Ansgar H. Belke
In memory of

Ansgar H. Belke
University of Duisburg-Essen | uni-due

Professor Dr.

About

513
Publications
44,550
Reads
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6,742
Citations
Citations since 2017
81 Research Items
2487 Citations
20172018201920202021202220230100200300400
20172018201920202021202220230100200300400
20172018201920202021202220230100200300400
20172018201920202021202220230100200300400
Additional affiliations
September 2009 - present
European Parliament
Position
  • Monetary Experts Panel
April 2007 - present
University of Duisburg-Essen
Position
  • Professor for Macroeconomics und Director of the Institute for Business, Economics and Statistics (IBES)

Publications

Publications (513)
Article
This article introduces a new measure to capture safe haven flows for twelve Euro area countries. Since those flows are suspected to alter the natural rate of interest, which is at the heart of the discussion whether certain countries face a period of secular stagnation, we estimate the natural rate including those flows explicitly. It is shown tha...
Article
The interest rate is generally considered as an important driver of macroeconomic investment characterised by a particular form of path dependency, “hysteresis”. At the same time, the interest rate channel is a central ingredient of monetary policy transmission. In this context, we shed light on the issue (which currently is a matter of concern for...
Article
Full-text available
This paper examines the linkages between the trade of goods and financial assets. Do both flows behave as complements (implying a positive correlation) or as substitutes (negative correlation)? Although a classic topic in international macroeconomics, the empirical evidence has remained relatively scarce so far, in particular for the Euro area wher...
Article
Full-text available
The article analyzes the unstable equilibrium between further developing national monetary systems by means of (private/public) digital currencies while maintaining financial stability as secured by “tangible” store of values like notes/coins. Which are those elements of innovation improving today’s payments system? And, at the same time, which mod...
Article
The interest rate is an important monetary policy tool to steer investment to safeguard price stability. Knowledge about the exact shape of the interest rate-investment nexus is thus decisive for the European Central Bank’s efficacy. This is especially so in the currently observed low interest rate environment. We first present a theoretical framew...
Article
Purpose The paper explores the precarious balance between modernizing monetary systems by means of digital currencies (either issued by the central bank itself or independently) and safeguarding financial stability as also ensured by tangible payment (and saving) instruments like paper money. Design/methodology/approach Which aspects of modern pay...
Article
There is a symmetrical debate in two Euro area core countries: in France about the restrictive fiscal policy of Germany, leading to a huge external surplus, in Germany about the insufficient compliance with fiscal rules and the lack of structural reforms in France. What are the real causes of the divergence between the two economies? We show that d...
Chapter
Die Europäische Wirtschafts- und Währungsunion (EWWU) ist ein zentraler Bereich des europäischen Integrationsprozesses, deren Genese bis zur Gründung der Europäischen Wirtschaftsgemeinschaft zurückreicht. Mit den ersten Überlegungen des Werner-Plans über den Delors-Plan und den Vertrag von Maastricht hat die EU den Weg von den nationalen europäisch...
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Full-text available
Since the demise of the Bretton Woods system, the yen has seen several episodes of strong appreciation, including in the late 1970s, after the 1985 Plaza Agreement, the early and late 1990s and after 2008. These appreciations have not only been associated with “expensive yen recessions” resulting from negative effects on exports; since the late 198...
Article
This short article addresses several important (but less discussed) aspects of the introduction of central bank digital currency that give cause for concern, no matter whether such a currency is intended as a substitute or a complement to cash. It discusses potential effects, such as bank runs and capital flight, and analyzes possible interactions...
Article
Full-text available
Macroeconomic changes such as economic depression and stock market crashes can have an impact on private life, mood and attitudes toward individuals and, by this, on the macroeconomy. This paper deals with the mental health indicators depression and grief as a result of economic and financial crises. For this purpose, it refers to the seminal five...
Preprint
Full-text available
This article introduces a new measure to capture safe haven flows for twelve Euro area countries. Since those flows are suspected to alter the natural rate of interest, which is at the heart of the discussion whether certain countries face a period of secular stagnation, we estimate the natural rate including those flows explicitly. It is shown tha...
