an important role as natural means of protection against natural hazards, such as rockfall. Due to climate warming, significant changes in the protection service of these forests have to be expected in future. Shifts of current to more drought adapted species may result in temporary or even irreversible losses in the...

Co-infections with multiple pathogens are common in the wild and may act as a strong selective pressure on both host and parasite evolution. Yet, contrary to single infection, the factors that shape co-infection risk are largely under-investigated. Here, we explored the extent to which bird ecology and phylogeny impact single and co-infection proba...

Background The niche concept describes the range of conditions supporting the establishment and persistence of species in the environment. Although widely used in ecology, it has not been often applied to microbes, for which comparative niche analyses are still lacking. Yet, quantifying the niche of microbial taxa is necessary to forecast how taxa...

Although widely used in ecology, comparative analyses of diversity and niche properties are still lacking for microorganisms, especially concerning niche variations. In this study, we identified important topoclimatic, edaphic, spatial and biotic drivers of the alpha and beta diversity of bacterial, archaeal, fungal and protist communities. Then, w...

Climate change and other global change drivers threaten plant diversity in mountains worldwide. A widely documented response to such environmental modifications is for plant species to change their elevational ranges. Range shifts are often idiosyncratic and difficult to generalize, partly due to variation in sampling methods. There is thus a need...

Many species distribution models (SDMs) are built with precise but geographically restricted presence-absence datasets (e.g. a country) where only a subset of the environmental conditions experienced by a species across its range is considered (i.e. spatial niche truncation). This type of truncation is worrisome because it can lead to incorrect pre...

Aim Correlative species distribution models (SDMs) are among the most frequently used tools for conservation planning under climate and land use changes. Conservation‐focused climate change studies are often conducted on a national or local level and can use different sources of occurrence records (e.g., local databases, national biodiversity monit...

One key hypothesis explaining the fate of exotic species introductions posits that the establishment of a self-sustaining population in the invaded range can only succeed within conditions matching the native climatic niche. Yet, this hypothesis remains untested for individual release events. Using a dataset of 979 introductions of 173 mammal speci...

In steep terrain, forests play an important role as natural means of protection against natural hazards, such as rockfall. Due to climate warming, significant changes in the protection service of these forests have to be expected in future. Shifts of current to more drought adapted species may result in temporary or even irreversible losses in the...

Spatial autocorrelation (SAC) is a common feature of ecological data where observations tend to be more similar at some geographic distance(s) than expected by chance. Despite the implications of SAC for data dependencies, its impact on the performance of species distribution models (SDMs) remains controversial, with reports of both strong and negl...

Soil bacteria are largely missing from future biodiversity assessments hindering comprehensive forecasts of ecosystem changes. Soil bacterial communities are expected to be more strongly driven by pH and less by other edaphic and climatic factors. Thus, alkalinisation or acidification along with climate change may influence soil bacteria, with subs...

Forests below rocky cliffs often play a very important role in protecting settlements against rockfall. The structure and development of these forests are expected to be substantially affected by the disturbance of the falling rocks. Knowing about this effect is important to predict the development of protection forests and consider potential effec...

Species distribution models (SDMs) constitute the most common class of models across ecology, evolution and conservation. The advent of ready‐to‐use software packages and increasing availability of digital geoinformation have considerably assisted the application of SDMs in the past decade, greatly enabling their broader use for informing conservat...

Aim: Niche-based species distribution models (SDMs) have become a ubiquitous tool in ecology and biogeography. These models relate species occurrences with the environmental conditions found at these sites. Climatic variables are the most commonly used environmental data and are usually included in SDMs as averages of a reference period (30–50 year...

Harsh winters are a characteristic element of Arctic ecosystems, yet the importance of winter conditions for Arctic plant communities is still underrepresented in climate change impact studies. Here, we use fine-scale microclimate data with plot-scale records of vascular plants, lichens and bryophytes from three Arctic areas, and show that topograp...

Aim: Mounting evidence suggests that failure of species distribution models to integrate local adaptation hinders our ability to predict distribution ranges, raising the question of whether modelling should be performed at the level of species (clade models) or intraspecific lineages (subclade models), characterized by the restricted availability o...