Article
Trade liberalisation has been a significant driver of globalisation over the past half century, but global trade has slowed in recent years. This paper argues that globalisation can also be driven by higher commodity prices, as commodities constitute a large fraction of global trade. This is reflected in trade volumes and commodity prices, which in...
Article
We estimate the equilibrium real interest rate for nine Euro area member countries and the Euro area as a whole using quarterly data from 1995 to 2015. We expand the standard model of estimating real equilibrium interest rates to incorporate the financial cycle for the private sector. We show that adding the financial cycle indeed alters the equili...
Chapter
Very recently, the European Institutions made progress on the Capital Markets Union (CMU). The CMU is part of the so called “Juncker-Plan” which aims to boost investment across Europe. In our contribution we focus on retirement savings and investment for growth aspects of the CMU. We find that Europeans indeed accumulate savings but do not invest a...
Article
The interest rate represents an important monetary policy tool to steer investment in order to reach price stability. Therefore, implications of the exact form and magnitude of the interest rate-investment nexus for the European Central Bank's effectiveness in a low interest rate environment gain center stage. We first present a theoretical framewo...
Article
The paper examines the bank lending activities of banks in a low interest rate environment. External financing of small- and medium-sized enterprises in the euro area primarily takes place via bank loans and not through capital markets. Based on the Bankscope database, bank balance sheet data is utilized. Control variables are included, such as for...
Article
Full-text available
This article compares two types of monetary policy rules-the Taylor-Rule and the Orphanides-Rule-with respect to their forecasting properties for the European Central Bank. In this respect the basic rules, results from estimates models and augmented rules are compared. Using quarterly real-time data from 1999 to the beginning of 2019, we find that...
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Against the background of the (at least partially) successfully overcome structural change in the Ruhrgebiet, this project analyses whether and to what extent Northern Greece, especially Central Macedonia with the city of Thessaloniki, can learn from the Ruhrgebiet when conducting the required structural reforms and coping with structural change. I...
Chapter
This chapter explores the impact of advanced countries’ quantitative easing on emerging market economies (EMEs) and how macroprudential policy and good governance play a role in preventing potential financial vulnerabilities. We use confidential locational bank statistics data from the Bank for International Settlements to examine whether quantitat...
Article
This paper identifies and measures fiscal spillovers in the EU countries empirically using a global vector autoregression (GVAR) model. Our aim was to look at the sign and the absolute values of fiscal spillovers in a countrywise perspective and at the time profile (impulse response) of the impacts of fiscal shocks. We find moderate spillover effec...
Article
Full-text available
Die Debatte über die Zukunft der Europäischen Wirtschafts- und Währungsunion ist in vollem Gang. Nach der Europarede des französischen Präsidenten an der Universität Sorbonne und den Vorschlägen der Kommission vom 6. Dezember 2017 sind erste Reformpfade beschrieben (vgl. Herzog 2018). Auch die Bundeskanzlerin hat nach langer Zurückhaltung in dieser...
Article
Purpose This paper estimates the role of policy and exchange rate uncertainty shocks for EU countries’ exports to the world economy. We examine the performance of the four biggest economies, namely Germany, France, Italy and the UK, under policy and exchange rate uncertainty in exports to some of the most important global export destinations (Unit...
Article
The financial crisis led to a deep recession in many industrial countries. While large emerging countries recovered relatively quickly, their performance deteriorated in recent years, despite the modest recovery in advanced economies. The higher divergence of business cycles is closely linked to the Chinese economy. During the crisis, the Chinese f...
Article
The strength of mutually reinforcing links between the demand and supply sides of the macroeconomy is an important issue for policymakers which has emerged from the financial crisis. The prevailing view that only cyclical policies influence the demand side, and structural policies affect the supply side has been challenged in two dimensions. Firstl...
Article
One of the most interesting questions for policymakers which have emerged from the financial crisis deals with the strength of links between the demand and supply sides of the economy. The traditional view that only cyclical policies influence the former, and structural policies the latter has been challenged in two ways: by the observation that lo...
Article
Full-text available
We adopt a Cointegrated Vector-Autoregressive (CVAR) model to analyze the long-run behavior and short-run dynamics of stock markets across five developed and three emerging economies. Our main aim is to check whether liquidity conditions play an important role for stock market developments. As an innovation, liquidity conditions enter the analysis...
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Brexit, the withdrawal of the United Kingdom (UK) from the European Union (EU), has led to significant exchange rate fluctuations and to uncertainty in financial markets and in UK–EU trade relations. In this article, we use a non-linear model to study how this uncertainty affects export companies. Exports tend to react in spurts when exchange rate...
Article
Estimating a large‐scale factor‐augmented vector autoregressive model for 18 Organisation for Economic Co‐operation and Development member countries, we quantify the global effects of economic policy uncertainty shocks. More specifically, we check whether the signs, the magnitude, and the persistence profile are consistent with the literature on th...
Article
Full-text available
To better understand the convergence process prior and since the European financial and debt crisis, we scrutinize the role of capital flows for competitiveness in Greece and a set of six other euro area member countries (Portugal, Latvia, Estonia, Lithuania, Slovenia and the Slovak Republic). For this purpose the paper extends the seminal Balassa–...
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At the outset of the Great Recession emerging in 2007, central banks of major-currency economies have adopted non-standard monetary policies. We examine whether and to what extent these measures pose a challenge to central banking in emerging and small open economies. In particular we assess how global liquidity spillovers caused by major central b...
Article
One of the most significant new developments in the global post-crisis economy is the implementation of various unconventional monetary policies (UMP) by major central banks in the advanced countries with the ECB being not an exception. We summarize the evidence on international effects of the ECB’s unconventional monetary policy, which has been st...
Article
This paper reviews cases of successful price and wage adjustment, which are often regarded as constituting best practice, Australia, Latvia and the newly-formed German states and contrasts them with the Greek experience under the Troika Program. Latvia stands out as having had the quickest adjustment in wages. By contrast, before the crisis, Greek...
Article
This paper aims at establishing empirical facts on the fundamental determinants of real estate prices. It contributes to the literature by analysing a unique panel dataset covering a wide range of real estate market data and other economic variables for nearly 100 German cities. Several robust fundamental determinants are identified, among them the...
Article
This study assesses the impact of the Brexit probability on both the UK and on international financial markets, for the first and the second statistical moments. As financial markets are by nature highly interlinked, one might expect that the uncertainty engendered by Brexit also has an impact on financial markets in several other countries. We fir...
Article
This article explores the extent to which changes to long-term interest rates in major advanced economies have influenced long-term government bond yields in emerging Asia. To gauge long-term interest spillover effects, the article uses vector autoregressive (VAR) variance decompositions with high frequency data. Our results reveal that sovereign b...
Preprint
Full-text available
Is the Euro area as a whole, or are individual Euro-area member countries facing a period of sustained lower economic growth, a phenomenon known as secular stagnation? We tackle this question by estimating equilibrium real interest rates and comparing them to actual real rates. Since the financial crisis has altered the degree of leverage in severa...
Article
If one is concerned with the effects of zero interest rate policy, it is obvious to ask about the success of unconventional monetary policy in the form of "Quantitative Easing" (QE). The success is usually measured by advocates of these measures by the induced extent of the interest rate reduction in the long run (the short-term interest rate is al...
Article
Ultra-low interest rates have become an endemic and potentially problematic characteristic of the global economy. Central banks in the euro area, the United States, Japan and Australia have bet on lowering interest rates to increase inflation, but despite their efforts, core inflation remains stubbornly below the desired two per cent. However, cent...
Article
This paper considers a range of important issues concerning the transparency and accountability of central banks with particular emphasis on the so-called monetary Dialogue, i.e., the regular appearances of the President of the European Central Bank (ECB) before the European Parliament (EP). In order to highlight the key issues of central bank comm...
Chapter
This chapter evaluates the effect of the uncertainty triggered by Brexit on the UK and international financial markets. Due to the strong linkages of financial markets, the uncertainty created by Brexit should impact several national financial markets. While analysing the effect of Brexit on financial markets, we might also gain some knowledge abou...
Chapter
This paper takes a critical look at the Fiscal Compact as a key element of the future EU governance. It shows that the “Excessive Deficit Procedure (EDP)” is representing an Achilles heel of the fiscal pact. We put a finger in a wound that has been neglected up to now, probably because it has evaded daily politics analysis as a statistical-economet...
Article
The paper empirically estimates the financial transmission within and across bond and equity markets in the four largest global financial markets - the United States, the Euro area, Japan, and the United Kingdom. We argue that international bond and equity markets are highly interconnected both within and across asset classes in a globalized world,...
Article
Full-text available
This paper examines business cycle synchronization in the European Monetary Union with a special focus on the core-periphery pattern in the aftermath of the crisis. Using a quarterly index for business cycle synchronization by Cerqueira (Int Econ Econ Policy 10(3):349–363, 2013), our panel data estimates suggest that it is countries belonging to th...
Article
In light of the rising political and economic uncertainty in Europe, we aim to provide a basic understanding of the impact of policy and stock market uncertainty on a set of macroeconomic variables such as production and investment. In this paper, we apply a structural vector autoregressive (SVAR) model to gain first insights that may help to ident...
Article
We argue that, under certain conditions described by a sunk cost hysteresis model, firms consider exports as a substitute for domestic demand. This is valid also on the macroeconomic level where the switch from the domestic market to the export market and vice versa takes place in a smooth manner. Areas of weak reaction of exports to changes in dom...
Chapter
erläutern, was man unter dem Transmissionsmechanismus der Geldpolitik versteht und diesen darstellen.
Chapter
die Funktionen des Geldes zu benennen und zu erläutern, warum die Verwendung von Geld als allgemein akzeptiertes Zahlungsmittel den Wirtschaftsablauf stark vereinfacht.
Chapter
die unterschiedlichen Theorien der Geldnachfrage darstellen und die Unterschiede aufzeigen.
Chapter
dass die internationalen Zentralbanken in der Regel Preisniveaustabilität als oberstes Ziel verfolgen.
Chapter
zu erklären, warum sich Zentralbanken einer mehr oder weniger großen Unsicherheit gegenübersehen.
Article
This paper assesses the economic implications of the United Kingdom (UK) leaving the European Union (EU). The basic data on trade in goods and services and investment between the two parties suggest that the cost of “Brexit” could be substantial. Trade between the UK and the EU-27 is large and of a similar order of magnitude as transatlantic trade...
Article
A high degree of correlation among the business cycles of individual countries is usually seen as a key criterion for an optimum currency area. However, the elasticity with which countries react to the common cycle is equally important. A country with a non-unitary growth elasticity relative to the common area will experience cyclical divergences a...
Article
Is secular stagnation – a period of persistently lower growth such as that seen following the financial crisis of 2008–09 – a valid concern for euro-area countries? We tackle this question using the well-established Laubach-Williams model to estimate the unobservable equilibrium real interest rate and compare it to the actual real rate. In light of...
Article
Mit der neuen Präsidentschaft in den USA sind Richtungswechsel auf verschiedenen Gebieten verbunden: Prominent ist dabei die Handelspolitik, die durch Strafzölle, aber auch durch die importbelastende Cashflow-Steuer mit Grenzausgleich und einen schwachen US-Dollar der heimischen Industrie Wettbewerbsvorteile verschaffen soll. Multilaterale Regeln i...
Article
What to do when a country experiences a sudden stop in capital inflows and has to adjust externally? Sticky wages make adjustment to an external imbalance more difficult within a monetary union. Periods of high unemployment are usually necessary to achieve the required real depreciation (internal devaluation). Gradual adjustment is usually recommen...
Article
This paper explores the effects of non-standard monetary policies on international yield relationships. We first document that long-term rates followed a common global downward trend that had already manifested itself prior to the financial crisis. The bond-buying operations (commonly dubbed Quantitative Easing (QE)) of the US Federal Reserve did n...
Article
Deviations of policy interest rates from the levels implied by the Taylor rule have been persistent before the financial crisis and increased especially after the turn of the century. Compared to the Taylor benchmark, policy rates were often too low. This paper provides evidence that both international spillovers, for instance international depende...
Article
This paper reconsiders the policy trilemma in an open economy by incorporating political economy concerns. We argue that the impact of government ideology on monetary independence, exchange rate stability, and capital flow restrictions should be analyzed in the broader context of restrictions imposed by the impossible trinity instead of the usual s...
Article
Die Macroeconomic Imbalance Procedure (MIP) ist Bestandteil des Regelwerks, das am 13. Dezember 2011 als sogenanntes „Sixpack“ in Reaktion auf die europäische Finanz- und Schuldenkrise in Kraft trat. Die Krise hat gezeigt, dass interne und externe Ungleichgewichte eng miteinander verwoben sind. Die MIP soll externe Ungleichgewichte bereits in einem...
Article
We analyze the benefits and costs of a non-euro country opting-in to the banking union. The decision to opt-in depends on the comparison between the assessment of the banking union attractiveness and the robustness of a national safety net. The benefits of opting-in are for now only potential and uncertain, while costs are more tangible. Due to tre...
Article
Full-text available
Since the start of EMU (Economic and Monetary Union), the euro area, and more broadly the global economy, experienced an unprecedented credit boom. The expansion of credit was particularly strong in Greece, Ireland, Portugal and Cyprus and all of them subsequently needed official financial support. In each of the four programmes, financial assistan...
Article
Full-text available
Is secular stagnation a valid concern for Euro Area countries? We tackle this question using the well-established Laubach-Williams model to estimate the unobservable equilibrium real interest rate and compare it to the actual real rate. We apply our approach to twelve Euro Area countries, since heterogeneity among member countries has become consid...
Article
This study investigates the shock-absorbing properties of a banking union by providing a detailed comparison between the way regional financial shocks have been absorbed at the federal level in the United States, but have led to severe regional (national) financial dislocation and tensions in the euro area. The extent to which the institutions of t...
Article
We develop some main characteristics of a roadmap of how the European Central Bank (ECB) should further reduce the volume of its balance sheets and roll back credit easing in order to prevent inflation. The exit should be step-by-step rather than a one-off. Communicating about the exit strategy must be an integral part of the strategy. Price stabil...
Article
Full-text available
In this paper a non-linear model is applied, where suddenly strong spurts of exports occur when changes of the exchange rate go beyond a zone of inaction, which we call “play” area—analogous to mechanical play. We implement an algorithm describing path-dependent play-hysteresis into a regression framework. The hysteretic impact of real exchange rat...
Article
The financial crisis affected regions in Europe in a different magnitude. This is why we examine whether regions which incorporate banks with a higher intermediation quality grow faster in “normal” times and are more resilient in “bad” ones. For this purpose, we measure the intermediation quality of a bank by estimating its profit and cost efficien...
Article
Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to analyse the effect of financial integration on several macroeconomic variables from a global perspective. Design/methodology/approach – The authors apply a cointegrated vector autoregression model using quarterly data for 1980-2009. Analysing the interactions of globally aggregated measures capturing cross...
Article
The financial crisis led to a deep recession in many industrial countries. While large emerging countries recovered relatively quickly from the financial crisis, their performance deteriorated in the last years, despite the modest recovery in advanced economies. The higher divergence of business cycles is closely linked to the Chinese transformatio...
Article
This study investigates the shock-absorbing properties of a banking union by providing a detailed comparison between the way regional financial shocks have been absorbed at the federal level in the US, but have led to severe regional (national) financial dislocation and tensions in the euro area. The extent to which the institutions of the banking...